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CDK4/6 inhibition substantially improves progression-free survival (PFS) for women with advanced estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer, although there are no predictive biomarkers. Early changes in circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) level may provide early response prediction, but the impact of tumor heterogeneity is unknown. Here we use plasma samples from patients in the randomized phase III PALOMA-3 study of CDK4/6 inhibitor palbociclib and fulvestrant for women with advanced breast cancer and show that relative change in PIK3CA ctDNA level after 15 days treatment strongly predicts PFS on palbociclib and fulvestrant (hazard ratio 3.94, log-rank p  = 0.0013). ESR1 mutations selected by prior hormone therapy are shown to be frequently sub clonal, with ESR1 ctDNA dynamics offering limited prediction of clinical outcome. These results suggest that early ctDNA dynamics may provide a robust biomarker for CDK4/6 inhibitors, with early ctDNA dynamics demonstrating divergent response of tumor sub clones to treatment. Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) may provide a prediction of treatment response, but could be impacted by tumor heterogeneity. Here, the authors investigate ctDNA in CDK4/6 inhibitor treatment in advanced breast cancer, finding ctDNA levels predict progression-free survival and anticipate clonal selection.

The genomics of advanced breast cancer (ABC) has been described through tumour tissue biopsy sequencing, although these approaches are limited by geographical and temporal heterogeneity. Here we use plasma circulating tumour DNA sequencing to interrogate the genomic profile of ABC in 800 patients in the plasmaMATCH trial. We demonstrate diverse subclonal resistance mutations, including enrichment of HER2 mutations in HER2 positive disease, co-occurring ESR1 and MAP kinase pathway mutations in HR + HER2− disease that associate with poor overall survival ( p  = 0.0092), and multiple PIK3CA mutations in HR + disease that associate with short progression free survival on fulvestrant ( p  = 0.0036). The fraction of cancer with a mutation, the clonal dominance of a mutation, varied between genes, and within hotspot mutations of ESR1 and PIK3CA . In ER-positive breast cancer subclonal mutations were enriched in an APOBEC mutational signature, with second hit PIK3CA mutations acquired subclonally and at sites characteristic of APOBEC mutagenesis. This study utilises circulating tumour DNA analysis in a large clinical trial to demonstrate the subclonal diversification of pre-treated advanced breast cancer, identifying distinct mutational processes in advanced ER-positive breast cancer, and novel therapeutic opportunities. Circulating tumour DNA can provide useful information on disease burden. Here, the authors analysed circulating tumour DNA from 800 patients from a breast cancer clinical trial and investigate the subclonal nature of the disease, and identify DNA mutations associated with resistance and poor survival.

Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) analysis has the potential to allow non-invasive analysis of tumor mutations in advanced cancer. In this study we assessed the reproducibility of digital PCR (dPCR) assays of circulating tumor DNA in a cohort of patients with advanced breast cancer and assessed delayed plasma processing using cell free DNA preservative tubes. We recruited a cohort of 96 paired samples from 71 women with advanced breast cancer who had paired blood samples processed either immediately or delayed in preservative tubes with processing 48-72 hours after collection. Plasma DNA was analysed with multiplex digital PCR (mdPCR) assays for hotspot mutations in PIK3CA, ESR1 and ERBB2, and for AKT1 E17K. There was 94.8% (91/96) agreement in mutation calling between immediate and delayed processed tubes, kappa 0.88 95% CI 0.77-0.98). Discordance in mutation calling resulted from low allele frequency and likely stochastic effects. In concordant samples there was high correlation in mutant copies per ml plasma (r2 = 0.98; p<0.0001). There was elevation of total cell free plasma DNA concentrations in 10.3% of delayed processed tubes, although overall quantification of total cell free plasma DNA had similar prognostic effects in immediate (HR 3.6) and delayed (HR 3.0) tubes. There was moderate agreement in changes in allele fraction between sequential samples in quantitative mutation tracking (r = 0.84, p = 0.0002). Delayed processing of samples using preservative tubes allows for centralized ctDNA digital PCR mutation screening in advanced breast cancer. The potential of preservative tubes in quantitative mutation tracking requires further research.

Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) assays are increasingly used for clinical decision-making, but it is unknown how well different assays agree. We aimed to assess the agreement in ctDNA mutation calling between BEAMing (beads, emulsion, amplification, and magnetics) and droplet digital PCR (ddPCR), 2 of the most commonly used digital PCR techniques for detecting mutations in ctDNA. Baseline plasma samples from patients with advanced breast cancer enrolled in the phase 3 PALOMA-3 trial were assessed for and mutations in ctDNA with both BEAMing and ddPCR. Concordance between the 2 approaches was assessed, with exploratory analyses to estimate the importance of sampling effects. Of the 521 patients enrolled, 363 had paired baseline ctDNA analysis. mutation detection was 24.2% (88/363) for BEAMing and 25.3% (92/363) for ddPCR, with good agreement between the 2 techniques (κ = 0.9l; 95% CI, 0.85-0.95). mutation detection rates were 26.2% (95/363) for BEAMing and 22.9% (83/363) for ddPCR, with good agreement (κ = 0.87; 95% CI, 0.81-0.93). Discordancy was observed for 3.9% patients with mutations and 5.0% with mutations. Assessment of individual mutations suggested higher rates of discordancy for less common mutations ( = 0.019). The majority of discordant calls occurred at allele frequency <1%, predominantly resulting from stochastic sampling effects. This large, clinically relevant comparison showed good agreement between BEAMing and ddPCR, suggesting sufficient reproducibility for clinical use. Much of the observed discordancy may be related to sampling effects, potentially explaining many of the differences in the currently available ctDNA literature.

PIK3CA is one of the two most frequently mutated genes in breast cancers, occurring in 30–40% of cases. Four frequent ‘hotspot’ PIK3CA mutations (E542K, E545K, H1047R and H1047L) account for 80–90% of all PIK3CA mutations in human malignancies and represent predictive biomarkers. Here we describe a PIK3CA mutation specific nuclease-based enrichment assay, which combined with a low-cost real-time qPCR detection method, enhances assay detection sensitivity from 5% for E542K and 10% for E545K to 0.6%, and from 5% for H1047R to 0.3%. Moreover, we present a novel flexible prediction method to calculate initial mutant allele frequency in tissue biopsy and blood samples with low mutant fraction. These advancements demonstrated a quick, accurate and simple detection and quantitation of PIK3CA mutations in two breast cancer cohorts (first cohort n = 22, second cohort n = 25). Hence this simple, versatile and informative workflow could be applicable for routine diagnostic testing where quantitative results are essential, e.g. disease monitoring subject to validation in a substantial future study.