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"Botkin, Matthew"
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Forecasting the Effects of Global Warming on Biodiversity
The demand for accurate forecasting of the effects of global warming on biodiversity is growing, but current methods for forecasting have limitations. In this article, we compare and discuss the different uses of four forecasting methods: (1) models that consider species individually, (2) niche-theory models that group species by habitat (more specifically, by environmental conditions under which a species can persist or does persist), (3) general circulation models and coupled ocean–atmosphere–biosphere models, and (4) species–area curve models that consider all species or large aggregates of species. After outlining the different uses and limitations of these methods, we make eight primary suggestions for improving forecasts. We find that greater use of the fossil record and of modern genetic studies would improve forecasting methods. We note a Quaternary conundrum: While current empirical and theoretical ecological results suggest that many species could be at risk from global warming, during the recent ice ages surprisingly few species became extinct. The potential resolution of this conundrum gives insights into the requirements for more accurate and reliable forecasting. Our eight suggestions also point to constructive synergies in the solution to the different problems.
Journal Article
Concerns of Newborn Blood Screening Advisory Committee Members Regarding Storage and Use of Residual Newborn Screening Blood Spots
Objectives. We assessed attitudes and opinions of members of newborn blood screening (NBS) advisory committees regarding the storage and secondary research use of residual specimens from NBS. Methods. We conducted focus groups in 2008 and 2009 with NBS advisory committees (4 focus groups; n = 39 participants) in the Mountain States region (i.e., AZ, CO, MT, NM, NV, TX, UT, and WY). Results. Participants identified several challenges to implementing policies for storage of and research on residual newborn blood specimens. Themes that emerged from the data were public health relevancy; improvement of parental knowledge; impact of enhanced parental involvement; concerns over ownership, privacy, and confidentiality; identification of secondary research uses; and role of advisory committees. Conclusions. Participants indicated that secondary uses of residual specimens entailed opportunities for improvements in NBS programs but also carried significant risks for their programs. Addressing concerns from stakeholders will be necessary for state-level adoption of national recommendations.
Journal Article
