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The coastal waters of southern British Columbia, Canada, encompass habitat of international conservation significance to coastal and marine birds, including sizeable areas designated in the early 1900s as Migratory Bird Sanctuaries (MBS) to protect overwintering waterfowl from hunting near urban centres. Two of these, Shoal Harbour (SHMBS) and Victoria Harbour (VHMBS), have seen significant marine infrastructure development in recent decades and experience considerable vessel traffic. Vessel-related stressors are known to affect waterbirds, but traffic characteristics in coastal urban areas are poorly understood for the smaller vessels not tracked by Automatic Identification Systems (AIS). We conducted a pilot study using shore-based observers to develop small-vessel baselines for the winter months, when regional waterbird numbers are highest. During our surveys we recorded considerable inter-site variability in vessel traffic characteristics, with one site (SHMBS) a source of nearly twice as many vessel transits as the other (VHMBS). Most recorded vessels were small watercraft (mean length 26 ± 17′, mode 18′), and vessels at the high-traffic site were both shorter and faster on average. One in six vessels were classified as ‘noisy’, of interest given that noise is an important component of vessel disturbance of waterbirds and other marine animals. Few vessels (7% of all recorded) were of the type required to carry AIS transponders, which highlights the monitoring gap created by using AIS-based approaches alone in nearshore waters, and allows for correction of AIS-derived vessel counts. Waterbird community composition also varied by locality, with one site dominated by gulls (Laridae), cormorants (Phalacrocoracidae), and seaducks (Tribe Mergini), and the other by gulls, cormorants, and alcids (Alcidae). Our results demonstrate that fine-scale local variability must be taken into account when managing for vessel traffic disturbance of waterbirds, particularly at sites of high human population density and increasing coastal development.

The marbled murrelet ( Brachyramphus marmoratus ) is a small seabird inhabiting coastal regions along the Pacific coast of North America, and nests in old-growth forests usually within 80 km from shore. The Canadian population of marbled murrelets is listed as Threatened under the federal Species at Risk Act . To investigate the species’ marine distribution, we conducted analyses of the occurrence of marbled murrelets at-sea between 2000 and 2022, utilizing at-sea and marine shoreline surveys in the Canadian portion of the Salish Sea. The data were divided into breeding season (April to August) and non-breeding season (September to March) to examine the relationship between environmental covariates and the species’ distribution. We considered terrestrial covariates related to potential nesting habitat, as well as marine covariates related to Pacific sand lance ( Ammodytes personatus ) quality habitat, slope, depth, streams, tidal currents, shorelines and climate indices (NPGO). We compared marine distribution between breeding and nonbreeding seasons and predicted variations in covariate relationships. Our study focuses on identifying averaged relationships and key spatial areas to gauge habitat quality at a landscape scale. Using a Generalized Additive Modelling approach, we found that both marine and terrestrial covariates contributed to predicting murrelet distribution during both seasons. Notably, Pacific sand lance habitat played a significant role in both the breeding and nonbreeding season, while the overall amount of nesting habitat within an 80 km radius influenced occurrence probability in the nonbreeding season. Our analysis accurately predicted distribution patterns at a resolution of 3 x 3 km with an AUC of 0.89 and AUPRC of 0.52 for the breeding season, and AUC of 0.88 and a AUPRC of 0.28 for non-breeding season. Overall, our study highlights both terrestrial and marine drivers that influence the marine distribution of this threatened species and informs Canadian conservation efforts.

Marine waterbirds have shown variable trends in abundance over the past four decades with some species displaying steep declines along the Pacific coast from British Columbia through California. One of the most dramatic changes has been that of western grebes (Aechmophorus occidentalis) in the Salish Sea. This region was a former core of the species wintering distribution but they have become increasingly rare prompting calls for conservation action. A more thorough understanding of this situation requires the analysis of trends at broader geographic scales as well as a consideration of mechanisms that might have led to a change in abundance. We used hierarchical modeling with a Bayesian framework applied to 36 years of Audubon Christmas Bird Count data to assess continent-wide and regional population trends in western and Clark's grebes (A. clarkii) from 1975 to 2010. Our results show that the North American wintering population of Aechmophorus grebes decreased by ∼52% after 1975, but also that western grebes displayed strongly opposing regional patterns. Abundance decreased by about 95% over 36 years in the Salish Sea but increased by over 300% along coastal California. As a result, the mean centre of the species distribution shifted south by an estimated 895 km between 1980 and 2010. Mechanisms underlying this shift require further study but we hypothesize that it may be related to a change in the abundance and availability of their forage fish prey base. Since the mid-1980s, the Pacific sardine stock off the California coast increased from a few thousand metric tonnes to over two million. At the same time both the abundance and availability of Pacific herring declined in the Salish Sea. Studies are needed to examine this hypothesis further and additional consideration should be directed at other changes in the marine environment that may have contributed to a range shift.

