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This paper proposes a new way of using forward selection of explanatory variables in regression or canonical redundancy analysis. The classical forward selection method presents two problems: a highly inflated Type I error and an overestimation of the amount of explained variance. Correcting these problems will greatly improve the performance of this very useful method in ecological modeling. To prevent the first problem, we propose a two-step procedure. First, a global test using all explanatory variables is carried out. If, and only if, the global test is significant, one can proceed with forward selection. To prevent overestimation of the explained variance, the forward selection has to be carried out with two stopping criteria: (1) the usual alpha significance level and (2) the adjusted coefficient of multiple determination ($R_{a}^{2}$) calculated using all explanatory variables. When forward selection identifies a variable that brings one or the other criterion over the fixed threshold, that variable is rejected, and the procedure is stopped. This improved method is validated by simulations involving univariate and multivariate response data. An ecological example is presented using data from the Bryce Canyon National Park, Utah, USA.

Weather and land use can significantly impact mosquito abundance and presence, and by consequence, mosquito-borne disease (MBD) dynamics. Knowledge of vector ecology and mosquito species response to these drivers will help us better predict risk from MBD. In this study, we evaluated and compared the independent and combined effects of weather and land use on mosquito species occurrence and abundance in Eastern Ontario, Canada. Data on occurrence and abundance (245,591 individuals) of 30 mosquito species were obtained from mosquito capture at 85 field sites in 2017 and 2018. Environmental variables were extracted from weather and land use datasets in a 1-km buffer around trapping sites. The relative importance of weather and land use on mosquito abundance (for common species) or occurrence (for all species) was evaluated using multivariate hierarchical statistical models. Models incorporating both weather and land use performed better than models that include weather only for approximately half of species (59% for occurrence model and 50% for abundance model). Mosquito occurrence was mainly associated with temperature whereas abundance was associated with precipitation and temperature combined. Land use was more often associated with abundance than occurrence. For most species, occurrence and abundance were positively associated with forest cover but for some there was a negative association. Occurrence and abundance of some species (47% for occurrence model and 88% for abundance model) were positively associated with wetlands, but negatively associated with urban ( Culiseta melanura and Anopheles walkeri ) and agriculture ( An . quadrimaculatus , Cs . minnesotae and An . walkeri ) environments. This study provides predictive relationships between weather, land use and mosquito occurrence and abundance for a wide range of species including those that are currently uncommon, yet known as arboviruses vectors. Elucidation of these relationships has the potential to contribute to better prediction of MBD risk, and thus more efficiently targeted prevention and control measures.

• Leaves interact with a wealth of microorganisms. Among these, fungi are highly diverse and are known to contribute to plant health, leaf senescence and early decomposition. However, patterns and drivers of the seasonal dynamics of foliar fungal communities are poorly understood. • We used a multifactorial experiment to investigate the influence of warming and tree genotype on the foliar fungal community on the pedunculate oak Quercus robur across one growing season. • Fungal species richness increased, evenness tended to decrease, and community composition strongly shifted during the growing season. Yeasts increased in relative abundance as the season progressed, while putative fungal pathogens decreased. Warming decreased species richness, reduced evenness and changed community composition, especially at the end of the growing season. Warming also negatively affected putative fungal pathogens. We only detected a minor imprint of tree genotype and warming × genotype interactions on species richness and community composition. • Overall, our findings demonstrate that warming plays a larger role than plant genotype in shaping the seasonal dynamics of the foliar fungal community on oak. These warming-induced shifts in the foliar fungal community may have a pronounced impact on plant health, plant–fungal interactions and ecosystem functions.

The three‐dimensional rarity typology proposed by Rabinowitz in 1981, based on geographic range, habitat specificity, and local abundance, is among the most widely used frameworks for describing rarity in ecological and conservation research. While this framework is descriptive and is not meant to explain the causes of rarity, recent advances in ecology may be leveraged to add explanatory power. Here we present a macroecological exploration of rarity and its underlying causes. We propose a modification of Rabinowitz's typology to better distinguish between the dimensions of rarity and the ecological processes that drive them, and explore the conservation implications of our modified framework. We propose to add occupancy (the proportion of occupied sites within a species' range) as a rarity axis, and recast habitat specificity as a cause of rarity, thus yielding a modified classification based on range size, occupancy, and local abundance. Under our framework, habitat specialists are no longer considered rare if they are widespread and abundant; we argue that this modification more accurately identifies truly rare species, as habitat specialists may be common if their habitat is abundant. Finally, we draw on the macroecological and theoretical literature to identify the key processes and associated traits that drive each rarity axis. In this respect, we identify four processes (environmental filtering, movement, demography and interactions), and hypothesise that range size and occupancy are primarily driven by environmental filtering and movement, whereas local abundance is more strongly influenced by demography and interactions. We further use ecological theory to hypothesise the conservation concerns associated with each rarity axis, and propose conservation measures that may be suitable for conserving different types of rare species. Our work may provide a basis for developing hypotheses about the causes of rarity of particular focal taxa or groups, and inform the development of targeted conservation strategies.

© 2019 The Authors. Ecological Monographs published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Ecological Society of America This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi form diverse communities and are known to influence above-ground community dynamics and biodiversity. However, the multiscale patterns and drivers of AM fungal composition and diversity are still poorly understood. We sequenced DNA markers from roots and root-associated soil from Plantago lanceolata plants collected across multiple spatial scales to allow comparison of AM fungal communities among neighbouring plants, plant subpopulations, nearby plant populations, and regions. We also measured soil nutrients, temperature, humidity, and community composition of neighbouring plants and nonAM root-associated fungi. AM fungal communities were already highly dissimilar among neighbouring plants (c. 30 cm apart), albeit with a high variation in the degree of similarity at this small spatial scale. AM fungal communities were increasingly, and more consistently, dissimilar at larger spatial scales. Spatial structure and environmental drivers explained a similar percentage of the variation, from 7% to 25%. A large fraction of the variation remained unexplained, which may be a result of unmeasured environmental variables, species interactions and stochastic processes. We conclude that AM fungal communities are highly variable among nearby plants. AM fungi may therefore play a major role in maintaining small-scale variation in community dynamics and biodiversity.

