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We describe and evaluate the NMMB/BSC-Dust, a new dust aerosol cycle model embedded online within the NCEP Non-hydrostatic Multiscale Model (NMMB). NMMB is a further evolution of the operational Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (WRF-NMM), which together with other upgrades has been extended from meso to global scales. Its unified non-hydrostatic dynamical core is prepared for regional and global simulation domains. The new NMMB/BSC-Dust is intended to provide short to medium-range weather and dust forecasts from regional to global scales and represents a first step towards the development of a unified chemical-weather model. This paper describes the parameterizations used in the model to simulate the dust cycle including sources, transport, deposition and interaction with radiation. We evaluate monthly and annual means of the global configuration of the model against the AEROCOM dust benchmark dataset for year 2000 including surface concentration, deposition and aerosol optical depth (AOD), and we evaluate the daily AOD variability in a regional domain at high resolution covering Northern Africa, Middle East and Europe against AERONET AOD for year 2006. The NMMB/BSC-Dust provides a good description of the horizontal distribution and temporal variability of the dust. Daily AOD correlations at the regional scale are around 0.6–0.7 on average without dust data assimilation. At the global scale the model lies within the top range of AEROCOM dust models in terms of performance statistics for surface concentration, deposition and AOD. This paper discusses the current strengths and limitations of the modeling system and points towards future improvements.

In the present work, atmospheric mineral dust from a MACC-II short reanalysis run for 2 years (2007–2008) has been evaluated over northern Africa and the Middle East using satellite aerosol products (from MISR, MODIS and OMI satellite sensors), ground-based AERONET data, in situ PM10 concentrations from AMMA, and extinction vertical profiles from two ground-based lidars and CALIOP satellite-based lidar. The MACC-II aerosol optical depth (AOD) spatial and temporal (seasonal and interannual) variability shows good agreement with those provided by satellite sensors. The capability of the model to reproduce the AOD, Ångström exponent (AE) and dust optical depth (DOD) from daily to seasonal time-scale is quantified over 26 AERONET stations located in eight geographically distinct regions by using statistical parameters. Overall DOD seasonal variation is fairly well simulated by MACC-II in all regions, although the correlation is significantly higher in dust transport regions than in dust source regions. The ability of MACC-II in reproducing dust vertical profiles has been assessed by comparing seasonal averaged extinction vertical profiles simulated by MACC-II under dust conditions with corresponding extinction profiles obtained with lidar instruments at M'Bour and Santa Cruz de Tenerife, and with CALIOP. We find a good agreement in dust layers structures and averaged extinction vertical profiles between MACC-II, the lidars and CALIOP above the marine boundary layer from 1 to 6 km. Surface dust daily mean concentrations from MACC-II reanalysis has been evaluated with daily averaged PM10 at three monitoring stations of the Sahelian Dust Transect. MACC-II correctly reproduces daily to interannual surface dust concentration variability, although it underestimates daily and monthly means all year long, especially in winter and early spring (dry season). MACC-II reproduces well the dust variability recorded along the station transect which reflects the variability in dust emission by different Saharan sources, but fails in reproducing the sporadic and very strong dust events associated to mesoscale convective systems during the wet season.

Online coupled mesoscale meteorology atmospheric chemistry models have undergone a rapid evolution in recent years. Although mainly developed by the air quality modelling community, these models are also of interest for numerical weather prediction and regional climate modelling as they can consider not only the effects of meteorology on air quality, but also the potentially important effects of atmospheric composition on weather. Two ways of online coupling can be distinguished: online integrated and online access coupling. Online integrated models simulate meteorology and chemistry over the same grid in one model using one main time step for integration. Online access models use independent meteorology and chemistry modules that might even have different grids, but exchange meteorology and chemistry data on a regular and frequent basis. This article offers a comprehensive review of the current research status of online coupled meteorology and atmospheric chemistry modelling within Europe. Eighteen regional online coupled models developed or being used in Europe are described and compared. Topics discussed include a survey of processes relevant to the interactions between atmospheric physics, dynamics and composition; a brief overview of existing online mesoscale models and European model developments; an analysis on how feedback processes are treated in these models; numerical issues associated with coupled models; and several case studies and model performance evaluation methods. Finally, this article highlights selected scientific issues and emerging challenges that require proper consideration to improve the reliability and usability of these models for the three scientific communities: air quality, numerical meteorology modelling (including weather prediction) and climate modelling. This review will be of particular interest to model developers and users in all three fields as it presents a synthesis of scientific progress and provides recommendations for future research directions and priorities in the development, application and evaluation of online coupled models.

