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Objective To assess the cancer risk in children and adolescents following exposure to low dose ionising radiation from diagnostic computed tomography (CT) scans.Design Population based, cohort, data linkage study in Australia.Cohort members 10.9 million people identified from Australian Medicare records, aged 0-19 years on 1 January 1985 or born between 1 January 1985 and 31 December 2005; all exposures to CT scans funded by Medicare during 1985-2005 were identified for this cohort. Cancers diagnosed in cohort members up to 31 December 2007 were obtained through linkage to national cancer records.Main outcome Cancer incidence rates in individuals exposed to a CT scan more than one year before any cancer diagnosis, compared with cancer incidence rates in unexposed individuals.Results 60 674 cancers were recorded, including 3150 in 680 211 people exposed to a CT scan at least one year before any cancer diagnosis. The mean duration of follow-up after exposure was 9.5 years. Overall cancer incidence was 24% greater for exposed than for unexposed people, after accounting for age, sex, and year of birth (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.24 (95% confidence interval 1.20 to 1.29); P<0.001). We saw a dose-response relation, and the IRR increased by 0.16 (0.13 to 0.19) for each additional CT scan. The IRR was greater after exposure at younger ages (P<0.001 for trend). At 1-4, 5-9, 10-14, and 15 or more years since first exposure, IRRs were 1.35 (1.25 to 1.45), 1.25 (1.17 to 1.34), 1.14 (1.06 to 1.22), and 1.24 (1.14 to 1.34), respectively. The IRR increased significantly for many types of solid cancer (digestive organs, melanoma, soft tissue, female genital, urinary tract, brain, and thyroid); leukaemia, myelodysplasia, and some other lymphoid cancers. There was an excess of 608 cancers in people exposed to CT scans (147 brain, 356 other solid, 48 leukaemia or myelodysplasia, and 57 other lymphoid). The absolute excess incidence rate for all cancers combined was 9.38 per 100 000 person years at risk, as of 31 December 2007. The average effective radiation dose per scan was estimated as 4.5 mSv.Conclusions The increased incidence of cancer after CT scan exposure in this cohort was mostly due to irradiation. Because the cancer excess was still continuing at the end of follow-up, the eventual lifetime risk from CT scans cannot yet be determined. Radiation doses from contemporary CT scans are likely to be lower than those in 1985-2005, but some increase in cancer risk is still likely from current scans. Future CT scans should be limited to situations where there is a definite clinical indication, with every scan optimised to provide a diagnostic CT image at the lowest possible radiation dose.

Background We developed a colorectal cancer risk prediction tool (‘CRISP’) to provide individualised risk-based advice for colorectal cancer screening. Using known environmental, behavioural, and familial risk factors, CRISP was designed to facilitate tailored screening advice to patients aged 50 to 74 years in general practice. In parallel to a randomised controlled trial of the CRISP tool, we developed and evaluated an evidence-based implementation strategy. Methods Qualitative methods were used to explore the implementation of CRISP in general practice. Using one general practice in regional Victoria, Australia, as a ‘laboratory’, we tested ways to embed CRISP into routine clinical practice. General practitioners, nurses, and operations manager co-designed the implementation methods with researchers, focussing on existing practice processes that would be sustainable. Researchers interviewed the staff regularly to assess the successfulness of the strategies employed, and implementation methods were adapted throughout the study period in response to feedback from qualitative interviews. The Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR) underpinned the development of the interview guide and intervention strategy. Coding was inductive and themes were developed through consensus between the authors. Emerging themes were mapped onto the CFIR domains and a fidelity checklist was developed to ensure CRISP was being used as intended. Results Between December 2016 and September 2019, 1 interviews were conducted, both face-to-face and via videoconferencing (Zoom). All interviews were transcribed verbatim and coded. Themes were mapped onto the following CFIR domains: (1) ‘characteristics of the intervention’: CRISP was valued but time consuming; (2) ‘inner setting’: the practice was open to changing systems; 3. ‘outer setting’: CRISP helped facilitate screening; (4) ‘individual characteristics’: the practice staff were adaptable and able to facilitate adoption of new clinical processes; and (5) ‘processes’: fidelity checking, and education was important. Conclusions These results describe a novel method for exploring implementation strategies for a colorectal cancer risk prediction tool in the context of a parallel RCT testing clinical efficacy. The study identified successful and unsuccessful implementation strategies using an adaptive methodology over time. This method emphasised the importance of co-design input to make an intervention like CRISP sustainable for use in other practices and with other risk tools.

