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Accurate statistics are essential for policy guidance and decisions. However, the reported number of cases and COVID-19 deaths are known to be biased due to under-ascertainment of SARS-CoV-2 and incomplete reporting of deaths. Making use of death data from the National Population Register has made it possible to track in near-real time the number of excess deaths experienced in South Africa. These data reveal considerable provincial differences in the impact of COVID-19, likely associated with differences in population age structure and density, patterns of social mixing, and differences in the prevalence of known comorbidities such as diabetes, hypertension, and obesity. As the waves unfolded, levels of natural immunity together with vaccination began to reduce levels of mortality. Mortality rates during the second (Beta) wave were much higher than mortality in the third (Delta) wave, which were higher than in either the first or the fourth (Omicron) waves. However, the cumulative death toll during the second (Beta) wave was of a similar order of magnitude as that during the third (Delta) wave due to the longer duration of the Delta wave. Near-real time monitoring of all-cause deaths should be refined to provide more granular-level information to enable district-level policy support. In the meanwhile, there is an urgent need to re-engineer the civil registration and vital statistics system to enable more timely access to cause of death information for public health actions.

Since the 2009 Lancet Health in South Africa Series, important changes have occurred in the country, resulting in an increase in life expectancy to 60 years. Historical injustices together with the disastrous health policies of the previous administration are being transformed. The change in leadership of the Ministry of Health has been key, but new momentum is inhibited by stasis within the health management bureaucracy. Specific policy and programme changes are evident for all four of the so-called colliding epidemics: HIV and tuberculosis; chronic illness and mental health; injury and violence; and maternal, neonatal, and child health. South Africa now has the world's largest programme of antiretroviral therapy, and some advances have been made in implementation of new tuberculosis diagnostics and treatment scale-up and integration. HIV prevention has received increased attention. Child mortality has benefited from progress in addressing HIV. However, more attention to postnatal feeding support is needed. Many risk factors for non-communicable diseases have increased substantially during the past two decades, but an ambitious government policy to address lifestyle risks such as consumption of salt and alcohol provide real potential for change. Although mortality due to injuries seems to be decreasing, high levels of interpersonal violence and accidents persist. An integrated strategic framework for prevention of injury and violence is in progress but its successful implementation will need high-level commitment, support for evidence-led prevention interventions, investment in surveillance systems and research, and improved human-resources and management capacities. A radical system of national health insurance and re-engineering of primary health care will be phased in for 14 years to enable universal, equitable, and affordable health-care coverage. Finally, national consensus has been reached about seven priorities for health research with a commitment to increase the health research budget to 2·0% of national health spending. However, large racial differentials exist in social determinants of health, especially housing and sanitation for the poor and inequity between the sexes, although progress has been made in access to basic education, electricity, piped water, and social protection. Integration of the private and public sectors and of services for HIV, tuberculosis, and non-communicable diseases needs to improve, as do surveillance and information systems. Additionally, successful interventions need to be delivered widely. Transformation of the health system into a national institution that is based on equity and merit and is built on an effective human-resources system could still place South Africa on track to achieve Millennium Development Goals 4, 5, and 6 and would enhance the lives of its citizens.

To estimate the magnitude and characteristics of the injury burden in South Africa within a global context. The Actuarial Society of South Africa demographic and AIDS model (ASSA 2002) - calibrated to survey, census and adjusted vital registration data - was used to calculate the total number of deaths in 2000. Causes of death were determined from the National Injury Mortality Surveillance System profile. Injury death rates and years of life lost (YLL) were estimated using the Global Burden of Disease methodology. National years lived with disability (YLDs) were calculated by applying a ratio between YLLs and YLDs found in a local injury data source, the Cape Metropole Study. Mortality and disability-adjusted life years' (DALYs) rates were compared with African and global estimates. Interpersonal violence dominated the South African injury profile with age-standardized mortality rates at seven times the global rate. Injuries were the second-leading cause of loss of healthy life, accounting for 14.3% of all DALYs in South Africa in 2000. Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are the leading cause of injury in most regions of the world but South Africa has exceedingly high numbers - double the global rate. Injuries are an important public health issue in South Africa. Social and economic determinants of violence, many a legacy of apartheid policies, must be addressed to reduce inequalities in society and build community cohesion. Multisectoral interventions to reduce traffic injuries are also needed. We highlight this heavy burden to stress the need for effective prevention programmes.

