Explore the vast range of titles available.

Covert rewilding is the secret and illegal translocation of species in the pursuit of conservation objectives. Recent history contains multiple covert rewilding events, frequently occurring after official permission was denied. In order to better understand the phenomenon, I formulate covert rewilding as an optimisation problem, with the goal of creating a population that is too large to be eradicated once it is detected. I then consider a hypothetical covert rewilding of Tasmanian devils Sarcophilus harrisii to the Australian mainland. Three different release locations would allow a covert devil population to remain undetected for years, by which time its size and distribution may preclude eradication. Optimal release locations also represent optimal locations for official surveillance, but a more effective approach to halting covert rewilding could be a more permissive stance towards legal rewilding.

The age or size structure of a population has a marked influence on its demography and reproductive capacity. While declines in coral cover are well documented, concomitant shifts in the size-frequency distribution of coral colonies are rarely measured at large spatial scales. Here, we document major shifts in the colony size structure of coral populations along the 2300 km length of the Great Barrier Reef relative to historical baselines (1995/1996). Coral colony abundances on reef crests and slopes have declined sharply across all colony size classes and in all coral taxa compared to historical baselines. Declines were particularly pronounced in the northern and central regions of the Great Barrier Reef, following mass coral bleaching in 2016 and 2017. The relative abundances of large colonies remained relatively stable, but this apparent stability masks steep declines in absolute abundance. The potential for recovery of older fecund corals is uncertain given the increasing frequency and intensity of disturbance events. The systematic decline in smaller colonies across regions, habitats and taxa, suggests that a decline in recruitment has further eroded the recovery potential and resilience of coral populations.

Introduced species threaten native biodiversity, but whether exotic species can competitively displace native species remains contested. Building on theory that predicts multi-species coexistence based on a competition-colonisation tradeoff, we derive a mechanistic basis by which human-mediated species invasions could cause extinctions through competitive displacement. In contrast to past invasions, humans principally introduce modern invaders, repeatedly and in large quantities, and in ways that can facilitate release from enemies and competitors. Associated increases in exotic species’ propagule rain, survival and competitive ability could enable some introduced species to overcome the tradeoffs that constrain all other species. Using evidence from metacommunity models, we show how species introductions could disrupt species coexistence, generating extinction debts, especially when combined with other forms of anthropogenic environmental change. Even though competing species have typically coexisted following past biogeographic migrations, the multiplicity and interactive impacts of today’s threats could change some exotic species into agents of extinction. Introduced species may displace ecologically similar native species, but mechanisms are still to be established. Here, Catford et al. provide theoretical evidence of how human-mediated species invasions may overcome competition-colonisation tradeoffs, leading to the local extinction of native species.

Conservation outcomes are principally achieved through the protection of intact habitat or the restoration of degraded habitat. Restoration is generally considered a lower priority action than protection because protection is thought to provide superior outcomes, at lower costs, without the time delay required for restoration. Yet while it is broadly accepted that protected intact habitat safeguards more biodiversity and generates greater ecosystem services per unit area than restored habitat, conservation lacks a theory that can coherently compare the relative outcomes of the two actions. We use a dynamic landscape model to integrate these two actions into a unified conservation theory of protection and restoration. Using nonlinear benefit functions, we show that both actions are crucial components of a conservation strategy that seeks to optimise either biodiversity conservation or ecosystem services provision. In contrast to conservation orthodoxy, in some circumstances, restoration should be strongly preferred to protection. The relative priority of protection and restoration depends on their costs and also on the different time lags that are inherent to both protection and restoration. We derive a simple and easy-to-interpret heuristic that integrates these factors into a single equation that applies equally to biodiversity conservation and ecosystem service objectives. We use two examples to illustrate the theory: bird conservation in tropical rainforests and coastal defence provided by mangrove forests.

Outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish Acanthaster planci (COTS), a disruptive coral-eating predator, are responsible for almost half of total coral cover loss on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef. As the pressures of climate change continue to intensify the frequency and severity of disturbance events such as cyclones and coral bleaching, efficiently managing COTS outbreaks is essential for reef protection. We aim to understand how the spatial distribution and intensity of crown-of-thorns starfish control – specifically manual culling of COTS by human divers – can impact coral cover on the GBR. We construct a metapopulation model based on a predator-prey model with larval dispersal and removal of crown-of-thorns starfish to simulate and compare spatial control strategies. When outbreaks begin on reefs between Cairns and Cooktown, we found the best strategy is to target those reefs at the source of the COTS outbreak. Increasing the spatial spread of control results in a larger spatial area protected across the GBR, but a lower total coral cover on the GBR. Our findings suggest that carefully targeting future control by considering larval connectivity patterns and spatial control strategies could lead to more efficient crown-of-thorns management. With the increasing pressures of climate change, any efficiency gains in reef management will prove beneficial for the Great Barrier Reef.

Background The most common complication of alcohol septal ablation (ASA) is transient periprocedural high-grade AV block (HGAVB). To date, no long-term follow-up of cardiovascular implantable electronic device (CIED) utilization after ASA has been reported. We hypothesized that CIED dependence on long-term follow-up can be predicted by ECG or procedural characteristics. Methods We analyzed all patients with HCM who underwent ASA from December 1998 to December 2019 and received their first CIED within 30 days after ASA for HGAVB. All follow-up interrogations were reviewed. CIED dependence was defined as ventricular pacing of ≥ 5%. Results A total of 138 patients with HCM underwent ASA. Of these, 35 had a prior device and were excluded. Of the remaining 103 patients, 25 patients received a CIED for HGAVB within 30 days after ASA. Average follow-up duration was 10.1 years. On long-term follow-up, 16 patients (64%) were found to be CIED-dependent. Baseline characteristics, including pre- and post-ASA ECG, were not significantly different between dependent and non-dependent patients. The only predictor for CIED dependence was > 1 ml of alcohol injected (OR 6.0, p  = 0.031). Conclusions CIED implantation after ASA is common. Almost two thirds of patients who received a CIED for post-procedural HGAVB were CIED-dependent on long-term follow-up. CIED dependence can be predicted by the amount of injected alcohol > 1 ml. Graphical Abstract

Species and ecosystems usually face more than one threat. The damage caused by these multiple threats can accumulate nonlinearly: either subadditively, when the joint damage of combined threats is less than the damages of both threats individually added together, or superadditively, when the joint damage is greater than the two individual damages added together. These additivity dynamics are commonly attributed to the nature of the threatening processes, but conflicting empirical observations challenge this assumption. Here, we use a theoretical model to demonstrate that the additivity of threats can change with different magnitudes of threat impacts (effect of a threat on the population parameter, like growth rate). We use a harvested single-species population model to integrate the effects of multiple threats on equilibrium abundance. Our results reveal that threats do not always display consistent additive behavior, even in simple systems. Instead, their additivity depends on the magnitudes of the impacts of two threats, and the population parameter that is impacted by each threat. In our model specifically, when multiple threats have a low impact on the growth rate of a population, they display superadditive dynamics. In contrast, threats that impact the species' carrying capacity are always additive or subadditive. These dynamics can be understood by reference to the curvature of the relationship between a given population parameter (e.g., growth) and equilibrium population size. Our results suggest that management actions can achieve amplified benefits if they target low-amplitude threats that affect the growth rate, since these will be in a superadditive phase. More generally, our results suggest that cumulative impact theory should focus more than previously on the magnitude of the impact on the population parameter, and should be cautious about attributing additive dynamics to particular threat combinations.

