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How powerful are political parties in shaping citizens' opinions? Despite long-standing interest in the flow of influence between partisan elites and citizens, few studies to date examine how citizens react when their party changes its position on a major issue in the real world. We present a rare quasi-experimental panel study of how citizens responded when their political party suddenly reversed its position on two major and salient welfare issues in Denmark. With a fivewave panel survey collected just around these two events, we show that citizens' policy opinions changed immediately and substantially when their party switched its policy position—even when the new position went against citizens' previously held views. These findings advance the current, largely experimental literature on partisan elite influence.

Scholars often evaluate citizens' democratic competence by focusing on their ability to get relevant facts right. In this article, I show why this approach can yield misleading conclusions about citizen competence. I argue that although citizens with strong partisan loyalties might be forced to accept the same facts, they find alternative ways to rationalize reality. One such way, I show, is through the selective attribution of credit and blame. With four randomized experiments, conducted in diverse national settings and containing closed- as well as open-ended questions, I find that as partisans correctly updated economic beliefs to reflect new facts, they conversely attributed responsibility in a highly selective fashion. Although partisans might acknowledge the same facts, they are apt in seizing on and producing attributional arguments that fit their preferred worldviews.

Partisans often perceive real world conditions in a manner that credits their own party. Yet recent findings suggest that partisans are capable of setting their loyalties aside when confronted with clear evidence, for example, during an economic crisis. This study examines a different possibility. While partisans may acknowledge the same reality, they may find other ways of aligning undeniable realities with their party loyalties. Using monthly survey data collected before and after the unexpected collapse of the British national economy (2004–10), this study presents one key finding: As partisans came to agree that economic conditions had gotten much worse, they conversely polarized in whether they thought the government was responsible. While the most committed partisans were surprisingly apt in acknowledging the economic collapse, they were also the most eager to attribute responsibility selectively. For that substantial share of the electorate, partisan-motivated reasoning seems highly adaptive.

Partisanship often colors how citizens perceive real-world conditions. For example, an oft-documented finding is that citizens tend to view the state of the national economy more positively if their party holds office. These partisan perceptual gaps are usually taken as a result of citizens' own motivated reasoning to defend their party identity. However, little is known about the extent to which perceptual gaps are shaped by one of the most important forces in politics: partisan elites. With two studies focusing on perceptions of the economy—a quasi-experimental panel study and a randomized experiment—we show how partisan perceptual differences are substantially affected by messages coming from party elites. These findings imply that partisan elites are more influential on, and more responsible for, partisan perceptual differences than previous studies have revealed.

Do political parties influence opinion when citizens have a personal stake in policy? With an experimental design that exploits a naturally occurring, sharp variation in party cues, we study the effects of party cues during a collective bargaining conflict over the salary and work rights for public employees in Denmark. Even in this context—where the self-interest of public employees was strongly mobilized and where their party went against it—we find that party cues move opinion among partisans at least as much as in previous studies. But party cues do not lead citizens to go against their self-interest. Rather, we show that party cues temper the pursuit of self-interest among public employees by moderating the most extreme policy demands. These findings highlight an unappreciated potential of political parties to moderate—not fuel—extreme opinion.

Competition between political parties is a fundamental feature of democratic politics, but it is underplayed in the target article. We argue that a more comprehensive understanding of “folk-economic beliefs” (FEBs) must consider the ability of partisan elites to both shape citizens' economic beliefs and connect them to political choices. We review recent empirical findings supporting this theoretical perspective.

The state of the national economy often directs voting. But how do citizens form perceptions of a complex and abstract macroeconomy? This study examines whether exposure to unemployment in citizens’ immediate residential surroundings shapes their perceptions of the national economy. Using novel data tapping the official proportion of unemployed people residing within radii between 80 and 2,500 meters of an individual’s place of residence, we confront common methodological and theoretical challenges in existing work. Findings show that citizens do rely on cues from their residential microcontexts when forming perceptions of the national economy. Furthermore, we provide evidence that measures of unemployment in more aggregate contexts are not only poor reflections of what individuals are likely to experience in their immediate neighborhood but also seem to capture a different mechanism related to local media exposure.

The composition of the human gut microbiome matures within the first years of life. It has been hypothesized that microbial compositions in this period can cause immune dysregulations and potentially cause asthma. Here we show, by associating gut microbial composition from 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing during the first year of life with subsequent risk of asthma in 690 participants, that 1-year-old children with an immature microbial composition have an increased risk of asthma at age 5 years. This association is only apparent among children born to asthmatic mothers, suggesting that lacking microbial stimulation during the first year of life can trigger their inherited asthma risk. Conversely, adequate maturation of the gut microbiome in this period may protect these pre-disposed children. Colonization of commensal bacteria is thought to impact immune development, especially in the earliest years of life. Here, the authors show, by analyzing the development of the gut microbiome of 690 children, that microbial composition at the age of 1 year is associated with asthma diagnosed in the first 5 years of life.