We demonstrate improvements in CALIPSO (Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) dust extinction retrievals over northern Africa and Europe when corrections are applied regarding the Saharan dust lidar ratio assumption, the separation of the dust portion in detected dust mixtures, and the averaging scheme introduced in the Level 3 CALIPSO product. First, a universal, spatially constant lidar ratio of 58 sr instead of 40 sr is applied to individual Level 2 dust-related backscatter products. The resulting aerosol optical depths show an improvement compared with synchronous and collocated AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network) measurements. An absolute bias of the order of −0.03 has been found, improving on the statistically significant biases of the order of −0.10 reported in the literature for the original CALIPSO product. When compared with the MODIS (Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) collocated aerosol optical depth (AOD) product, the CALIPSO negative bias is even less for the lidar ratio of 58 sr. After introducing the new lidar ratio for the domain studied, we examine potential improvements to the climatological CALIPSO Level 3 extinction product: (1) by introducing a new methodology for the calculation of pure dust extinction from dust mixtures and (2) by applying an averaging scheme that includes zero extinction values for the nondust aerosol types detected. The scheme is applied at a horizontal spatial resolution of 1° × 1° for ease of comparison with the instantaneous and collocated dust extinction profiles simulated by the BSC-DREAM8b dust model. Comparisons show that the extinction profiles retrieved with the proposed methodology reproduce the well-known model biases per subregion examined. The very good agreement of the proposed CALIPSO extinction product with respect to AERONET, MODIS and the BSC-DREAM8b dust model makes this dataset an ideal candidate for the provision of an accurate and robust multiyear dust climatology over northern Africa and Europe.

Here we present the first steps in developing a global multi-model aerosol forecasting ensemble intended for eventual operational and basic research use. Drawing from members of the International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction (ICAP) latest generation of quasi-operational aerosol models, 5-day aerosol optical thickness (AOT) forecasts are analyzed for December 2011 through November 2012 from four institutions: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), and Naval Research Lab/Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (NRL/FNMOC). For dust, we also include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-National Geospatial Advisory Committee (NOAA NGAC) product in our analysis. The Barcelona Supercomputing Centre and UK Met Office dust products have also recently become members of ICAP, but have insufficient data to be included in this analysis period. A simple consensus ensemble of member and mean AOT fields for modal species (e.g., fine and coarse mode, and a separate dust ensemble) is used to create the ICAP Multi-Model Ensemble (ICAP-MME). The ICAP-MME is run daily at 00:00 UTC for 6-hourly forecasts out to 120 h. Basing metrics on comparisons to 21 regionally representative Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sites, all models generally captured the basic aerosol features of the globe. However, there is an overall AOT low bias among models, particularly for high AOT events. Biomass burning regions have the most diversity in seasonal average AOT. The Southern Ocean, though low in AOT, nevertheless also has high diversity. With regard to root mean square error (RMSE), as expected the ICAP-MME placed first over all models worldwide, and was typically first or second in ranking against all models at individual sites. These results are encouraging; furthermore, as more global operational aerosol models come online, we expect their inclusion in a robust operational multi-model ensemble will provide valuable aerosol forecasting guidance.

The North Western Mediterranean basin (NWMB) is characterised by a highly complex topography and an important variability of temperature and precipitation patterns. Downscaling techniques are required to capture these features, identify the most vulnerable areas to extreme changes and help decision makers to design strategies of mitigation and adaptation to climate change. A Regional Climate Model, WRF-ARW, is used to downscale the IPCC-AR4 ECHAM5/MPI-OM General Circulation Model results with high resolution (10 km), considering three different emissions scenarios (B1, A1B and A2) for 2001–2050. Model skills to reproduce observed extremes are assessed for a control period, 1971–2000, using the ERA40 reanalysis to drive the WRF-ARW simulations. A representative set of indices for temperature and precipitation extremes is projected. The modelling system correctly reproduces amplitude and frequency of extremes and provides a high degree of detail on variability over neighbouring areas. However, it tends to overestimate the persistence of wet events and consequently slightly underestimate the length of dry periods. Drier and hotter conditions are generally projected for the NWMB, with significant increases in the duration of droughts and the occurrence of heavy precipitation events. The projected increase in the number of tropical nights and extreme temperatures could have a negative effect on human health and comfort conditions. Simulations allow defining specifically vulnerable areas, such as the Ebro Valley or the Pyrenees, and foreseeing impacts on socio-economic activities in the region.

