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"Beaumont, Paul"
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A joint impulse response function for vector autoregressive models
Many applications call for measuring the response due to shocks from several variables at once. We introduce a joint impulse response function (jIRF) that is independent of the order of the variables and allows for simultaneous shocks from multiple variables in the VAR, rather than one at a time as in the generalized IRF. The proposed jIRF controls for the cross-correlations of the several simultaneous shocks. As an application of the jIRF, we study the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on trans-Atlantic volatility transmissions across large financial institutions and show that simply summing the generalized IRFs overestimates volatility transmissions.
Journal Article
Judgments Convention: Application to Governments
The Hague Judgments Convention 2019 makes the classic distinction between private law matters within its scope (civil or commercial matters) and public law matters outside its scope. It also follows the same position in relation to State immunity used in the Hague Choice of Court Convention 2005 (see Art. 2(5) in 2019 and 2(6) in 2005). The innovative parts of the 2019 Convention relate to the exclusions from scope in Article 2 relating to the armed forces, law enforcement activities and unilateral debt restructuring. Finally, in Article 19, the Convention creates a new declaration system permitting States to widen the exclusion from scope to some private law judgments concerning a State, or a State agency or a natural person acting for the State or a Government agency. This article gives guidance on the correct Treaty interpretation of all these matters taking full account of the work of the Hague Informal Working Group dealing with the application of the Convention to Governments and the other relevant supplementary means of interpretation referred to in Article 32 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties.
Journal Article
Rational Illusions: Everyday Theories of International Status and the Domestic Politics of Boer War
Existing research has documented that status-seeking abounds in world politics. Yet the status hierarchies to which states respond and compete within are notoriously ambiguous and difficult to empirically ascertain. This ambiguity has begotten considerable disagreement among scholars over the nature of international hierarchies. Making a strength out of this slipperiness, this article posits that international status can be studied via the everyday theories of status that governments and their opponents themselves produce and use to interpret their state’s status. Treating these everyday theories as productive of the world they purport to describe, such an approach foregrounds the interpretative agency of domestic groups to develop and maintain “hierarchies of their own making,” which need not be recognized internationally to become crucial for policy legitimation domestically. In order to study such everyday theories’ systematically, the article develops a new meta-linguistic framework for identifying and mapping their use within domestic politics. Via a case study on the Boer War (1899–1902), the article shows how domestic battles over what international status is can shape domestic politics and policy outcomes.
Journal Article
Efficient Synthesis of an Aluminum Amidoborane Ammoniate
A novel species of metal amidoborane ammoniate, [Al(NH2BH3)63−][Al(NH3)63+] has been successfully synthesized in up to 95% via the one-step reaction of AlH3·OEt2 with liquid NH3BH3·nNH3 (n = 1~6) at 0 °C. This solution based reaction method provides an alternative pathway to the traditional mechano-chemical ball milling methods, avoiding possible decomposition. MAS 27Al NMR spectroscopy confirms the formulation of the compound as an Al(NH2BH3)63− complex anion and an Al(NH3)63+ cation. Initial dehydrogenation studies of this aluminum based M-N-B-H compound demonstrate that hydrogen is released at temperatures as low as 65 °C, totaling ~8.6 equivalents of H2 (10.3 wt %) upon heating to 105 °C. This method of synthesis offers a promising route towards the large scale production of metal amidoborane ammoniate moieties.
Journal Article
Time Series Simulation with Randomized Quasi-Monte Carlo Methods: An Application to Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall
Quasi-Monte Carlo methods are designed to produce efficient estimates of simulated values but the error statistics of these estimates are difficult to compute. Randomized quasi-Monte Carlo methods have been developed to address this shortcoming. In this paper we compare quasi-Monte Carlo and randomized quasi-Monte Carlo techniques for simulating time series. We use randomized quasi-Monte Carlo to compute value-at-risk and expected shortfall measures for a stock portfolio whose returns follow a highly nonlinear Markov switching stochastic volatility model which does not admit analytical solutions for the returns distribution. Quasi-Monte Carlo methods are more accurate but do not allow the computation of reliable confidence intervals about risk measures. We find that randomized quasi-Monte Carlo methods maintain many of the advantages of quasi-Monte Carlo while also providing the ability to produce reliable confidence intervals of the simulated risk measures. However, the advantages in speed of convergence of randomized quasi-Monte Carlo diminish as the forecast horizon increases.
