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Neutropenia increases the risk of infection, but it is unknown if this also applies to lymphopenia. We therefore tested the hypotheses that lymphopenia is associated with increased risk of infection and infection-related death in the general population. Of the invited 220,424 individuals, 99,191 attended examination. We analyzed 98,344 individuals from the Copenhagen General Population Study (Denmark), examined from November 25, 2003, to July 9, 2013, and with available blood lymphocyte count at date of examination. During a median of 6 years of follow-up, they developed 8,401 infections and experienced 1,045 infection-related deaths. Due to the completeness of the Danish civil and health registries, none of the 98,344 individuals were lost to follow-up, and those emigrating (n = 385) or dying (n = 5,636) had their follow-up truncated at the day of emigration or death. At date of examination, mean age was 58 years, and 44,181 (44.9%) were men. Individuals with lymphopenia (lymphocyte count < 1.1 × 109/l, n = 2,352) compared to those with lymphocytes in the reference range (1.1-3.7 × 109/l, n = 93,538) had multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios of 1.41 (95% CI 1.28-1.56) for any infection, 1.31 (1.14-1.52) for pneumonia, 1.44 (1.15-1.79) for skin infection, 1.26 (1.02-1.56) for urinary tract infection, 1.51 (1.21-1.89) for sepsis, 1.38 (1.01-1.88) for diarrheal disease, 2.15 (1.16-3.98) for endocarditis, and 2.26 (1.21-4.24) for other infections. The corresponding hazard ratio for infection-related death was 1.70 (95% CI 1.37-2.10). Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, smoking status, cumulative smoking, alcohol intake, body mass index, plasma C-reactive protein, blood neutrophil count, recent infection, Charlson comorbidity index, autoimmune diseases, medication use, and immunodeficiency/hematologic disease. The findings were robust in all stratified analyses and also when including only events later than 2 years after first examination. However, due to the observational design, the study cannot address questions of causality, and our analyses might theoretically have been affected by residual confounding and reverse causation. In principle, fluctuating lymphocyte counts over time might also have influenced analyses, but lymphocyte counts in 5,181 individuals measured 10 years after first examination showed a regression dilution ratio of 0.68. Lymphopenia was associated with increased risk of hospitalization with infection and increased risk of infection-related death in the general population. Notably, causality cannot be deduced from our data.

Cross-sectional studies have associated short telomere length with smoking, body weight, physical activity, and possibly alcohol intake; however, whether these associations are due to confounding is unknown. We tested these hypotheses in 4,576 individuals from the general population cross-sectionally, and with repeat measurement of relative telomere length 10 years apart. We also tested whether change in telomere length is associated with mortality and morbidity in the general population. Relative telomere length was measured with quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Cross-sectionally at the first examination, short telomere length was associated with increased age (P for trend across quartiles = 3 × 10(-77)), current smoking (P = 8 × 10(-3)), increased body mass index (P = 7 × 10(-14)), physical inactivity (P = 4 × 10(-17)), but not with increased alcohol intake (P = 0.10). At the second examination 10 years later, 56% of participants had lost and 44% gained telomere length with a mean loss of 193 basepairs. Change in leukocyte telomere length during 10 years was associated inversely with baseline telomere length (P<1 × 10(-300)) and age at baseline (P = 1 × 10(-27)), but not with baseline or 10-year inter-observational tobacco consumption, body weight, physical activity, or alcohol intake. Prospectively during a further 10 years follow-up after the second examination, quartiles of telomere length change did not associate with risk of all-cause mortality, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes mellitus, ischemic cerebrovascular disease, or ischemic heart disease. In conclusion, smoking, increased body weight, and physical inactivity were associated with short telomere length cross-sectionally, but not with telomere length change during 10 years observation, and alcohol intake was associated with neither. Also, change in telomere length did not associate prospectively with mortality or morbidity in the general population.

