Explore the vast range of titles available.

Managing multiple ecosystem services (ES), including addressing trade-offs between services and preventing ecological surprises, is among the most pressing areas for sustainability research. These challenges require ES research to go beyond the currently common approach of snapshot studies limited to one or two services at a single point in time. We used a spatiotemporal approach to examine changes in nine ES and their relationships from 1971 to 2006 across 131 municipalities in a mixed-use landscape in Quebec, Canada. We show how an approach that incorporates time and space can improve our understanding of ES dynamics. We found an increase in the provision of most services through time; however, provision of ES was not uniformly enhanced at all locations. Instead, each municipality specialized in providing a bundle (set of positively correlated ES) dominated by just a few services. The trajectory of bundle formation was related to changes in agricultural policy and global trends; local biophysical and socioeconomic characteristics explained the bundles’ increasing spatial clustering. Relationships between services varied through time, with some provisioning and cultural services shifting from a trade-off or no relationship in 1971 to an apparent synergistic relationship by 2006. By implementing a spatiotemporal perspective on multiple services, we provide clear evidence of the dynamic nature of ES interactions and contribute to identifying processes and drivers behind these changing relationships. Our study raises questions about using snapshots of ES provision at a single point in time to build our understanding of ES relationships in complex and dynamic social-ecological systems.

We explore the role of agriculture in destabilizing the Earth system at the planetary scale, through examining nine planetary boundaries, or “safe limits”: land-system change, freshwater use, biogeochemical flows, biosphere integrity, climate change, ocean acidification, stratospheric ozone depletion, atmospheric aerosol loading, and introduction of novel entities. Two planetary boundaries have been fully transgressed, i.e., are at high risk, biosphere integrity and biogeochemical flows, and agriculture has been the major driver of the transgression. Three are in a zone of uncertainty i.e., at increasing risk, with agriculture the major driver of two of those, land-system change and freshwater use, and a significant contributor to the third, climate change. Agriculture is also a significant or major contributor to change for many of those planetary boundaries still in the safe zone. To reduce the role of agriculture in transgressing planetary boundaries, many interventions will be needed, including those in broader food systems.

The magnitude and pace of global change demand rapid assessment of nature and its contributions to people. We present a fine-scale global modeling of current status and future scenarios for several contributions: water quality regulation, coastal risk reduction, and crop pollination. We find that where people’s needs for nature are now greatest, nature’s ability to meet those needs is declining. Up to 5 billion people face higher water pollution and insufficient pollination for nutrition under future scenarios of land use and climate change, particularly in Africa and South Asia. Hundreds of millions of people face heightened coastal risk across Africa, Eurasia, and the Americas. Continued loss of nature poses severe threats, yet these can be reduced 3- to 10-fold under a sustainable development scenario.

The planetary boundary (PB) concept, introduced in 2009, aimed to define the environmental limits within which humanity can safely operate. This approach has proved influential in global sustainability policy development. Steffen et al. provide an updated and extended analysis of the PB framework. Of the original nine proposed boundaries, they identify three (including climate change) that might push the Earth system into a new state if crossed and that also have a pervasive influence on the remaining boundaries. They also develop the PB framework so that it can be applied usefully in a regional context. Science , this issue 10.1126/science.1259855 Developments in the planetary boundaries concept provide a framework to support global sustainability. The planetary boundaries framework defines a safe operating space for humanity based on the intrinsic biophysical processes that regulate the stability of the Earth system. Here, we revise and update the planetary boundary framework, with a focus on the underpinning biophysical science, based on targeted input from expert research communities and on more general scientific advances over the past 5 years. Several of the boundaries now have a two-tier approach, reflecting the importance of cross-scale interactions and the regional-level heterogeneity of the processes that underpin the boundaries. Two core boundaries—climate change and biosphere integrity—have been identified, each of which has the potential on its own to drive the Earth system into a new state should they be substantially and persistently transgressed.

