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The ongoing uptake of anthropogenic carbon by the ocean leads to ocean acidification, a process that results in a reduction in pH and in the saturation state of biogenic calcium carbonate minerals aragonite ( Ω arag ) and calcite ( Ω calc ) 1 , 2 . Because of its naturally low Ω arag and Ω calc (refs. 2 , 3 ), the Arctic Ocean is considered the region most susceptible to future acidification and associated ecosystem impacts 4 – 7 . However, the magnitude of projected twenty-first century acidification differs strongly across Earth system models 8 . Here we identify an emergent multi-model relationship between the simulated present-day density of Arctic Ocean surface waters, used as a proxy for Arctic deep-water formation, and projections of the anthropogenic carbon inventory and coincident acidification. By applying observations of sea surface density, we constrain the end of twenty-first century Arctic Ocean anthropogenic carbon inventory to 9.0 ± 1.6 petagrams of carbon and the basin-averaged Ω arag and Ω calc to 0.76 ± 0.06 and 1.19 ± 0.09, respectively, under the high-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate scenario. Our results indicate greater regional anthropogenic carbon storage and ocean acidification than previously projected 3 , 8 and increase the probability that large parts of the mesopelagic Arctic Ocean will be undersaturated with respect to calcite by the end of the century. This increased rate of Arctic Ocean acidification, combined with rapidly changing physical and biogeochemical Arctic conditions 9 – 11 , is likely to exacerbate the impact of climate change on vulnerable Arctic marine ecosystems. Sea surface density observations in the Arctic Ocean reveal a relationship between the present-day surface water density and the anthropogenic carbon inventory and coincident acidification, suggesting that recent acidification projections are underestimates.

Net primary production (NPP) is the foundation of the oceans’ ecosystems and the fisheries they support. In the Arctic Ocean, NPP is controlled by a complex interplay of light and nutrients supplied by upwelling as well as lateral inflows from adjacent oceans and land. But so far, the role of the input from land by rivers and coastal erosion has not been given much attention. Here, by upscaling observations from the six largest rivers and using measured coastal erosion rates, we construct a pan-Arctic, spatio-temporally resolved estimate of the land input of carbon and nutrients to the Arctic Ocean. Using an ocean-biogeochemical model, we estimate that this input fuels 28–51% of the current annual Arctic Ocean NPP. This strong enhancement of NPP is a consequence of efficient recycling of the land-derived nutrients on the vast Arctic shelves. Our results thus suggest that nutrient input from the land is a key process that will affect the future evolution of Arctic Ocean NPP. The Arctic Ocean is influenced by carbon and nutrients from rivers and erosion, but how this affects phytoplankton productivity is not understood. Here, the authors use a spatio-temporally resolved biogeochemical model to estimate that the input of carbon and nutrients fuels 28–51% of annual Arctic Ocean productivity.

Anthropogenic climate change is projected to lead to ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, reductions in near-surface nutrients, and changes to primary production, all of which are expected to affect marine ecosystems. Here we assess projections of these drivers of environmental change over the twenty-first century from Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) that were forced under the CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Projections are compared to those from the previous generation (CMIP5) forced under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). A total of 10 CMIP5 and 13 CMIP6 models are used in the two multi-model ensembles. Under the high-emission scenario SSP5-8.5, the multi-model global mean change (2080–2099 mean values relative to 1870–1899) ± the inter-model SD in sea surface temperature, surface pH, subsurface (100–600 m) oxygen concentration, euphotic (0–100 m) nitrate concentration, and depth-integrated primary production is +3.47±0.78 ∘C, -0.44±0.005, -13.27±5.28, -1.06±0.45 mmol m−3 and -2.99±9.11 %, respectively. Under the low-emission, high-mitigation scenario SSP1-2.6, the corresponding global changes are +1.42±0.32 ∘C, -0.16±0.002, -6.36±2.92, -0.52±0.23 mmol m−3, and -0.56±4.12 %. Projected exposure of the marine ecosystem to these drivers of ocean change depends largely on the extent of future emissions, consistent with previous studies. The ESMs in CMIP6 generally project greater warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and nitrate reductions but lesser primary production declines than those from CMIP5 under comparable radiative forcing. The increased projected ocean warming results from a general increase in the climate sensitivity of CMIP6 models relative to those of CMIP5. This enhanced warming increases upper-ocean stratification in CMIP6 projections, which contributes to greater reductions in upper-ocean nitrate and subsurface oxygen ventilation. The greater surface acidification in CMIP6 is primarily a consequence of the SSPs having higher associated atmospheric CO2 concentrations than their RCP analogues for the same radiative forcing. We find no consistent reduction in inter-model uncertainties, and even an increase in net primary production inter-model uncertainties in CMIP6, as compared to CMIP5.

