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Reduction of premature mortality is a UN Sustainable Development Goal. Unlike other high-income countries, age-adjusted mortality in the USA plateaued in 2010 and increased slightly in 2015, possibly because of rising premature mortality. We aimed to analyse trends in mortality in the USA between 1999 and 2014 in people aged 25–64 years by age group, sex, and race and ethnicity, and to identify specific causes of death underlying the temporal trends. For this analysis, we used cause-of-death and demographic data from death certificates from the US National Center for Health Statistics, and population estimates from the US Census Bureau. We estimated annual percentage changes in mortality using age-period-cohort models. Age-standardised excess deaths were estimated for 2000 to 2014 as observed deaths minus expected deaths (estimated from 1999 mortality rates). Between 1999 and 2014, premature mortality increased in white individuals and in American Indians and Alaska Natives. Increases were highest in women and those aged 25–30 years. Among 30-year-olds, annual mortality increases were 2·3% (95% CI 2·1–2·4) for white women, 0·6% (0·5–0·7) for white men, and 4·3% (3·5–5·0) and 1·9% (1·3–2·5), respectively, for American Indian and Alaska Native women and men. These increases were mainly attributable to accidental deaths (primarily drug poisonings), chronic liver disease and cirrhosis, and suicide. Among individuals aged 25–49 years, an estimated 111 000 excess premature deaths occurred in white individuals and 6600 in American Indians and Alaska Natives during 2000–14. By contrast, premature mortality decreased substantially across all age groups in Hispanic individuals (up to 3·2% per year), black individuals (up to 3·9% per year), and Asians and Pacific Islanders (up to 2·6% per year), mainly because of declines in HIV, cancer, and heart disease deaths, resulting in an estimated 112 000 fewer deaths in Hispanic individuals, 311 000 fewer deaths in black individuals, and 34 000 fewer deaths in Asians and Pacific Islanders aged 25–64 years. During 2011–14, American Indians and Alaska Natives had the highest premature mortality, followed by black individuals. Important public health successes, including HIV treatment and smoking cessation, have contributed to declining premature mortality in Hispanic individuals, black individuals, and Asians and Pacific Islanders. However, this progress has largely been negated in young and middle-aged (25–49 years) white individuals, and American Indians and Alaska Natives, primarily because of potentially avoidable causes such as drug poisonings, suicide, and chronic liver disease and cirrhosis. The magnitude of annual mortality increases in the USA is extremely unusual in high-income countries, and a rapid public health response is needed to avert further premature deaths. US National Cancer Institute Intramural Research Program.

Li-Fraumeni syndrome, caused primarily by pathogenic or likely pathogenic germline TP53 variants, is a rare, variably penetrant, cancer predisposition syndrome with very high risks of cancer starting in childhood, including the risk of multiple primary malignancies over an individual's lifespan. We aimed to characterise and quantify cancer incidence, patterns, and genotype–phenotype associations in individuals with pathogenic or likely pathogenic germline TP53 variants. This observational cohort study was done in 480 carriers of pathogenic or likely pathogenic germline TP53 variants enrolled in the National Cancer Institute's referral-based longitudinal Li-Fraumeni syndrome study between Aug 1, 2011, and March 24, 2020. Data on personal and family history of cancer were obtained through study questionnaires and validated by medical records. Variants were categorised on the basis of both loss-of-function (LOF) and dominant-negative effect (DNE) properties. Cancer incidence associated with Li-Fraumeni syndrome was compared with that of the general population using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) 1975–2017 registry. Cancer incidence was evaluated with family-clustered Cox regression models and competing risk methods. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01443468. Individuals with Li-Fraumeni syndrome had a nearly 24 times higher incidence of any cancer than the general population (standardised incidence ratio 23·9; 95% CI 21·9–26·0), with the highest comparative incidence from childhood to 30 years of age. The overall cancer incidence remained 10·3 (95% CI 7·9–13·2) times higher than that of the general population after age 50 years. In women, when considering breast cancer as a competing risk, the probability of a first diagnosis of a non-breast cancer malignancy was substantially lower than that of any first cancer (24·4% [95% CI 19·6–30·5] vs 50·4% [43·5–56·5] by age 33·7 years). Overall, DNE_LOF and notDNE_LOF variants were associated with earlier age at first and second cancer compared with notDNE_notLOF and DNE_notLOF variants. The time interval from first to second cancer was shorter among carriers whose first cancer diagnoses were later in life. Multiple cancers were diagnosed within a short timeframe in some individuals, regardless of the order of cancer occurrence. This study adds granularity to the understanding of cancer incidence and patterns in individuals with pathogenic or likely pathogenic germline TP53 variants. Integration of age range-specific cancer incidence estimates, cancer-free survival by functional variant group, the potential impact of risk-reducing mastectomy on female cancer incidence, and data on subsequent malignancies will be important for the development of strategies to optimise cancer screening and management for these individuals. Intramural Research Program, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Institutes of Health.

