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Aim Accounting for sampling bias is the greatest challenge facing presence‐only and presence‐background species distribution models; no matter what type of model is chosen, using biased data will mask the true relationship between occurrences and environmental predictors. To address this issue, we review four established bias correction techniques, using empirical occurrences with known sampling effort, and virtual species with known distributions. Innovation Occurrence data come from a national recording scheme of hoverflies (Syrphidae) in Great Britain, spanning 1983–2002. Target‐group backgrounds, distance‐restricted backgrounds, travel time to cities and human population density were used to account for sampling bias in 58 species of hoverfly. Distributions generated by bias correction techniques were compared in geographical space to the distribution produced accounting for known sampling effort, using Schoener's distance, centroid shifts and range size changes. To validate our results, we performed the same comparisons using 50 randomly generated virtual species. We used sampling effort from the hoverfly recording scheme to structure our biased sampling regime, emulating complex real‐life sampling bias. Main conclusions Models made without any correction typically produced distributions that mapped sampling effort rather than the underlying habitat suitability. Target‐group backgrounds performed the best at emulating sampling effort and unbiased virtual occurrences, but also showed signs of overcompensation in places. Other methods performed better than no‐correction, but often differences were difficult to visually detect. In line with previous studies, when sampling effort is unknown, target‐group backgrounds provide a useful tool for reducing the effect of sampling bias. Models should be visually inspected for biological realism to identify any areas of potential overcompensation. Given the disparity between corrected and un‐corrected models, sampling bias constitutes a major source of error in species distribution modelling, and more research is needed to confidently address the issue.

Sexual selection, one of the central pillars of evolutionary theory, has powerful effects on organismal morphology, behaviour, and population dynamics. However, current knowledge about geographical variation in this evolutionary mechanism and its underlying drivers remains highly incomplete, in part because standardised data on the strength of sexual selection is sparse even for well-studied organisms. Here, we use information on mating systems—including the incidence of polygamy and extra-pair paternity—to estimate the intensity of sexual selection in 10,671 (>99.9%) bird species distributed worldwide. We show that avian sexual selection varies latitudinally, peaking at higher latitudes, although the gradient is reversed in the world’s most sexually selected birds—specialist frugivores—which are strongly associated with tropical forests. Phylogenetic models further reveal that the strength of sexual selection is explained by temperature seasonality coupled with a suite of climate-associated factors, including migration, diet, and territoriality. Overall, these analyses suggest that climatic conditions leading to short, intense breeding seasons, or highly abundant and patchy food resources, increase the potential for polygamy in birds, driving latitudinal gradients in sexual selection. Our findings help to resolve longstanding debates about spatial variation in evolutionary mechanisms linked to reproductive biology and also provide a comprehensive species-level data set for further studies of selection and phenotypic evolution in the context of global climatic change.

Sexual selection, one of the central pillars of evolutionary theory, has powerful effects on organismal morphology, behaviour and population dynamics. However, current knowledge about geographical variation in this evolutionary mechanism and its underlying drivers remains highly incomplete, in part because standardized data on the strength of sexual selection is sparse even for well-studied organisms. Here we use information on mating systems – including the incidence of polygamy and extra-pair paternity – to quantify the intensity of sexual selection in 10671 (>99.9%) bird species distributed worldwide. We show that avian sexual selection varies latitudinally, peaking at higher latitudes, although the gradient is reversed in the world’s most sexually selected birds – specialist frugivores – which are strongly associated with tropical forests. Phylogenetic models further reveal that the strength of sexual selection is explained by temperature seasonality coupled with a suite of climate-associated factors, including migration, diet, and territoriality. Overall, these analyses suggest that climatic conditions leading to short, intense breeding seasons, or highly abundant and patchy food resources, increase the potential for polygamy in birds, driving latitudinal gradients in sexual selection. Our findings help to resolve longstanding debates about spatial variation in evolutionary mechanisms linked to reproductive biology, and provide a comprehensive species-level dataset for further studies of selection and phenotypic evolution in the context of global climatic change.

