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Invasive rodents are usually eradicated from islands through the application of chemical toxicants that can harm surrounding ecosystems. A recently proposed alternative involves engineering a house mouse ( Mus musculus ) to carry a genetic construct that would cause a majority of its offspring to be male, many of which would be sterile. Releasing these genetically engineered mice to interbreed with an invasive population would reduce the number of fertile female mice until no more remain. We constructed a mathematical model to analyze the population dynamics of eradication with this genetically engineered mouse and determined its eradication efficiency through model analysis and simulations. Because genetically engineered mice would likely have a fitness disadvantage compared to wild mice, we found that they would need to be repeatedly released into the population to ensure complete eradication. However, if genetically engineered mice have a substantial survival advantage, we determined that the genetic construct could theoretically spread and eradicate a population after a single pulsed release onto the target island or after an engineered mouse escapes to a non‐target location. Also, while the species specificity of genetic engineering avoids some of the non‐target impacts of traditional eradication methods, ecological impacts could manifest indirectly. We compared several metrics to estimate potential transient impacts on the ecosystem and found that there is a trade‐off between the speed of an eradication and the intensity of increased disruptive ecological interactions. Together, our results can inform safe and efficient ecological practices for eradication with developing genetic engineering technology.

We are a group of non‐Indigenous and Indigenous scientists, culture bearers, and natural resource managers who came together with the aid of a boundary‐spanning organization to conduct research to support climate‐resilient ecological and cultural restoration carried out by the Tribal communities of southern California. Climate change and other environmental harms caused by human industrial activities disproportionately burden communities that have contributed the least to the problem. Addressing the environmental injustices wrought by climate change requires relationships between Indigenous peoples and other entities in society that are built on consent, trust, accountability, and reciprocity—qualities that are historically lacking in Western academic institutions. Therefore, co‐designed and co‐led research with Indigenous communities is desired to achieve equal collaboration in building deeper environmental understanding and implementing management strategies that reflect shared priorities between Western conservation agendas and Tribal Nations. In this paper, we share foundational principles for meaningful engagement and implementing community‐led climate adaptation planning that centers Tribal community partners and the core tenets of respect, responsibility, reciprocity, and relationships. We describe our project aimed at advancing a model for Indigenous‐led climate adaptation in Southern California, USA, focused on restoring resilient ecological communities, and reflect on lessons learned by researchers and environmental stewards about co‐creation of climate futures from this collaboration. These reflections inform and improve our collaborative framework so that it can be applied more widely. This paper describes a project aimed at advancing a model for Indigenous‐led climate adaptation in Southern California, USA, focused on restoring resilient ecological communities, and reflect on lessons learned by researchers and environmental stewards about coproduction of climate futures from this collaboration. We share foundational principles for meaningful engagement and implementing community‐led climate adaptation planning that centers Tribal community partners and the core tenets of respect, responsibility, reciprocity, and relationships.

Gene drive technology could allow the intentional spread of a desired gene throughout an entire wild population in relatively few generations. However, there are major concerns that gene drives could either fail to spread or spread without restraint beyond the targeted population. One potential solution is to use more localized threshold-dependent drives, which only spread when they are released in a population above a critical frequency. However, under certain conditions, small changes in gene drive fitness could lead to divergent outcomes in spreading behavior. In the face of ecological uncertainty, the inability to estimate gene drive fitness in a real-world context could prove problematic because gene drives designed to be localized could spread to fixation in neighboring populations if ecological conditions unexpectedly favor the gene drive. This perspective offers guidance to developers and managers because navigating gene drive spread and controllability could be risky without detailed knowledge of ecological contexts.

The importance of dispersal rates and distances has long been appreciated by ecologists and evolutionary biologists. An emerging field of research is revealing how temporal variation in dispersal can substantially influence ecological and evolutionary outcomes. We review how dispersal rates can temporally vary substantially in many ecosystems, a pattern that is particularly well‐documented for aquatic organisms but is likely pervasive in terrestrial ecosystems as well. We then synthesize the effects of temporal variation in dispersal on five key ecological and evolutionary processes: 1) metapopulation dynamics, 2) local adaptation, 3) range limits and range expansions, 4) species coexistence and 5) metacommunity dynamics. Our review demonstrates that temporal variation in dispersal is more than just statistical ‘noise' but can in fact lead to different outcomes than expected were dispersal temporally constant. For example, increasing the magnitude of temporal variation in dispersal can lead to lower metapopulation growth rates, permit greater local adaptation, facilitate and accelerate range expansion, increase regional coexistence, and alter local and regional species diversity. These effects of temporal variation in dispersal can inform conservation and natural resource management decisions such as prioritization in spatial planning, management of spillover from domesticated or captive populations into native populations, and the design of effective control strategies for invasive species.

Aim The role of species' demography and geography can be difficult to disentangle when projecting future population decline under global change. By constructing and combining species‐specific ecological models for plants in a fire‐prone Mediterranean‐type ecosystem, we explored how demography and geography can differentially affect population projections of plant species in the coming century. Location California, USA. Methods We developed a set of linked demographic‐distribution models for six Californian plant species, representing a range of life history characteristics found in the California Floristic Province. These ecological models simulate stochastic population dynamics to show how plant species might differentially respond to geographic patterns in climate change and fire regime scenarios when considering species‐specific traits. By integrating each combination of species‐specific demographic model with each of the other species' distribution models, we assessed the role of habitat loss and demographic constraints in the population declines of these plants. Results We found that all species experienced substantial population decline by 2085 under our simulations, with total species' abundances primarily influenced by habitat loss from climate and land‐use change. Species' demography had a larger influence on subpopulation‐level dynamics, especially in areas predicted to have frequent wildfires. Main Conclusions Our research underscores that responses to climate change are shaped by the interplay between species‐specific demography and geographic distribution. Though species distribution models may be able to predict changes in which areas will be suitable throughout species' theoretical niche limits, species‐specific population dynamics are critical to projecting how populations might change in abundance at more local scales. Conservation decisions should integrate both geographic and demographic factors to effectively address climate‐induced threats at both regional and local scales.

