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To identify patient- and disease-related characteristics that make it possible to predict higher disease severity in recent-onset PsA. We performed a multicenter observational prospective study (2-year follow-up, regular annual visits). The study population comprised patients aged ≥ 18 years who fulfilled the CASPAR criteria and less than 2 years since the onset of symptoms. Severe disease was defined at each visit as fulfillment of at least 1 of the following criteria: need for systemic treatment, Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) > 0.5, polyarthritis. The dataset contained data for the independent variables from the baseline visit and follow-up visit number 1. These were matched with the outcome measures from follow-up visits 1 and 2, respectively. We trained a logistic regression model and random forest-type and XGBoost machine learning algorithms to analyze the association between the outcome measure and the variables selected in the bivariate analysis. The sample comprised 158 patients. At the first follow-up visit, 78.2% of the patients who attended the clinic had severe disease. This percentage decreased to 76.4% at the second visit. The variables predicting severe disease were patient global pain, treatment with synthetic DMARDs, clinical form at diagnosis, high CRP, arterial hypertension, and psoriasis affecting the gluteal cleft and/or perianal area. The mean values of the measures of validity of the machine learning algorithms were all ≥ 80%. Our prediction model of severe disease advocates rigorous control of pain and inflammation, also addressing cardiometabolic comorbidities, in addition to actively searching for hidden psoriasis.

Background Biologic therapy has changed the prognosis of patients with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). The aim of this study was to examine the pattern of use, drug survival, and adverse events of biologics in patients with JIA during the period from diagnosis to adulthood. Methods All patients included in BIOBADASER (Spanish Registry for Adverse Events of Biological Therapy in Rheumatic Diseases), a multicenter prospective registry, diagnosed with JIA between 2000 and 2015 were analyzed. Proportions, means, and SDs were used to describe the population. Incidence rates and 95% CIs were calculated to assess adverse events. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to compare the drug survival rates. Results A total of 469 patients (46.1% women) were included. Their mean age at diagnosis was 9.4 ± 5.3 years. Their mean age at biologic treatment initiation was 23.9 ± 13.9 years. The pattern of use of biologics during their pediatric years showed a linear increase from 24% in 2000 to 65% in 2014. Biologic withdrawal for disease remission was higher in patients who initiated use biologics prior to 16 years of age than in those who were older (25.7% vs 7.9%, p  < 0.0001). Serious adverse events had a total incidence rate of 41.4 (35.2–48.7) of 1000 patient-years. Patients younger than 16 years old showed significantly increased infections ( p  < 0.001). Conclusions Survival and suspension by remission of biologics were higher when these compounds were initiated in patients with JIA who had not yet reached 16 years of age. The incidence rate of serious adverse events in pediatric vs adult patients with JIA treated with biologics was similar; however, a significant increase of infection was observed in patients under 16 years old.

The aim was to identify patient- and disease-related characteristics predicting moderate-to-high disease activity in recent-onset psoriatic arthritis (PsA). We performed a multicenter observational prospective study (2-year follow-up, regular annual visits) in patients aged ≥18 years who fulfilled the CASPAR criteria and had less than 2 years since the onset of symptoms. The moderate-to-high activity of PsA was defined as DAPSA > 14. We trained a logistic regression model and random forest–type and XGBoost machine learning algorithms to analyze the association between the outcome measure and the variables selected in the bivariate analysis. The sample comprised 158 patients. At the first follow-up visit, 20.8% of the patients who attended the clinic had a moderate-to-severe disease. This percentage rose to 21.2% on the second visit. The variables predicting moderate-high activity were the PsAID score, tender joint count, level of physical activity, and sex. The mean values of the measures of validity of the machine learning algorithms were all high, especially sensitivity (98%; 95% CI: 86.89–100.00). PsAID was the most important variable in the prediction algorithms, reinforcing the convenience of its inclusion in daily clinical practice. Strategies that focus on the needs of women with PsA should be considered.

Background Very few data are available on predictors of minimal disease activity (MDA) in patients with recent-onset psoriatic arthritis (PsA). Such data are crucial, since the therapeutic measures used to change the adverse course of PsA are more likely to succeed if we intervene early. In the present study, we used predictive models based on machine learning to detect variables associated with achieving MDA in patients with recent-onset PsA. Methods We performed a multicenter observational prospective study (2-year follow-up, regular annual visits). The study population comprised patients aged ≥18 years who fulfilled the CASPAR criteria and less than 2 years since the onset of symptoms. The dataset contained data for the independent variables from the baseline visit and from follow-up visit number 1. These were matched with the outcome measures from follow-up visits 1 and 2, respectively. We trained a random forest–type machine learning algorithm to analyze the association between the outcome measure and the variables selected in the bivariate analysis. In order to understand how the model uses the variables to make its predictions, we applied the SHAP technique. We used a confusion matrix to visualize the performance of the model. Results The sample comprised 158 patients. 55.5% and 58.3% of the patients had MDA at the first and second follow-up visit, respectively. In our model, the variables with the greatest predictive ability were global pain, impact of the disease (PsAID), patient global assessment of disease, and physical function (HAQ-Disability Index). The percentage of hits in the confusion matrix was 85.94%. Conclusions A key objective in the management of PsA should be control of pain, which is not always associated with inflammatory burden, and the establishment of measures to better control the various domains of PsA.