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ObjectivesWe aimed to estimate the fraction of deaths from ovarian cancer attributable to asbestos exposure in Lombardy Region, Italy, using a novel approach that exploits the fact that ovarian cancer asbestos exposure is associated with pleural cancer and other risk factors for breast cancer.MethodsThis ecological study is based on the Italian National Institute of Statistics mortality data. We formulate a trivariate Bayesian joint disease model to estimate the attributable fraction (AF) and the number of ovarian cancer deaths attributable to asbestos exposure from the geographic distribution of ovarian, pleural and breast cancer mortality at the municipality level from 2000 to 2018. Expected deaths and standardised mortality ratios were calculated using regional rates.ResultsWe found shared dependencies between ovarian and pleural cancer, which capture risk factors common to the two diseases (asbestos exposure), and a spatially structured clustering component shared between ovarian and breast cancer, capturing other risk factors. Based on 10 462 ovarian cancer deaths, we estimated that 574 (95% credibility interval 388–819) were attributable to asbestos (AF 5.5%; 95% credibility interval 3.7–7.8). AF reaches 34%–47% in some municipalities with known heavy asbestos pollution.ConclusionsThe impact of asbestos on ovarian cancer occurrence can be relevant, particularly in areas with high asbestos exposure. Estimating attributable cases was possible only by using advanced Bayesian modelling to consider other risk factors for ovarian cancer. These findings are instrumental in tailoring public health surveillance programmes and implementing compensation and prevention policies.

Background Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are associated with many adverse health conditions. Among the main effects is carcinogenicity in humans, which deserves to be further clarified. An evident association has been reported for kidney cancer and testicular cancer. In 2013, a large episode of surface, ground and drinking water contamination with PFAS was uncovered in three provinces of the Veneto Region (northern Italy) involving 30 municipalities and a population of about 150,000. We report on the temporal evolution of all-cause mortality and selected cause-specific mortality by calendar period and birth cohort in the local population between 1980 and 2018. Methods The Italian National Institute of Health pre-processed and made available anonymous data from the Italian National Institute of Statistics death certificate archives for residents of the provinces of Vicenza, Padua and Verona (males, n  = 29,629; females, n  = 29,518) who died between 1980 and 2018. Calendar period analysis was done by calculating standardised mortality ratios using the total population of the three provinces in the same calendar period as reference. The birth cohort analysis was performed using 20–84 years cumulative standardised mortality ratios. Exposure was defined as being resident in one of the 30 municipalities of the Red area , where the aqueduct supplying drinking water was fed by the contaminated groundwater. Results During the 34 years between 1985 (assumed as beginning date of water contamination) and 2018 (last year of availability of cause-specific mortality data), in the resident population of the Red area we observed 51,621 deaths vs. 47,731 expected (age- and sex-SMR: 108; 90% CI: 107–109). We found evidence of raised mortality from cardiovascular disease (in particular, heart diseases and ischemic heart disease) and malignant neoplastic diseases, including kidney cancer and testicular cancer. Conclusions For the first time, an association of PFAS exposure with mortality from cardiovascular disease was formally demonstrated. The evidence regarding kidney cancer and testicular cancer is consistent with previously reported data.

The different and seemingly unrelated practices of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) used to collect and share personal and scientific data within networked communities, and the organized storage of human genetic samples and information—namely biobanking—have merged with another recent epistemic and social phenomenon, namely scientists and citizens collaborating as “peers” in creating knowledge (or peer-production of knowledge). These different dimensions can be found in joint initiatives where scientists-and-citizens use genetic information and ICT as powerful ways to gain more control over their health and the environment. While this kind of initiative usually takes place only after rights have been infringed (or are put at risk)—as the two cases presented in the paper show—collaborative scientists-and-citizens’ knowledge should be institutionally allowed to complement and corroborate official knowledge-supporting policies.

Efforts to prevent and respond to heat-related illness would benefit by quantifying the impact of summer heat on acute population mortality. We estimated years of life lost due to heat in 14 European cities during the 1990s accounting for harvesting. We combined the number of deaths attributable to heat estimated by the PHEWE project with life expectancy derived from population life tables. The degree of harvesting was quantified by comparing the cumulative effect of heat up to lagged day 30 with the immediate effect of heat, by geographical region and age. Next, an evaluation of years of life lost adjusted for harvesting was obtained. Without accounting for harvesting, we estimated more than 23,000 years of life lost per year, 55% of which was among individuals younger than 75. When 30 day mortality displacement was taken into account, the overall impact reduced on average by 75%. Harvesting was more pronounced in North-continental cities than in Mediterranean cities and was stronger among young people than among elderly. High ambient temperatures during summer were responsible for many deaths in European cities during the 1990s, but a large percentage of these deaths likely involved frail persons whose demise was only briefly hastened by heat exposure. Differences in harvesting across regions and classes of age could reflect different proportions of frail individuals in the population or could be indicative of heterogeneous dynamics underlying the entry and exit of individuals from the high-risk pool which is subject to mortality displacement.

