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"Bergh, C"
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Environmental Policy Theory Given Bounded Rationality and Other-regarding Preferences
Established environmental policy theory is based on the assumption of homo economicus. This means that people are seen as fully rational and acting in a self-regarding manner. In line with this, economics emphasizes efficient policy solutions and the associated advantages of price incentives. Behavioral economics offers alternative, more realistic views on individual behavior. In this paper we investigate opportunities to integrate bounded rationality and other-regarding preferences into environmental policy theory to arrive at recommendations for more effective policies. For this purpose, we will address decisions made under risk and uncertainty, intertemporal choice, decision heuristics, other-regarding preferences, heterogeneity, evolutionary selection of behaviors, and the role of happiness. Three aspects of environmental policy are considered in detail, namely sustainable consumption, environmental valuation and policy design. We pay special attention to the role of non-pecuniary, informative instruments and illustrate the implications for climate policy.
Journal Article
Energy Conservation More Effective With Rebound Policy
This article sketches the problem of indirect energy use effects, also known as rebound, of energy conservation. There is widespread support for energy conservation, especially when it is voluntary, as this seems a cheap way to realize environmental and energy-climate goals. However, this overlooks the phenomenon of rebound. The topic of energy rebound has mainly attracted attention from energy analysts, but has been surprisingly neglected in environmental economics, even though economists generally are concerned with indirect or economy-wide impacts of technical change and policies. This paper presents definitions and interpretations of energy and environmental rebound, as well as four fundamental reasons for the existence of the rebound phenomenon. It further offers the most complete list of rebound pathways or mechanisms available in the literature. In addition, it discusses empirical estimates of rebound and addresses the implications of uncertainties and difficulties in assessing rebound. Suggestions are offered for strategies and public policies to contain rebound. It is advised that rebound evaluation is an essential part of environmental policy and project assessments. As opposed to earlier studies, this paper stresses the relevance of the distinction between energy conservation resulting from autonomous demand changes and from efficiency improvements in technology/equipment. In addition, it argues that rebound is especially relevant for developing countries.
Journal Article
Duration of Androgen Suppression in the Treatment of Prostate Cancer
A current standard treatment for locally advanced prostate cancer is external-beam radiotherapy combined with 3 years of androgen suppression. Adverse events, such as myocardial infarction, are associated with long-term androgen suppression. This trial examined survival after treatment with long-term (3 years) or short-term (6 months) androgen suppression, plus external-beam radiotherapy, in men with locally advanced prostate cancer. Overall and prostate-cancer–specific survival in the group receiving short-term androgen suppression was inferior to that in the group receiving long-term suppression.
This trial examined survival after treatment with long-term (3 years) or short-term (6 months) androgen suppression, plus external-beam radiotherapy, in men with locally advanced prostate cancer. Overall and prostate-cancer–specific survival in the group receiving short-term androgen suppression was inferior.
Overall survival among patients with locally advanced prostate cancer has improved with the use of external-beam radiotherapy combined with long-term androgen suppression (≥2 years) as compared with the use of external-beam radiotherapy and deferral of hormonal treatment until relapse.
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However, long-term androgen suppression can reduce the quality of life and increase the risk of fatal myocardial infarction,
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fractures,
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and the metabolic syndrome.
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These risks might be lowered by replacing long-term androgen suppression with short-term suppression (6 months), which has been found to reduce mortality from localized prostate cancer.
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The European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) conducted . . .
Journal Article
Evolutionary models in economics: a survey of methods and building blocks
This paper assesses methods and components of formal evolutionary-economic modelling. Methods are broadly classified into evolutionary game theory and selection dynamics, evolutionary computation and multi-agent models, each with relevant subcategories. The components or building blocks are organized into diversity, innovation, selection, bounded rationality, diffusion, path dependency and lock-in, coevolution, multilevel and group selection, and mechanisms of growth. The number of alternatives that has been proposed for each category is vast, making it difficult to comprehend the variety of assumptions and formalizations underlying existing evolutionary-economic models. Our survey aims to clarify for each model component the choice range, formal expressions, associated assumptions, and possible techniques for formalization. Our study is unique in that it provides more information about the formal details of specific model components and is considerably more inclusive than earlier reviews.
Journal Article
MONETARY VALUATION OF INSURANCE AGAINST FLOOD RISK UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE
Climate change is projected to increase the risk of natural disasters, such as floods and storms, in certain regions. This is likely to raise the demand for natural disaster insurance. We present a stated preference survey using choice modeling with mixed logit estimation methods in order to examine the effects of climate change and the availability of government compensation on the demand for flood insurance by Dutch homeowners. Currently, no private insurance against flood damage is offered in the Netherlands. The results indicate that there are opportunities for the development of a flood insurance market.