Inadequate climate data stations often make hydrological modelling a rather challenging task in data-sparse regions. Gridded climate data can be used as an alternative; however, their accuracy in replicating the climatology of the region of interest with low levels of uncertainty is important to water resource planning. This study utilised several performance metrics and multi-criteria decision making to assess the performance of the widely used gridded precipitation and temperature data against quality-controlled observed station records in the Lake Chad basin. The study’s findings reveal that the products differ in their quality across the selected performance metrics, although they are especially promising with regards to temperature. However, there are some inherent weaknesses in replicating the observed station data. Princeton University Global Meteorological Forcing precipitation showed the worst performance, with Kling–Gupta efficiency of 0.13–0.50, a mean modified index of agreement of 0.68, and a similarity coefficient SU = 0.365, relative to other products with satisfactory performance across all stations. There were varying degrees of mismatch in unidirectional precipitation and temperature trends, although they were satisfactory in replicating the hydro-climatic information with a low level of uncertainty. Assessment based on multi-criteria decision making revealed that the Climate Research Unit, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre, and Climate Prediction Centre precipitation data and the Climate Research Unit and Princeton University Global Meteorological Forcing temperature data exhibit better performance in terms of similarity, and are recommended for application in hydrological impact studies—especially in the quantification of projected climate hazards and vulnerabilities for better water policy decision making in the Lake Chad basin.

Species at risk with secretive breeding behaviours, low densities, and wide geographic range pose a significant challenge to conservation actions because population trends are difficult to detect. Such is the case with the Marbled Murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus), a seabird listed as 'Threatened' by the Species at Risk Act in Canada largely due to the loss of its old growth forest nesting habitat. We report the first estimates of population trend of Marbled Murrelets in Canada derived from a monitoring program that uses marine radar to detect birds as they enter forest watersheds during 923 dawn surveys at 58 radar monitoring stations within the six Marbled Murrelet Conservation Regions on coastal British Columbia, Canada, 1996-2013. Temporal trends in radar counts were analyzed with a hierarchical Bayesian multivariate modeling approach that controlled for variation in tilt of the radar unit and day of year, included year-specific deviations from the overall trend ('year effects'), and allowed for trends to be estimated at three spatial scales. A negative overall trend of -1.6%/yr (95% credibility interval: -3.2%, 0.01%) indicated moderate evidence for a coast-wide decline, although trends varied strongly among the six conservation regions. Negative annual trends were detected in East Vancouver Island (-9%/yr) and South Mainland Coast (-3%/yr) Conservation Regions. Over a quarter of the year effects were significantly different from zero, and the estimated standard deviation in common-shared year effects between sites within each region was about 50% per year. This large common-shared interannual variation in counts may have been caused by regional movements of birds related to changes in marine conditions that affect the availability of prey.

Identifying of global or national biodiversity ‘hotspots’ has proven important for focusing and prioritizing conservation efforts worldwide. Canada has nearly 600 Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas (IBAs) identified by quantitative criteria to help guide avian conservation and management. Marine IBAs capture critical waterbird habitats such as nesting colonies, foraging sites, and staging areas. However, due to their remote locations, many lack recent population counts. Canada has begun transitioning IBAs into the global Key Biodiversity Areas (KBA) program; KBAs identify areas that are important for the persistence of biodiversity and encompass a wider scope of unique, rare, or vulnerable taxa. Assessing whether IBAs qualify as KBAs requires current data – as will future efforts to manage these biologically important sites. We conducted a pilot study in the Chain Islets and Great Chain Island IBA, in British Columbia, to assess the effectiveness of using drones to census surface-nesting seabirds in an IBA context. This IBA was originally designated for supporting a globally significant breeding colony of Glaucous-winged Gulls ( Larus glaucescens ). Total nest counts derived from orthomosaic imagery (1012 nesting pairs) show that this site now falls below the Global and National IBA designation criterion threshold, a finding consistent with regional declines in the species. Our trial successfully demonstrates a flexible and low cost approach to obtaining population data at an ecologically sensitive KBA site. We explore how drones will be a useful tool to assess and monitor species and habitats within remote, data-deficient IBAs, particularly during the transition to KBAs.

