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The unprecedented worldwide social distancing response to COVID-19 resulted in a quick reversal of escalating case numbers. Recently, local governments globally have begun to relax social distancing regulations. Using the situation in Manitoba, Canada as an example, we estimated the impact that social distancing relaxation may have on the pandemic. We fit a mathematical model to empirically estimated numbers of people infected, recovered, and died from COVID-19 in Manitoba. We then explored the impact of social distancing relaxation on: (a) time until near elimination of COVID-19 (< one case per million), (b) time until peak prevalence, (c) proportion of the population infected within one year, (d) peak prevalence, and (e) deaths within one year. Assuming a closed population, near elimination of COVID-19 in Manitoba could have been achieved in 4-6 months (by July or August) if there were no relaxation of social distancing. Relaxing to 15% of pre-COVID effective contacts may extend the local epidemic for more than two years (median 2.1). Relaxation to 50% of pre-COVID effective contacts may result in a peak prevalence of 31-38% of the population, within 3-4 months of initial relaxation. Slight relaxation of social distancing may immensely impact the pandemic duration and expected peak prevalence. Only holding the course with respect to social distancing may have resulted in near elimination before Fall of 2020; relaxing social distancing to 15% of pre-COVID-19 contacts will flatten the epidemic curve but greatly extend the duration of the pandemic.

BackgroundRelapse continues to place significant burden on patients and tuberculosis (TB) programmes worldwide. We aimed to determine clinical and microbiological factors associated with relapse in patients treated with the WHO standard 6-month regimen and then evaluate the accuracy of each factor at predicting an outcome of relapse.MethodsA systematic review was performed to identify randomised controlled trials reporting treatment outcomes on patients receiving the standard regimen. Authors were contacted and invited to share patient-level data (IPD). A one-step IPD meta-analysis, using random intercept logistic regression models and receiver operating characteristic curves, was performed to evaluate the predictive performance of variables of interest.ResultsIndividual patient data were obtained from 3 of the 12 identified studies. Of the 1189 patients with confirmed pulmonary TB who completed therapy, 67 (5.6%) relapsed. In multipredictor analysis, the presence of baseline cavitary disease with positive smear at 2 months was associated with an increased odds of relapse (OR 2.3(95% CI 1.3 to 4.2)) and a relapse risk of 10%. When area under the curve for each multipredictor model was compared, discrimination between low-risk and higher-risk patients was modest and similar to that of the reference model which accounted for age, sex and HIV status.ConclusionDespite its poor predictive value, our results indicate that the combined presence of cavitary disease and 2-month positive smear status may be the best currently available marker for identifying individuals at an increased risk of relapse, particularly in resource-limited setting. Further investigation is required to assess whether this combined factor can be used to indicate different treatment requirements in clinical practice.

Canadian tuberculosis (TB) guidelines recommend targeting postlanding screening for and treatment of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) in people migrating to Canada who are at increased risk for TB reactivation. Our objectives were to calculate robust longitudinal estimates of TB incidence in a cohort of people migrating to British Columbia, Canada, over a 29-year period, and to identify groups at highest risk of developing TB based on demographic characteristics at time of landing. We included all individuals (n = 1 080 908) who became permanent residents of Canada between Jan. 1, 1985, and Dec. 31, 2012, and were resident in BC at any time between 1985 and 2013. Multiple administrative databases were linked to the provincial TB registry. We used recursive partitioning models to identify populations with high TB yield. Active TB was diagnosed in 2814 individuals (incidence rate 24.2/100 000 person-years). Demographic factors (live-in caregiver, family, refugee immigration classes; higher TB incidence in country of birth; and older age) were strong predictors of TB incidence in BC, with elevated rates continuing many years after entry into the cohort. Recursive partitioning identified refugees 18–64 years of age from countries with a TB incidence greater than 224/100 000 population as a high-yield group, with 1% developing TB within the first 10 years. These findings support recommendations in Canadian guidelines to target postlanding screening for and treatment of LTBI in adult refugees from high-incidence countries. Because high-yield populations can be identified at entry via demographic data, screening at this point may be practical and high-impact, particularly if the LTBI care cascade can be optimized.