Background and objectives: Research suggests that older patients want to talk about sexual health, but are reluctant to initiate these discussions with health practitioners. Little is known of the practitioners' perspectives. The objective of this study was to explore health practitioners' knowledge of and attitudes towards management of sexual health among older patients. Method: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 15 general practitioners (GPs) and six practice nurses in rural/ metropolitan general practices in March to June 2017 in Victoria, Australia. Results: Most GPs believed it was appropriate to discuss sexual health with older patients but did not routinely do so. Common barriers included age and gender discordance between GP and patient, complexity of patient comorbidities and patient - doctor relationships. Practice nurses identified the limitations of their role as a barrier, although some nurses initiated discussions during health assessments. Discussion: Health practitioners generally believed the responsibility for initiation of sexual health discussions rested with patients, but understood patients' reluctance. They saw the need for an intervention to assist in such discussions.

BackgroundClassifying individuals at high chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)-risk creates opportunities for early COPD detection and active intervention.ObjectiveTo develop and validate a statistical model to predict 10-year probabilities of COPD defined by post-bronchodilator airflow obstruction (post-BD-AO; forced expiratory volume in 1 s/forced vital capacity<5th percentile).SettingGeneral Caucasian populations from Australia and Europe, 10 and 27 centres, respectively.ParticipantsFor the development cohort, questionnaire data on respiratory symptoms, smoking, asthma, occupation and participant sex were from the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (TAHS) participants at age 41–45 years (n=5729) who did not have self-reported COPD/emphysema at baseline but had post-BD spirometry and smoking status at age 51–55 years (n=2407). The validation cohort comprised participants from the European Community Respiratory Health Survey (ECRHS) II and III (n=5970), restricted to those of age 40–49 and 50–59 with complete questionnaire and spirometry/smoking data, respectively (n=1407).Statistical methodRisk-prediction models were developed using randomForest then externally validated.ResultsArea under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCROC) of the final model was 80.8% (95% CI 80.0% to 81.6%), sensitivity 80.3% (77.7% to 82.9%), specificity 69.1% (68.7% to 69.5%), positive predictive value (PPV) 11.1% (10.3% to 11.9%) and negative predictive value (NPV) 98.7% (98.5% to 98.9%). The external validation was fair (AUCROC 75.6%), with the PPV increasing to 17.9% and NPV still 97.5% for adults aged 40–49 years with ≥1 respiratory symptom. To illustrate the model output using hypothetical case scenarios, a 43-year-old female unskilled worker who smoked 20 cigarettes/day for 30 years had a 27% predicted probability for post-BD-AO at age 53 if she continued to smoke. The predicted risk was 42% if she had coexistent active asthma, but only 4.5% if she had quit after age 43.ConclusionThis novel and validated risk-prediction model could identify adults aged in their 40s at high 10-year COPD-risk in the general population with potential to facilitate active monitoring/intervention in predicted ‘COPD cases’ at a much earlier age.

