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We determined how reproductive failure impacts the long-term profitability of beef cows in spring- and fall-calving herds. Simulation models were established to generate distributions of net present value, payback periods, and breakeven prices of calves when a dam fails to wean zero, one, or two calves over her life. Results indicate that giving a dam another calving opportunity after failing to wean a calf would likely result in her being unprofitable. A producer would be better off selling the open dam than giving her another chance to breed. This illustrates the value in selecting replacement heifers based on fertility.

Prevented planting payments reimburse crop producers for losses from not being able to plant. These payments provide critical protection to producers; however, these payments, which are determined using a nationwide, crop-specific coverage factor, have been questioned to induce moral hazard. Depending on the region and crop insurance coverage, payments from this provision exceed producers’ losses. This paper estimates the prevented planting coverage factor by coverage level and region that would equitably reimburse corn and soybean producers for their losses. We find the prevented planting coverage factor has significant variation across coverage levels and location within our study region. The prevented planting coverage factor was found to decline as the policy coverage level increases. The further north in the study region the higher the coverage factor, likely due to increased land rent expenses. The results provide a unique perspective of how these coverage factors would vary to equitably compensate producers for losses, which addresses the moral hazard concerns with prevented planting.

Winter cover crops can improve the soil’s moisture-holding capacity, reduce soil water evaporation, and mitigate water-induced soil erosion; however, economic studies show mixed results on cover crop impacts on profits. One way to potentially increase the profits from planting cover crops is to harvest the cover crop for hay. The objective of this study was to determine the profitability of planting and harvesting cover crops when planting corn (Zea mays) or soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) as a cash crop. We determined the difference in net returns among 15 cover crop species when planted before corn and soybeans. We then calculated the breakeven hay price if the cover crop was harvested. Data were collected from an experiment in Tennessee, from 2017 to 2019, at two locations. There was no difference in net returns across cover crop treatments for both corn and soybeans, thus indicating that planting a cover crop does not reduce profits. The breakeven prices for harvesting cover crops suggest that this system would not likely be profitable for corn but might be profitable if planting soybeans, depending on labor availability and local demand for hay.

We determined the value of soil test information for potassium (K) in upland cotton production using the linear response plateau (LRP) and linear response stochastic plateau (LRSP) functions. A stochastic dynamic programming model was used to determine the net present value to K fertilizer when optimal K was applied with knowledge about K carryover. Using carryover information for K application decisions increased net present value and helped maintain steady levels of soil K. The LRSP function fit the data better than the LRP, and the value of soil testing was $ 27 ha⁻¹ lower over ten years using the LRSP.

Core Ideas Investment into no‐till reduces risk.Risk averse producers prefer no‐till over tillage.Cover crops increased risk compared to no cover crops. Upland cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) fields have minimal amounts of soil surface crop residue after harvest, exposing soil and increasing the risk of erosion. This is especially challenging in the Mid‐South United States where cotton is commonly grown on soils naturally prone to soil erosion. Winter cover crops and no‐till planting are two practices that can mitigate soil erosion by increasing soil surface biomass, but there is uncertainty on how these practices impact producer profits and risk. The objective of this study was to determine the profitability and risk of winter cover crop (no cover crop, winter wheat [Triticum aestivum L.], and hairy vetch [Vicia villosa L.]) treatments and tillage (no‐till and till) treatments in cotton production. Simulation models were developed to generate net present value (NPV) distributions of investing into the long‐term use of cover crop and tillage systems. Data were collected from a 29‐yr cotton N fertilizer, tillage, and cover crop experiment in West Tennessee. Profit‐maximizing N rates and yields varied across cover crop and tillage combinations. Risk neutral, profit‐maximizing producers would prefer till planting and not planting a cover crop. Risk averse producers prefer no‐till planting with no cover crops. These results indicate that no‐till planting can reduce cotton producers’ exposure to risk. The NPV approach and the long‐term dataset provides unique insight into the economic benefits from investing into continuous cover crop and no‐till systems in cotton production.

In recent years, bioenergy has become a promising renewable energy source that can potentially reduce the greenhouse emissions and generate economic growth in rural areas. Gaining understanding and controlling biomass chemical composition contributes to an efficient biofuel generation. This paper presents a principal component analysis (PCA) that shows the influence and relevance of selected controllable factors over the chemical composition of switchgrass and, therefore, in the generation of biofuels. The study introduces the following factors: (1) storage days; (2) particle size; (3) wrap type; and (4) weight of the bale. Results show that all the aforementioned factors have an influence in the chemical composition. The number of days that bales have been stored was the most significant factor regarding changes in chemical components due to its effect over principal components 1 and 2 (PC1 and PC2, approximately 80% of the total variance). The storage days are followed by the particle size, the weight of the bale and the type of wrap utilized to enclose the bale. An increment in the number of days (from 75–150 days to 225 days) in storage decreases the percentage of carbohydrates by −1.03% while content of ash increases by 6.56%.

