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"Bray, Rachel"
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Predictors of HIV testing among youth 15–24 years in urban Ethiopia, 2017–2018 Ethiopia population-based HIV impact assessment
by
Eshetu, Frehywot
,
Hoos, David
,
Ajiboye, Aderonke S.
in
Acquired immune deficiency syndrome
,
Adolescent
,
Adolescents
2023
Youth (adolescents and young adults) aged 15-24 years comprise approximately 22% of Ethiopia's total population and make up 0.73% of HIV cases in urban Ethiopia. However, only 63% of HIV-positive youth are aware of their HIV status. We describe the HIV testing behaviors of youth 15-24 years and determined the characteristics of those who were most likely to be tested for HIV within the past year.
Using data from the 2017-2018 Ethiopia Population-based HIV Impact Assessment, we provide survey-weighted estimates and prevalence risk ratios for engagement in HIV testing in the 12 months preceding the survey. We model the likelihood of HIV testing one year or more before the survey compared to never testing, using a multinomial logistic regression model.
Among HIV-negative and unaware HIV-positive youth 15-24 years old (N = 7,508), 21.8% [95% Confidence Interval (CI): 20.4-23.3%] reported testing for HIV in the last 12 months. Female youth [Prevalence Ratio (PR) = 1.6, 95% CI: 1.4-1.8], those aged 20-24 years (PR = 2.6, 95% CI:2.3-2.9), and those ever married (PR = 2.8, 95% CI: 2.5-3.1) were more likely to have tested for HIV within the last year. Adjusting for select demographic characteristics, sex with a non-spousal or non-live-in partner [Relative Risk (RR) = 0.3, 95% CI:0.1-0.8] among males did not increase their likelihood to test for HIV in the prior 12 months. Female youth engaged in antenatal care (RR = 3.0, 95% CI: 1.7-5.3) were more likely to test for HIV in the past year.
The Ethiopian HIV case finding strategy may consider approaches for reaching untested youth, with a specific focus on adolescent males,15-19 years of age. This is critical towards achieving the UNAIDS HIV testing goal of 95% of all individuals living with HIV aware of their status by 2030.
Journal Article
Access to Social Protection by People Living with, at Risk of, or Affected by HIV in Eswatini, Malawi, Tanzania, and Zambia: Results from Population-Based HIV Impact Assessments
by
Keiser, Olivia
,
Topazian, Hillary Mariko
,
Millington, Monique C
in
Access
,
Adolescent girls
,
Adolescents
2022
We aimed to measure social protection coverage among the general population, women and men living with HIV (WLHIV, MLHV), female and male sex workers (FSW, MSW), men who have sex with men (MSM), adolescent girls young women (AGYW), and orphans vulnerable children (OVC) in Eswatini, Malawi, Tanzania, and Zambia. We used Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment data. We operationalised social protection benefits as external economic support from private and public sources to the household in the last three or 12 months. We estimated survey-weighted proportions and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for each population receiving social protection benefits. The sample size ranged from 10,233 adults ages 15–59 years in Eswatini to 29,638 in Tanzania. In the surveyed countries, social protection coverage among the general population was lower than the global average of 45%, ranging from 7.7% (95% CI 6.7%–8.8%) in Zambia to 39.6% (95% CI 36.8%–42.5%) in Eswatini. In Malawi and Zambia, social protection coverage among OVC, AGYW, SW, MSM, and people living with HIV (PLHIV) was similar to the general population. In Eswatini, more AGWY reported receiving social projection benefits than older women and more men not living with HIV reported receiving social protection benefits than MLHIV. In Tanzania, more WLHIV than women not living with HIV, MLHIV than men not living with HIV, and FSW than women who were not sex workers reported receiving social protection benefits. More data on access to social protection benefits by PLHIV or affected by HIV are needed to estimate better their social protection coverage.
Journal Article
Hazardous alcohol use and HIV indicators in six African countries: results from the Population‐based HIV Impact Assessments, 2015–2017
by
Mgomella, George S.
,
Bray, Rachel M.
,
Maokola, Werner M.
