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"Baker, Michael"
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Case-Fatality Risk Estimates for COVID-19 Calculated by Using a Lag Time for Fatality
We estimated the case-fatality risk for coronavirus disease cases in China (3.5%); China, excluding Hubei Province (0.8%); 82 countries, territories, and areas (4.2%); and on a cruise ship (0.6%). Lower estimates might be closest to the true value, but a broad range of 0.25%-3.0% probably should be considered.
Journal Article
Moriarty returns a letter
Brothers Reggie and Nigel Heath are back in a case that would confound even Sherlock himself. An exhibition of vintage Sherlock Holmes letters has opened at the Marylebone Hotel. As Reggie and his beloved Laura embark on a pre-wedding trip, someone from Reggie and Nigel's past--someone whom they thought was long gone--reappears, causing a whole slew of new problems for the siblings.
Book
Successful Elimination of Covid-19 Transmission in New Zealand
In New Zealand, rapid, science-based risk assessment linked to early, decisive government action was critical to containing Covid-19. The country is now in the postelimination stage, which comes with its own uncertainties.
Journal Article
Elimination could be the optimal response strategy for covid-19 and other emerging pandemic diseases
Michael Baker and colleagues argue that aiming for elimination of community transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus could offer important advantages over a suppression or mitigation strategy with ongoing transmission
Journal Article
A Baker Street wedding
\"The wedding of Reggie Heath and the celebrated actress Laura Rankin was reported in all the tabloids--which is to say, it was a disaster. Now, in a remote village on the British coast, locked in by sea cliffs on one side and moors on the other, the newlywed's plane--piloted by Laura--has landed. Reggie doesn't understand why Laura has picked this god-forsaken hamlet for their honeymoon. What is she keeping from him? The answers are in Laura's past, but she's not saying, and Reggie is out of his depth. He must have help--or his worst fears and more will be realized\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Group A Streptococcus pharyngitis and pharyngeal carriage: A meta-analysis
Antibiotic treatment of Group A Streptococcus (GAS) pharyngitis is important in acute rheumatic fever (ARF) prevention, however clinical guidelines for prescription vary. GAS carriers with acute viral infections may receive antibiotics unnecessarily. This review assessed the prevalence of GAS pharyngitis and carriage in different settings.
A random-effects meta-analysis was performed. Prevalence estimates for GAS+ve pharyngitis, serologically-confirmed GAS pharyngitis and asymptomatic pharyngeal carriage were generated. Findings were stratified by age group, recruitment method and country income level. Medline and EMBASE databases were searched for relevant literature published between 1 January 1946 and 7 April 2017. Studies reporting prevalence data on GAS+ve or serologically-confirmed GAS pharyngitis that stated participants exhibited symptoms of pharyngitis or upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) were included. Included studies reporting the prevalence of asymptomatic GAS carriage needed to state participants were asymptomatic.
285 eligible studies were identified. The prevalence of GAS+ve pharyngitis was 24.1% (95% CI: 22.6-25.6%) in clinical settings (which used 'passive recruitment' methods), but less in sore throat management programmes (which used 'active recruitment', 10.0%, 8.1-12.4%). GAS+ve pharyngitis was more prevalent in high-income countries (24.3%, 22.6-26.1%) compared with low/middle-income countries (17.6%, 14.9-20.7%). In clinical settings, approximately 10% of children swabbed with a sore throat have serologically-confirmed GAS pharyngitis, but this increases to around 50-60% when the child is GAS culture-positive. The prevalence of serologically-confirmed GAS pharyngitis was 10.3% (6.6-15.7%) in children from high-income countries and their asymptomatic GAS carriage prevalence was 10.5% (8.4-12.9%). A lower carriage prevalence was detected in children from low/middle income countries (5.9%, 4.3-8.1%).
In active sore throat management programmes, if the prevalence of GAS detection approaches the asymptomatic carriage rate (around 6-11%), there may be little benefit from antibiotic treatment as the majority of culture-positive patients are likely carriers.
Journal Article
Black hole evaporation beyond the Standard Model of particle physics
A
bstract
The observation of an evaporating black hole would provide definitive information on the elementary particles present in nature. In particular, it could discover or exclude particles beyond those present in the standard model of particle physics. We consider a wide range of motivated scenarios beyond the standard model and identify those which would be best probed in the event of an observation. For those models we define representative benchmark parameters and characterise the photon spectra as a function of time. For the supersymmetric benchmark model, where most of the new particles produce secondary photons, we provide secondary spectra and discuss the subtle interplay between faster black hole evaporation and an increased flux of secondary photons. Finally, we discuss the impact of these models on future experimental analysis strategies.
Journal Article