Explore the vast range of titles available.

In New Zealand, rapid, science-based risk assessment linked to early, decisive government action was critical to containing Covid-19. The country is now in the postelimination stage, which comes with its own uncertainties.

We estimated the case-fatality risk for coronavirus disease cases in China (3.5%); China, excluding Hubei Province (0.8%); 82 countries, territories, and areas (4.2%); and on a cruise ship (0.6%). Lower estimates might be closest to the true value, but a broad range of 0.25%-3.0% probably should be considered.

Antibiotic treatment of Group A Streptococcus (GAS) pharyngitis is important in acute rheumatic fever (ARF) prevention, however clinical guidelines for prescription vary. GAS carriers with acute viral infections may receive antibiotics unnecessarily. This review assessed the prevalence of GAS pharyngitis and carriage in different settings. A random-effects meta-analysis was performed. Prevalence estimates for GAS+ve pharyngitis, serologically-confirmed GAS pharyngitis and asymptomatic pharyngeal carriage were generated. Findings were stratified by age group, recruitment method and country income level. Medline and EMBASE databases were searched for relevant literature published between 1 January 1946 and 7 April 2017. Studies reporting prevalence data on GAS+ve or serologically-confirmed GAS pharyngitis that stated participants exhibited symptoms of pharyngitis or upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) were included. Included studies reporting the prevalence of asymptomatic GAS carriage needed to state participants were asymptomatic. 285 eligible studies were identified. The prevalence of GAS+ve pharyngitis was 24.1% (95% CI: 22.6-25.6%) in clinical settings (which used 'passive recruitment' methods), but less in sore throat management programmes (which used 'active recruitment', 10.0%, 8.1-12.4%). GAS+ve pharyngitis was more prevalent in high-income countries (24.3%, 22.6-26.1%) compared with low/middle-income countries (17.6%, 14.9-20.7%). In clinical settings, approximately 10% of children swabbed with a sore throat have serologically-confirmed GAS pharyngitis, but this increases to around 50-60% when the child is GAS culture-positive. The prevalence of serologically-confirmed GAS pharyngitis was 10.3% (6.6-15.7%) in children from high-income countries and their asymptomatic GAS carriage prevalence was 10.5% (8.4-12.9%). A lower carriage prevalence was detected in children from low/middle income countries (5.9%, 4.3-8.1%). In active sore throat management programmes, if the prevalence of GAS detection approaches the asymptomatic carriage rate (around 6-11%), there may be little benefit from antibiotic treatment as the majority of culture-positive patients are likely carriers.

Although seasonality is a defining characteristic of many infectious diseases, few studies have described and compared seasonal patterns across diseases globally, impeding our understanding of putative mechanisms. Here, we review seasonal patterns across five enteric zoonotic diseases: campylobacteriosis, salmonellosis, vero-cytotoxigenic Escherichia coli (VTEC), cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis in the context of two primary drivers of seasonality: (i) environmental effects on pathogen occurrence and pathogen-host associations and (ii) population characteristics/behaviour. We systematically reviewed published literature from 1960-2010, resulting in the review of 86 studies across the five diseases. The Gini coefficient compared temporal variations in incidence across diseases and the monthly seasonality index characterised timing of seasonal peaks. Consistent seasonal patterns across transnational boundaries, albeit with regional variations was observed. The bacterial diseases all had a distinct summer peak, with identical Gini values for campylobacteriosis and salmonellosis (0.22) and a higher index for VTEC (Gini  0.36). Cryptosporidiosis displayed a bi-modal peak with spring and summer highs and the most marked temporal variation (Gini = 0.39). Giardiasis showed a relatively small summer increase and was the least variable (Gini = 0.18). Seasonal variation in enteric zoonotic diseases is ubiquitous, with regional variations highlighting complex environment-pathogen-host interactions. Results suggest that proximal environmental influences and host population dynamics, together with distal, longer-term climatic variability could have important direct and indirect consequences for future enteric disease risk. Additional understanding of the concerted influence of these factors on disease patterns may improve assessment and prediction of enteric disease burden in temperate, developed countries.