Background A significant proportion of Canadian adults is impacted by chronic noncommunicable diseases. These conditions may be improved by peer-led health promotion interventions that target modifiable risk factors; however, to date, there is mixed evidence on the effectiveness of these interventions. Unlike other health promotion programs, Hans Kai is grounded in a holistic model of health that simultaneously addresses multiple determinants of health at different levels of human ecology. In Hans Kai, a set of informational sessions that are delivered in a group setting by healthcare professionals are followed by regular peer-led group meetings in a self-governed support group setting that is designed to promote implementation of newly learned health competences. The Hans Kai trial described here aims to evaluate the efficacy of the Hans Kai program in promoting the health and wellbeing of its participants and investigate the experiences of the Hans Kai participants and facilitators. Methods This research will involve a mixed methods trial combining an experimental component with a qualitative component. The experimental component will involve a 6-month 2-group parallel superiority randomized controlled trial (RCT) in which 105 participants will be randomly assigned to two conditions, an intervention group ( n  = 70) that will participate in the Hans Kai program and a control group ( n  = 35) that will have access to standard care using a computer-generated random sequence; blinding will not occur. The RCT will test the impact of the program on several health outcomes and will be followed by a 12–18-month observational follow-up study that will provide data on the long-term durability of the 6-month RCT health outcomes. The qualitative component will investigate the experiences of program participants ( n  = 30) and facilitators ( n  = 15) to identify the main strengths and limitations of Hans Kai, uncover potential implementation issues, and elucidate the mechanisms through which the program works. The population of interest will include adults aged 18 + with or without chronic health conditions who self-report an interest in taking control of their own health and improving their lifestyle. In the RCT, all outcomes of interest will be measured using a multi-method approach, involving self-report questionnaires and objective indicators, and within-subject mean changes in outcomes over time between the two groups will be compared to address the RCT aims. Similarly, in the qualitative component, a multi-method approach, involving in-depth individual interviews, photovoice, and online surveys, will be used to reach a deeper and more nuanced understanding of the program strengths, how the program works, and for which people it is more effective. Adaptable components of the program will also be investigated and modified according to the feedback provided by the RCT participants. In the mixed methods integration of evidence, the qualitative findings will be used to explain the quantitative RCT results. Discussion The RCT findings will help support the further development and use of Hans Kai as well as other peer-led health promotion interventions. Trial registration United Stated Clinical Trial Registry ClinicalTrials.gov (registration# NCT03949725; Protocol version 2, June 22nd, 2022).

The population of adults aged 55 years and older in Canada is growing steadily to be one of the largest demographic groups, creating an aging society. Adults 55 + are facing dynamic changes in employment and finances, relationships, living situation, and health, which may contribute to increased psychosocial and psychological challenges, including social isolation, loneliness, depression, and anxiety. Importantly, when adults 55 + need mental health support, they are less likely to access this support compared to other demographics. When supports are grounded in the community and are available through telephone and video-conferencing, access can be improved. Developed in partnership with community organizations, The CONNECT Program is designed to improve the psychosocial well-being of older adults, focusing on psychological flexibility, and in this randomized controlled trial will be compared against routine community-based programming across Canada. This randomized crossover trial is embedded within a type 1 hybrid implementation-effectiveness design across four Canadian provinces. Adults aged 55+ with self-reported experiences of loneliness, social isolation, and/or mental health challenges are randomly assigned to begin with either the intervention (The CONNECT Program) or community-based programming, then cross over to the other condition. The CONNECT Program is a six-week, group-based telehealth intervention grounded in Acceptance and Commitment Therapy, self-compassion, theories of successful aging delivered via telephone or videoconference. The primary outcome is psychological flexibility; secondary outcomes include loneliness, social isolation, emotional support, anxiety, depression, and mental health literacy. Implementation outcomes will be assessed using the Proctor Framework. The CONNECT Program is a novel community-based mental health intervention addressing the needs of adults 55 + who experience isolation, loneliness and mental health challenges. The results of this trial will strengthen support for a scalable mental health support for Canadians 55+ in a time of high need to promote health in later life. Trial registration The trial was registered on ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT07107906, 08/05/2025, https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT07107906.

