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COVID-19 is caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, which jumped into the human population in late 2019 from a currently uncharacterised animal reservoir. Due to this recent association with humans, SARS-CoV-2 may not yet be fully adapted to its human host. This has led to speculations that SARS-CoV-2 may be evolving towards higher transmissibility. The most plausible mutations under putative natural selection are those which have emerged repeatedly and independently (homoplasies). Here, we formally test whether any homoplasies observed in SARS-CoV-2 to date are significantly associated with increased viral transmission. To do so, we develop a phylogenetic index to quantify the relative number of descendants in sister clades with and without a specific allele. We apply this index to a curated set of recurrent mutations identified within a dataset of 46,723 SARS-CoV-2 genomes isolated from patients worldwide. We do not identify a single recurrent mutation in this set convincingly associated with increased viral transmission. Instead, recurrent mutations currently in circulation appear to be evolutionary neutral and primarily induced by the human immune system via RNA editing, rather than being signatures of adaptation. At this stage we find no evidence for significantly more transmissible lineages of SARS-CoV-2 due to recurrent mutations. SARS-CoV-2 has emerged recently and may still adapt to the human host. Here the authors show that none of the so far identified recurrent mutations in SARS-CoV-2 are significantly associated with increased viral transmission.

SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of the COVID-19 pandemic, can infect a wide range of mammals. Since its spread in humans, secondary host jumps of SARS-CoV-2 from humans to multiple domestic and wild populations of mammals have been documented. Understanding the extent of adaptation to these animal hosts is critical for assessing the threat that the spillback of animal-adapted SARS-CoV-2 into humans poses. We compare the genomic landscapes of SARS-CoV-2 isolated from animal species to that in humans, profiling the mutational biases indicative of potentially different selective pressures in animals. We focus on viral genomes isolated from mink ( Neovison vison ) and white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) for which multiple independent outbreaks driven by onward animal-to-animal transmission have been reported. We identify five candidate mutations for animal-specific adaptation in mink (NSP9_G37E, Spike_F486L, Spike_N501T, Spike_Y453F, ORF3a_L219V), and one in deer (NSP3a_L1035F), though they appear to confer a minimal advantage for human-to-human transmission. No considerable changes to the mutation rate or evolutionary trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 has resulted from circulation in mink and deer thus far. Our findings suggest that minimal adaptation was required for onward transmission in mink and deer following human-to-animal spillover, highlighting the ‘generalist’ nature of SARS-CoV-2 as a mammalian pathogen. Here, Tan et al. find that the rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2 in mink and deer required minimal adaptation, has only caused moderate changes to the evolutionary trajectory of the virus, and has not led to viral mutations that greatly improve human transmission thus far.

... and humans out of Africa The 'out of Africa' debate on human origins has enlivened palaeoanthropology for many years. Genetic analyses tended to support a single origin for modern humans in Africa, but measurements of anatomy have produced mixed results. Now that dichotomy is resolved: a new analysis of a large database of skull measurements, informed by advances in ancient demography of anatomically modern humans made possible by large genetic datasets, unequivocally supports a single African origin. The proposed origin of modern humans has been controversial; whereas genetic analyses mostly support a single African origin, measurements of anatomy give mixed results. A new analysis of a large database of skull measurements by Manica and colleagues shows that 'distance from Africa' accounts for up to a quarter of heritable variation in craniometric traits, strongly indicating a common African heritage. The origin and patterns of dispersal of anatomically modern humans are the focus of considerable debate 1 , 2 , 3 . Global genetic analyses have argued for one single origin, placed somewhere in Africa 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 . This scenario implies a rapid expansion, with a series of bottlenecks of small amplitude, which would have led to the observed smooth loss of genetic diversity with increasing distance from Africa. Analyses of cranial data, on the other hand, have given mixed results 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 , and have been argued to support multiple origins of modern humans 2 , 9 , 12 . Using a large data set of skull measurements and an analytical framework equivalent to that used for genetic data, we show that the loss in genetic diversity has been mirrored by a loss in phenotypic variability. We find evidence for an African origin, placed somewhere in the central/southern part of the continent, which harbours the highest intra-population diversity in phenotypic measurements. We failed to find evidence for a second origin, and we confirm these results on a large genetic data set. Distance from Africa accounts for an average 19–25% of heritable variation in craniometric measurements—a remarkably strong effect for phenotypic measurements known to be under selection.