Vitamin D deficiency has been implicated in decreased insulin secretion and increased insulin resistance, hallmarks of type 2 diabetes mellitus. We tested the hypothesis that low plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] is associated with increased risk of type 2 diabetes in the general population. We measured 25(OH)D in 9841 participants from the general population, of whom 810 developed type 2 diabetes during 29 years of follow-up. Analyses were adjusted for sex, age, smoking status, body mass index, income, physical activity, HDL cholesterol, and calendar month of blood draw. Lower 25(OH)D concentrations, by clinical categories or seasonally adjusted quartiles, were associated with higher cumulative incidence of type 2 diabetes (trend, P = 2×10(-7) and P = 4×10(-10)). Multivariable adjusted hazard ratios of type 2 diabetes were 1.22 (95% CI 0.85-1.74) for 25(OH)D <5 vs ≥20 μg/L and 1.35 (1.09-1.66) for lowest vs highest quartile. Also, the multivariable adjusted hazard ratio of type 2 diabetes for a 50% lower concentration of 25(OH)D was 1.12 (1.03-1.21); the corresponding hazard ratio for those ≤58 years old was 1.26 (1.15-1.41). Finally, in a metaanalysis of 16 studies, the odds ratio for type 2 diabetes was 1.50 (1.33-1.70) for the bottom vs top quartile of 25(OH)D. We observed an association of low plasma 25(OH)D with increased risk of type 2 diabetes. This finding was substantiated in a metaanalysis.

In a population-based Danish registry study, statin use before a cancer diagnosis reduced cancer-related mortality by 15% across a broad range of cancers. Cholesterol is a fundamental structural component of mammalian cell membranes and is essential for cellular proliferation. 1 , 2 Statins inhibit the production of endogenous cholesterol 3 and block protein prenylation, and statin use may therefore influence cell proliferation and migration. 4 , 5 Cancer-cell proliferation is seen clinically as cancer growth and metastasis, and it ultimately results in the death of the patient. A reduction in the availability of cholesterol could lead to decreased proliferation and migration of cancer cells. 6 , 7 Also, a reduction in the downstream products in the mevalonate pathway due to statin use has been associated with several potential anticancer properties . . .

Rationale and objectivesSelf-reported smoking underestimates disease risk. Smoking affects DNA methylation, in particular the cg05575921 site in the aryl hydrocarbon receptor repressor (AHRR) gene. We tested the hypothesis that AHRR cg05575921 hypomethylation is associated with risk of smoking-related morbidity and mortality.MethodsFrom the Copenhagen City Heart Study representing the Danish general population, we studied 9234 individuals. Using bisulphite treated leucocyte DNA, AHRR (cg05575921) methylation was measured. Rs1051730 (CHRN3A) genotype was used to evaluate smoking heaviness. Participants were followed for up to 22 years for exacerbations of COPD, event of lung cancer and all-cause mortality. Six-year lung cancer risk was calculated according to the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCOM2012).Measurements and main resultsAHRR (cg05575921) hypomethylation was associated with former and current smoking status, high daily and cumulative smoking, short time since smoking cessation (all p values <7×10–31), and the smoking-related CHRN3A genotype (−0.48% per T-allele, p=0.002). The multifactorially adjusted HRs for the lowest versus highest methylation quintiles were 4.58 (95% CI 2.83 to 7.42) for COPD exacerbations, 4.87 (2.31 to 10.3) for lung cancer and 1.67 (1.48 to 1.88) for all-cause mortality. Finally, among 2576 high-risk smokers eligible for lung cancer screening by CT, observed cumulative incidences of lung cancer after 6 years for individuals in the lowest and highest methylation quintiles were 3.7% and 0.0% (p=2×10–7), whereas predicted PLCOM2012 6-year risks were similar (4.3% and 4.4%, p=0.77).ConclusionAHRR (cg05575921) hypomethylation, a marker of smoking behaviour, provides potentially clinical relevant predictions of future smoking-related morbidity and mortality.