Accurately representing the ocean carbon cycle in Earth System Models (ESMs) is essential to understanding the oceanic CO2 sink evolution under CO2 emissions and global warming. A key uncertainty arises from the ESM's inability to explicitly represent mesoscale eddies. To address this limitation, we conduct eddy‐resolving experiments of CO2 uptake under global warming in an idealized mid‐latitude ocean model. In comparison with similar experiments at coarser resolution, we show that the CO2 sink is 34% larger in the eddy‐resolving experiments. 80% of the increase stems from a more efficient anthropogenic CO2 uptake due to a stronger Meridional Overturning circulation (MOC). The remainder results from a weaker reduction in CO2 uptake associated to a weaker MOC decline under global warming. Although being only a fraction of the overall response to climate change, these results emphasize the importance of an accurate representation of small‐scale ocean processes to better constrain the CO2 sink. Plain Language Summary Today, the ocean absorbs ∼25% of the CO2 emissions caused by human activities. This CO2 sink is primarily driven by the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere, but it is also influenced by physical changes in the ocean's properties. Earth System Models are used to project the future of the ocean CO2 sink. Due to limited computational capacity, ESMs need to parameterize flows occurring at scales smaller than ∼100 km, their typical horizontal grid resolution. To overcome the computational limitations, we use an ocean biogeochemical model representing an idealized North Atlantic ocean of reduced dimensions. We conduct simulations of global warming using increasingly finer horizontal resolutions (from ∼100 km to ∼4 km). Our findings demonstrate that the ocean CO2 uptake is highly influenced by resolution. This sensitivity primarily stems from how the overturning circulation's mean state depends on resolution, as well as how it responds to global warming. Although our results capture only a fraction of the overall oceanic response to climate change, they emphasize the significance of accurately representing the role of small‐scale ocean processes to better constrain the future evolution of ocean carbon uptake. Key Points We conducted idealized ocean simulations under global warming and rising atmospheric CO2 at coarse and eddy‐resolving resolutions CO2 sink is larger by 34% at eddy resolution, due to larger anthropogenic CO2 uptake combined with weaker climate feedback This ensues from the model's overturning circulation sensitivity to resolution in both historical and future state

The availability of carbon from rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and of nitrogen from various human-induced inputs to ecosystems is continuously increasing; however, these increases are not paralleled by a similar increase in phosphorus inputs. The inexorable change in the stoichiometry of carbon and nitrogen relative to phosphorus has no equivalent in Earth’s history. Here we report the profound and yet uncertain consequences of the human imprint on the phosphorus cycle and nitrogen:phosphorus stoichiometry for the structure, functioning and diversity of terrestrial and aquatic organisms and ecosystems. A mass balance approach is used to show that limited phosphorus and nitrogen availability are likely to jointly reduce future carbon storage by natural ecosystems during this century. Further, if phosphorus fertilizers cannot be made increasingly accessible, the crop yields projections of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment imply an increase of the nutrient deficit in developing regions. Bioavailable nitrogen is increasing due to human activity, rapidly outpacing increases in another essential nutrient, phosphorous. Peñuelas et al. show that this increasing imbalance between these nutrients is likely to significantly affect life and limit carbon storage in this century.

This study introduces CNRM‐ESM2‐1, the Earth system (ES) model of second generation developed by CNRM‐CERFACS for the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). CNRM‐ESM2‐1 offers a higher model complexity than the Atmosphere‐Ocean General Circulation Model CNRM‐CM6‐1 by adding interactive ES components such as carbon cycle, aerosols, and atmospheric chemistry. As both models share the same code, physical parameterizations, and grid resolution, they offer a fully traceable framework to investigate how far the represented ES processes impact the model performance over present‐day, response to external forcing and future climate projections. Using a large variety of CMIP6 experiments, we show that represented ES processes impact more prominently the model response to external forcing than the model performance over present‐day. Both models display comparable performance at replicating modern observations although the mean climate of CNRM‐ESM2‐1 is slightly warmer than that of CNRM‐CM6‐1. This difference arises from land cover‐aerosol interactions where the use of different soil vegetation distributions between both models impacts the rate of dust emissions. This interaction results in a smaller aerosol burden in CNRM‐ESM2‐1 than in CNRM‐CM6‐1, leading to a different surface radiative budget and climate. Greater differences are found when comparing the model response to external forcing and future climate projections. Represented ES processes damp future warming by up to 10% in CNRM‐ESM2‐1 with respect to CNRM‐CM6‐1. The representation of land vegetation and the CO2‐water‐stomatal feedback between both models explain about 60% of this difference. The remainder is driven by other ES feedbacks such as the natural aerosol feedback. Key Points This study introduces CNRM‐ESM2‐1 and describes its set‐up for CMIP6 Represented Earth system processes further impact the model response to external forcing than the model performance over present‐day Represented Earth system processes damp future warming by up to 10%