Background Australia and New Zealand have the highest incidence rates of colorectal cancer worldwide. In Australia there is significant unwarranted variation in colorectal cancer screening due to low uptake of the immunochemical faecal occult blood test, poor identification of individuals at increased risk of colorectal cancer, and over-referral of individuals at average risk for colonoscopy. Our pre-trial research has developed a novel Colorectal cancer RISk Prediction (CRISP) tool, which could be used to implement precision screening in primary care. This paper describes the protocol for a phase II multi-site individually randomised controlled trial of the CRISP tool in primary care. Methods This trial aims to test whether a standardised consultation using the CRISP tool in general practice (the CRISP intervention) increases risk-appropriate colorectal cancer screening compared to control participants who receive standardised information on cancer prevention. Patients between 50 and 74 years old, attending an appointment with their general practitioner for any reason, will be invited into the trial. A total of 732 participants will be randomised to intervention or control arms using a computer-generated allocation sequence stratified by general practice. The primary outcome (risk-appropriate screening at 12 months) will be measured using baseline data for colorectal cancer risk and objective health service data to measure screening behaviour. Secondary outcomes will include participant cancer risk perception, anxiety, cancer worry, screening intentions and health service utilisation measured at 1, 6 and 12 months post randomisation. Discussion This trial tests a systematic approach to implementing risk-stratified colorectal cancer screening in primary care, based on an individual’s absolute risk, using a state-of-the-art risk assessment tool. Trial results will be reported in 2020. Trial registration Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry, ACTRN12616001573448p . Registered on 14 November 2016.

Background and objectives: Older patients want to discuss sexual health with general practitioners (GPs) but feel uncomfortable doing so, as do their GPs. Online and digital aids (ODAs) are used in other clinical contexts and could provide an effective tool to overcome this discomfort. The aim of this study was to explore health practitioners' views on the type of ODA that could be used to facilitate sexual health discussions between older patients (aged ≥60 years) and health practitioners. Methods: Thirty-seven interviews were conducted in Victoria, Australia, between March and June 2017. Participants comprised 15 GPs, 12 practice nurses or practice managers and 10 key informants (five in sexual health, five in ODAs). Results: Most ODAs currently available target younger populations. Checklists or self-service kiosks may provide effective means to facilitate sexual health discussions with older patients in primary care. Discussion: ODAs are acceptable and feasible to implement in younger populations but need testing with older patients. Health professionals need training to deal with sexual health matters arising from using such aids.

Background and objectives: Many Australians at average risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) are undergoing unnecessary colonoscopic screening, while many at increased risk are getting inadequate screening. The aim of this study was to test different ways of communicating the risks and benefits of CRC screening, as part of the development of a CRC risk prediction (CRISP) tool. Method: General practice patients were shown five different risk presentations for hypothetical ‘average’ and ‘increased’ risk cases and were asked to choose the screening method they would undergo. Associations were explored between risk presentation type and ‘riskappropriate screening’ choice. Results: All risk formats were associated with improved risk-appropriate screening by participants (n = 204); however, there was a statistical trend favouring absolute risk with a government recommendation and an ‘expected frequency tree’. The icon array was most weakly associated with appropriate screening. Discussion: This research will inform approaches to communicating risk in CRISP and may be of wider relevance to supporting informed decisions about cancer screening.

We aimed to develop a user-centered, web-based, decision support tool for breast cancer risk assessment and personalized risk management. Using a novel model choice algorithm, iPrevent ® selects one of two validated breast cancer risk estimation models (IBIS or BOADICEA), based on risk factor data entered by the user. Resulting risk estimates are presented in simple language and graphic formats for easy comprehension. iPrevent ® then presents risk-adapted, evidence-based, guideline-endorsed management options. Development was an iterative process with regular feedback from multidisciplinary experts and consumers. To verify iPrevent ® , risk factor data for 127 cases derived from the Australian Breast Cancer Family Study were entered into iPrevent ® , IBIS (v7.02), and BOADICEA (v3.0). Consistency of the model chosen by iPrevent ® (i.e., IBIS or BOADICEA) with the programmed iPrevent ® model choice algorithm was assessed. Estimated breast cancer risks from iPrevent ® were compared with those attained directly from the chosen risk assessment model (IBIS or BOADICEA). Risk management interventions displayed by iPrevent ® were assessed for appropriateness. Risk estimation model choice was 100 % consistent with the programmed iPrevent ® logic. Discrepant 10-year and residual lifetime risk estimates of >1 % were found for 1 and 4 cases, respectively, none was clinically significant (maximal variation 1.4 %). Risk management interventions suggested by iPrevent ® were 100 % appropriate. iPrevent ® successfully integrates the IBIS and BOADICEA risk assessment models into a decision support tool that provides evidence-based, risk-adapted risk management advice. This may help to facilitate precision breast cancer prevention discussions between women and their healthcare providers.