Since the work of Alfred Russel Wallace, biologists have sought to divide the world into biogeographic regions that reflect the history of continents and evolution. These divisions not only guide conservation efforts, but are also the fundamental reference point for understanding the distribution of life. However, the biogeography of human-associated species-such as pathogens, crops, or even house guests-has been largely ignored or discounted. As pathogens have the potential for direct consequences on the lives of humans, domestic animals, and wildlife it is prudent to examine their potential biogeographic history. Furthermore, if distinct regions exist for human-associated pathogens, it would provide possible connections between human wellbeing and pathogen distributions, and, more generally, humans and the deep evolutionary history of the natural world. We tested for the presence of biogeographic regions for diseases of humans due to pathogens using country-level disease composition data and compared the regions for vectored and non-vectored diseases. We found discrete biogeographic regions for diseases, with a stronger influence of biogeography on vectored than non-vectored diseases. We also found significant correlations between these biogeographic regions and environmental or socio-political factors. While some biogeographic regions reflected those already documented for birds or mammals, others reflected colonial history. From the perspective of diseases caused by pathogens, humans have altered but not evaded the influence of ancient biogeography. This work is the necessary first step in examining the biogeographic relationship between humans and their associates.

This work was supported by the National Science Foundation (grant no. 1655475).

Climate refugia are areas where species can persist through climate change with little to no movement. Among the factors associated with climate refugia are high spatial heterogeneity, such that there is only a short distance between current and future optimal climates, as well as biotic or abiotic environmental factors which buffer against variability in time. However, climate refugia may be declining due to anthropogenic homogenization of environments and degradation of environmental buffers. To quantify the potential for restoration of refugia-like environmental conditions to increase population persistence under climate change, we simulated a population's capacity to track increasing temperatures over time given different levels of spatial and temporal variability in temperature. To determine how species traits affected the efficacy of restoring heterogeneity, we explored an array of values for species' dispersal ability, thermal tolerance, and fecundity. We found that species were more likely to persist in environments with higher local heterogeneity and lower environmental stochasticity. When simulating a management action that increased the local heterogeneity of a previously homogenized environment, species were more likely to persist through climate change, and population sizes were generally higher, but there was little effect with mild temperature change. The benefits of heterogeneity restoration were greatest for species with limited dispersal ability. In contrast, species with longer dispersal but lower fecundity were more likely to benefit from a reduction in environmental stochasticity than an increase in spatial heterogeneity. Our results suggest that restoring environments to refugia-like conditions could promote species' persistence under climate change in addition to conservation strategies such as assisted migration, corridors, and increased protection. Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. Footnotes * https://github.com/gabackus/restoringClimateRefugia

Many species are shifting their ranges to keep pace with climate change, but habitat fragmentation and limited dispersal could impede these range shifts. In the case of climate-vulnerable foundation species such as tropical reef corals and temperate forest trees, such limitations might put entire communities at risk of extinction. Restoring connectivity through corridors, stepping-stones, or enhanced quality of existing patches could prevent the extinction of several species, but dispersal-limited species might not benefit if other species block their dispersal. Alternatively, managers might relocate vulnerable species between habitats through assisted migration, but this is generally a species-by-species approach. To evaluate the relative efficacy of these strategies, we simulated the climate-tracking of species in randomized competitive metacommunities with alternative management interventions. We found that corridors and assisted migration were the most effective strategies at reducing extinction. Assisted migration was especially effective at reducing the extinction likelihood for short-dispersing species, but it often required moving several species repeatedly. Assisted migration was more effective at reducing extinction in environments with higher stochasticity, and corridors were more effective at reducing extinction in environments with lower stochasticity. We discuss the application of these approaches to an array of systems ranging from tropical corals to temperate forests. Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. Footnotes * https://github.com/gabackus/comparingManagementStrategies.

Many tree species might be threatened with extinction because they cannot disperse or adapt quickly enough to keep pace with climate change. One potential, and potentially risky, strategy to mitigate this threat is assisted migration, the intentional movement of species to facilitate population range shifts to more climatically suitable locations under climate change. The ability for assisted migration to minimize risk and maximize conservation and forestry outcomes depends on a multi-faceted decision process for determining, what, where, and how much to move. To quantify how the benefits and risks of assisted migration could affect the decision-making process, we used a dynamical vegetation model parameterized with 23 tree species in the western United States. We found that most of the modeled species are likely to experience a substantial decline in biomass, potentially facing regional extinction by 2100 under the high-emission SSP5-85 climate-change scenario. Though simulations show assisted migration had little effect on the forestry goal of total biomass across all species, its effects on the conservation goal of promoting individual species' persistence were far more substantial. Among eight assisted migration strategies we tested that differ in terms of life cycle stage of movement and target destination selection criteria, the approach that conserved the highest biomass for individual species involved relocating target seedlings to areas with the highest canopy openness. Although this strategy significantly reduced extinction risk for six at-risk species compared to no action, it also slightly reduced biomass of four species, due to increasing competition. Species with relatively weak tolerance to drought, fire or high temperature were the most likely candidate groups for assisted migration. This model framework could be applied to other forest ecosystems to evaluate the efficacy of assisted migration globally. Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. Footnotes * https://github.com/Yibiaozou/UCDavis_Forest_AM