This study investigated how sporadic river datasets could be used to quantify temporal variations in the base flow index (BFI). The BFI represents the baseflow component of river flow which is often used as a proxy indicator for groundwater discharge to a river. The Bua catchment in Malawi was used as a case study, whereby the smoothed minima method was applied to river flow data from six gauges (ranging from 1953 to 2009) and the Mann-Kendall (MK) statistical test was used to identify trends in BFI. The results showed that baseflow plays an important role within the catchment. Average annual BFIs > 0.74 were found for gauges in the lower reaches of the catchment, in contrast to lower BFIs < 0.54 which were found for gauges in the higher reaches. Minimal difference between annual and wet season BFI was observed, however dry season BFI was >0.94 across all gauges indicating the importance of baseflow in maintaining any dry season flows. Long term trends were identified in the annual and wet season BFI, but no evidence of a trend was found in the dry season BFI. Sustainable management of the investigated catchment should, therefore, account for the temporal variations in baseflow, with special regard to water resources allocation within the region and consideration in future scheme appraisals aimed at developing water resources. Further, this demonstration of how to work with sporadic river data to investigate baseflow serves as an important example for other catchments faced with similar challenges.

1. For the overwhelming majority of species, we lack long-term information on the dynamics of populations. As a consequence, we face considerable uncertainty about how to discriminate among competing hypotheses of population decline and design conservation plans. 2. The marbled murrelet Brachyramphus marmoratus is a small seabird that nests in coastal old-growth forest but feeds year-round in near-shore waters of the north-eastern Pacific. Although a decline in nesting habitat is the primary reason why marbled murrelets are listed as threatened in Canada, nest predation and food availability may also influence population abundance. To examine the hypothesis that murrelet populations are influenced by variation in diet quality, we analysed stable-carbon and -nitrogen isotopes in feathers of museum specimens collected in the Georgia Basin, British Columbia. 3. Between 1889 and 1996, we found a decline in stable isotopic signatures that was approximately equal to a 62% drop in trophic feeding level. We also found that the estimated proportion of fish in murrelet diet was related closely to murrelet abundance over the past 40 years, as estimated from volunteer surveys. Using these isotopic data, we modelled population size as a function of variation in reproductive rate due to changes in diet quality and found that our model matched closely the 40-year field estimates. We then applied our 107-year isotopic record to the model to back-cast estimates of population growth rate to 1889. 4. Our results suggest that, up to the 1950s, murrelet populations in the Georgia Basin were capable of growing and were probably limited by factors other than diet quality. After this period, however, our results imply that murrelets were often, but not solely, limited by diet quality. 5. Synthesis and applications. Protecting nesting habitat may not be sufficient to rebuild populations of this highly secretive and threatened seabird and recovery might also require the restoration of marine habitat quality, as well as a better understanding of how ocean climate affects prey abundance and reproductive rate. Combined with contemporary demographic data, stable isotope analysis of historic samples provides a unique opportunity to reconstruct population histories for species where we lack long-term information.

Anomalously warm sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) are associated with interannual and decadal variability as well as with long-term climate changes indicative of global warming. Such oscillations could precipitate changes in a variety of oceanic processes to affect marine species worldwide. As global temperatures continue to rise, it will be critically important to be able to predict the effects of such changes on species' abundance, distribution, and ecological relationships so as to identify vulnerable populations. Off the coast of British Columbia, warm SSTs have persisted through the last two decades. Based on 16 years of reproductive data collected between 1975 and 2002, we show that the extreme variation in reproductive performance exhibited by tufted puffins (Fratercula cirrhata) was related to changes in SST both within and among seasons. Especially warm SSTs corresponded with drastically decreased growth rates and fledging success of puffin nestlings. Puffins may partially compensate for within-season changes associated with SST by adjusting their breeding phenology, yet our data also suggest that they are highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change at this site and may serve as a valuable indicator of biological change in the North Pacific. Further and prolonged increases in ocean temperature could make Triangle Island, which contains the largest tufted puffin colony in Canada, unsuitable as a breeding site for this species.