BackgroundFamily history may inform risks of gastric cancer and preneoplastic lesions.MethodsWe examined associations with history of cancer in first-degree relatives for 307 incident gastric cancer cases among 20,720 male smokers in a prospective study in Finland. Cox regression was used to calculate gastric cancer hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% CIs for low serum pepsinogen, a marker of gastric atrophy.ResultsGastric cancer risk was associated with gastric cancer history in first-degree relatives overall (HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.15–2.12), in fathers (HR 1.67, 95% CI 1.09–2.55) and in siblings (HR 2.05, 95% CI 1.25–3.38). Associations were significant for noncardia (HR 1.83, 95% CI 1.30–2.57) but not cardia (HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.46–1.87) cancers, and marginal for both intestinal—(HR 1.53, 95% CI 0.92–2.55) and diffuse-type (HR 1.47, 95% CI 0.72–3.03) histologies. Family history of other cancer types was not associated with gastric cancer risk. Family history of gastric cancer was associated with low pepsinogen (OR 1.29, 95% CI 1.11–1.50).ConclusionsFamily history of gastric cancer is strongly associated with specific subtypes of gastric cancer as well as with gastric atrophy, a risk factor for developing this malignancy.

Malaria is a significant global health issue, with nearly 200 million cases in 2013 alone. Parasites obtain folate from the host or synthesize it de novo. Folate consumption has increased in many populations, prompting concerns regarding potential deleterious consequences of higher intake. The impact of high dietary folate on the host's immune function and response to malaria has not been examined. Our goal was to determine whether high dietary folate would affect response to malarial infection in a murine model of cerebral malaria. Mice were fed control diets (CD, recommended folate level for rodents) or folic acid-supplemented diets (FASD, 10x recommended level) for 5 weeks before infection with Plasmodium berghei ANKA. Survival, parasitemia, numbers of immune cells and other infection parameters were assessed. FASD mice had reduced survival (p<0.01, Cox proportional hazards) and higher parasitemia (p< 0.01, joint model of parasitemia and survival) compared with CD mice. FASD mice had lower numbers of splenocytes, total T cells, and lower numbers of specific T and NK cell sub-populations, compared with CD mice (p<0.05, linear mixed effects). Increased brain TNFα immunoreactive protein (p<0.01, t-test) and increased liver Abca1 mRNA (p<0.01, t-test), a modulator of TNFα, were observed in FASD mice; these variables correlated positively (rs = 0.63, p = 0.01). Bcl-xl/Bak mRNA was increased in liver of FASD mice (p<0.01, t-test), suggesting reduced apoptotic potential. We conclude that high dietary folate increases parasite replication, disturbs the immune response and reduces resistance to malaria in mice. These findings have relevance for malaria-endemic regions, when considering anti-folate anti-malarials, food fortification or vitamin supplementation programs.

Purpose Germline pathogenic variants in BRCA1 ( FANCD1 ) and BRCA2 ( FANCS ) do not explain all familial or sporadic cases with breast cancer. Several reports indicate a role for pathogenic variants in other genes in the Fanconi anemia/breast cancer DNA repair pathway; the strengths of these associations vary widely. Publications from 2006 through 2017 were reviewed to provide a better estimate of the role of pathogenic variants in genes in this pathway in breast cancer. Methods We identified cohorts and case–control reports describing heterozygous pathogenic variants in Fanconi anemia genes in breast cancer cases with high risk of a germline pathogenic variant in a non- BRCA1/2 breast cancer susceptibility gene (“familial”), and cases unselected for family history (“unselected”). Meta-analysis and meta-regression were used to estimate the frequencies of pathogenic variants in cohorts and the odds ratios (OR) in case–control studies. Results Meta-analysis of more than 100 reports of FANCN/PALB2 in familial breast cancer cases provided an overall pathogenic variant prevalence of 1.29% and an OR of 8.45. The prevalence in unselected cohorts was 0.64%, and the OR was 4.76. Pathogenic variants in FANCJ/BRIP1 had a prevalence of 0.5% in familial cases, and an OR of 1.62; their prevalence in unselected cases was 0.39%. FANCO/RAD51C , FANCP/SLX4 , FANCU/XRCC2 , FANCD2 , and other FA-related genes all had prevalences of ≤ 0.5% among familial cases, and even lower in unselected cases. Conclusions Heterozygous pathogenic variants in FANCN/PALB2 and possibly FANCJ/BRIP1 may account for 1–2% of familial non-BRCA1/2 breast cancer cases and 0.5–1% of unselected cases. Genetic counseling and testing may be suggested for unaffected relatives.

