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Oceanic islands are considered the classic arenas for allopatric speciation and adaptive radiation. Established concepts of speciation and endemism are strongly focused on spatial and temporal scales. However, biotic interactions and ecological drivers, although widely recognized as playing a role, still need to be integrated into our understanding of these processes. Here, I highlight ecosystems as the evolutionary arena within islands. Ecosystem functioning, such as the regulation of abiotic fluxes of energy and matter, has been intensely studied in the context of climate change and biodiversity loss. Biogeography, on the other hand, when it focuses on speciation and endemism, often lacks a functional understanding of the ecosystem beyond species lists. This contribution aims to stimulate a stronger integration of ecological processes, assembly rules, and vegetation structures into future biogeographical and macroecological studies.

Habitat loss from anthropogenic development has led to an unprecedented decline in global biodiversity. Protected areas (PAs) exist to counteract this degradation of ecosystems. In the European Union, the Natura 2000 (N2k) network is the basis for continent-wide conservation efforts. N2k is the world’s largest coordinated network of protected areas. However, threats to ecosystems do not stop at the borders of PAs. As measured by a landscape fragmentation metric, anthropogenic development can affect the interiors of PAs. To ensure the long-term viability of the N2k network of PAs, this paper attempts to quantify the degree to which N2k sites are insulated from development pressures. We use a comprehensive dataset of effective mesh density ( seff ) to measure aggregate fragmentation inside and within a 5 km buffer surrounding N2k sites. Our results show a strong correlation (R² = 0.78) between fragmentation ( seff ) within and around N2k sites. This result applies to all biogeographical regions in Europe. Only a narrow majority (58.5%) of N2k sites are less fragmented than their surroundings. Remote and mountainous regions in northern Europe, the Alps, parts of Spain, and parts of eastern Europe show the lowest levels of fragmentation. These regions tend to hold the largest N2k sites as measured by area. In contrast, central and western Europe show the highest fragmentation levels within and around N2k sites. 24.5% of all N2k sites are classified as highly to very-highly fragmented. N2k PA age since initial protection does not correlate with the difference in exterior and interior fragmentation of N2k PAs. These results indicate that PAs in Europe are not sheltered from anthropogenic pressures leading to fragmentation. Hence, we argue that there is a high potential for improving PA efficacy by taking pre-emptive action against encroaching anthropogenic fragmentation and by targeting scarce financial resources where fragmentation pressures can be mitigated through enforced construction bans inside PAs.

Protected areas (PA) are refugia of biodiversity. However, anthropogenic climate change induces a redistribution of life on Earth that affects the effectiveness of PAs. When species are forced to migrate from protected to unprotected areas to track suitable climate, they often face degraded habitats in human-dominated landscapes and a higher extinction threat. Here, we assess how climate conditions are expected to shift within the world’s terrestrial PAs ( n  = 137,432). PAs in the temperate and northern high-latitude biomes are predicted to obtain especially high area proportions of climate conditions that are novel within the PA network at the local, regional and global scale by the end of this century. These PAs are predominantly small, at low elevation, with low environmental heterogeneity, high human pressure, and low biotic uniqueness. Our results guide adaptation measures towards PAs that are strongly affected by climate change, and of low adaption capacity and high conservation value. Protected areas are important refugia for wildlife, so if climate conditions within them change, wildlife could lose critical suitable habitat. Here the authors calculate the projected gain and loss of climate conditions within terrestrial protected areas worldwide.

Habitat loss from anthropogenic development has led to an unprecedented decline in global biodiversity. Protected areas (PAs) exist to counteract this degradation of ecosystems. In the European Union, the Natura 2000 (N2k) network is the basis for continent-wide conservation efforts. N2k is the world’s largest coordinated network of protected areas. However, threats to ecosystems do not stop at the borders of PAs. As measured by a landscape fragmentation metric, anthropogenic development can affect the interiors of PAs. To ensure the long-term viability of the N2k network of PAs, this paper attempts to quantify the degree to which N2k sites are insulated from development pressures. We use a comprehensive dataset of effective mesh density (seff) to measure aggregate fragmentation inside and within a 5 km buffer surrounding N2k sites. Our results show a strong correlation (R² = 0.78) between fragmentation (seff) within and around N2k sites. This result applies to all biogeographical regions in Europe. Only a narrow majority (58.5%) of N2k sites are less fragmented than their surroundings. Remote and mountainous regions in northern Europe, the Alps, parts of Spain, and parts of eastern Europe show the lowest levels of fragmentation. These regions tend to hold the largest N2k sites as measured by area. In contrast, central and western Europe show the highest fragmentation levels within and around N2k sites. 24.5% of all N2k sites are classified as highly to very-highly fragmented. N2k PA age since initial protection does not correlate with the difference in exterior and interior fragmentation of N2k PAs. These results indicate that PAs in Europe are not sheltered from anthropogenic pressures leading to fragmentation. Hence, we argue that there is a high potential for improving PA efficacy by taking pre-emptive action against encroaching anthropogenic fragmentation and by targeting scarce financial resources where fragmentation pressures can be mitigated through enforced construction bans inside PAs.