Journal Article
CHILD ABDUCTION: RECENT JURISPRUDENCE OF THE EUROPEAN COURT OF HUMAN RIGHTS
This article examines how the European Court of Human Rights has clarified its jurisprudence on how the 1980 Hague Child Abduction Convention Article 13 exceptions are to be applied in a manner that is consistent with Article 8 of the European Convention on Human Rights. It also analyses recent case law of the European Court of Human Rights on how the courts in the EU are to handle child abduction cases where the courts of the habitual residence have made use of their power under Article 11 of Brussels IIa.
Journal Article
Brexit and EU Legitimation: Unwitting Martyr for the Cause?
Drawing upon emerging trends across Europe, this essay argues that the painful learning Britain undergoes via Brexit, looks set to become a useful lesson for the rest of the EU. Not unlike how Europe's bloody past once served as shorthand for justifying the EU's existence, should Brexit continue to humiliate Britain and result in recession, it will provide a new and powerful symbolic resource capable of legitimating membership and making up for the EU's democratic deficit. As such, Britain looks set to become an unwitting martyr for the EU cause. Contrary to the prevailing wisdom then, a no-deal Brexit may be the optimum outcome for the EU because it would best illuminate the folly of leaving and therefore publicly crystalize the benefits of membership.
Journal Article
Grading greatness: evaluating the status performance of the BRICS
An impressive portfolio of case-study research has now demonstrated how and through what means the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) countries have sought higher social status. However, this field of research lacks systematic means of evaluating this status-seeking. This article fills this lacuna by developing a mixed-methods framework enabling scholars to zoom in and compare individual states' relative status performance. Using diplomatic representation as a proxy for status recognition and comparing it to a country's status resources (wealth), the framework indicates how successfully countries have generated recognition from the international society. The findings show that China's economic ascent has been matched by increased recognition, and that South Africa enjoyed an almost immediate 'status bounce' following apartheid, turning it from a pariah to a significant overperformer. Russia should be understood as an 'overperforming status-dissatisfied power' while India's status performance has been around 'par' for a country of its economic resources. Lastly, Brazil underperforms more than any of the other BRICS, especially since its democratic transition. The findings highlight considerable variance in the type and duration of gaps between status resource and recognition and suggests that rather than treating these as 'inconsistencies' awaiting correction, they can and should be accounted for by case study analyses.
Journal Article
Brexit Futures: Between a Model and a Martyr: An Addendum to ‘Brexit and EU Legitimation’
Brexit has a habit of rendering research redundant rapidly. Since I wrote ‘Brexit and EU Legitimation: Martyr for the EU Cause?’ (published in New Perspectives vol. 27 [3]), Boris Johnson has won a large majority on the back of his promise to ‘Get Brexit Done’ and his ability to pass a withdrawal agreement. As such the chances of a no-deal Brexit have receded (for now). This has not rendered my analysis obsolete, but reflecting upon Johnson’s slogan has led me to realise that my analysis could be broadened. In this addendum, I flesh out what is left ambiguous in the article and develop a more holistic framework for analysing the discursive effects of Brexit. In doing so, I make the argument that for the European Union (EU), Brexit will never be ‘done’, at least for the EU. Instead, Britain’s fortunes look set to become a bellwether for soft Eurosceptics considering turning hard. The extent to which Britain is perceived to bask in the ‘sunlit uplands’ or, conversely, to suffer economic and/or political disaster as a consequence of leaving the EU will inform whether Britain is used as a ‘model’ or a ‘martyr’ at any given time. Thus, Britain’s fortunes have thus become inextricably linked to the EU.
Journal Article