Journal Article
Induction of labour at 41 weeks versus expectant management and induction of labour at 42 weeks (SWEdish Post-term Induction Study, SWEPIS): multicentre, open label, randomised, superiority trial
AbstractObjectiveTo evaluate if induction of labour at 41 weeks improves perinatal and maternal outcomes in women with a low risk pregnancy compared with expectant management and induction of labour at 42 weeks.DesignMulticentre, open label, randomised controlled superiority trial.Setting14 hospitals in Sweden, 2016-18.Participants2760 women with a low risk uncomplicated singleton pregnancy randomised (1:1) by the Swedish Pregnancy Register. 1381 women were assigned to the induction group and 1379 were assigned to the expectant management group.InterventionsInduction of labour at 41 weeks and expectant management and induction of labour at 42 weeks.Main outcome measuresThe primary outcome was a composite perinatal outcome including one or more of stillbirth, neonatal mortality, Apgar score less than 7 at five minutes, pH less than 7.00 or metabolic acidosis (pH <7.05 and base deficit >12 mmol/L) in the umbilical artery, hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy, intracranial haemorrhage, convulsions, meconium aspiration syndrome, mechanical ventilation within 72 hours, or obstetric brachial plexus injury. Primary analysis was by intention to treat.ResultsThe study was stopped early owing to a significantly higher rate of perinatal mortality in the expectant management group. The composite primary perinatal outcome did not differ between the groups: 2.4% (33/1381) in the induction group and 2.2% (31/1379) in the expectant management group (relative risk 1.06, 95% confidence interval 0.65 to 1.73; P=0.90). No perinatal deaths occurred in the induction group but six (five stillbirths and one early neonatal death) occurred in the expectant management group (P=0.03). The proportion of caesarean delivery, instrumental vaginal delivery, or any major maternal morbidity did not differ between the groups.ConclusionsThis study comparing induction of labour at 41 weeks with expectant management and induction at 42 weeks does not show any significant difference in the primary composite adverse perinatal outcome. However, a reduction of the secondary outcome perinatal mortality is observed without increasing adverse maternal outcomes. Although these results should be interpreted cautiously, induction of labour ought to be offered to women no later than at 41 weeks and could be one (of few) interventions that reduces the rate of stillbirths.Trial registrationCurrent Controlled Trials ISRCTN26113652.
Journal Article
Cost of Mediterranean Sea Warming and Acidification: A Choice Experiment Among Scuba Divers at Medes Islands, Spain
A choice experiment is undertaken to elicit preferences of scuba divers in the Marine Protected Area of Medes Islands (Spain). This is the first non-market valuation study of a typical Mediterranean habitat, the Coralligenous, which is characterized by high biodiversity, geomorphologic complexity and iconic species like gorgonians. This habitat is not only very attractive for scuba diving, but is also threatened by climate change and ocean acidification, which is our motivation for undertaking this valuation study. Choice attributes include the number of divers on a diving trip, underwater landscape, presence of jellyfish species, expected state of gorgonians, and price of a dive. Results of multinomial and random parameter logit models indicate a decrease in the attractiveness of Coralligenous areas for scuba diving as a result of both environmental pressures. Estimates of welfare values show that the local extinction of gorgonians had the highest negative effect on utility equivalent to a cost of €60 per dive, followed by abundance of stinging jellyfish with a cost of €26 per dive. Choice probabilities for the selection of different dive experiences indicate the highest rejection rates for the combined sea warming and acidification scenarios.
Journal Article
Did COVID-19 help or harm the climate? Modeling long-run emissions under climate and stimulus policies
We propose a model of global energy competition, GLO-COV, to shed light on the long-run effects of COVID-19. It accounts for the joint impact of lockdown, economic stimulus programs, and climate policy on CO
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emissions. The model also captures the role of “peak oil.” It incorporates evolutionary self-reinforcing dynamics, which allows for addressing path dependence and lock-in. The model is empirically calibrated on historical energy demand, economic growth, emission intensity, and factors specific to COVID-19. The resulting long-term assessment complements previous studies that focus on the short-term effects of the pandemic. We find that without countervailing climate policy, COVID-19 increases long-run emissions. With a carbon tax already in place, COVID-19 leads to lower emissions than scenarios without the pandemic or without policy. On their own, climate and stimulus policies increase the variability of, and thus uncertainty about, emissions, while their combination reduces variability. A further advantage of combining stimulus and carbon taxation is that it creates strong synergy, resulting in maximal reduction of long-term emissions.
Journal Article
Development of a prediction model for late urinary incontinence, hematuria, pain and voiding frequency among irradiated prostate cancer patients
Incontinence, hematuria, voiding frequency and pain during voiding are possible side effects of radiotherapy among patients treated for prostate cancer. The objective of this study was to develop multivariable NTCP models for these side effects.
This prospective cohort study was composed of 243 patients with localized or locally advanced prostate cancer (stage T1-3). Genito-urinary (GU) toxicity was assessed using a standardized follow-up program. The GU toxicity endpoints were scored using the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 3.0 (CTCAE 3.0) scoring system. The full bladder and different anatomical subregions within the bladder were delineated. A least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression analysis was used to analyze dose volume effects on the four individual endpoints.
In the univariable analysis, urinary incontinence was significantly associated with dose distributions in the trigone (V55-V75, mean). Hematuria was significantly associated with the bladder wall dose (V40-V75, mean), bladder dose (V70-V75), cardiovascular disease and anticoagulants use. Pain during urinating was associated with the dose to the trigone (V50-V75, mean) and with trans transurethral resection of the prostate (TURP). In the final multivariable model urinary incontinence was associated with the mean dose of the trigone. Hematuria was associated with bladder wall dose (V75) and cardiovascular disease, while pain during urinating was associated with trigone dose (V75) and TURP. No significant associations were found for increase in voiding frequency.
Radiation-induced urinary side effects are associated with dose distributions to different organs as risk. Given the dose effect relationships found, decreasing the dose to the trigone and bladder wall may reduce the incidence of incontinence, pain during voiding and hematuria, respectively.
Journal Article