Objective To test the hypothesis that genetically low 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations are associated with increased mortality. Design Mendelian randomisation analysis. Setting Copenhagen City Heart Study, Copenhagen General Population Study, and Copenhagen Ischemic Heart Disease Study. Participants 95 766 white participants of Danish descent from three cohorts, with median follow-up times of 19.1, 5.8, and 7.9 years, genotyped for genetic variants in DHCR7 and CYP2R1 affecting plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations; 35 334 also had plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D measurements. Participants were followed from study entry through 2013, during which time 10 349 died. Main outcome measures All cause mortality and cause specific mortality, adjusted for common risk factors for all cause mortality based on the World Health Organization’s global health status. Results The multivariable adjusted hazard ratios for a 20 nmol/L lower plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration were 1.19 (95% confidence interval 1.14 to 1.25) for all cause mortality, 1.18 (1.09 to 1.28) for cardiovascular mortality, 1.12 (1.03 to 1.22) for cancer mortality, and 1.27 (1.15 to 1.40) for other mortality. Each increase in DHCR7/CYP2R1 allele score was associated with a 1.9 nmol/L lower plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration and with increased all cause, cancer, and other mortality but not with cardiovascular mortality. The odds ratio for a genetically determined 20 nmol/L lower plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration was 1.30 (1.05 to 1.61) for all cause mortality, with a corresponding observational multivariable adjusted odds ratio of 1.21 (1.11 to 1.31). Corresponding genetic and observational odds ratios were 0.77 (0.55 to 1.08) and 1.13 (1.03 to 1.24) for cardiovascular mortality, 1.43 (1.02 to 1.99) and 1.10 (1.02 to 1.19) for cancer mortality, and 1.44 (1.01 to 2.04) and 1.17 (1.06 to 1.29) for other mortality. The results were robust in sensitivity analyses. Conclusions Genetically low 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations were associated with increased all cause mortality, cancer mortality, and other mortality but not with increased cardiovascular mortality. These findings are compatible with the notion that genetically low 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations may be causally associated with cancer and other mortality but also suggest that the observational association with cardiovascular mortality could be the result of confounding.

Background Observational studies have investigated the association of risk factors with breast cancer prognosis. However, the results have been conflicting and it has been challenging to establish causality due to potential residual confounding. Using a Mendelian randomisation (MR) approach, we aimed to examine the potential causal association between breast cancer-specific survival and nine established risk factors for breast cancer: alcohol consumption, body mass index, height, physical activity, mammographic density, age at menarche or menopause, smoking, and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Methods We conducted a two-sample MR analysis on data from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC) and risk factor summary estimates from the GWAS Catalog. The BCAC data included 86,627 female patients of European ancestry with 7054 breast cancer-specific deaths during 15 years of follow-up. Of these, 59,378 were estrogen receptor (ER)-positive and 13,692 were ER-negative breast cancer patients. For the significant association, we used sensitivity analyses and a multivariable MR model. All risk factor associations were also examined in a model adjusted by other prognostic factors. Results Increased genetic liability to T2DM was significantly associated with worse breast cancer-specific survival (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.10, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.03–1.17, P value [ P ] = 0.003). There were no significant associations after multiple testing correction for any of the risk factors in the ER-status subtypes. For the reported significant association with T2DM, the sensitivity analyses did not show evidence for violation of the MR assumptions nor that the association was due to increased BMI. The association remained significant when adjusting by other prognostic factors. Conclusions This extensive MR analysis suggests that T2DM may be causally associated with worse breast cancer-specific survival and therefore that treating T2DM may improve prognosis.

Short telomeres are associated with aging and have been associated with a high risk of ischemic heart disease in observational studies; however, the latter association could be due to residual confounding and/or reverse causation. We wanted to test the hypothesis that short telomeres are associated with high risk of ischemic heart disease using a Mendelian randomization approach free of reverse causation and of most confounding. We genotyped 3 genetic variants in OBFC1 (oligonucleotide/oligosaccharide binding fold containing 1), TERT (telomerase reverse transcriptase), and TERC (telomerase RNA component), which code for proteins and RNA involved in telomere maintenance. We studied 105 055 individuals from Copenhagen; 17 235 of these individuals were diagnosed with ischemic heart disease between 1977 and 2013, and 66 618 had telomere length measured. For genetic studies, we further included the Coronary ARtery DIsease Genome wide Replication and Meta-analysis (CARDIoGRAM) consortium dataset, which included up to 184 967 participants and 60 837 cases of ischemic heart disease. We conducted multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazard models for observational estimates, using logistic and instrumental variable analysis for genetic estimates. Observationally, a 200-bp-shorter telomere length was associated with a multivariable adjusted hazard ratio for ischemic heart disease of 1.02 (95% CI, 1.01-1.03). Per allele, telomeres were shorter by 67 bp (73-60). In meta-analyses of all 4 studies combined, odds ratios for ischemic heart disease were 1.05 (1.03-1.08) for OBCF1, 1.04 (1.02-1.06) for TERT, and 1.01 (0.99-1.03) for TERC. A genetically determined 200-bp-shorter telomere length was associated with an odds ratio for ischemic heart disease of 1.10 (1.06-1.14). Shorter telomeres were associated with a higher risk of ischemic heart disease, both observationally and genetically.