We describe trends in acute rheumatic fever (ARF), rheumatic heart disease (RHD), and RHD deaths among population groups in New Zealand. We analyzed initial primary ARF and RHD hospitalizations during 2000-2018 and RHD mortality rates during 2000-2016. We found elevated rates of initial ARF hospitalizations for persons of Māori (adjusted rate ratio [aRR] 11.8, 95% CI 10.0-14.0) and Pacific Islander (aRR 23.6, 95% CI 19.9-27.9) ethnicity compared with persons of European/other ethnicity. We also noted higher rates of initial RHD hospitalization for Māori (aRR 3.2, 95% CI 2.9-3.5) and Pacific Islander (aRR 4.6, 95% CI 4.2-5.1) groups and RHD deaths among these groups (Māori aRR 12.3, 95% CI 10.3-14.6, and Pacific Islanders aRR 11.2, 95% CI 9.1-13.8). Rates also were higher in socioeconomically disadvantaged neighborhoods. To curb high rates of ARF and RHD, New Zealand must address increasing social and ethnic inequalities.

Despite the considerable injury burden attributable to falls at home among the general population, few effective safety interventions have been identified. We tested the safety benefits of home modifications, including handrails for outside steps and internal stairs, grab rails for bathrooms, outside lighting, edging for outside steps, and slip-resistant surfacing for outside areas such as decks and porches. We did a single-blind, cluster-randomised controlled trial of households from the Taranaki region of New Zealand. To be eligible, participants had to live in an owner-occupied dwelling constructed before 1980 and at least one member of every household had to be in receipt of state benefits or subsidies. We randomly assigned households by electronic coin toss to either immediate home modifications (treatment group) or a 3-year wait before modifications (control group). Household members in the treatment group could not be masked to their assigned status because modifications were made to their homes. The primary outcome was the rate of falls at home per person per year that needed medical treatment, which we derived from administrative data for insurance claims. Coders who were unaware of the random allocation analysed text descriptions of injuries and coded injuries as all falls and injuries most likely to be affected by the home modifications tested. To account for clustering at the household level, we analysed all injuries from falls at home per person-year with a negative binomial generalised linear model with generalised estimating equations. Analysis was by intention to treat. This trial is registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, number ACTRN12609000779279. Of 842 households recruited, 436 (n=950 individual occupants) were randomly assigned to the treatment group and 406 (n=898 occupants) were allocated to the control group. After a median observation period of 1148 days (IQR 1085–1263), the crude rate of fall injuries per person per year was 0·061 in the treatment group and 0·072 in the control group (relative rate 0·86, 95% CI 0·66–1·12). The crude rate of injuries specific to the intervention per person per year was 0·018 in the treatment group and 0·028 in the control group (0·66, 0·43–1·00). A 26% reduction in the rate of injuries caused by falls at home per year exposed to the intervention was estimated in people allocated to the treatment group compared with those assigned to the control group, after adjustment for age, previous falls, sex, and ethnic origin (relative rate 0·74, 95% CI 0·58–0·94). Injuries specific to the home-modification intervention were cut by 39% per year exposed (0·61, 0·41–0·91). Our findings suggest that low-cost home modifications and repairs can be a means to reduce injury in the general population. Further research is needed to identify the effectiveness of particular modifications from the package tested. Health Research Council of New Zealand.

Legionellosis, notably Legionnaires' disease, is recognized globally and in New Zealand (Aotearoa) as a major cause of community-acquired pneumonia. We analyzed the temporal, geographic, and demographic epidemiology and microbiology of Legionnaires' disease in New Zealand by using notification and laboratory-based surveillance data for 2000‒2020. We used Poisson regression models to estimate incidence rate ratios and 95% CIs to compare demographic and organism trends over 2 time periods (2000-2009 and 2010-2020). The mean annual incidence rate increased from 1.6 cases/100,000 population for 2000-2009 to 3.9 cases/100,000 population for 2010-2020. This increase corresponded with a change in diagnostic testing from predominantly serology with some culture to almost entirely molecular methods using PCR. There was also a marked shift in the identified dominant causative organism, from Legionella pneumophila to L. longbeachae. Surveillance for legionellosis could be further enhanced by greater use of molecular typing of isolates.