Epstein–Barr virus (EBV) is one of the most common viral infections in humans and persists within its host for life. EBV therefore represents an extremely successful virus that has evolved complex strategies to evade the host’s innate and adaptive immune response during both initial and persistent stages of infection. Here, we conducted a comparative genomics analysis on 223 whole genome sequences of worldwide EBV strains. We recover extensive genome-wide linkage disequilibrium (LD) despite pervasive genetic recombination. This pattern is explained by the global EBV population being subdivided into three main subpopulations, one primarily found in East Asia, one in Southeast Asia and Oceania, and the third including most of the other globally distributed genomes we analyzed. Additionally, sites in LD were overrepresented in immunogenic genes. Taken together, our results suggest that host immune selection and local adaptation to different human host populations has shaped the genome-wide patterns of genetic diversity in EBV.

Reliable estimates of the rate at which DNA accumulates mutations (the substitution rate) are crucial for our understanding of the evolution and past demography of virtually any species. In humans, there are considerable uncertainties around these rates, with substantial variation among recent published estimates. Substitution rates have traditionally been estimated by associating dated events to the root (e.g., the divergence between humans and chimpanzees) or to internal nodes in a phylogenetic tree (e.g., first entry into the Americas). The recent availability of ancient mitochondrial DNA sequences allows for a more direct calibration by assigning the age of the sequenced samples to the tips within the human phylogenetic tree. But studies also vary greatly in the methodology employed and in the sequence panels analyzed, making it difficult to tease apart the causes for the differences between previous estimates. To clarify this issue, we compiled a comprehensive data set of 350 ancient and modern human complete mitochondrial DNA genomes, among which 146 were generated for the purpose of this study and estimated substitution rates using calibrations based both on dated nodes and tips. Our results demonstrate that, for the same data set, estimates based on individual dated tips are far more consistent with each other than those based on nodes and should thus be considered as more reliable.

The relative importance of ancient demography and climate in determining worldwide patterns of human within-population phenotypic diversity is still open to debate. Several morphometric traits have been argued to be under selection by climatic factors, but it is unclear whether climate affects the global decline in morphological diversity with increasing geographical distance from sub-Saharan Africa. Using a large database of male and female skull measurements, we apply an explicit framework to quantify the relative role of climate and distance from Africa. We show that distance from sub-Saharan Africa is the sole determinant of human within-population phenotypic diversity, while climate plays no role. By selecting the most informative set of traits, it was possible to explain over half of the worldwide variation in phenotypic diversity. These results mirror those previously obtained for genetic markers and show that 'bones and molecules' are in perfect agreement for humans.

Abstract Background: The dramatic progress in sequencing technologies offers unprecedented prospects for deciphering the organization of natural populations in space and time. However, the size of the datasets generated also poses some daunting challenges. In particular, Bayesian clustering algorithms based on pre-defined population genetics models such as the STRUCTURE or BAPS software may not be able to cope with this unprecedented amount of data. Thus, there is a need for less computer-intensive approaches. Multivariate analyses seem particularly appealing as they are specifically devoted to extracting information from large datasets. Unfortunately, currently available multivariate methods still lack some essential features needed to study the genetic structure of natural populations. Results: We introduce the Discriminant Analysis of Principal Components (DAPC), a multivariate method designed to identify and describe clusters of genetically related individuals. When group priors are lacking, DAPC uses sequential K-means and model selection to infer genetic clusters. Our approach allows extracting rich information from genetic data, providing assignment of individuals to groups, a visual assessment of between-population differentiation, and contribution of individual alleles to population structuring. We evaluate the performance of our method using simulated data, which were also analyzed using STRUCTURE as a benchmark. Additionally, we illustrate the method by analyzing microsatellite polymorphism in worldwide human populations and hemagglutinin gene sequence variation in seasonal influenza. Conclusions: Analysis of simulated data revealed that our approach performs generally better than STRUCTURE at characterizing population subdivision. The tools implemented in DAPC for the identification of clusters and graphical representation of between-group structures allow to unravel complex population structures. Our approach is also faster than Bayesian clustering algorithms by several orders of magnitude, and may be applicable to a wider range of datasets.

