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"Biswas, Rajiv"
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Reshaping the financial architecture for development finance: the new development banks
In 2014 several groupings of developing countries agreed to set up a series of new multilateral development finance institutions. These include the BRICS-sponsored New Development Bank, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Silk Road Fund. This paper examines the role these new institutions might play in reshaping the international financial architecture of development finance. A key concern of developing countries is the widening gap between the weight of developing countries' GDP in the global economy and their voting rights in the IMF and World Bank governing structures. Unless substantial reforms are made to the distribution of voting rights, the asymmetry between the importance of developing countries to the world and their governance of the Bretton Woods institutions will continue to worsen, particularly for the Asian BRICS. Recognising that these new development finance initiatives can strengthen its political and economic ties with other developing countries, China has played a significant leadership role in launching these initiatives, and has become the key source of capital for the new institutions. However, a major challenge for these new institutions will be to craft governance structures and decision-making procedures that have a high degree of integrity, transparency and independence from political influence when making lending decisions.
Paper
AN ANALYSIS OF POST-WAR GROWTH RATES AND AN ILLUSTRATIVE LONG-TERM PROJECTION
Even with the contribution from North Sea oil, the British economy has on average since 1973 grown very slowly—barely half as fast as it did during the earlier post-war period. However the period since 1973 cannot be regarded in any sense as normal; for it incorporates two major recessions, and the recovery from these has clearly not been complete.
Journal Article
The British Economy in the Long Term: An Analysis of Post-War Growth Rates and an Illustrative Long-Term Projection
Even with the contribution from North Sea oil, the UK economy has on average since 1973 grown quite slowly -- barely half as fast as it did during the earlier postwar period. However, the period since 1973 cannot be considered normal, for it incorporates 2 major recessions, the recovery from which has not been complete. In order to examine the long-term future, it is necessary to look back over a much longer period of time to try to separate trends in potential output from variations in the extent to which that potential is realized. The slowdown in output growth after 1973 was associated with an even more dramatic slowing down in (non-oil) productivity growth. The output slowdown can be largely attributed to a lowering in the pressure of demand. Two developments will tend to reduce the growth rate in total potential output during the latter 1980s: 1. the downturn in North Sea oil production, and 2. the deceleration of growth in population of working age. The future productivity trend will be affected by the shift to services and the oil price drop.
Journal Article