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"Beckett, Rebecca"
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Severity influences categorical likelihood communications: A case study with Southeast Asian weather forecasters
Risk assessments are common in multiple domains, from finance to medicine. They require evaluating an event’s potential severity and likelihood. We investigate the possible dependence of likelihood and severity within the domain of impact-based weather forecasting (IBF), following predictions derived from considering asymmetric loss functions. In a collaboration between UK psychologists and partners from four meteorological organisations in Southeast Asia, we conducted two studies (
N
= 363) eliciting weather warnings from forecasters. Forecasters provided warnings denoting higher likelihoods for high severity impacts than low severity impacts, despite these impacts being described as having the same explicit numerical likelihood of occurrence. This ‘Severity effect’ is pervasive, and we find it can have a continued influence even for an updated forecast. It is additionally observed when translating warnings made on a risk matrix to numerical probabilities.
Journal Article
A Subjective and Objective Evaluation of Model Forecasts of Sumatra Squall Events
Sumatra squalls are important rain-bearing weather systems that affect Singapore and southern Peninsular Malaysia. The performance of forecasts for 63 past squall events is evaluated using a subjective evaluation by forecasters and an objective evaluation based on the fractions skill score (FSS). The purpose of this study is to investigate whether an objective procedure can reproduce the main results of the subjective evaluation. A convection permitting version of the Met Office (UKMO) Unified Model (UM), configured for a limited domain in the southern region of the South China Sea, is used with two driving global deterministic models: the UM and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model. Subjective and objective evaluation scoring methods for the two limited-area forecasts of the UM are compared, and it is shown that the objective procedure can reasonably emulate the scores produced by the forecasters in the context of parameters that are of direct relevance to the forecast process. This indicates that automated objective verification methods may be a reasonable alternative to resource intensive subjective evaluations for some cases. The robustness of the objective results is investigated using 7 months of data, and issues of statistical significance are considered.
Journal Article
Mystery surrounds showrooms closure
The [KEN Thorne] Group sponsors Cardiff City and the Cardiff Devils ice hockey team. Devils managing director Bill Buglass said: \"This season the Ken Thorne Group has supplied us with 10 Chrysler Cherokee Jeeps for our import players as a sponsorship deal. CLOSED FOR BUSINESS The Ken Thorne Group's offices on Penarth Road, Cardiff on Saturday.
Newspaper Article
Mystery surrounds showrooms closure
Group sales director and Mr [KEN Thorne]'s son Chris spent Saturday in private business meetings at the group's Whittle Road service centre. The BP garage in Hadfield Road says it has stopped its dealings with the business. A member of staff said: \"We had an account with the Ken Thorne Group which we have now closed.\" The Ken Thorne Group sponsors Cardiff City and the Cardiff Devils ice hockey team. Devils managing director Bill Buglass said: \"This season the Ken Thorne Group has supplied us with 10 Chrysler Cherokee Jeeps for our import players as a sponsorship deal.
Newspaper Article
Citigroup, Microsoft Sign Pact On Internet Money Transfers --- Deal Will Allow MSN Network Users to Send Funds Via E-Mail --- C2it Will Be Offered Internationally
Under the terms of the agreement, Citigroup, the largest U.S. financial-services company, will offer its \"c2it\" online money-transfer system, branded with Microsoft's MSN name, to users of the MSN network of Web services, including online auction and shopping services as well as the Hotmail free e-mail service. About 230 million users visit MSN monthly, the companies said. Many users will be preapproved to use the service to cut down on the hassle of extensive online application forms. The agreement also allows for Citigroup to advertise on Microsoft Internet services. More broadly, Microsoft is on a mission to beef up MSN and add subscribers to the MSN Internet-access service, Microsoft's main vehicle to compete against the America Online unit of AOL Time Warner Inc.
Newspaper Article
Citigroup, Microsoft Sign Pact Allowing Online Money Transfers
Under the terms of the agreement, Citigroup, the nation's largest financial-services company, will offer its \"c2it\" online money-transfer system, branded with Microsoft's MSN name, to users of the MSN network of Web services, including online auction and shopping services as well as the Hotmail free e-mail service. With the new Citigroup-Microsoft pact, a sender enrolls in the program, gives instructions as to how much money to transfer, details of the account or card to be debited and the recipient's e-mail address. Recipients receive an e-mail saying money is waiting for them; they must sign on to the service to give instructions as to which of their accounts they want directly credited. Recipients also have the option of ordering a check to be mailed to them. The agreement in many ways mirrors one Citigroup struck last fall with America Online. Citigroup also has signed a new deal with AuctionWatch to provide payment services for the online auction service. And the company plans to expand c2it to international person-to-person payments, beginning with 30 countries in mid-May.
Newspaper Article
SEC's Levitt Warns Analysts on Certain Trades
Mr. Levitt, who raised the issue in a speech more than a week ago, made no bones about how seriously he views the practice. \"If analysts or their firms are trading-knowing this information and prior to public release -- it's just as wrong as if corporate insiders did it,\" he said in Friday's speech. The reality, though, is that however unfair it may appear, the law governing the widespread practice of giving news to analysts before issuing a news release operates on murky legal ground -- a point which Mr. Levitt himself acknowledged. To bring cases where it believes a violation of the prohibition against such \"selective disclosure\" has taken place, the SEC must depend largely on the antifraud provisions of the securities laws that prohibit insider trading. But those cases stick only when there is a duty owed between two parties not to trade on material, nonpublic information and to keep that information confidential. Nonetheless, SEC Chairman Levitt's warning about selective disclosure may be enough to prompt reforms in the practice, some observers say, both by the companies that disclose the information and the analysts who use it. Moreover, SEC officials say they are watching the issue closely, leading some observers to speculate that the enforcement division may be under pressure to wade into the legal quagmire and bring at least a few cases where they believe evidence of wrongdoing is clear. Since there are so many ethical questions hanging over the practice, the defendants in those cases may move quickly to settle rather than expose themselves to unfavorable publicity.
Newspaper Article
Education: Notebook
David Hirsh, a sociology lecturer at Goldsmiths College, who runs a website dedicated to opposing the campaign for an academic boycott of Israel, has identified the main issue in the election for general secretary of the University and College Union: the crimes of Joseph Stalin. Hirsh devotes half an article to this sub ject, because Roger Kline's father was a Jewish communist in the 1950s. He mentions that Kline himself was a member of the Socialist Workers' party, but omits to point out that his break with this organisation occurred 32 years ago. Both main candidates oppose a boycott, but while Hirsh supplies a link to Sally Hunt's full statement about it, when it comes to Kline, he offers only a link to a Socialist Workers article supporting him. Elections can turn dirty, but this one is positively glutinous.
Newspaper Article