Several theories have been put forth as to the origin and timing of when Native American ancestors entered the Americas. To clarify this controversy, Raghavan et al. examined the genomic variation among ancient and modern individuals from Asia and the Americas. There is no evidence for multiple waves of entry or recurrent gene flow with Asians in northern populations. The earliest migrations occurred no earlier than 23,000 years ago from Siberian ancestors. Amerindians and Athabascans originated from a single population, splitting approximately 13,000 years ago. Science , this issue 10.1126/science.aab3884 Genetic variation within ancient and extant Native American populations informs on their migration into the Americas. How and when the Americas were populated remains contentious. Using ancient and modern genome-wide data, we found that the ancestors of all present-day Native Americans, including Athabascans and Amerindians, entered the Americas as a single migration wave from Siberia no earlier than 23 thousand years ago (ka) and after no more than an 8000-year isolation period in Beringia. After their arrival to the Americas, ancestral Native Americans diversified into two basal genetic branches around 13 ka, one that is now dispersed across North and South America and the other restricted to North America. Subsequent gene flow resulted in some Native Americans sharing ancestry with present-day East Asians (including Siberians) and, more distantly, Australo-Melanesians. Putative “Paleoamerican” relict populations, including the historical Mexican Pericúes and South American Fuego-Patagonians, are not directly related to modern Australo-Melanesians as suggested by the Paleoamerican Model.

Travelling companions More than half of all humans are infected by the gut bacterium Helicobacter pylori , which can cause peptic ulcers and is a risk factor for stomach cancer. A major study of genetic variation in H. pylori isolates shows that the key patterns in the distribution of its genetic diversity mirror those of its human host. As in humans, there is a continuous loss of genetic diversity with increasing distance from East Africa, suggesting that humans were already infected with the ulcer-causing bacterium around 58,000 years ago when they migrated out of Africa. Humans and H. pylori also seem to have spread from East Africa over the same time scale, suggesting that their association predates the 'out of Africa' event. The team also found that the genetic make-up of H. pylori is more diverse than that of humans, so analyses of the microorganism's DNA might aid future work. As is the case with humans, Helicobacter pylori shows genetic evidence of an origin in Africa and subsequent migrations to the rest of the world. Infection of the stomach by Helicobacter pylori is ubiquitous among humans. However, although H. pylori strains from different geographic areas are associated with clear phylogeographic differentiation 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , the age of an association between these bacteria with humans remains highly controversial 5 , 6 . Here we show, using sequences from a large data set of bacterial strains that, as in humans, genetic diversity in H. pylori decreases with geographic distance from east Africa, the cradle of modern humans. We also observe similar clines of genetic isolation by distance (IBD) for both H. pylori and its human host at a worldwide scale. Like humans, simulations indicate that H. pylori seems to have spread from east Africa around 58,000 yr ago. Even at more restricted geographic scales, where IBD tends to become blurred, principal component clines in H. pylori from Europe strongly resemble the classical clines for Europeans described by Cavalli-Sforza and colleagues 7 . Taken together, our results establish that anatomically modern humans were already infected by H. pylori before their migrations from Africa and demonstrate that H. pylori has remained intimately associated with their human host populations ever since.

It has been proposed that effective size could be estimated in small dioecious population by considering the heterozygote excess observed at neutral markers. When the number of breeders is small, allelic frequencies in males and females will slightly differ due to binomial sampling error. However, this excess of heterozygotes is not generated by dioecy but by the absence of individuals produced through selfing. Consequently, the approach can also be applied to self-incompatible monoecious species. Some inaccuracies in earlier equations expressing effective size as function of the heterozygote excess are also corrected in this paper. The approach is then extended to subdivided populations, where time of sampling becomes crucial. When adults are sampled, the effective size of the entire population can be estimated, whereas when juveniles are sampled, the average effective number of breeders per subpopulations can be estimated. The main limitation of the heterozygote excess method is that it will only perform satisfactorily for populations with a small number of reproducing individuals. While this situation is unlikely to happen frequently at the scale of the entire population, structured populations with small subpopulations are likely to be common. The estimation of the average number of breeders per subpopulations is thus expected to be applicable to many natural populations. The approach is straightforward to compute and independent of equilibrium assumptions. Applications to simulated data suggest the estimation of the number of breeders to be robust to mutation and migration rates, and to specificities of the mating system.