Background In Australia, screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) with colonoscopy is meant to be reserved for people at increased risk, however, currently there is a mismatch between individuals’ risk of CRC and the type of CRC screening they receive. This paper describes the development and optimisation of a Colorectal cancer RISk Prediction tool (‘CRISP’) for use in primary care. The aim of the CRISP tool is to increase risk-appropriate CRC screening. Methods CRISP development was informed by previous experience with developing risk tools for use in primary care and a systematic review of the evidence. A CRISP prototype was used in simulated consultations by general practitioners (GPs) with actors as patients. GPs were interviewed to explore their experience of using CRISP, and practice nurses (PNs) and practice managers (PMs) were interviewed after a demonstration of CRISP. Transcribed interviews and video footage of the ‘consultations’ were qualitatively analyzed. Themes arising from the data were mapped onto Normalization Process Theory (NPT). Results Fourteen GPs, nine PNs and six PMs were recruited from 12 clinics. Results were described using the four constructs of NPT: 1) Coherence : Clinicians understood the rationale behind CRISP, particularly since they were familiar with using risk tools for other conditions; 2) Cognitive participation: GPs welcomed the opportunity CRISP provided to discuss healthy and unhealthy behaviors with their patients, but many GPs challenged the screening recommendation generated by CRISP; 3) Collective Action: CRISP disrupted clinician-patient flow if the GP was less comfortable with computers. GP consultation time was a major implementation barrier and overall consensus was that PNs have more capacity and time to use CRISP effectively; 4) Reflexive monitoring: Limited systematic monitoring of new interventions is a potential barrier to the sustainable embedding of CRISP. Conclusions CRISP has the potential to improve risk-appropriate CRC screening in primary care but was considered more likely to be successfully implemented as a nurse-led intervention.

iPrevent estimates breast cancer (BC) risk and provides tailored risk management information. The objective of this study was to assess the usability and acceptability of the iPrevent prototype. Clinicians were eligible for participation in the study if they worked in primary care, breast surgery, or genetics clinics. Female patients aged 18-70 years with no personal cancer history were eligible. Clinicians were first familiarized with iPrevent using hypothetical paper-based cases and then actor scenarios; subsequently, they used iPrevent with their patients. Clinicians and patients completed the System Usability Scale (SUS) and an Acceptability questionnaire 2 weeks after using iPrevent; patients also completed measures of BC worry, anxiety, risk perception, and knowledge pre- and 2 weeks post-iPrevent. Data were summarized using descriptive statistics. The SUS and Acceptability questionnaires were completed by 19 of 20 clinicians and 37 of 43 patients. Usability was above average (SUS score >68) for 68% (13/19) clinicians and 76% (28/37) patients. The amount of information provided by iPrevent was reported as \"about right\" by 89% (17/19) clinicians and 89% (33/37) patients and 95% (18/19) and 97% (36/37), respectively, would recommend iPrevent to others, although 53% (10/19) clinicians and 27% (10/37) patients found it too long. Exploratory analyses suggested that iPrevent could improve risk perception, decrease frequency of BC worry, and enhance BC prevention knowledge without changing state anxiety. The iPrevent prototype demonstrated good usability and acceptability. Because concerns about length could be an implementation barrier, data entry has been abbreviated in the publicly available version of iPrevent.