Notes how global health challenges include non-communicable disease burdens, ensuring food security in the context of rising food prices, and environmental constraints around food production, e.g., greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Considers optimized solutions to the mix of food items in daily diets for a developed country population: New Zealand (NZ). Models 16 diets with data inputs including nutrients in foods, food prices, food wastage and food-specific GHG emissions. Identifies optimal foods and dietary patterns that would lower the risk of non-communicable diseases at low cost and with low greenhouse gas emission profiles. Source: National Library of New Zealand Te Puna Matauranga o Aotearoa, licensed by the Department of Internal Affairs for re-use under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 New Zealand Licence.

We aimed to estimate the risk of COVID-19 outbreaks associated with air travel to a COVID-19-free country [New Zealand (NZ)]. A stochastic version of the SEIR model CovidSIM v1.1, designed specifically for COVID-19 was utilised. We first considered historical data for Australia before it eliminated COVID-19 (equivalent to an outbreak generating 74 new cases/day) and one flight per day to NZ with no interventions in place. This gave a median time to an outbreak of 0.2 years (95% range of simulation results: 3 days to 1.1 years) or a mean of 110 flights per outbreak. However, the combined use of a pre-flight PCR test of saliva, three subsequent PCR tests (on days 1, 3 and 12 in NZ), and various other interventions (mask use and contact tracing) reduced this risk to one outbreak after a median of 1.5 years (20 days to 8.1 years). A pre-flight test plus 14 days quarantine was an even more effective strategy (4.9 years; 2,594 flights). For a much lower prevalence (representing only two new community cases per week in the whole of Australia), the annual risk of an outbreak with no interventions was 1.2% and had a median time to an outbreak of 56 years. In contrast the risks associated with travellers from Japan and the United States was very much higher and would need quarantine or other restrictions. Collectively, these results suggest that multi-layered interventions can markedly reduce the risk of importing the pandemic virus via air travel into a COVID-19-free nation. For some low-risk source countries, there is the potential to replace 14-day quarantine with alternative interventions. However, all approaches require public and policy deliberation about acceptable risks, and continuous careful management and evaluation.

The attenuation of ocean surface waves during seasonal ice cover is an important control on the evolution of Arctic coastlines. The spatial and temporal variations in this process have been challenging to resolve with conventional sampling using sparse arrays of moorings or buoys. We demonstrate a novel method for persistent observation of wave‐ice interactions using distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) along existing seafloor fiber optic telecommunications cables. DAS measurements span a 36‐km cross‐shore cable on the Beaufort Shelf from Oliktok Point, Alaska. DAS optical sensing of fiber strain‐rate provides a proxy for seafloor pressure, which we calibrate with wave buoy measurements during the ice‐free season (August 2022). We apply this calibration during the ice formation season (November 2021) to obtain unprecedented resolution of variable wave attenuation rates in new, partial ice cover. The location and strength of wave attenuation serve as proxies for ice coverage and thickness, especially during rapidly evolving events. Plain Language Summary Coasts globally are susceptible to erosion by ocean waves. In the Arctic, sea ice near the coast can serve as protection for much of the year. It is particularly challenging to measure waves and ice in this environment, which is necessary to understand the degree of buffering and project future changes. Typical ways of observing waves (e.g., buoys and underwater moorings) have lower success in coastal ice. We show a new way to observe waves and ice in these coastal regions using cables at the seabed deployed for internet connection. With the use of an instrument called an interrogator on shore, fibers in these cables can act like a series of hundreds of wave buoys. This allows us to see that waves are reduced at a variable rate throughout the ice. There are significant opportunities to learn more about the coastal Arctic using this novel technology and method. Key Points Seafloor fiber optic cables can be used to quantify surface waves in seasonally sea ice‐covered oceans High spatial‐resolution wave observations may be used to study wave attenuation in ice at much finer resolution than previously possible The rapid evolution of the location and strength of attenuation serves as proxy for the evolution of ice itself