IntroductionTranexamic acid (TXA) is an inexpensive and widely available medication that reduces blood loss and red blood cell (RBC) transfusion in cardiac and orthopaedic surgeries. While the use of TXA in these surgeries is routine, its efficacy and safety in other surgeries, including oncologic surgeries, with comparable rates of transfusion are uncertain. Our primary objective is to evaluate whether a hospital-level policy implementation of routine TXA use in patients undergoing major non-cardiac surgery reduces RBC transfusion without increasing thrombotic risk.Methods and analysisA pragmatic, registry-based, blinded, cluster-crossover randomised controlled trial at 10 Canadian sites, enrolling patients undergoing non-cardiac surgeries at high risk for RBC transfusion. Sites are randomised in 4-week intervals to a hospital policy of intraoperative TXA or matching placebo. TXA is administered as 1 g at skin incision, followed by an additional 1 g prior to skin closure. Coprimary outcomes are (1) effectiveness, evaluated as the proportion of patients transfused RBCs during hospital admission and (2) safety, evaluated as the proportion of patients diagnosed with venous thromboembolism within 90 days. Secondary outcomes include: (1) transfusion: number of RBC units transfused (both at a hospital and patient level); (2) safety: in-hospital diagnoses of myocardial infarction, stroke, deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism; (3) clinical: hospital length of stay, intensive care unit admission, hospital survival, 90-day survival and the number of days alive and out of hospital to day 30; and (4) compliance: the proportion of enrolled patients who receive a minimum of one dose of the study intervention.Ethics and disseminationInstitutional research ethics board approval has been obtained at all sites. At the completion of the trial, a plain language summary of the results will be posted on the trial website and distributed in the lay press. Our trial results will be published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal.Trial registration number NCT04803747.

Background Biomarker panels derived separately from genomic and proteomic data and with a variety of computational methods have demonstrated promising classification performance in various diseases. An open question is how to create effective proteo-genomic panels. The framework of ensemble classifiers has been applied successfully in various analytical domains to combine classifiers so that the performance of the ensemble exceeds the performance of individual classifiers. Using blood-based diagnosis of acute renal allograft rejection as a case study, we address the following question in this paper: Can acute rejection classification performance be improved by combining individual genomic and proteomic classifiers in an ensemble? Results The first part of the paper presents a computational biomarker development pipeline for genomic and proteomic data. The pipeline begins with data acquisition (e.g., from bio-samples to microarray data), quality control, statistical analysis and mining of the data, and finally various forms of validation. The pipeline ensures that the various classifiers to be combined later in an ensemble are diverse and adequate for clinical use. Five mRNA genomic and five proteomic classifiers were developed independently using single time-point blood samples from 11 acute-rejection and 22 non-rejection renal transplant patients. The second part of the paper examines five ensembles ranging in size from two to 10 individual classifiers. Performance of ensembles is characterized by area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity, as derived from the probability of acute rejection for individual classifiers in the ensemble in combination with one of two aggregation methods: (1) Average Probability or (2) Vote Threshold. One ensemble demonstrated superior performance and was able to improve sensitivity and AUC beyond the best values observed for any of the individual classifiers in the ensemble, while staying within the range of observed specificity. The Vote Threshold aggregation method achieved improved sensitivity for all 5 ensembles, but typically at the cost of decreased specificity. Conclusion Proteo-genomic biomarker ensemble classifiers show promise in the diagnosis of acute renal allograft rejection and can improve classification performance beyond that of individual genomic or proteomic classifiers alone. Validation of our results in an international multicenter study is currently underway.

