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Detailed large-scale information on mammal distribution has often been lacking, hindering conservation efforts. We used the information from the 2009 IUCN Red List of Threatened Species as a baseline for developing habitat suitability models for 5027 out of 5330 known terrestrial mammal species, based on their habitat relationships. We focused on the following environmental variables: land cover, elevation and hydrological features. Models were developed at 300 m resolution and limited to within species' known geographical ranges. A subset of the models was validated using points of known species occurrence. We conducted a global, fine-scale analysis of patterns of species richness. The richness of mammal species estimated by the overlap of their suitable habitat is on average one-third less than that estimated by the overlap of their geographical ranges. The highest absolute difference is found in tropical and subtropical regions in South America, Africa and Southeast Asia that are not covered by dense forest. The proportion of suitable habitat within mammal geographical ranges correlates with the IUCN Red List category to which they have been assigned, decreasing monotonically from Least Concern to Endangered. These results demonstrate the importance of fine-resolution distribution data for the development of global conservation strategies for mammals.

To address the ongoing global biodiversity crisis, governments have set strategic objectives and have adopted indicators to monitor progress toward their achievement. Projecting the likely impacts on biodiversity of different policy decisions allows decision makers to understand if and how these targets can be met. We projected trends in two widely used indicators of population abundance Geometric Mean Abundance, equivalent to the Living Planet Index and extinction risk (the Red List Index) under different climate and land‐use change scenarios. Testing these on terrestrial carnivore and ungulate species, we found that both indicators decline steadily, and by 2050, under a Business‐as‐usual (BAU) scenario, geometric mean population abundance declines by 18–35% while extinction risk increases for 8–23% of the species, depending on assumptions about species responses to climate change. BAU will therefore fail Convention on Biological Diversity target 12 of improving the conservation status of known threatened species. An alternative sustainable development scenario reduces both extinction risk and population losses compared with BAU and could lead to population increases. Our approach to model species responses to global changes brings the focus of scenarios directly to the species level, thus taking into account an additional dimension of biodiversity and paving the way for including stronger ecological foundations into future biodiversity scenario assessments.

Conservation efforts should target the few remaining areas of the world that represent outstanding examples of ecological integrity and aim to restore ecological integrity to a much broader area of the world with intact habitat and minimal species loss while this is still possible. There have been many assessments of “intactness” in recent years but most of these use measures of anthropogenic impact at a site, rather than faunal intactness or ecological integrity. This paper makes the first assessment of faunal intactness for the global terrestrial land surface and assesses how many ecoregions have sites that could qualify as Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs – sites contributing significantly to the global persistence of biodiversity) based on their outstanding ecological integrity (under KBA Criterion C). Three datasets are combined on species loss at sites to create a new spatially explicit map of numbers of species extirpated. Based on this map it is estimated that no more than 2.9% of the land surface can be considered to be faunally intact. Additionally, using habitat/density distribution data for 15 large mammals we also make an initial assessment of areas where mammal densities are reduced, showing a further decrease in surface area to 2.8% of the land surface that could be considered functionally intact. Only 11% of the functionally intact areas that were identified are included within existing protected areas, and only 4% within existing KBAs triggered by other criteria. Our findings show that the number of ecoregions that could qualify as Criterion C KBAs could potentially increase land area up to 20% if their faunal composition was restored with the reintroduction of 1–5 species. Hence, if all necessary requirements are met in order to reintroduce species and regain faunal integrity, this will increase ecological integrity across much of the area where human impacts are low (human footprint ≤4). Focusing restoration efforts in these areas could significantly increase the area of the planet with full ecological integrity.

Generation length (GL) is defined as the average age of parents of the current cohort, reflecting the turnover rate of breeding individuals in a population. GL is a fundamental piece of information for population ecology as well as for measuring species threat status (e.g. in the IUCN Red List). Here we present a dataset including GL records for all extant mammal species (n=5427). We first reviewed all data on GL published in the IUCN Red List database. We then calculated a value for species with available reproductive parameters (reproductive life span and age at first reproduction). We assigned to missing-data species a mean GL value from congeneric or confamilial species (depending on data availability). Finally, for a few remaining species, we assigned mean GL values from species with similar body mass and belonging to the same order. Our work provides the first attempt to complete a database of GL for mammals; it will be an essential reference point for all conservation-related studies that need pragmatic information on species GL, such as population dynamics and applications of the IUCN Red List assessment.

Dispersal distance in mammals is a fundamental information for several ecological and conservation applications. Although dispersal can depend on many intrinsic and extrinsic factors, in recent years many studies have shown that it scales with body size and home range area. However, the role of further ecological correlates to distance travelled is still unclear and the predictive models proposed so far have suffered from small sample size and lack of error estimates. This reduces the practical relevance of the models for ecological and conservation applications. We conducted a comprehensive meta-analysis on 327 studies on the dispersal of 164 mammal species, and performed linear and non-linear regression analyses to explore the relationships of body size and home range area with dispersal distance. We tested the effect of various life history traits and ecological factors on the relationships and performed a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the robustness of the models to sample size. The linear relationships of both home range and body size with dispersal distance were influenced by various life history traits and ecological factors. We developed allometric functions to estimate species dispersal distance based on different predictors and life history traits. Linear models representing the relationship between dispersal distance and body size or home range area received good support; however logistic models better approximates both relationships. Despite receiving less support than a logistic curve, a linear model between dispersal and home range is a good approximation for applicative purposes. Sensitivity analysis showed that our results are robust to subsampling of the original dataset until a sample of 40 species. Our empirical models have the potential to improve theoretical and applied population biology studies by extending the applicability and improving the accuracy of dispersal distance estimation to a large number of mammals.