Farmers may be reluctant to adopt variable rate nitrogen (VRN) management because of uncertain profits. This study assessed field landscape, soil, and weather effects on optical sensing (OS)-based VRN on cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) N rates, yields, and net returns (NRs). Field data were collected from 21 locations in Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee, USA, between 2011 and 2014. Data included yields, N rates, and NRs for the farmer practice (FP), OS-based VRN, and OS-based VRN supplemented with other information. Production data were augmented with landscape, soils, and weather data, and ANOVA and logistic regressions were used to identify field conditions where VRN was profitable, provided risk management benefits, and improved N efficiency. Key findings indicate that NRs were improved with VRN by applying additional N on more erodible soils. Higher organic matter soils also benefited from VRN through enhanced yields and NRs. VRN may also have provided risk management benefits by providing a lower probability of NRs below NRs for the FP on soils associated with greater water-holding capacity, higher organic matter levels, or deeper profiles. Results from this study may help identify farm fields with similar characteristics for adoption of VRN management.

PurposeLivestock Risk Protection (LRP) insurance can reduce losses from price declines for cattle producers, but LRP adoptions has been limited. In 2019 and 2020, LRP subsidies were increased to lower the cost, but it is unclear how much these changes lowered the cost. The objective of this research was to estimate the impact of the subsidy increase on the cost of LRP for feeder and fed cattle by month and for various insurance period lengths and levels.Design/methodology/approachThe authors collected United States LRP offering data from 2017 to 2021. The authors estimated separate generalized least squares regression for feeder cattle and fed cattle with producer premium as the dependent variable. Independent variables were dummy variables for coverage level, insurance period, month and year as well as dummy variables in commodity years 2019 and 2020 when the LRP subsidy was increased.FindingsThe authors found the subsidy increases did reduce the cost of LRP policies for feeder and fed cattle LRP policies. Producer premiums for feeder cattle LRP polices have declined between $1.41 to $1.90 per cwt and $0.95 to $1.56 per cwt for fed cattle LRP policies depending on the coverage level. Results indicate these subsidy increases did lower the LRP premium costs to producers.Originality/valueResults show policy implications from the subsidy increases and will be informative to producers when exploring the cost of LRP. This study extends the literature by estimating the reduction in subsidy costs while considering total premiums changed.

We simulated beef cattle producers' returns to shortening a 120-day calving season to 45 and 60 days by replacing late-calving cows for two herd sizes. We developed dynamic simulation models to consider production and price risk. We explored outcomes from annually replacing 10% or 20% of the late-calving cows to reach the desired calving-season length. The optimal scenario depends on herd size and whether the producer wants to maximize profits or certainty equivalent. The smaller herd benefited more from shortening calving season relative to the large herd.

Beef cattle production in the southeastern United States is forage‐based, relying primarily on tall fescue (Schedonorus arundinaceus [Schreb.] Dumort; TF). While TF has many desirable characteristics for forage, physiological traits can create forage management challenges for producers during the summer. Managing forage production is necessary for producers to maximize profits and reduce feed costs. A possible way to extend grazing in this region is to use warm‐season grasses (WSGs) during summer to complement tall fescue. Therefore, the objective of this study is to compare the profitability and risk associated with grazing beef stocker cattle on five WSGs: a combination of big bluestem (Andropogon gerardi Vitman) and indiangrass (Sorghastrum nutans L.; BI), switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.; SG), eastern gamagrass, (Tripsacum dactyloides; EG), bermudagrass (Cynodon dactylon L.; BG), and crabgrass (Digitaria sanguinalis; CG). Data comes from a 3‐yr (2014–2016) grazing experiment at two locations in Tennessee. The results show that CG had the lowest expected net returns to grazing due to its high production cost, and a profit‐maximizing and risk averse producer would select grazing SG relative to the other forages. The study extends the literature by comparing the profitability and risk of native WSGs (BI, SG, EG), traditional WSG (BG), and annual WSG (CG). Furthermore, these results will be important in educating southeastern US beef cattle producers on using WSGs.