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Many forest specialist birds are in widespread decline across Europe. In Britain, marsh tits are an indicator species of mature native woodlands, but have suffered an 81% population decline since the 1960s. We assessed whether habitat degradation during the mid 20th century, through the widespread conversion of native deciduous woodland to conifer plantations, could have impacted marsh tit populations. We surveyed the recent number of occupied marsh tit territories in 74 discrete woodland patches (‘woods') of 1–296 ha in England, comprising purely native deciduous woodland or with varying coverages of conifer plantations (0–89%). We found that the number of marsh tit territories increased with the woods' size, but this increase was significantly greater for deciduous woods, and lower for woods with a greater proportion of conifer plantation. The area of woodland in the local landscape, reflecting a wood's isolation, had no significant effect on marsh tit abundance in a focal wood. The results indicated that the historical conversion of native deciduous woodland to conifer plantation likely degraded a substantial proportion of formerly high‐quality habitat for marsh tits, affecting up to 37.3% of potentially suitable woods and possibly one‐fifth of the former marsh tit population directly, likely contributing to the species' national decline. Many of the larger coniferized woodlands are in public/state ownership, which could facilitate habitat restoration for the conservation of woodland specialists, like marsh tits, via centralized policies, with additional incentives targeted at woodlands in private ownership. We cautiously estimated that restoration of native woodland could re‐establish a median of 24 610 marsh tit territories in Britain, equivalent to an additional 86% of the current national population.

Large-scale climate processes influence many aspects of ecology including breeding phenology, reproductive success and survival across a wide range of taxa. Some effects are direct, for example, in temperate-zone birds, ambient temperature is an important cue enabling breeding effort to coincide with maximum food availability, and earlier breeding in response to warmer springs has been documented in many species. In other cases, time-lags of up to several years in ecological responses have been reported, with effects mediated through biotic mechanisms such as growth rates or abundance of food supplies. Here we use 23 years of data for a temperate woodland bird species, the great tit (Parus major), breeding in deciduous woodland in eastern England to demonstrate a time-lagged linear relationship between the on-set of egg laying and the winter index of the North Atlantic Oscillation such that timing can be predicted from the winter index for the previous year. Thus the timing of bird breeding (and, by inference, the timing of spring events in general) can be predicted one year in advance. We also show that the relationship with the winter index appears to arise through an abiotic time-lag with local spring warmth in our study area. Examining this link between local conditions and larger-scale processes in the longer-term showed that, in the past, significant relationships with the immediately preceding winter index were more common than those with the time-lagged index, and especially so from the late 1930s to the early 1970s. However, from the mid 1970s onwards, the time-lagged relationship has become the most significant, suggesting a recent change in climate patterns. The strength of the current time-lagged relationship suggests that it might have relevance for other temperature-dependent ecological relationships.

Changes in large‐scale land use may fragment and degrade habitats, affecting animal species adapted to these habitats. In the UK uplands for example, changes in sheep and game management, and afforestation, have altered the configuration of internationally important moorland habitat and are predicted to have increased predation pressure for a globally unique suite of breeding birds of international conservation importance. Some of these upland bird species have declined, with particular concern over ground‐nesting waders. Using resurveys of the rapidly declining Eurasian curlew Numenius arquata as a focal species of global conservation concern, we investigate whether upland land use predicts low nesting success and population decline. Curlew population changes over an 8‐ to 10‐year period were positively related to gamekeeper density (a surrogate of predator control intensity) and inversely to the area of woodland surrounding sites, as a likely source of predators to adjacent open ground. Model predictions suggest that increasing woodland cover from 0% to 10% of the land area within 1 km of populated sites requires an increase in human predator control effort of about 48%, to a level associated with high‐intensity grouse production, to achieve curlew population stability. Curlew nesting success, known to be a key driver of population trends, was also positively related to gamekeeper density and inversely to woodland area surrounding sites, providing a plausible mechanistic link between land use and population change. Synthesis and applications. Upland land use is associated with curlew declines, with predation a likely mechanism, and this may apply to other breeding waders. The removal of isolated woodland plantations from otherwise unafforested landscapes may help reduce predation pressure across a range of systems including moorland. However, direct predator control may also be important to conserve ground‐nesting birds in these landscapes, for example, where moorland management and forestry coexist as major land uses. Predator control may also mitigate climate change effects by enhancing wader productivity, particularly where climate effects coincide with changing land use. Emerging land uses in open landscapes, including native woodland restoration and wind farms, require careful siting to minimize further impacts on open‐area breeding birds.