Recently developing hierarchical community models (HCMs) accounting for incomplete sampling are promising approaches to understand community organization. However, pros and cons of incorporating incomplete sampling in the analysis and related design issues remain unknown. In this study, we compared HCM and canonical redundancy analysis (RDA) carried out with 10 different dissimilarity coefficients to evaluate how each approach restores true community abundance data sampled with imperfect detection. We conducted simulation experiments with varying numbers of sampling sites, visits, mean detectability and mean abundance. Performance of HCM was measured by estimates of “expected” (mean) abundance (λ̂ij) and realized abundance (N̂ij : direct estimate of site- and species-specific abundance). We also compared HCM and different types of RDA (normal, partial, and weighted), all performed with the same ten different dissimilarity coefficients, with unequal number of visits to sampling sites. In addition, we applied the models to a virtual survey carried out on the Barro Colorado Island tree plot data for which we know true community abundance. Simulation experiments showed that N̂ij yielded by HCM best restored the underlying abundance of constituent species among 12 abundance estimates by HCM and RDA regardless if the sampling was equal or unequal. Mean abundance predominantly affected the performance of HCM and RDA while λ̂ij yielded by HCM had comparable performance to percentage difference and Gower dissimilarity coefficients of RDA. Relative performance of RDA types depended on the combination of dissimilarity coefficients and the distribution of sampling effort. Best performance of N̂ij followed by λ̂ij, percentage difference and Gower dissimilarity were also observed for the analysis of tree plot data, and graphical plots (triplots) based on λ̂ij rather than N̂ij clearly separated the effects of two environmental covariates on the abundance of constituent species. Under our conditions of model evaluation and the method, we concluded that, in terms of assessing the environmental dependence of abundance, HCMs and RDA can have comparable performance if we can choose appropriate dissimilarity coefficients for RDA. However, since HCMs provide straightforward biological interpretations of parameter estimates and flexibility of the analysis, HCMs would be useful in many situations as well as conventional canonical ordinations.

The integration of ecosystem processes over large spatial extents is critical to predicting whether and how local and global changes may impact biodiversity and ecosystem functions. Yet, there remains an important gap in meta‐ecosystem models to predict multiple functions (e.g. carbon sequestration, elemental cycling, trophic efficiency) across ecosystem types (e.g. terrestrial‐aquatic, benthic‐pelagic). We derive a flexible meta‐ecosystem model to predict ecosystem functions at landscape extents by integrating the spatial dimension of natural systems as spatial networks of different habitat types connected by cross‐ecosystem flows of materials and organisms. We partition the physical connectedness of ecosystems from the spatial flow rates of materials and organisms, allowing the representation of all types of connectivity across ecosystem boundaries. Through simulating a forest‐lake‐stream meta‐ecosystem, our model illustrates that even if spatial flows induced significant local losses of nutrients, differences in local ecosystem efficiencies could lead to increased secondary production at regional scale. This emergent result, which we dub the ‘cross‐ecosystem efficiency hypothesis', emphasizes the importance of integrating ecosystem diversity and complementarity in meta‐ecosystem models to generate empirically testable hypotheses for ecosystem functions.

Surveying ecological communities often means the tedious work of collecting detailed information on each species within each sampling unit (e.g. trap, transect, quadrat). In this paper, we first argue that presence–absence and abundance data are the two extremes of a spectrum of data formats. By counting individuals of each species within a sampling unit until either a predefined (user-defined) number of individuals is reached or all individuals of the species are counted, all intermediate cases can be generated. By independently correlating each intermediate case with the complete abundance data, we show that it is not necessary to count all individuals to recover the patterns of variation characterizing a community data table. When the same procedure is applied in combination with different distance coefficients such as the Hellinger, chord, χ2, percentage difference or modified Gower, or the distance between species profiles, an even lower number of individuals per species need to be counted within a sampling unit for the patterns of variation defining a community to be recovered. By applying the same counting procedure to data collected during a pilot study, we show that the maximum number of individuals that need to be counted within a sampling unit for a species can be estimated from a pilot study containing as little as 3% of randomly selected sampling units throughout the complete survey area. An example of how to apply this new counting method is presented, using data from a boreal forest Carabidae community sampled in northwestern Alberta, Canada.

A fundamental goal of ecology is to understand the determinants of species' distributions (i.e., the set of locations where a species is present). Competition among species (i.e., interactions among species that harms each of the species involved) is common in nature and it would be tremendously useful to quantify its effects on species' distributions. An approach to studying the large-scale effects of competition or other biotic interactions is to fit species' distributions models (SDMs) and assess the effect of competitors on the distribution and abundance of the species of interest. It is often difficult to validate the accuracy of this approach with available data. Here, we simulate virtual species that experience competition. In these simulated datasets, we can unambiguously identify the effects that competition has on a species' distribution. We then fit SDMs to the simulated datasets and test whether we can use the outputs of the SDMs to infer the true effect of competition in each simulated dataset. In our simulations, the abiotic environment influenced the effects of competition. Thus, our SDMs often inferred that the abiotic environment was a strong predictor of species abundance, even when the species' distribution was strongly affected by competition. The severity of this problem depended on whether the competitor excluded the focal species from highly suitable sites or marginally suitable sites. Our results highlight how correlations between biotic interactions and the abiotic environment make it difficult to infer the effects of competition using SDMs.