in
Acquired immune deficiency syndrome
,
Adult
,
AIDS
2022
Introduction Hazardous alcohol use (HAU), defined as a pattern of alcohol consumption that increases the risk of harmful consequences for the user or others, is associated with an elevated risk of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and poor health outcomes. We describe the association between people living with HIV (PLHIV) who report HAU and key HIV indicators. Gaps in current literature in estimating HAU on HIV outcomes at the regional level of Eastern and Southern Africa still exist and our analysis aims to address this issue. Methods We used weighted pooled data (2015–2017) from the nationally representative Population‐based HIV Impact Assessments among adults who provided written consent aged 18–59 years from Eswatini, Malawi, Namibia, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe. We estimated differences in the prevalence of HIV infection and The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV and AIDS (UNAIDS) 90‐90‐90 indicators between PLHIV by HAU status using log‐binomial regression, stratified by sex. HAU was determined using the Alcohol Use Identification Test—Consumption. Results Among the 9755 women and 4444 men who tested HIV positive, 6.6% of women and 21.8% of men engaged in HAU. Women who reported HAU were more likely to be HIV positive (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR] = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.18–1.46) compared to those who did not report HAU. For the UNAIDS 90‐90‐90 targets, women who engaged in HAU were more likely to be unaware of their HIV‐positive status (aPR = 1.22, 95% CI: 1.01–1.47) and not on antiretroviral therapy (ART) (aPR = 1.73, 95% CI: 1.26–2.37). Men who engaged in HAU were more likely to be unaware of their HIV‐positive status (aPR = 1.56, 95% CI 1.39–1.76) and not on ART (aPR = 1.72, 95% CI: 1.30–2.29). No difference in viral load suppression, defined as <1000 copies/ml of HIV RNA, was seen by sex. Conclusions PLHIV who engage in HAU were more likely to have suboptimal outcomes along the HIV care continuum when compared to those who did not engage in HAU. Targeted interventions, such as alcohol screening for HAU in HIV testing and treatment settings and HIV prevention efforts in alcohol‐based venues, may help countries reach HIV epidemic control by 2030.
Journal Article
People who self-reported testing HIV-positive but tested HIV-negative: A multi-country puzzle of data, serology, and ethics, 2015-2021
by
Sehin Birhanu
,
Faith Ussery
,
Rachel Bray
in
Acquired immune deficiency syndrome
,
AIDS
,
Algorithms
2024
During population-based HIV impact assessments (PHIAs), some participants who self-reported testing HIV-positive (PSRP) tested negative in one or more subsequent survey HIV tests. These unexpected discrepancies between their self-reported results and the survey results draw into question the validity of either the self-reported status or the test results. We analyzed PSRP with negative test results aged 15-59 years old using data collected from 2015 to 2021 in 13 countries, assessing prevalence, self-report status, survey HIV status, viral load, rapid tests and confirmatory tests, and answers to follow-up questions (such as years on treatment). Across these surveys, 19,026 participants were PSRP, and 256 (1.3%) of these were concluded to be HIV-negative after additional survey-based testing and review. PSRP determined to be HIV-negative trended higher in countries with a higher HIV prevalence, but their number was small enough that accepting self- reported HIV-positive status without testing would not have significantly affected the prevalence estimates for HIV or viral load suppression. Additionally, using more detailed information for Uganda, we examined 107 PSRP with any negative test results and found no significant correlation with years on treatment or age. Using these details, we examined support for the possible reasons for these discrepancies beyond misdiagnosis and false reporting. These findings suggest that those conducting surveys would benefit from a nuanced understanding of HIV testing among PSRP to conduct surveys ethically and produce high-quality results.
Journal Article
Parenting Support in England: The Bedding Down of a New Policy
2015
This article enquires into how parenting support, as concept, policy and provision, has penetrated the English social policy landscape, and critically considers why it has proved so popular with policy makers. It first outlines the existing policy configuration. The second section identifies some key factors precipitating the roll-out of parenting support and the third section takes an overview of the significance of the developments from a social and family policy perspective. The argument advanced is that the growth and expansion of parenting support is explained by a coming together of a set of political exigencies around ‘risk’ and the healthy child, and a set of policy ‘solutions’ which are seen to have high promise. In particular, parenting support has the advantage of being relatively easily generalisable (especially in the form of programmes) and aligns with several current developments of the welfare state, towards activation, provision of support through services and an interest in localism.
Journal Article
Hip arthroscopy versus best conservative care for the treatment of femoroacetabular impingement syndrome (UK FASHIoN): a multicentre randomised controlled trial
2018
Femoroacetabular impingement syndrome is an important cause of hip pain in young adults. It can be treated by arthroscopic hip surgery, including reshaping the hip, or with physiotherapist-led conservative care. We aimed to compare the clinical effectiveness of hip arthroscopy with best conservative care.
UK FASHIoN is a pragmatic, multicentre, assessor-blinded randomised controlled trial, done at 23 National Health Service hospitals in the UK. We enrolled patients with femoroacetabular impingement syndrome who presented at these hospitals. Eligible patients were at least 16 years old, had hip pain with radiographic features of cam or pincer morphology but no osteoarthritis, and were believed to be likely to benefit from hip arthroscopy. Patients with bilateral femoroacetabular impingement syndrome were eligible; only the most symptomatic hip was randomly assigned to treatment and followed-up. Participants were randomly allocated (1:1) to receive hip arthroscopy or personalised hip therapy (an individualised, supervised, and progressive physiotherapist-led programme of conservative care). Randomisation was stratified by impingement type and recruiting centre and was done by research staff at each hospital, using a central telephone randomisation service. Patients and treating clinicians were not masked to treatment allocation, but researchers who collected the outcome assessments and analysed the results were masked. The primary outcome was hip-related quality of life, as measured by the patient-reported International Hip Outcome Tool (iHOT-33) 12 months after randomisation, and analysed in all eligible participants who were allocated to treatment (the intention-to-treat population). This trial is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN64081839, and is closed to recruitment.