Notable increases in mortality from alcohol-induced causes over the past 2 decades in the United States have been reported. However, comprehensive assessments of trends in alcohol-induced mortality by sex, age, race/ethnicity, and social and geographic factors are lacking. To examine trends in alcohol-induced mortality rates from 2000 to 2016, comparing results by demographic characteristics including sex, race/ethnicity, age, county-level socioeconomic status, and geographic location. This serial cross-sectional study used US national vital statistics data for years 2000 to 2016 for all US residents older than 15 years. Data analysis was conducted from January to September 2019. Trends in alcohol-induced mortality by sex, race/ethnicity, age, county-level socioeconomic status (ie, median income, percentage of unemployed residents, percentage of residents with a bachelor's degree), rurality level, and US state. Alcohol-induced mortality, ie, deaths for which alcohol holds a population-attributable fraction of 1. Deaths were expressed per 100 000 residents as absolute and age-standardized rates. Mortality trends were measured as average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) for the entire period (ie, 2000-2016) and annual percentage changes (APCs) for individual periods of change within the study period. A total of 425 045 alcohol-induced deaths were identified from 2000 to 2016 (2000: 19 627 deaths; 14 979 [76.3%] men; 2016: 34 857 deaths; 25 213 [73.3%] men). The rate of alcohol-induced deaths increased substantially among men (AAPC, 1.4%; 95% CI, 1.0% to 1.8%) and women (AAPC, 3.1%; 95% CI, 2.6% to 3.6%) and accelerated recently (men, 2012-2016: APC, 4.2%; 95% CI, 3.1% to 5.3%; women, 2013-2016: APC, 7.1%; 95% CI, 5.1% to 9.1%). The largest increases by race/ethnicity were observed among American Indian and Alaska Native men (AAPC, 3.3%; 95% CI, 2.6% to 4.0%), American Indian and Alaska Native women (AAPC, 4.2%; 95% CI, 3.8% to 4.6%), and white women (AAPC, 4.1%; 95% CI, 3.6% to 4.7%). Despite initial declines among black women, black men, and Latino men (eg, Latino men, 2000-2003: APC, -5.1%; 95% CI, -9.8% to -0.1%; 2003-2013: APC, -0.6%; 95% CI, -1.4% to 0.2%), increases occurred later in the study period (eg, Latino men, 2013-2016: APC, 4.1%; 95% CI, 0.3% to 8.1%). The rates of increase varied by age group and in turn by racial/ethnic group. Among white individuals, large absolute increases occurred in midlife (eg, men aged 55-59 years, 2000-2003: 25.5 deaths per 100 000 residents; 2013-2016: 43.3 deaths per 100 000 residents; women aged 50-54 years, 2000-2003: 7.4 deaths per 100 000 residents; 2013-2016: 16.5 deaths per 100 000 residents), although APCs were also large for ages 25 to 34 years, ranging from 4.6% to 6.9% per year among men and from 7.3% to 12.0% among women. Among American Indian and Alaska Native individuals, increases throughout the age range were observed, with the largest absolute increase occurring for ages 45 to 49 years among men (2000-2013: 113.6 deaths per 100 000 residents; 2013-2016: 193.1 deaths per 100 000 residents) and for ages 50 to 54 among women (2000-2013: from 56.1 deaths per 100 000 residents; 2013-2016: 105.1 deaths per 100 000 residents). This study found large increases in alcohol-induced death rates across age and racial/ethnic subgroups of the US population, which have accelerated over recent years. Large increases in alcohol-induced deaths among younger age groups may be associated with future increases in alcohol-related disease.

In the original publication of the article, the first sentence in the abstract was published incorrectly.In the original publication of the article, the first sentence in the abstract was published incorrectly.