To determine the acute effects on respiratory function of children exposed to sulphur dioxide (SO2), we conducted two population-based longitudinal investigations near a major oil refinery. We enrolled 233 children, age 8–14, in Sarroch (Italy). The first study entailed five monthly spirometric visits (Panel 5). In a subgroup, children positive for history of respiratory symptoms were tested weekly (20 times) with spirometry and fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) measurement (Panel 20). Baseline questionnaires and daily diaries were recorded. SO2, NO2, PM10 and O3 were measured by monitoring stations. Multiple regression models were fitted. Using a multipollutant model, we found that a 10 µg/m3 SO2 increase at lag0–2 days determined a percent variation (PV) of −3.37 (90% confidence interval, CI: −5.39; −1.30) for forced expiratory volume after one second (FEV1) in Panel 5 and a PV = −3.51 (90% CI: −4.77; −2.23) in Panel 20. We found a strong dose-response relation: 1-h SO2 peaks >200 µg/m3 at lag2 days = FEV1 PV −2.49. For FeNO, we found a PV = 38.12 (90% CI: 12.88; 69.01) for each 10 µg/m3 SO2 increase at 8-h time lag and a strong dose-response relation. Exposure to SO2 is strongly associated with reduction of lung function and an increase in airway inflammation. This new evidence of harmful effects of SO2 peaks should induce regulatory intervention.

Background: Asbestos exposure is a recognized risk factor for ovarian cancer and malignant mesothelioma. There are reports in the literature of geographical ecological associations between the occurrence of these two diseases. Our aim was to further explore this association by applying advanced Bayesian techniques to a large population (10 million people). Methods: We specified a series of Bayesian hierarchical shared models to the bivariate spatial distribution of ovarian and pleural cancer mortality by municipality in the Lombardy Region (Italy) in 2000–2018. Results: Pleural cancer showed a strongly clustered spatial distribution, while ovarian cancer showed a less structured spatial pattern. The most supported Bayesian models by predictive accuracy (widely applicable or Watanabe–Akaike information criterion, WAIC) provided evidence of a shared component between the two diseases. Among five municipalities with significant high standardized mortality ratios of ovarian cancer, three also had high pleural cancer rates. Wide uncertainty was present when addressing the risk of ovarian cancer associated with pleural cancer in areas at low background risk of ovarian cancer. Conclusions: We found evidence of a shared risk factor between ovarian and pleural cancer at the small geographical level. The impact of the shared risk factor can be relevant and can go unnoticed when the prevalence of other risk factors for ovarian cancer is low. Bayesian modelling provides useful information to tailor epidemiological surveillance.

Background: Epidemiologic studies show that high temperatures are related to mortality, but little is known about the exposure-response function and the lagged effect of heat. We report the associations between daily maximum apparent temperature and daily deaths during the warm season in 15 European cities. Methods: The city-specific analyses were based on generalized estimating equations and the city-specific results were combined in a Bayesian random effects meta-analysis. We specified distributed lag models in studying the delayed effect of exposure. Time-varying coefficient models were used to check the assumption of a constant heat effect over the warm season. Results: The city-specific exposure-response functions have a V shape, with a change-point that varied among cities. The meta-analytic estimate of the threshold was 29.4°C for Mediterranean cities and 23.3°C for north-continental cities. The estimated overall change in all natural mortality associated with a 1°C increase in maximum apparent temperature above the city-specific threshold was 3.12% (95% credibility interval = 0.60% to 5.72%) in the Mediterranean region and 1.84% (0.06% to 3.64%) in the north-continental region. Stronger associations were found between heat and mortality from respiratory diseases, and with mortality in the elderly. Conclusions: There is an important mortality effect of heat across Europe. The effect is evident from June through August; it is limited to the first week following temperature excess, with evidence of mortality displacement. There is some suggestion of a higher effect of early season exposures. Acclimatization and individual susceptibility need further investigation as possible explanations for the observed heterogeneity among cities.