This study presents the global climate model IPSL‐CM6A‐LR developed at Institut Pierre‐Simon Laplace (IPSL) to study natural climate variability and climate response to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). This article describes the different model components, their coupling, and the simulated climate in comparison to previous model versions. We focus here on the representation of the physical climate along with the main characteristics of the global carbon cycle. The model's climatology, as assessed from a range of metrics (related in particular to radiation, temperature, precipitation, and wind), is strongly improved in comparison to previous model versions. Although they are reduced, a number of known biases and shortcomings (e.g., double Intertropical Convergence Zone [ITCZ], frequency of midlatitude wintertime blockings, and El Niño–Southern Oscillation [ENSO] dynamics) persist. The equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response have both increased from the previous climate model IPSL‐CM5A‐LR used in CMIP5. A large ensemble of more than 30 members for the historical period (1850–2018) and a smaller ensemble for a range of emissions scenarios (until 2100 and 2300) are also presented and discussed. Plain Language Summary Climate models are unique tools to investigate the characteristics and behavior of the climate system. While climate models and their components are developed gradually over the years, the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) has been the opportunity for the Institut Pierre‐Simon Laplace to develop, test, and evaluate a new configuration of its climate model called IPSL‐CM6A‐LR. The characteristics and emerging properties of this new model are presented in this study. The model climatology, as assessed from a range of metrics, is strongly improved, although a number of biases common to many models do persist. The equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response have both increased from the previous climate model IPSL‐CM5A‐LR used in CMIP5. Key Points The IPSL‐CM6A‐LR model climatology is much improved over the previous version, although some systematic biases and shortcomings persist A long preindustrial control and a large number of historical and scenario simulations have been performed as part of CMIP6 The effective climate sensitivity of the IPSL model increases from 4.1 to 4.8 K between IPSL‐CM5A‐LR and IPSL‐CM6A‐LR

Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.Use of an enhanced suite of marine ecosystem models and Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) reveals greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass than previously projected under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios.

In combination with drastic emission reduction cuts, limiting global warming below 1.5 °C or 2 °C requires atmospheric carbon dioxide removal (CDR) of up to 16 GtCO 2 yr −1 by 2050. Among CDR solutions, ocean afforestation through macroalgae cultivation is considered promising due to high rates of productivity and environmental co-benefits. We modify a high-resolution ocean biogeochemical model to simulate the consumption of dissolved inorganic carbon and macronutrients by idealised macroalgal cultivation in Exclusive Economic Zones. Under imposed macroalgal production of 0.5 PgC yr −1 with no nutrient feedbacks, physicochemical processes are found to limit the enhancement in the ocean carbon sink to 0.39 PgC yr −1 (1.43 GtCO 2 yr −1 ), corresponding to CDR efficiency of 79%. Only 0.22 PgC yr −1 (56%) of this air–sea carbon flux occurs in the regions of macroalgae cultivation, posing potential issues for measurement, reporting, and verification. When additional macronutrient limitations and feedbacks are simulated, the realised macroalgal production rate drops to 0.37 PgC yr −1 and the enhancement in the air–sea carbon flux to 0.21 PgC yr −1 (0.79 GtCO yr −1 ), or 58% of the macroalgal net production. This decrease in CDR efficiency is a consequence of a deepening in the optimum depth of macroalgal production and a reduction in phytoplankton production due to reduced nitrate and phosphate availability. At regional scales, the decrease of phytoplankton productivity can even cause a net reduction in the oceanic carbon sink. Although additional modelling efforts are required, Eastern boundary upwelling systems and regions of the Northeast Pacific and the Southern Ocean are revealed as potentially promising locations for efficient macroalgae-based CDR. Despite the CDR potential of ocean afforestation, our simulations indicate potential negative impacts on marine food webs with reductions in phytoplankton primary production of up to −40 gC m −2 yr −1 in the eastern tropical Pacific.

The magnitude and evolution of parameters that characterize feedbacks in the coupled carbon–climate system are compared across nine Earth system models (ESMs). The analysis is based on results from biogeochemically, radiatively, and fully coupled simulations in which CO₂ increases at a rate of 1% yr−1. These simulations are part of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The CO₂ fluxes between the atmosphere and underlying land and ocean respond to changes in atmospheric CO₂ concentration and to changes in temperature and other climate variables. The carbon–concentration and carbon–climate feedback parameters characterize the response of the CO₂ flux between the atmosphere and the underlying surface to these changes. Feedback parameters are calculated using two different approaches. The two approaches are equivalent and either may be used to calculate the contribution of the feedback terms to diagnosed cumulative emissions. The contribution of carbon–concentration feedback to diagnosed cumulative emissions that are consistent with the 1% increasing CO₂ concentration scenario is about 4.5 times larger than the carbon–climate feedback. Differences in the modeled responses of the carbon budget to changes in CO₂ and temperature are seen to be 3–4 times larger for the land components compared to the ocean components of participating models. The feedback parameters depend on the state of the system as well the forcing scenario but nevertheless provide insight into the behavior of the coupled carbon–climate system and a useful common framework for comparing models.