Background Potassium regulation in the body is primarily done in the kidney. In addition to this, hyperkalemia, occurs in approximately 10% of individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and is associated with elevated all-cause mortality. Individuals with CKD are often told to restrict dietary potassium (K), however, this recommendation is based on low quality evidence. Reduced quality of life, limited dietary choices and nutritional deficiencies are all potential negative outcomes that may occur when restricting dietary K in CKD patients. There is a need for randomized controlled trials investigating the impact of dietary K modification on serum K concentrations in people with CKD. Methods A randomized 2-period crossover design comparing a liberalized K fruit and vegetable diet where participants will be required to consume ~ 3500 mg of dietary K daily, to a standard K restricted diet where participants will be required to consume < 2000 mg of dietary K daily. All participants will begin on a liberalized K run-in period for 2 weeks where they will receive fruit and vegetables home deliveries and for safety will have clinical chemistry, including serum potassium measurements taken after 1 week. Participants will then be randomized into either liberalized K or standard K diet for six weeks and then crossover to the other intervention for another 6 weeks after a 2-week washout period. Discussion 30 male and female CKD outpatients, ≥ 18 years of age, who have an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) between 15 and 45 ml/min/1.73m 2 and serum K between 4.5 and 5.5 mEq/L. This design would have greater than 80% power to detect a difference of 0.35 mEq/L serum K between groups. Anthropometric measurements, clinical chemistry, dietary recalls, physical function assessments, as well as a quality of life assessments will also be measured in this trial. These findings will provide high quality evidence for, or against, recommendations for dietary K restriction in individuals living with CKD. The removal of K restriction could provide individuals living with CKD more dietary choice leading to improved dietary status and quality of life. Trial Registration This trial has received approval from the University of Manitoba Research Ethics board (HS25191 (B2021:104)).

Background: We analyzed the prevalence of pre-antiretroviral therapy (ART) drug resistance mutations (DRMs) in a Kenyan population. We also examined whether host HLA class I genes influence the development of pre-ART DRMs. Methods: The HIV-1 proviral DNAs were amplified from blood samples of 266 ART-naïve women from the Pumwani Sex Worker cohort of Nairobi, Kenya using a nested PCR method. The amplified HIV genomes were sequenced using next-generation sequencing technology. The prevalence of pre-ART DRMs was investigated. Correlation studies were performed between HLA class I alleles and HIV-1 DRMs. Results: Ninety-eight percent of participants had at least one DRM, while 38% had at least one WHO surveillance DRM. M184I was the most prevalent clinically important variant, seen in 37% of participants. The DRMs conferring resistance to one or more integrase strand transfer inhibitors were also found in up to 10% of participants. Eighteen potentially relevant (p < 0.05) positive correlations were found between HLA class 1 alleles and HIV drug-resistant variants. Conclusions: High levels of HIV drug resistance were found in all classes of antiretroviral drugs included in the current first-line ART regimens in Africa. The development of DRMs may be influenced by host HLA class I-restricted immunity.

After over 3 decades of research, an effective anti-HIV vaccine remains elusive. The recently halted HVTN702 clinical trial not only further stresses the challenge to develop an effective HIV vaccine but also emphasizes that unconventional and novel vaccine strategies are urgently needed. Here, we report that a vaccine focusing the immune response on the sequences surrounding the 12 viral protease cleavage sites (PCSs) provided greater than 80% protection to Mauritian cynomolgus macaques against repeated intravaginal SIVmac251 challenges. The PCS-specific T cell responses correlated with vaccine efficacy. The PCS vaccine did not induce immune activation or inflammation known to be associated with increased susceptibility to HIV infection. Machine learning analyses revealed that the immune microenvironment generated by the PCS vaccine was predictive of vaccine efficacy. Our study demonstrates, for the first time to our knowledge, that a vaccine which targets only viral maturation, but lacks full-length Env and Gag immunogens, can prevent intravaginal infection in a stringent macaque/SIV challenge model. Targeting HIV maturation thus offers a potentially novel approach to developing an effective HIV vaccine.