Between July 20, 2012, and July 15, 2016, we identified 648 eligible patients and recruited 348 participants: 171 participants were allocated to receive hip arthroscopy and 177 to receive personalised hip therapy. Three further patients were excluded from the trial after randomisation because they did not meet the eligibility criteria. Follow-up at the primary outcome assessment was 92% (319 of 348 participants). At 12 months after randomisation, mean iHOT-33 scores had improved from 39·2 (SD 20·9) to 58·8 (27·2) for participants in the hip arthroscopy group, and from 35·6 (18·2) to 49·7 (25·5) in the personalised hip therapy group. In the primary analysis, the mean difference in iHOT-33 scores, adjusted for impingement type, sex, baseline iHOT-33 score, and centre, was 6·8 (95% CI 1·7–12·0) in favour of hip arthroscopy (p=0·0093). This estimate of treatment effect exceeded the minimum clinically important difference (6·1 points). There were 147 patient-reported adverse events (in 100 [72%] of 138 patients) in the hip arthroscopy group) versus 102 events (in 88 [60%] of 146 patients) in the personalised hip therapy group, with muscle soreness being the most common of these (58 [42%] vs 69 [47%]). There were seven serious adverse events reported by participating hospitals. Five (83%) of six serious adverse events in the hip arthroscopy group were related to treatment, and the one in the personalised hip therapy group was not. There were no treatment-related deaths, but one patient in the hip arthroscopy group developed a hip joint infection after surgery.
Hip arthroscopy and personalised hip therapy both improved hip-related quality of life for patients with femoroacetabular impingement syndrome. Hip arthroscopy led to a greater improvement than did personalised hip therapy, and this difference was clinically significant. Further follow-up will reveal whether the clinical benefits of hip arthroscopy are maintained and whether it is cost effective in the long term.
The Health Technology Assessment Programme of the National Institute of Health Research.
Journal Article
St Georg Sled medial unicompartmental arthroplasty: survivorship analysis and function at 20 years follow up
by
Porteous, Andrew J.
,
Bray, Rachel
,
Smith, James R. A.
in
Aged
,
Arthroplasty, Replacement, Knee - methods
,
Follow-Up Studies
2022
Purpose
The peri-operative and short-term benefits of unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA) are well supported in the literature. However, there remains concern regarding the higher revision rate when compared with total knee replacement. This manuscript reports the functional outcome and survivorship of a large series of fixed bearing, medial unicompartmental replacements (St Georg Sled), with a minimum of 20 years follow-up.
Methods
Between 1974 and 1994, 399 patients (496 knees) underwent a medial fixed-bearing UKA. Prospective data were collected pre-operatively and at regular intervals post-operatively using the Bristol Knee Score (BKS), Oxford Knee (OKS) and Western Ontario MacMaster (WOMAC) scores. Kaplan–Meier survival analysis was used to determine survivorship, with revision or need for revision as end point, and differences assessed using Mantel–Cox log rank test.
Results
Functional knee scores improved post-operatively, but demonstrated a slight decline from 10 years of follow-up onwards. Survivorship is estimated as 86% at 10 years, 80% at 15 years, and 78% at 20 years. Sixty knees were revised, with progression of disease in another compartment the commonest reason. Eighty eight percent were revised using a primary prosthesis. For patients over the age of 65 years at the time of index procedure, 93% died with a functioning prosthesis in situ.
Conclusion
Medial UKA demonstrates good long-term function and survivorship, and represents an excellent surgical option for patients aged over 65 years of age, where few patients will require a revision procedure.
Level of evidence
IV.
Journal Article
A radiological index that influences the outcome following patellofemoral joint arthroplasty: the anterior trochlea offset ratio
by
Ahearn, Nathanael
,
Metcalfe, Andrew J.
,
Eldridge, Jonathan
in
Arthroplasty
,
Arthroplasty, Replacement, Knee
,
Child, Preschool
2023
Purpose
Although largely successful, patellofemoral joint arthroplasty (PFA) has a less than satisfactory outcome in some patients. It was hypothesized that certain factors can be identified on radiological review that correlate with poor patient reported outcomes following PFA.