Vinyl-chloride monomer (VCM) is classified as a known carcinogen of the liver; for lung cancer, some results suggest a potential association with polyvinyl chloride (PVC) dust. We evaluated the relationship between lung cancer mortality and exposure as PVC baggers in a cohort of workers involved in VCM production and polymerization in Porto Marghera (Venice, Italy) considering both employment status and smoking habits. The workers were studied between 1973 and 2017. A subset of them (848 over 1658) was interviewed in the 2000s to collect information about smoking habits and alcohol consumption. Missing values were imputed by the Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE) algorithm. We calculated standardized mortality ratios (SMR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) using regional reference rates by task (never, ever, and exclusively baggers) and by smoking habits. Mortality rate ratios (MRR), adjusted for age, calendar time, time since first exposure, and smoking habits, were obtained via Poisson regression using Rubin’s rule to combine results from imputed datasets calculating the fraction of information due to non-response. Lung cancer mortality was lower than the regional reference in the whole cohort (lung cancer SMR = 0.92; 95% CI 0.75–1.11). PVC baggers showed a 50% increase in lung cancer mortality compared to regional rates (SMR = 1.48; 95% CI 0.82–2.68). In the cohort analyses, a doubled risk of lung cancer mortality among PVC baggers was confirmed after adjustment for smoking and time-dependent covariates (MRR = 1.99, 95% CI 1.04–3.81). Exposure to PVC dust resulting from activity as bagger in a polymerization PVC plant was associated with an increase in lung cancer mortality risk after adjustment for smoking habits.

ObjectiveThirty-four geothermal power plants for the production of electricity are currently active in the geothermal areas in Tuscany. The present study aimed to investigate the association between short-term exposure to hydrogen sulfide (H2S) and acute health outcomes.MethodsThis study used individual data on non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, urgent hospital admissions (HA) and emergency department (ED) visits for cardiorespiratory diseases occurring from 2000 to 2017. All cases were georeferenced and matched to daily H2S data, derived from 18 monitoring sites. A case-crossover design following the matched pair interval approach was applied and conditional logistic regression models were fitted to estimate odds ratios and their 90% confidence intervals, adjusting for a set of time-dependent variables, such as influenza epidemics, holidays and temperature.ResultsA total of 8054 deaths, 30,527 HA and 15,263 ED visits occurred. Mortality for non-accidental (OR = 1.11, 90% CI 1.02–1.22) and cardiovascular causes (OR = 1.22, 90% CI 1.03–1.44) were associated with an increase of 10 µg/m3 of H2S daily levels only among men. Hospital admissions for respiratory diseases were positively associated with H2S exposure: OR = 1.11 (90% CI 1.00–1.22) among women. No associations were observed in ED visits analyses.ConclusionsIn this case-crossover study in the Tuscan geothermal areas, short-term exposure to H2S was weakly associated with some mortality and morbidity outcomes. Our findings did not show a clear pattern as the results were not homogeneous between mortality and morbidity data or between men and women.

To develop the Functional Risk Index for Dependence in Ambulation (FRIDA) score, a nomogram to predict individual risk of dependence in ambulation at discharge from postacute rehabilitation and validate its performance temporally and spatially. We analyzed the database of a multicenter prospective observational quality cohort study conducted from January 2012 to March 2016, including data from 8,796 consecutive inpatients who underwent rehabilitation after stroke, hip fracture, lower limb joint replacement, debility, and other neurologic, orthopedic, or miscellaneous conditions. A total of 3,026 patients (34.4%) were discharged dependent in ambulation. In the training set of 5,162 patients (58.7%), Lasso-regression selected advanced age, premorbid disability, and eight indicators of medical and functional adverse syndromes at baseline to establish the FRIDA score. At the temporal validation obtained on an external set of 3,234 patients (41.3%), meta-analyses showed that the FRIDA score had good and homogeneous discrimination (summary area under the curve 0.841, 95% confidence interval = 0.826–0.855, I2 = 0.00%) combined with accurate calibration (summary Log O/E ratio 0.017, 95% confidence interval −0.155 to 0.190). These performances remained stable at spatial validation obtained on 3,626 patients, with substantial heterogeneity of estimates across nine facilities. Decision curve analyses showed that a FRIDA score–supported strategy far outperformed the usual “treat all” approach in each impairment categories. The FRIDA score is a new clinically useful tool to predict an individual risk for dependence in ambulation at rehabilitation discharge in many different disabilities, and may also reflect well the case-mix composition of the rehabilitation facilities. [Display omitted]