BackgroundPleuropulmonary blastoma (PPB), the hallmark tumour associated with DICER1-related tumour predisposition, is characterised by an age-related progression from a cystic lesion (type I) to a high-grade sarcoma with mixed cystic and solid features (type II) or purely solid lesion (type III). Not all cystic PPBs progress; type Ir (regressed), hypothesised to represent regressed or non-progressed type I PPB, is an air-filled, cystic lesion lacking a primitive sarcomatous component. This study aims to evaluate the prevalence of non-progressed lung cysts detected by CT scan in adolescents and adults with germline DICER1 pathogenic/likely pathogenic (P/LP) variants.MethodsIndividuals were enrolled in the National Cancer Institute Natural History of DICER1 Syndrome study, the International PPB/DICER1 Registry and/or the International Ovarian and Testicular Stromal Tumor Registry. Individuals with a germline DICER1 P/LP variant with first chest CT at 12 years of age or older were selected for this analysis.ResultsIn the combined databases, 110 individuals with a germline DICER1 P/LP variant who underwent first chest CT at or after the age of 12 were identified. Cystic lung lesions were identified in 38% (42/110) with a total of 72 cystic lesions detected. No demographic differences were noted between those with lung cysts and those without lung cysts. Five cysts were resected with four centrally reviewed as type Ir PPB.ConclusionLung cysts are common in adolescents and adults with germline DICER1 variation. Further study is needed to understand the mechanism of non-progression or regression of lung cysts in childhood to guide judicious intervention.

Comprehensive annual screening reduces cancer-related mortality in Li-Fraumeni syndrome (LFS), a cancer-prone disorder caused by pathogenic germline TP53 variants. Blood tests at months 4 and 8 between annual screening are recommended but their effectiveness in early cancer detection has not been established. Interim blood counts and inflammatory biomarkers were evaluated in 132 individuals with LFS (112 adults, 87 female, median age 36 years [range 3–68], median follow-up 37 months [range 2–70]) and test abnormalities were observed in 225 (35%). Thirteen cancers in 12 individuals were diagnosed between annual screenings but only one cancer (colorectal adenocarcinoma) was diagnosed due to an abnormal interim blood test. Fisher’s exact test and generalized estimating equation models found no statistical associations between cancer diagnoses and any test abnormality. Four- and 8-monthly interim screening blood tests may not be of independent benefit for cancer detection in LFS, but annual cancer screening and personalized follow-up remain essential.

Genetic disorders are historically defined through phenotype-first approaches. However, risk estimates derived from phenotype-linked ascertainment may overestimate severity and penetrance. Pathogenic variants in DICER1 are associated with increased risks of rare and common neoplasms and thyroid disease in adults and children. This study explored how effectively a genome-first approach could characterize the clinical traits associated with germline DICER1 putative loss-of-function (pLOF) variants in an unselected clinical cohort. To examine the prevalence, penetrance, and phenotypic characteristics of carriers of germline DICER1 pLOF variants via genome-first ascertainment. This cohort study classifies DICER1 variants in germline exome sequence data from 92 296 participants of the Geisinger MyCode Community Health Initiative. Data for each MyCode participant were used from the start of the Geisinger electronic health record to February 1, 2018. Prevalence of germline DICER1 variation; penetrance of malignant tumors and thyroid disease in carriers of germline DICER1 variation; structured, manual review of electronic health records; and DICER1 sequencing of available tumors from an associated cancer registry. A total of 92 296 adults (mean [SD] age, 59 [18] years; 98% white; 60% female) participated in the study. Germline DICER1 pLOF variants were observed in 1 in 3700 to 1 in 4600 participants, more than double the expected prevalence. Malignant tumors (primarily thyroid carcinoma) were observed in 4 of 25 participants (16%) with DICER1 pLOF variants, which is comparable (by 50 years of age) to the frequency of neoplasms in the largest registry- and clinic-based (phenotype-first) DICER1 studies published to date. DICER1 pLOF variants were significantly associated with risks of thyroidectomy (odds ratio [OR], 6.0; 95% CI, 2.2-16.3; P = .007) and thyroid cancer (OR, 9.2; 95% CI, 2.1-34.7; P = .02) compared with controls, but there was not a significant increase in the risk of goiter (OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 0.7-4.9). A female patient in her 80s who was a carrier of a germline DICER1 hotspot variant was apparently healthy on electronic health record review. The term DICER1 did not appear in any of the medical records of the 25 participants with a pLOF DICER1 variant, even in those affected with a known DICER1-associated tumor or thyroid phenotype. This cohort study was able to ascertain individuals with germline DICER1 variants based on a genome-first approach rather than through a previously established DICER1-related phenotype. Use of the genome-first approach may complement more traditional approaches to syndrome delineation and may be an efficient approach for risk estimation.