Acoustic signal complexity varies widely in the animal kingdom for reasons that remain unclear. In birds, it is widely proposed that vocal complexity evolves as an honest signal of individual quality driven by sexual selection. Other hypotheses related to social interactions include competition for ecological resources (social selection) and intra-group communication in group- living animals, both of which may favour signal complexity. However, these hypotheses are rarely explored at macroevolutionary scales, particularly in the context of constraints on sound production, transmission and detection, leading to ongoing uncertainty about the evolutionary origins of complex vocal signals. Using Bayesian phylogenetic models, we test whether different forms of social communication and ecological constraints predict the temporal and spectral complexity of songs in 1,288 species of suboscine passerine birds. We found that song complexity was reduced by sexual selection, along with other limiting factors including large body size and dense vegetation. Conversely, territoriality boosted the temporal complexity of songs. These findings challenge the common assumption that sexual selection is the main driver of increased signal complexity, and instead highlight the role of social selection as a key component of multiple inter-related drivers and constraints.

From the names of cruise lines and bookstores to an Australian ranch and a nudist camp outside of Atlanta, the wordserendipity--that happy blend of wisdom and luck by which something is discovered not quite by accident--is today ubiquitous. This book traces the word's eventful history from its 1754 coinage into the twentieth century--chronicling along the way much of what we now call the natural and social sciences. The book charts where the term went, with whom it resided, and how it fared. We cross oceans and academic specialties and meet those people, both famous and now obscure, who have used and abusedserendipity. We encounter a linguistic sage, walk down the illustrious halls of the Harvard Medical School, attend the (serendipitous) birth of penicillin, and meet someone who \"manages serendipity\" for the U.S. Navy. The story ofserendipityis fascinating; that ofThe Travels and Adventures of Serendipity, equally so. Written in the 1950s by already-eminent sociologist Robert Merton and Elinor Barber, the book--though occasionally and most tantalizingly cited--was intentionally never published. This is all the more curious because it so remarkably anticipated subsequent battles over research and funding--many of which centered on the role of serendipity in science. Finally, shortly after his ninety-first birthday, following Barber's death and preceding his own by but a little, Merton agreed to expand and publish this major work. Beautifully written, the book is permeated by the prodigious intellectual curiosity and generosity that characterized Merton's influentialOn the Shoulders of Giants. Absolutely entertaining as the history of a word, the book is also tremendously important to all who value the miracle of intellectual discovery. It represents Merton's lifelong protest against that rhetoric of science that defines discovery as anything other than a messy blend of inspiration, perspiration, error, and happy chance--anything other than serendipity.

Ducks and wild waterfowl perpetuate all strains of influenza viruses in nature. In their natural host, influenza viruses typically cause asymptomatic infection and little pathology. Ducks are often resistant to influenza viruses capable of killing chickens. Here, we show that the influenza virus sensor, RIG-I, is present in ducks and plays a role in clearing an influenza infection. We show evidence suggesting that RIG-I may be absent in chickens, providing a plausible explanation for their increased susceptibility to influenza viruses compared with ducks. RIG-I detects RNA ligands derived from uncapped viral transcripts and initiates the IFN response. In this study, we show that the chicken embryonic fibroblast cell line, DF-1, cannot respond to a RIG-I ligand. However, transfection of duck RIG-I into DF-1 cells rescues the detection of ligand and induces IFN-β promoter activity. Additionally, DF-1 cells expressing duck RIG-I have an augmented IFN response resulting in decreased influenza replication after challenge with either low or highly pathogenic avian influenza virus. Implicating RIG-I in the antiviral response to an infection in vivo, we found that RIG-I expression is induced 200 fold, early in an innate immune response in ducks challenged with the H5N1 virus A/Vietnam/1203/04. Finding this natural disease resistance gene in ducks opens the possibility of increasing influenza resistance through creation of a transgenic chicken.

The serious errors and misstatements of law contained in Arthur J. Goldberg's article calling for the military courts-martial of Lt. Col. Oliver North and Vice Adm. John Poindexter [op-ed, Feb. 17] do a disservice to both servicemen and to the public.