Flooding is a major disturbance that impacts aquatic ecosystems and the ecosystem services that they provide. Predicted increases in global flood risk due to land use change and water cycle intensification will likely only increase the frequency and severity of these impacts. Extreme flooding events can cause loss of life and significant destruction to property and infrastructure, effects that are easily recognized and frequently reported in the media. However, flooding also has many other effects on people through freshwater aquatic ecosystem services, which often go unrecognized because they are less evident and can be difficult to evaluate. Here, we identify the effects that small magnitude frequently occurring floods (< 10-year recurrence interval) and extreme floods (> 100-year recurrence interval) have on ten aquatic ecosystem services through a systematic literature review. We focused on ecosystem services considered by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment including: (1) supporting services (primary production, soil formation), (2) regulating services (water regulation, water quality, disease regulation, climate regulation), (3) provisioning services (drinking water, food supply), and (4) cultural services (aesthetic value, recreation and tourism). The literature search resulted in 117 studies and each of the ten ecosystem services was represented by an average of 12 ± 4 studies. Extreme floods resulted in losses in almost every ecosystem service considered in this study. However, small floods had neutral or positive effects on half of the ecosystem services we considered. For example, small floods led to increases in primary production, water regulation, and recreation and tourism. Decision-making that preserves small floods while reducing the impacts of extreme floods can increase ecosystem service provision and minimize losses.

Increased phosphorus (P) fertilizer use and livestock production has fundamentally altered the global P cycle. We calculated spatially explicit P balances for cropland soils at 0.5° resolution based on the principal agronomic P inputs and outputs associated with production of 123 crops globally for the year 2000. Although agronomic inputs of P fertilizer (14.2 Tg of P·y⁻¹) and manure (9.6 Tg of P·y⁻¹) collectively exceeded P removal by harvested crops (12.3 Tg of P·y⁻¹) at the global scale, P deficits covered almost 30% of the global cropland area. There was massive variation in the magnitudes of these P imbalances across most regions, particularly Europe and South America. High P fertilizer application relative to crop P use resulted in a greater proportion of the intense P surpluses (>13 kg of P·ha⁻¹·y⁻¹) globally than manure P application. High P fertilizer application was also typically associated with areas of relatively low P-use efficiency. Although manure was an important driver of P surpluses in some locations with high livestock densities, P deficits were common in areas producing forage crops used as livestock feed. Resolving agronomic P imbalances may be possible with more efficient use of P fertilizers and more effective recycling of manure P. Such reforms are needed to increase global agricultural productivity while maintaining or improving freshwater quality.

Rural coastal fishery systems in tropical island nations are undergoing rapid change. Using a case study from eastern Sri Lanka, this paper examines the ways in which indigenous Coastal-Vedda fishers experience and respond to such change. We conducted semi-structured interviews (n = 74), focus group discussions (n = 17, 98 participants), and key informant interviews (n = 38) over a 2-year period (2016–2019). The changes that most Coastal-Vedda fishers experience are disturbance from Sri Lankan ethnic war, changes in climate and the frequency and severity of natural disasters, increased frequency of human-elephant conflicts, increasingly unpredictable weather patterns, and transformation of the Coastal-Vedda due to social modernisation. We used a resilience-based conceptual framework focusing on place, human agency, collective action and collaboration, institutions, indigenous and local knowledge systems, and learning to examine fishers’ responses to rapid changes. We identified three community-level adaptive strategies used by the Coastal-Vedda: adaptive institutions with a multi-level institutional structure that facilitates collective action and collaboration, the use of culture-based fisheries (CBF), and diversification of livelihoods. We also recognized four place-specific attributes that shaped community adaptations: cultural identity and worldviews, co-management of CBF, flexibility in choosing adaptive options, and indigenous and local knowledge systems and learning. These adaptive strategies and place-specific attributes provide new insights for scientists, policymakers, and communities in the region, enabling them to more effectively work together to support community adaptation.