Background Information-use is an integral component of a routine health information system and essential to influence policy-making, program actions and research. Despite an increased amount of routine data collected, planning and resource-allocation decisions made by health managers for managing HIV programs are often not based on data. This study investigated the use of information, and barriers to using routine data for monitoring the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (PMTCT) programs in two high HIV-prevalence districts in South Africa. Methods We undertook an observational study using a multi-method approach, including an inventory of facility records and reports. The performance of routine information systems management (PRISM) diagnostic ‘Use of Information’ tool was used to assess the PMTCT information system for evidence of data use in 57 health facilities in two districts. Twenty-two in-depth interviews were conducted with key informants to investigate barriers to information use in decision-making. Participants were purposively selected based on their positions and experience with either producing PMTCT data and/or using data for management purposes. We computed descriptive statistics and used a general inductive approach to analyze the qualitative data. Results Despite the availability of mechanisms and processes to facilitate information-use in about two-thirds of the facilities, evidence of information-use (i.e., indication of some form of information-use in available RHIS reports) was demonstrated in 53% of the facilities. Information was inadequately used at district and facility levels to inform decisions and planning, but was selectively used for reporting and monitoring program outputs at the provincial level. The inadequate use of information stemmed from organizational issues such as the lack of a culture of information-use, lack of trust in the data, and the inability of program and facility managers to analyze, interpret and use information. Conclusions Managers’ inability to use information implied that decisions for program implementation and improving service delivery were not always based on data. This lack of data use could influence the delivery of health care services negatively. Facility and program managers should be provided with opportunities for capacity development as well as practice-based, in-service training, and be supported to use information for planning, management and decision-making.

15 years after its first democratic election, South Africa is in the midst of a profound health transition that is characterised by a quadruple burden of communicable, non-communicable, perinatal and maternal, and injury-related disorders. Non-communicable diseases are emerging in both rural and urban areas, most prominently in poor people living in urban settings, and are resulting in increasing pressure on acute and chronic health-care services. Major factors include demographic change leading to a rise in the proportion of people older than 60 years, despite the negative effect of HIV/AIDS on life expectancy. The burden of these diseases will probably increase as the roll-out of antiretroviral therapy takes effect and reduces mortality from HIV/AIDS. The scale of the challenge posed by the combined and growing burden of HIV/AIDS and non-communicable diseases demands an extraordinary response that South Africa is well able to provide. Concerted action is needed to strengthen the district-based primary health-care system, to integrate the care of chronic diseases and management of risk factors, to develop a national surveillance system, and to apply interventions of proven cost-effectiveness in the primary and secondary prevention of such diseases within populations and health services. We urge the launching of a national initiative to establish sites of service excellence in urban and rural settings throughout South Africa to trial, assess, and implement integrated care interventions for chronic infectious and non-communicable diseases.

Ending AIDS by 2030 would depend on how successful health systems are in linking people living with HIV (PLHIV) into care. The World Health Organization recommended the ‘Universal Test and Treat’ (UTT) strategy – initiating all individuals testing positive on antiretroviral therapy (ART) irrespective of their CD4 count and clinical staging. This study aimed to explore the enablers and barriers to linkage to HIV care among adults with a new HIV diagnosis in a high-HIV prevalent rural district in South Africa. A qualitative study was undertaken to explore patients’ perceptions of enablers and barriers of linkage-to-care, using a life-story narration and dialogue approach. In-depth interviews were conducted with 38 HIV-positive participants sampled from a cohort of 1194 HIV-positive patients recruited from December 2017 to June 2018. Participants were selected based on whether they had been linked to care or not within 3 months of positive HIV diagnosis. Interviews were thematically analysed using a general inductive approach. Of the 38 participants, 22 (58%) linked to care within three months of HIV-positive diagnosis. Factors that facilitated or inhibited linkage-to-care were found at individual, family, community, as well as health systems levels. Enablers included a positive HIV testing experience, and assistance from the fieldwork team. Support from family, and friends, as well as prior community-based education about HIV and ART were also noted. Individual factors such as acceptance of HIV status, previous exposure to PLHIV, and fear of HIV progressing, were identified. Barriers to linkage included, denial of HIV status, dislike of taking pills, and preference for alternative medicine. Negative experiences with counselling and health systems inefficiency were also noted as barriers. Perceived stigma and socio-economic factors, such as lack of food or money to visit the clinic were other barriers. Community-based and health system-level interventions would need to focus on clinic readiness in providing patients with necessary and effective health services such as proper and adequate counselling. This could increase the number of patients who link to care. Finally, interventions to improve linkage-to-care should consider a holistic approach, including training healthcare providers, community outreach and the provision of psychological, social, and financial support.