To use an existing database from a large cohort study with follow-up as long as 5.5 years to assess the extended prognosis of patients who survived their hospitalizations for severe acute respiratory failure (ARF). Secondary analysis of an inception cohort of 1,722 patients with ARF requiring mechanical ventilation from five major medical centers who were entered into the prospective Study to Understand Prognoses and Preferences for Outcomes and Risks of Treatment. The 1,075 patients (62.4%) who survived hospitalization had systematic follow-up of vital status for a median time of 662 days (interquartile range, 327 to 1,049 days; range, 2 to 2,014 days). Interviews performed a median of 5 months after hospital discharge assessed functional capacity and quality of life (QOL). The main outcome measure was survival after hospital discharge. Secondary measures were functional status and QOL. Cox proportional hazard regression identified factors influencing posthospital survival. The median survival time after hospital discharge for ARF was > 5.3 years. The posthospital survival time was shorter for those with older age, male gender, several preexisting comorbid conditions, worse prehospital functional status, greater acute physiologic derangement, and a do-not-resuscitate order while in the hospital, and for those discharged to a location other than home. Five months after hospital discharge, 48% of survivors needed help with at least one activity of daily living, and 27% rated their QOL as poor or fair. However, most of these impairments were present before respiratory failure occurred. Extended survival is common among patients with ARF who require mechanical ventilation and who survive hospitalization. Among these patients, only a small fraction of the impairment in activity and QOL can be considered to be a sequela of the respiratory failure or its therapy. These findings are relevant to the care decisions for such critically ill patients.

The suitability of alternative tree species to replace species that are either threatened by pests/disease or at risk from climate change is commonly assessed by their ability to grow in a predicted future climate, their resistance to disease and their production potential. The ecological implications of a change in tree species are seldom considered. Here, we develop and test 3 methods to assess the ecological suitability of alternative trees. We use as our case study the systematic search for an alternative tree species to Fraxinus excelsior (currently declining throughout Europe due to Hymenoscyphus fraxineus). Those trees assessed as most similar to F. excelsior in selected ecosystem functions (decomposition, leaf litter and soil chemistry) (Method A) were least similar when assessed by the number of ash-associated species that also use them (Method B) and vice versa. Method C simultaneously assessed ecosystem functions and species use, allowing trade-offs between supporting ecosystem function and species use to be identified. Using Method C to develop hypothetical scenarios of different tree species mixtures showed that prioritising ecosystem function and then increasing the mixture of tree species to support the greatest number of ash-associated species possible, results in a mixture of trees more ecologically similar to F. excelsior than by simply mixing tree species together to support the greatest number of ash-associated species. We conclude that establishing alternative tree species results in changes in both ecosystem function and species supported and have developed a general method to assess suitability that simultaneously integrates both ecosystem function and the ‘number of species supported’.

Changes in the structure of woodlands and forests, caused by shifts in management, stand maturity, and composition, have been implicated in the population decline of some bird species in Europe and North America. One such species is the Marsh Tit (Poecile palustris). We investigated relationships between Marsh Tit occupation (derived from territory mapping) and vegetation structure, tree species composition, and proximity to woodland edge in a British woodland, using a combination of 5 years of occupation data and high-resolution (0.5 and 1 m), large-scale (155 ha) habitat models derived from remote sensing. The results demonstrated that Marsh Tit occupation was linked to vegetation characteristics through the woodland's full vertical profile and related significantly and positively with overstory height, tree canopy closure, and the coverage of understory vegetation below the overstory. Marsh Tit occupation was lower within 50 m of the woodland perimeter, where habitat structure was less favorable than in the woodland interior. No preference was shown for areas rich in any particular prevalent tree species. Our results suggest that widespread changes in woodland structure resulting from abandonment by managers are unlikely to be responsible for the decline of the Marsh Tit in Britain and that reintroduction of active management that prevents woodland maturation could be detrimental to remaining populations. The study demonstrates a novel approach to integrating territory maps and remote-sensing data to permit highly detailed analyses of bird—habitat interactions and may have wider implications for woodland management and related bird species.