Tobacco smoke chemicals may influence vitamin D metabolism and function, and conversely vitamin D may modify the carcinogenicity of tobacco smoke chemicals. We tested the hypothesis that lower plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] is associated with a higher risk of tobacco-related cancer in the general population. A prospective population-based cohort of 9791 individuals from the Copenhagen City Heart Study who were free of cancer at baseline was followed from 1981-1983 until December 2008 with 100% complete follow-up. During up to 28 years of follow-up, 1081 participants developed a tobacco-related cancer and 1506 developed other cancers. Decreasing 25(OH)D concentrations, subdivided by clinical categories or by seasonally adjusted percentile categories, were associated with increasing cumulative incidence of tobacco-related cancer (log-rank trend P = 2 × 10(-6) and P = 5 × 10(-9)). Multivariable adjusted hazard ratios of tobacco-related cancer were 1.75 (95% CI, 1.33-2.30) for 25(OH)D <5 vs ≥20 ng/mL, and 2.07 (1.63-2.62) for ≤5th vs >66th percentile. Also, multivariable adjusted hazard ratios for a 50% reduction in 25(OH)D were 1.20 (1.13-1.28) for any tobacco-related cancer, 1.19 (95% CI, 1.09-1.31) for lung cancer, 1.44 (1.19-1.73) for head and neck cancer, 1.28 (1.06-1.54) for bladder cancer, 1.34 (1.04-1.73) for kidney cancer, and 0.95 (0.89-1.01) for other cancers. Lower plasma 25(OH)D was associated with higher risk of tobacco-related cancers, but not with risk of other cancers.

Background A previous case–control study of 100 individuals found that short telomere length was associated with a 28-fold increased risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Objectives To test the hypothesis that short telomere length is associated with reduced lung function and an increased risk of COPD. Methods Observational study of 46 396 individuals from the Danish general population. Measurements Leucocyte telomere length and spirometry were measured. COPD was defined using either fixed forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1)/forced vital capacity (FVC) ratio <0.70 as suggested by the Global initiative for chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) or FEV1/FVC below the lower limit of normal (LLN). Results Telomere length decreased significantly with increasing age (p<10−300). FEV1, FVC and FEV1/FVC decreased with decreasing telomere length quartiles (p trend: 5×10−51, 5×10−35 and 6×10−137, respectively), but the associations attenuated after age and multivariable adjustment. The risk of COPD increased with decreasing telomere length quartile (p trend: p=7×10−92 for GOLD; p=8×10−44 for FEV1/FVC below LLN), but associations also attenuated after adjustment. Unadjusted and multivariable adjusted OR for shortest versus longest telomere length quartiles were 2.06 (95% CI 1.91 to 2.22) and 1.15 (95% CI 1.06 to 1.25) for GOLD and 1.73 (95% CI 1.60 to 1.88) and 1.19 (95% CI 1.09 to 1.30) for FEV1/FVC below LLN, respectively. Per 1000 base pairs decrease in telomere length, the multivariable adjusted OR was 1.07 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.10) for GOLD and 1.07 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.11) for FEV1/FVC below LLN. Conclusions Short telomere length is associated with decreased lung function and with increased risk of COPD, but the associations are markedly attenuated after adjustment. Our data support a modest correlation between telomere length and the lung function indices examined.