Mosquito-borne diseases (MBDs) are increasingly prevalent as a result of global change, with significant health and economic impacts worldwide. Dengue virus (DENV), chikungunya virus (CHIKV), Zika virus (ZIKV), yellow fever virus (YFV), Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) and West Nile virus (WNV) transmitted by Aedes and Culex species have been identified as arboviruses of public health interest. Vertical transmission (VT) which refers to a process where infected mosquitoes transmit viruses to their offsprings have been often overlooked in MBD epidemiology. We conducted a systematic review to evaluate the role of VT in the occurrence, prevenance and spread of MBDs, focusing on study types, mosquito species and virus genera. 175 studies selected from 837 studies between 1950 and 2024 relating to VT in mosquito population were reviewed. Findings revealed that VT occur across multiple mosquito species in natural and experimental settings, with significant variation in VT rates, depending on vector species, virus genus, and study location. Ae. aegypti , Ae. albopictus , Ae. vexans , Cx.pipiens , Cx. tarsalis and Cx. quinquefasciatus were identified as mosquito species that support VT while pathogens identified to be transmitted vertically were DENV, ZIKV, WNV, CHIKV, YFV, Sindbis virus (SINV), Ross River virus (RRV) and Mayaro virus (MAYV). VT rates reported as minimum infection rate (MIR) varied across mosquito species, study type and location. It was also reported that high VT rate may precede mosquito-borne disease outbreak. These findings indicate that VT, though often overlooked, contributes to the dynamics of MBD transmission and could influence disease outbreaks and endemism, especially under changing climatic conditions. These findings also highlight the need to incorporate VT into mathematical models, experimental studies and control strategies, given its potential role in sustaining arbovirus transmission and influencing outbreak dynamics. Graphical abstract

Grassland ecosystems are affected by the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climate events (e.g., droughts). Understanding how grassland ecosystems maintain their functioning, resistance, and resilience under climatic perturbations is a topic of current concern. Resistance is the capacity of an ecosystem to withstand change against extreme climate, while resilience is the ability of an ecosystem to return to its original state after a perturbation. Using the growing season Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI gs , an index of vegetation growth) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (a drought index), we evaluated the response, resistance, and resilience of vegetation to climatic conditions for alpine grassland, grass-dominated steppe, hay meadow, arid steppe, and semi-arid steppe in northern China for the period 1982–2012. The results show that NDVI gs varied significantly across these grasslands, with the highest (lowest) NDVI gs values in alpine grassland (semi-arid steppe). We found increasing trends of greenness in alpine grassland, grass-dominated steppe, and hay meadow, while there were no detectable changes of NDVI gs in arid and semi-arid steppes. NDVI gs decreased with increasing dryness from extreme wet to extreme dry. Alpine and steppe grasslands exhibited higher resistance to and lower resilience after extreme wet, while lower resistance to and higher resilience after extreme dry conditions. No significant differences in resistance and resilience of hay meadow under climatic conditions suggest the stability of this grassland under climatic perturbations. This study concludes that highly resistant grasslands under conditions of water surplus are low resilient, but low resistant ecosystems under conditions of water shortage are highly resilient.

Climate change impacts the structure, functioning, and distribution of species and ecosystems. It will shift ecosystem boundaries, potentially affecting vulnerable ecosystems, such as tropical Africa's high mountain ecosystems, i.e., afroalpine ecosystems, and their highly susceptible uniquely adapted species. However, ecosystems along these mountains are not expected to respond similarly to the change. The ericaceous woody vegetation, located between the low-elevation broadleaf forests and high-elevation afroalpine vegetation, are anticipated to be affected differently. We hypothesize that projected climate change will result in an upward expansion and increasing dominance of ericaceous vegetation, which will negatively impact the endemic rich afroalpine ecosystems of the extensive Sanetti plateau. Hence, we modeled the impact of future climate change on the distribution of ericaceous vegetation and discussed its effect on bordering ecosystems in the Bale Mountains. We applied four familiar correlative modeling approaches: bioclim, domain, generalized linear methods, and support vector machines. We used WorldClim’s bioclimatic variables as environmental predictors and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report climate change scenarios, namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for future climate projection. The results indicate increased ericaceous vegetation cover on the midaltitude of northwestern and northern parts of the massif, and the Sanetti plateau. We observed upward range expansion and increase of close ericaceous vegetation in midaltitudes, while receding from the lower range across the massif. Moreover, the current ericaceous vegetation range correlates to the temperature and precipitation trends, reaffirming the critical role of temperature and precipitation in determining species distributions along elevational gradients. The results indicate the high likelihood of considerable changes in this biodiversity hotspot in Eastern Africa.