Efforts to designate priority areas for conservation have had a long history, with most modern initiatives focused on either designating areas important for biodiversity or those least impacted by direct human disturbance. Ecologically intact ecosystems are becoming increasingly limited on the planet, making their identification and conservation an important priority. Intact forest landscapes (IFL) are defined as forests that are mainly free of significant anthropogenic degradation and at least 500 km2 in size. Here we define a new metric, the Last of the Wild in each Ecoregion (LWE), as a preliminary scoping of the most intact parts of each ecoregion. IFL and LWE are approaches among a broad family of techniques to mapping ecological integrity at the global scale. Although both implicitly include species integrity as a dimension of intactness, this is inferred rather than directly measured. We assessed whether IFL or LWE areas were better at capturing species where they are most abundant using species distribution data for a set of forest species for which range-wide data were available and human activity limits the range. We found that IFL and LWE methods identified areas where species we assessed are either absent or at too low an abundance to be ecologically functional. As such many IFL/LWE polygons did not have intact fauna. We also show that 54.7% of the terrestrial realm (excluding Antarctica) has at least one species recorded as extinct and that two thirds of IFL/LWE areas overlap with areas where species have gone extinct in the past 500 years. The results show that even within the most remote areas, serious faunal loss has taken place at many localities so direct species survey work is also needed to confirm faunal intactness.

[...]there is the concern that the documented loss of one species in our paper excludes a site as having full ecological integrity. [...]77.3% of the loss encompasses large-bodied species, which regularly serve as ecosystem engineers. [...]scientific evidence also shows that medium and small mammals can also have significant impacts on ecological function, like seed predation and dispersal, with knock-on effects on vegetation dynamics and the carbon cycle (Colman et al., 2014; Mills and Letnic, 2018; Schmitz et al., 2018; Gardner et al., 2019). [...]using 1,500 CE as a baseline reference date falls within a period, which allows for assessment of the current condition of ecosystems relative to their pre-industrial baseline states.

Aim Habitat loss and degradation are the factors threatening the largest number of amphibian species. However, quantitative measures of habitat availability only exist for a small subset of them. We evaluated the relationships between habitat availability, extinction risk and drivers of threat for the world's amphibians. We developed deductive habitat suitability models to estimate the extent of suitable habitat and the proportion of suitable habitat (PSH) inside the geographic range of each species, covering species and areas for which little or no high-resolution distribution data are available. Location Global. Methods We used information on habitat preferences to develop habitat suitability models at 300-m resolution, by integrating range maps with land cover and elevation. Model performance was assessed by comparing model output with point localities where species were recorded. We then used habitat availability as a surrogate of area of occupancy. Using the IUCN criteria, we identified species having narrow area of occupancy, for which extinction risk is likely underestimated. Results We developed models for 5363 amphibians. Validation success of models was high (94%), being better for forest specialists and generalists than for open habitat specialists. Generalists had proportionally more habitat than forest or open habitat specialists. The PSH was lower for species having small geographical ranges, currently listed as threatened, and for which habitat loss is recognized as a threat. Differences in habitat availability among biogeographical realms were strong. We identified 61 forest species for which the extinction risk may be higher that currently assessed in the Red List, due to limited extent of suitable habitat. Main conclusions Habitat models can accurately predict amphibian distribution at fine scale and allow describing biogeographical patterns of habitat availability. The strong relationship between amount of suitable habitat and extinction threat may help the conservation assessment in species for which limited information is currently available.

Spatial data on species distributions are available in two main forms, point locations and distribution maps (polygon ranges and grids). The first are often temporally and spatially biased, and too discontinuous, to be useful (untransformed) in spatial analyses. A variety of modelling approaches are used to transform point locations into maps. We discuss the attributes that point location data and distribution maps must satisfy in order to be useful in conservation planning. We recommend that before point location data are used to produce and/or evaluate distribution models, the dataset should be assessed under a set of criteria, including sample size, age of data, environmental/geographical coverage, independence, accuracy, time relevance and (often forgotten) representation of areas of permanent and natural presence of the species. Distribution maps must satisfy additional attributes if used for conservation analyses and strategies, including minimizing commission and omission errors, credibility of the source/assessors and availability for public screening. We review currently available databases for mammals globally and show that they are highly variable in complying with these attributes. The heterogeneity and weakness of spatial data seriously constrain their utility to global and also sub-global scale conservation analyses.

The Mediterranean basin is considered a hotspot of biological diversity with a long history of modification of natural ecosystems by human activities, and is one of the regions that will face extensive changes in climate. For 181 terrestrial mammals (68% of all Mediterranean mammals), we used an ensemble forecasting approach to model the future (approx. 2100) potential distribution under climate change considering five climate change model outputs for two climate scenarios. Overall, a substantial number of Mediterranean mammals will be severely threatened by future climate change, particularly endemic species. Moreover, we found important changes in potential species richness owing to climate change, with some areas (e.g. montane region in central Italy) gaining species, while most of the region will be losing species (mainly Spain and North Africa). Existing protected areas (PAs) will probably be strongly influenced by climate change, with most PAs in Africa, the Middle East and Spain losing a substantial number of species, and those PAs gaining species (e.g. central Italy and southern France) will experience a substantial shift in species composition.