Introduction Despite the numerous efforts and initiatives, males with HIV are still less likely than women to receive HIV treatment. Across Sub-Saharan Africa, men are tested, linked, and retained in HIV care at lower rates than women, and South Africa is no exception. This is despite the introduction of the universal test-and-treat (UTT) prevention strategy anticipated to improve the uptake of HIV services. The aim of this study was to investigate linkage to and retention in care rates of an HIV-positive cohort of men in a high HIV prevalence rural district in KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa. Methods From January 2018 to July 2019, we conducted an observational cohort study in 18 primary health care institutions in the uThukela district. Patient-level survey and clinical data were collected at baseline, 4-months and 12-months, using isiZulu and English REDCap-based questionnaires. We verified data through TIER.Net, Rapid mortality survey (RMS), and the National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) databases. Data were analyzed using STATA version 15.1, with confidence intervals and p -value of ≤0.05 considered statistically significant. Results The study sample consisted of 343 male participants diagnosed with HIV and who reside in uThukela District. The median age was 33 years (interquartile range (IQR): 29–40), and more than half (56%; n  = 193) were aged 18–34 years. Almost all participants (99.7%; n  = 342) were Black African, with 84.5% ( n  = 290) being in a romantic relationship. The majority of participants (85%; n  = 292) were linked to care within three months of follow-up. Short-term retention in care (≤ 12 months) was 46% ( n  = 132) among men who were linked to care within three months. Conclusion While the implementation of the UTT strategy has had positive influence on improving linkage to care, men’s access of HIV treatment remains inconsistent and may require additional innovative strategies.

To investigate injury-related mortality in South Africa using a nationally representative sample and compare the results with previous estimates. We conducted a retrospective descriptive study of medico-legal postmortem investigation data from mortuaries using a multistage random sample, stratified by urban and non-urban areas and mortuary size. We calculated age-specific and age-standardized mortality rates for external causes of death. Postmortem reports revealed 52,493 injury-related deaths in 2009 (95% confidence interval, CI: 46,930-58,057). Almost half (25,499) were intentionally inflicted. Age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 population were as follows: all injuries: 109.0 (95% CI: 97.1-121.0); homicide 38.4 (95% CI: 33.8-43.0; suicide 13.4 (95% CI: 11.6-15.2) and road-traffic injury 36.1 (95% CI: 30.9-41.3). Using postmortem reports, we found more than three times as many deaths from homicide and road-traffic injury than had been recorded by vital registration for this period. The homicide rate was similar to the estimate for South Africa from a global analysis, but road-traffic and suicide rates were almost fourfold higher. This is the first nationally representative sample of injury-related mortality in South Africa. It provides more accurate estimates and cause-specific profiles that are not available from other sources.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have characterized the contribution of common variants to breast cancer (BC) risk in populations of European ancestry, however GWAS have not been reported in resident African populations. This GWAS included 2485 resident African BC cases and 1101 population matched controls. Two risk loci were identified, located between UNC13C and RAB27A on chromosome 15 (rs7181788, p  = 1.01 × 10 −08 ) and in USP22 on chromosome 17 (rs899342, p  = 4.62 × 10 −08 ). Several genome-wide significant signals were also detected in hormone receptor subtype analysis. The novel loci did not replicate in BC GWAS data from populations of West Africa ancestry suggesting genetic heterogeneity in different African populations, but further validation of these findings is needed. A European ancestry derived polygenic risk model for BC explained only 0.79% of variance in our data. Larger studies in pan-African populations are needed to further define the genetic contribution to BC risk. Although the genetic basis of breast cancer has been explored, most studies have been on European populations. Here, the authors perform a genome-wide association study of breast cancer in Black South African women to identify new genetic variants associated with breast cancer risk.

Background South Africa had an estimated 7.5 million people living with HIV (PLHIV), accounting for approximately 20% of the 38.4 million PLHIV globally in 2021. In 2015, the World Health Organization recommended the universal test and treat (UTT) intervention which was implemented in South Africa in September 2016. Evidence shows that UTT implementation faces challenges in terms of human resources capacity or infrastructure. We aim to explore healthcare providers (HCPs)’ perspectives on the implementation of the UTT strategy in uThukela District Municipality in KwaZulu-Natal province. Methods A qualitative study was conducted with one hundred and sixty-one (161) healthcare providers (HCPs) within 18 healthcare facilities in three subdistricts, comprising of Managers, Nurses, and Lay workers. HCPs were interviewed using an open ended-survey questions to explore their perceptions providing HIV care under the UTT strategy. All interviews were thematically analysed using both inductive and deductive approaches. Results Of the 161 participants (142 female and 19 male), 158 (98%) worked at the facility level, of which 82 (51%) were nurses, and 20 (12.5%) were managers (facility managers and PHC manager/supervisors). Despite a general acceptance of the UTT policy implementation, HCPs expressed challenges such as increased patient defaulter rates, increased work overload, caused by the increased number of service users, and physiological and psychological impacts. The surge in the workload under conditions of inadequate systems’ capacity and human resources, gave rise to a greater burden on HCPs in this study. However, increased life expectancy, good quality of life, and immediate treatment initiation were identified as perceived positive outcomes of UTT on service users. Perceived influence of UTT on the health system included, increased number of patients initiated, decreased burden on the system, meeting the 90-90-90 targets, and financial aspects. Conclusion Health system strengthening such as providing more systems’ capacity for expected increase in workload, proper training and retraining of HCPs with new policies in the management of patient readiness for lifelong ART journey, and ensuring availability of medicines, may reduce strain on HCPs, thus improving the delivery of the comprehensive UTT services to PLHIV.