Introducing a new or extirpated species to an ecosystem is risky, and managers need quantitative methods that can predict the consequences for the recipient ecosystem. Proponents of keystone predator reintroductions commonly argue that the presence of the predator will restore ecosystem function, but this has not always been the case, and mathematical modeling has an important role to play in predicting how reintroductions will likely play out. We devised an ensemble modeling method that integrates species interaction networks and dynamic community simulations and used it to describe the range of plausible consequences of 2 keystone-predator reintroductions: wolves (Cams lupus) to Yellowstone National Park and dingoes (Canis dingo) to a national park in Australia. Although previous methods for predicting ecosystem responses to such interventions focused on predicting changes around a given equilibrium, we used Lotka-Volterra equations to predict changing abundances through time. We applied our method to interaction networks for wolves in Yellowstone National Park and for dingoes in Australia. Our model replicated the observed dynamics in Yellowstone National Park and produced a larger range of potential outcomes for the dingo network. However, we also found that changes in small vertebrates or invertebrates gave a good indication about the potential future state of the system. Our method allowed us to predict when the systems were far from equilibrium. Our results showed that the method can also be used to predict which species may increase or decrease following a reintroduction and can identify species that are important to monitor (i.e., species whose changes in abundance give extra insight into broad changes in the system). Ensemble ecosystem modeling can also be applied to assess the ecosystem-wide implications of other types of interventions including assisted migration, biocontrol, and invasive species eradication. Introducir una especie nueva o extirpada a un ecosistema es un riesgo y los administradores necesitan métodos cuantitativos que puedan predecir las consecuencias para el ecosistema receptor. Quienes proponen reintroducciones de depredadores clave comúnmente argumentan que la presencia del depredador restaurará la función ambiental, pero esto no siempre ha sido el caso y el modelado matemático tiene un papel importante que desempeñar en la predicción de cómo es probable que terminen las reintroducciones. Concebimos un método de modelado en conjunto que integra las redes de interacción de las especies y las simulaciones de dinámicas de comunidad y lo utilizamos para describir la extensión de las consecuencias posibles de la reintroducción de dos depredadores clave: lobos (Canis lupus) al Parque Nacional Yellowstone y dingos (Canis dingo) a un parque nacional en Australia. Mientras que los métodos previos para predecir las respuestas de los ecosistemas a dichas intervenciones se enfocaron en predecir los cambios en torno a un equilibrio dado, nosotros utilizamos las ecuaciones Lotka-Volterra para predecir las abundancias cambiantes a través del tiempo. Aplicamos nuestro método a las redes de interacción de los lobos en el Parque Nacional Yellowstone y a los dingos en Australia. Nuestro modelo replicó las dinámicas observadas en el Parque Nacional Yellowstone y produjo una extensión más grande de resultados potenciales para la red de los dingos. Sin embargo, también encontramos que los cambios en los pequeños vertebrados e invertebrados dieron una buena indicación sobre el posible estado futuro del sistema. Nuestro método nos permitió predecir cuándo los sistemas estaban lejos del equilibrio. Nuestros resultados mostraron que el método también puede utilizarse para predecir cuáles especies pueden incrementar o disminuir después de una reintroducción y puede identificar a las especies que son importantes de monitorear (es decir, las especies cuyos cambios en la abundancia dan información extra de los cambios generales en el sistema). El modelado de ecosistemas en conjunto también puede aplicarse para valorar las implicaciones en todo el ecosistema de otras intervenciones, incluyendo la migración asistida, el bio-controly la erradicación de especies invasoras.

Larval dispersal is a critically important yet enigmatic process in marine ecology, evolution, and conservation. Determining the distance and direction that tiny larvae travel in the open ocean continues to be a challenge. Our current understanding of larval dispersal patterns at management-relevant scales is principally and separately informed by genetic parentage data and biological-oceanographic (biophysical) models. Parentage datasets provide clear evidence of individual larval dispersal events, but their findings are spatially and temporally limited. Biophysical models offer a more complete picture of dispersal patterns at regional scales but are of uncertain accuracy. Here, we develop statistical techniques that integrate these two important sources of information on larval dispersal. We then apply these methods to an extensive genetic parentage dataset to successfully validate a high-resolution biophysical model for the economically important reef fish species Plectropomus maculatus in the southern Great Barrier Reef. Our results demonstrate that biophysical models can provide accurate descriptions of larval dispersal at spatial and temporal scales that are relevant to management. They also show that genetic parentage datasets provide enough statistical power to exclude poor biophysical models. Biophysical models that included species-specific larval behaviour provided markedly better fits to the parentage data than assuming passive behaviour, but incorrect behavioural assumptions led to worse predictions than ignoring behaviour altogether. Our approach capitalises on the complementary strengths of genetic parentage datasets and high-resolution biophysical models to produce an accurate picture of larval dispersal patterns at regional scales. The results provide essential empirical support for the use of accurately parameterised biophysical larval dispersal models in marine spatial planning and management.

NRC publication: Yes