Question: Does blocking of moorland drains increase bog vegetation on blanket peat? Location: Two sites with blocked drains and two with unblocked drains on Forsinard Flows National Nature Reserve, Sutherland, UK. Methods: Vegetation cover was recorded from 70 locations, with 12 sampling points at different distances (0.5-14.5 m) from moorland drains in each location. Gradients in the cover of species indicative of wet and dry conditions, as well as bog recovery and degradation in relation to distance from drain, were compared from a sample of drains at two sites with blocked drains and two with unblocked drains. Results: There was evidence for drain-blocking having a negative effect on vegetation indicative of drier conditions and bog degradation. One of the blocked sites had the lowest values of these indices near to the drain and increasing at greater distances perpendicular from the drain. The two unblocked sites, and the other blocked site, had a contrasting pattern of highest values of these indices close to the drain declining with distance. Cover of species indicative of bog recovery was greater where the drains had been blocked for the longest time. Conclusions: In some cases drain-blocking can improve the ecological functioning of blanket bogs by increasing cover of healthy bog vegetation. Further studies into the causes of such variability in restoring vegetation through drainblocking are needed to aid targeting of peatland restoration projects to areas or methods most likely to be effective.

The effects of habitat gaps on breeding success and parental daily energy expenditure (DEE) were investigated in great tits (Parus major) and blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) in urban parkland (Cardiff, UK) compared with birds in deciduous woodland (eastern England, UK). Tree canopy height, the percentage of gap in the canopy and the percentage of oak (in the wood only) within a 30 m radius of nest boxes were obtained from airborne remote-sensed data. Breeding success was monitored and parental DEE (great tits: both habitats; blue tits: park only) was measured using doubly labelled water in birds feeding young. In the park, mean (±SD) tree height (7.5 ± 4.7 m) was less than in the wood (10.6 ± 4.5 m), but the incidence of gaps (32.7 ± 22.6%) was greater (9.2 ± 14.7%). Great tits and blue tits both reared fewer young in the park and chick body mass was also reduced in park-reared great tits. Park great tits had a higher DEE (86.3 ± 12.3 kJ day⁻¹) than those in the wood (78.0 ± 11.7 kJ day⁻¹) and, because of smaller brood sizes, worked about 64% harder for each chick reared. Tits in the park with more than about 35% gap around their boxes had higher DEEs than the average for the habitat. In the wood, great tits with less oak around their boxes worked harder than average. Thus structural gaps, and functional gaps generated by variation in the quality of foraging habitat, increased the costs of rearing young.

Landscape configuration and dispersal characteristics are major determinants of population distribution and persistence in fragmented habitat. An individual-based spatially explicit population model was developed to investigate these factors using the distribution of nuthatches in an area of eastern England as an example. The effects of immigration and increasing the area of breeding quality habitat were explored. Predictions were compared with observed population sizes in the study area. Our model combined a nuthatch population simulator based on individual behaviour with a grid-based representation of the landscape; nuthatch life cycle and immigration parameters were user selectable. A novel aspect of the model is user-selection of habitat perceptual range. Using a realistic set of parameters, the number of breeding pairs predicted by the model matched observed numbers. According to model simulations, the main cause of nuthatch scarcity in the study area was the inability of patches to support viable populations without immigration from elsewhere. Modelled habitat management, which increased breeding quality habitat in existing woods, lowered the threshold above which the study area population became self-sustaining. The existence of a large core habitat area was critical in producing a self-sustaining population in this landscape, the same area in dispersed small woods failed to sustain populations.

The phenology of many species shows strong sensitivity to climate change; however, with few large scale intra-specific studies it is unclear how such sensitivity varies over a species’ range. We document large intra-specific variation in phenological sensitivity to temperature using laying date information from 67 populations of two co-familial European songbirds, the great tit ( Parus major ) and blue tit ( Cyanistes caeruleus ), covering a large part of their breeding range. Populations inhabiting deciduous habitats showed stronger phenological sensitivity than those in evergreen and mixed habitats. However, populations with higher sensitivity tended to have experienced less rapid change in climate over the past decades, such that populations with high phenological sensitivity will not necessarily exhibit the strongest phenological advancement. Our results show that to effectively assess the impact of climate change on phenology across a species’ range it will be necessary to account for intra-specific variation in phenological sensitivity, climate change exposure, and the ecological characteristics of a population.