Methods
A retrospective cohort review of 369 patients undergoing PFA at our institution between 2005 and 2018 identified 43 “poor outcome” patients with an Oxford Knee Score (OKS) of less than 20 at 2 years follow up. These cases were matched by sex and age with 43 “good outcome” patients who had an OKS above 40 at 2 years post-op. Multiple radiological measurements were performed including anterior trochlea offset ratio (ATOR), component flexion/extension, component varus/valgus, component to bone width ratio and retinacular index. The OKS PROM was the primary outcome of the study. Stepwise logistic regression was performed to analyze the differences in radiological indices between the two groups.
Results
Intraclass correlation coefficients for inter-observer and intra-observer reliability were 0.90–0.98 for all indices measured. The only index demonstrating statistical significance between the groups was the ATOR (
p
= 0.003). The good outcome group had a mean ATOR of 0.19 whereas the poor outcome group had a mean ATOR of 0.24.
Conclusions
Lower ATOR on radiological review was strongly associated with improved outcomes following PFA. The surgeon should therefore take particular care to prevent increasing the anterior offset of the trochlea component when performing PFA.
Level of evidence
Retrospective cohort study, Level III.
Journal Article
Correlating the Bethesda System for Reporting Thyroid Cytopathology with Histology and Extent of Surgery: A Review of 21,746 Patients from Four Endocrine Surgery Registries Across Two Continents
2020
Background
The Bethesda system for cytopathology (TBSRTC) is a 6-tier diagnostic framework developed to standardize thyroid cytopathology reporting. The aim of this study was to determine the risk of malignancy (ROM) for each Bethesda category.
Methods
Thyroidectomy-related data from 314 facilities in 22 countries were entered into the following outcome registries: CESQIP (North America), Eurocrine (Europe), SQRTPA (Sweden) and UKRETS (UK). Demographic, cytological, pathologic and extent of surgery data were mapped into one dataset and analyzed.
Results
Out of 41,294 thyroidectomy patient entries from January 1, 2015, to June 30, 2017, 21,746 patients underwent both thyroid FNA and surgery. A comparison of cytology and surgical pathology data demonstrated a ROM for Bethesda categories 1 to 6 of 19.2%, 12.7%, 31.9%, 31.4%, 77.8% and 96.0%, respectively. Male patients had a higher rate of malignancy for every Bethesda category. Secondary analysis demonstrated a high ROM in male patients with Bethesda 3 category aged 31–35 years (52.1%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 37.9–66.2%), aged 36–40 years (55.9%, 95% CI 39.2–72.6%) and aged 41–45 years (46.9%, 95% CI 33–60.9%). Patients with Bethesda 5 and 6 scores were more likely to undergo total thyroidectomy (65.9% and 84.6%); for patients with Bethesda scores 2 and 3, a higher percentage of females underwent total thyroidectomy compared to males in spite of a higher ROM for males.
Conclusions
These data demonstrate that Bethesda categories 1–4 are associated with a higher ROM compared to the first edition of TBSRTC, especially in male patients, and validate findings from the second edition of TBSRTC.
Journal Article
Correcting for selection bias in HIV prevalence estimates: an application of sample selection models using data from population‐based HIV surveys in seven sub‐Saharan African countries
by
Marra, Giampiero
,
Saito, Suzue
,
Mgomella, George S.
in
Acquired immune deficiency syndrome
,
Adjustment
,
Adolescent
2022
Introduction Population‐based biomarker surveys are the gold standard for estimating HIV prevalence but are susceptible to substantial non‐participation (up to 30%). Analytical missing data methods, including inverse‐probability weighting (IPW) and multiple imputation (MI), are biased when data are missing‐not‐at‐random, for example when people living with HIV more frequently decline participation. Heckman‐type selection models can, under certain assumptions, recover unbiased prevalence estimates in such scenarios. Methods We pooled data from 142,706 participants aged 15–49 years from nationally representative cross‐sectional Population‐based HIV Impact Assessments in seven countries in sub‐Saharan Africa, conducted between 2015 and 2018 in Tanzania, Uganda, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Lesotho and Eswatini. We compared sex‐stratified HIV prevalence estimates from unadjusted, IPW, MI and selection models, controlling for household and individual‐level predictors of non‐participation, and assessed the sensitivity of selection models to the copula function specifying the correlation between study participation and HIV status. Results In total, 84.1% of participants provided a blood sample to determine HIV serostatus (range: 76% in Malawi to 95% in Uganda). HIV prevalence estimates from selection models diverged from IPW and MI models by up to 5% in Lesotho, without substantial precision loss. In Tanzania, the IPW model yielded lower HIV prevalence estimates among males than the best‐fitting copula selection model (3.8% vs. 7.9%). Conclusions We demonstrate how HIV prevalence estimates from selection models can differ from those obtained under missing‐at‐random assumptions. Further benefits include exploration of plausible relationships between participation and outcome. While selection models require additional assumptions and careful specification, they are an important tool for triangulating prevalence estimates in surveys with substantial missing data due to non‐participation.
Journal Article