Studies of the immune response at the site of disease in extra-pulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB) disease are scarce. In this study, we compared the cellular profile of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb)-specific T cells in pericardial fluid and peripheral blood in patients with pericardial TB (PCTB). Whole blood and pericardial fluid (PCF) samples were collected at the time of diagnostic sampling, with repeat blood sampling after completion of anti-tubercular treatment (ATT) in 16 PCTB patients, most of them being HIV-1 infected (n=14). These samples were stimulated ex vivo and the phenotypic and functional cellular profile of PCF and blood was assessed by flow cytometry. We found that lymphocytes were the predominant cell type in PCF in PCTB, with a preferential influx of CD4 T cells. The frequencies of TNF-α producing Mtb-specific granulocytes and Mtb-specific CD4 T cells were significantly higher in PCF compared to blood. Mtb-specific CD4 T cells in PCF exhibited a distinct phenotype compared to those in blood, with greater GrB expression and lower CD27 and KLRG1 expression. We observed no difference in the production IFNγ, TNF or IL-2 by Mtb-specific CD4 T cells between the two compartments, but MIP-1β production was lower in the PCF T cells. Bacterial loads were not associated with alterations in the phenotype or function of Mtb-specific CD4 T cells. Upon ATT completion, HLA-DR, Ki-67 and GrB expression was significantly decreased, and relative IL-2 production was increased in peripheral Mtb-specific CD4 T cells. Overall, using an ex vivo assay to compare the immune response towards Mtb in PCF and in blood, we identified significant difference in the phenotypic profile of Mtb-specific CD4 T response between these two compartments. Moreover, we show that the activation profile of peripheral Mtb-specific CD4 T cells could be used to monitor treatment response in PCTB.

Gender is emerging as a significant factor in the social, economic, and health effects of COVID-19. However, most existing studies have focused on its direct impact on health. Here, we aimed to explore the indirect effects of COVID-19 on gender disparities globally. We reviewed publicly available datasets with information on indicators related to vaccine hesitancy and uptake, health care services, economic and work-related concerns, education, and safety at home and in the community. We used mixed effects regression, Gaussian process regression, and bootstrapping to synthesise all data sources. We accounted for uncertainty in the underlying data and modelling process. We then used mixed effects logistic regression to explore gender gaps globally and by region. Between March, 2020, and September, 2021, women were more likely to report employment loss (26·0% [95% uncertainty interval 23·8–28·8, by September, 2021) than men (20·4% [18·2–22·9], by September, 2021), as well as forgoing work to care for others (ratio of women to men: 1·8 by March, 2020, and 2·4 by September, 2021). Women and girls were 1·21 times (1·20–1·21) more likely than men and boys to report dropping out of school for reasons other than school closures. Women were also 1·23 (1·22–1·23) times more likely than men to report that gender-based violence had increased during the pandemic. By September 2021, women and men did not differ significantly in vaccine hesitancy or uptake. The most significant gender gaps identified in our study show intensified levels of pre-existing widespread inequalities between women and men during the COVID-19 pandemic. Political and social leaders should prioritise policies that enable and encourage women to participate in the labour force and continue their education, thereby equipping and enabling them with greater ability to overcome the barriers they face. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Surf zones are highly dynamic marine ecosystems that are subject to increasing anthropogenic and climatic pressures, posing multiple challenges for biomonitoring. Traditional methods such as seines and hook and line surveys are often labor intensive, taxonomically biased, and can be physically hazardous. Emerging techniques, such as baited remote underwater video (BRUV) and environmental DNA (eDNA) are promising nondestructive tools for assessing marine biodiversity in surf zones of sandy beaches. Here we compare the relative performance of beach seines, BRUV, and eDNA in characterizing community composition of bony (teleost) and cartilaginous (elasmobranch) fishes of surf zones at 18 open coast sandy beaches in southern California. Seine and BRUV surveys captured overlapping, but distinct fish communities with 50% (18/36) of detected species shared. BRUV surveys more frequently detected larger species (e.g. sharks and rays) while seines more frequently detected one of the most abundant species, barred surfperch ( Amphistichus argenteus ). In contrast, eDNA metabarcoding captured 88.9% (32/36) of all fishes observed in seine and BRUV surveys plus 57 additional species, including 15 that frequent surf zone habitats. On average, eDNA detected over 5 times more species than BRUVs and 8 times more species than seine surveys at a given site. eDNA approaches also showed significantly higher sensitivity than seine and BRUV methods and more consistently detected 31 of the 32 (96.9%) jointly observed species across beaches. The four species detected by BRUV/seines, but not eDNA were only resolved at higher taxonomic ranks (e.g. Embiotocidae surfperches and Sygnathidae pipefishes). In frequent co-detection of species between methods limited comparisons of richness and abundance estimates, highlighting the challenge of comparing biomonitoring approaches. Despite potential for improvement, results overall demonstrate that eDNA can provide a cost-effective tool for long-term surf zone monitoring that complements data from seine and BRUV surveys, allowing more comprehensive surveys of vertebrate diversity in surf zone habitats.