In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead times of up to 72 h using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distribution was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards northern Europe. Our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport.

In this paper, we report the first systematic comparison of 12-year modeled dust extinction profiles vs. Raman lidar measurements. We use the BSC-DREAM8b model, one of the most widely used dust regional models in the Mediterranean, and Potenza EARLINET lidar profiles for Saharan dust cases, the largest one-site database of dust extinction profiles. A total of 310 dust cases were compared for the May 2000–July 2012 period. The model reconstructs the measured layers well: profiles are correlated within 5% of significance for 60% of the cases and the dust layer center of mass as measured by lidar and modeled by BSC-DREAM8b differ on average 0.3 ± 1.0 km. Events with a dust optical depth lower than 0.1 account for 70% of uncorrelated profiles. Although there is good agreement in terms of profile shape and the order of magnitude of extinction values, the model overestimates the occurrence of dust layer top above 10 km. Comparison with extinction profiles measured by the Raman lidar shows that BSC-DREAM8b typically underestimates the dust extinction coefficient, in particular below 3 km. Lowest model–observation differences (below 17%) correspond to a lidar ratio at 532 nm and Ångström exponent at 355/532 nm of 60 ± 13 and 0.1 ± 0.6 sr, respectively. These are in agreement with values typically observed and modeled for pure desert dust. However, the highest differences (higher than 85%) are typically related to greater Ångström values (0.5 ± 0.6), denoting smaller particles. All these aspects indicate that the level of agreement decreases with an increase in mixing/modification processes.

The new NMMB/BSC-Dust model is intended to provide short to medium-range weather and dust forecasts from regional to global scales. It is an online model in which the dust aerosol dynamics and physics are solved at each model time step. The companion paper (Pérez et al., 2011) develops the dust model parameterizations and provides daily to annual evaluations of the model for its global and regional configurations. Modeled aerosol optical depth (AOD) was evaluated against AERONET Sun photometers over Northern Africa, Middle East and Europe with correlations around 0.6–0.7 on average without dust data assimilation. In this paper we analyze in detail the behavior of the model using data from the Saharan Mineral dUst experiment (SAMUM-1) in 2006 and the Bodélé Dust Experiment (BoDEx) in 2005. AOD from satellites and Sun photometers, vertically resolved extinction coefficients from lidars and particle size distributions at the ground and in the troposphere are used, complemented by wind profile data and surface meteorological measurements. All simulations were performed at the regional scale for the Northern African domain at the expected operational horizontal resolution of 25 km. Model results for SAMUM-1 generally show good agreement with satellite data over the most active Saharan dust sources. The model reproduces the AOD from Sun photometers close to sources and after long-range transport, and the dust size spectra at different height levels. At this resolution, the model is not able to reproduce a large haboob that occurred during the campaign. Some deficiencies are found concerning the vertical dust distribution related to the representation of the mixing height in the atmospheric part of the model. For the BoDEx episode, we found the diurnal temperature cycle to be strongly dependant on the soil moisture, which is underestimated in the NCEP analysis used for model initialization. The low level jet (LLJ) and the dust AOD over the Bodélé are well reproduced. The remaining negative AOD bias (due to underestimated surface wind speeds) can be substantially reduced by decreasing the threshold friction velocity in the model.

More than 2 years of columnar atmospheric aerosol measurements (2006–2009) at the Tamanrasset site (22.79° N, 5.53° E, 1377 m a.s.l.), in the heart of the Sahara, are analysed. Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) level 2.0 data were used. The KCICLO (K is the name of a constant and ciclo means cycle in Spanish) method was applied to a part of the level 1.5 data series to improve the quality of the results. The annual variability of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and Ångström exponent (AE) has been found to be strongly linked to the convective boundary layer (CBL) thermodynamic features. The dry-cool season (autumn and winter) is characterized by a shallow CBL and very low mean turbidity (AOD ~ 0.09 at 440 nm, AE ~ 0.62). The wet-hot season (spring and summer) is dominated by high turbidity of coarse dust particles (AE ~ 0.28, AOD ~ 0.39 at 440 nm) and a deep CBL. The aerosol-type characterization shows desert mineral dust as the prevailing aerosol. Both pure Saharan dust and very clear sky conditions are observed depending on the season. However, several case studies indicate an anthropogenic fine mode contribution from the industrial areas in Libya and Algeria. The concentration weighted trajectory (CWT) source apportionment method was used to identify potential sources of air masses arriving at Tamanrasset at several heights for each season. Microphysical and optical properties and precipitable water vapour were also investigated.