Phosphorus (P) is a critical factor for food production, yet surface freshwaters and some coastal waters are highly sensitive to eutrophication by excessP. A planetary boundary, or upper tolerable limit, for P discharge to the oceans is thought to be ten times the pre-industrial rate, or more than three times the current rate. However this boundary does not take account of freshwater eutrophication. We analyzed the global P cycle to estimate planetary boundaries for freshwater eutrophication. Planetary boundaries were computed for the input of P to freshwaters, the input of P to terrestrial soil, and the mass of P in soil. Each boundary was computed for two water quality targets, 24 mgPm − 3, a typical target for lakes and reservoirs, and 160 mgm − 3, the approximate pre-industrial P concentration in the world’s rivers. Planetary boundaries were also computed using three published estimates of current P flow to the sea. Current conditions exceed all planetary boundaries for P. Substantial differences between current conditions and planetary boundaries demonstrate the contrast between large amounts of P needed for food production and the high sensitivity of freshwaters to pollution by P runoff. At the same time, some regions of the world are P-deficient, and there are some indications that a global P shortage is possible in coming decades. More efficient recycling and retention of P within agricultural ecosystems could maintain or increase food production while reducing P pollution and improving water quality. Spatial heterogeneity in the global P cycle suggests that recycling of P in regions of excess and transfer of P to regions of deficiency could mitigate eutrophication, increase agricultural yield, and delay or avoid global P shortage.

The scale, rate, and intensity of humans' environmental impact has engendered broad discussion about how to find plausible pathways of development that hold the most promise for fostering a better future in the Anthropocene. However, the dominance of dystopian visions of irreversible environmental degradation and societal collapse, along with overly optimistic Utopias and business-as-usual scenarios that lack insight and innovation, frustrate progress. Here, we present a novel approach to thinking about the future that builds on experiences drawn from a diversity of practices, worldviews, values, and regions that could accelerate the adoption of pathways to transformative change (change that goes beyond incremental improvements). Using an analysis of 100 initiatives, or \"seeds of a good Anthropocene\", we find that emphasizing hopeful elements of existing practice offers the opportunity to: (1) understand the values and features that constitute a good Anthropocene, (2) determine the processes that lead to the emergence and growth of initiatives that fundamentally change human-environmental relationships, and (3) generate creative, bottom-up scenarios that feature well-articulated pathways toward a more positive future.

Around the world, cities and their residents are experimenting with innovations for social and ecological sustainability, sowing the seeds of good Anthropocenes. Although such seed initiatives tend to operate at society’s margins, some successfully embed their innovations into new or existing regimes. This process, which is called institutionalization, is deemed crucial for accelerating transformations and ensuring the persistence of change, yet little is known about how institutionalization unfolds. Our study aimed to deepen empirical understanding of the dynamics of institutionalization by exploring how seed initiatives interact with other actors and interventions to institutionalize innovations in the pursuit of transformative visions and goals. We conducted a qualitative case study in Rivière-des-Prairies–Pointe-aux-Trembles, a borough in the city of Montréal, Canada where urban agriculture became more strongly institutionalized following the local government’s enactment of an urban agriculture policy in 2019. Through semi-structured interviews with 46 governmental and non-governmental actors, we discovered that government-supported interventions, including policies, can significantly bolster transformation. When these interventions are effectively designed in collaboration with a diverse community of change-makers, they make space for synergies between actors and resources, thereby supporting the flourishing of seed initiatives. Our findings revealed that institutionalization is not a linear process, but rather an iterative and dynamic process that can span every phase of transformation. In Rivière-des-Prairies–Pointe-aux-Trembles, institutionalization and experimentation were mutually reinforcing processes. Our results challenge prevailing notions of actors’ roles, for example by demonstrating that governments, too, can be seed actors, conducting their own innovative experiments. This study offers an alternative, more nuanced, explanation of how institutionalization relates to sustainability transformations through an empirical case-study in an urban local context.