This study examines the vulnerability of Madagascar’s protected areas (PAs) to climate change, focusing on climate change velocity, and its impact on biodiversity. We analyzed current and near future climate data using principal component analysis (PCA) and climate change velocity metrics to predict shifts in climatic conditions from the present to the near future, while under the mild and extreme emission scenarios (SSP 126, SSP 585). Forward velocities, which are characterized by the minimum distances that must be overcome by species to keep in track with their appropriate comparative climate, are most pronounced in western and southern Madagascar. In contrast, the backward velocity, which uses future climatic conditions in grid cells in comparison to current conditions, is more common in the eastern regions of the island, and hints at the minimum distance that organisms would have to overcome in colonizing a new habitat. Even though the correlations between PA size and climate change velocity are weak, there is a tendency for larger PAs to exhibit more stable climatic conditions. Conservation strategies must prioritize enhancing the resilience of PAs through adaptive management to mitigate climate impacts. Our findings provide crucial insights for policymakers and conservation planners to develop climate-smart strategies that ensure the long-term efficacy of Madagascar’s PA network.

Data from experiments that manipulated grassland biodiversity across Europe and North America show that biodiversity increases an ecosystem’s resistance to, although not resilience after, climate extremes. Biodiversity loss threatens ecosystem reliability Tests to establish whether biodiversity buffers ecosystems against extreme climate events have produced strongly contrasting results. Forest Isbell et al . combine data from 46 experiments that manipulated grassland plant diversity and measured productivity across Europe and North America and find that yes, biodiversity does increase an ecosystem's resistance to climate extremes. Plots with just a few species had their productivity reduced by 50% during climate extremes, whereas this effect was halved with a greater number of species. However, biodiversity had no discernible effect on the ecosystem resilience, with both low and high biodiversity treatments recovering from climate extremes within a year. It remains unclear whether biodiversity buffers ecosystems against climate extremes, which are becoming increasingly frequent worldwide 1 . Early results suggested that the ecosystem productivity of diverse grassland plant communities was more resistant, changing less during drought, and more resilient, recovering more quickly after drought, than that of depauperate communities 2 . However, subsequent experimental tests produced mixed results 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 , 13 . Here we use data from 46 experiments that manipulated grassland plant diversity to test whether biodiversity provides resistance during and resilience after climate events. We show that biodiversity increased ecosystem resistance for a broad range of climate events, including wet or dry, moderate or extreme, and brief or prolonged events. Across all studies and climate events, the productivity of low-diversity communities with one or two species changed by approximately 50% during climate events, whereas that of high-diversity communities with 16–32 species was more resistant, changing by only approximately 25%. By a year after each climate event, ecosystem productivity had often fully recovered, or overshot, normal levels of productivity in both high- and low-diversity communities, leading to no detectable dependence of ecosystem resilience on biodiversity. Our results suggest that biodiversity mainly stabilizes ecosystem productivity, and productivity-dependent ecosystem services, by increasing resistance to climate events. Anthropogenic environmental changes that drive biodiversity loss thus seem likely to decrease ecosystem stability 14 , and restoration of biodiversity to increase it, mainly by changing the resistance of ecosystem productivity to climate events.

Our planet is facing significant changes of biodiversity across spatial scales. Although the negative effects of local biodiversity (α diversity) loss on ecosystem stability are well documented, the consequences of biodiversity changes at larger spatial scales, in particular biotic homogenization, that is, reduced species turnover across space (β diversity), remain poorly known. Using data from 39 grassland biodiversity experiments, we examine the effects of β diversity on the stability of simulated landscapes while controlling for potentially confounding biotic and abiotic factors. Our results show that higher β diversity generates more asynchronous dynamics among local communities and thereby contributes to the stability of ecosystem productivity at larger spatial scales. We further quantify the relative contributions of α and β diversity to ecosystem stability and find a relatively stronger effect of α diversity, possibly due to the limited spatial scale of our experiments. The stabilizing effects of both α and β diversity lead to a positive diversity–stability relationship at the landscape scale. Our findings demonstrate the destabilizing effect of biotic homogenization and suggest that biodiversity should be conserved at multiple spatial scales to maintain the stability of ecosystem functions and services.