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97 result(s) for "Breyer, Christian"
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Assessment of lithium criticality in the global energy transition and addressing policy gaps in transportation
The forthcoming global energy transition requires a shift to new and renewable technologies, which increase the demand for related materials. This study investigates the long-term availability of lithium (Li) in the event of significant demand growth of rechargeable lithium-ion batteries for supplying the power and transport sectors with very-high shares of renewable energy. A comprehensive assessment that uses 18 scenarios, created by combining 8 demand related variations with 4 supply conditions, were performed. Here this study shows that Li is critical to achieve a sustainable energy transition. The achievement of a balanced Li supply and demand throughout this century depends on the presence of well-established recycling systems, achievement of vehicle-to-grid integration, and realisation of transportation services with lower Li intensity. As a result, it is very important to achieve a concerted global effort to enforce a mix of policy goals identified in this study. The long-term availability of lithium in the event of significant demand growth of rechargeable lithium-ion batteries is important to assess. Here the authors assess lithium demand and supply challenges of a long-term energy transition using 18 scenarios, developed by combining 8 demand and 4 supply variations.
Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World
The pivotal target of the Paris Agreement is to keep temperature rise well below 2 °C above the pre-industrial level and pursue efforts to limit temperature rise to 1.5 °C. To meet this target, all energy-consuming sectors, including the transport sector, need to be restructured. The transport sector accounted for 19% of the global final energy demand in 2015, of which the vast majority was supplied by fossil fuels (around 31,080 TWh). Fossil-fuel consumption leads to greenhouse gas emissions, which accounted for about 8260 MtCO2eq from the transport sector in 2015. This paper examines the transportation demand that can be expected and how alternative transportation technologies along with new sustainable energy sources can impact the energy demand and emissions trend in the transport sector until 2050. Battery-electric vehicles and fuel-cell electric vehicles are the two most promising technologies for the future on roads. Electric ships and airplanes for shorter distances and hydrogen-based synthetic fuels for longer distances may appear around 2030 onwards to reduce the emissions from the marine and aviation transport modes. The rail mode will remain the least energy-demanding, compared to other transport modes. An ambitious scenario for achieving zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 is applied, also demonstrating the very high relevance of direct and indirect electrification of the transport sector. Fossil-fuel demand can be reduced to zero by 2050; however, the electricity demand is projected to rise from 125 TWhel in 2015 to about 51,610 TWhel in 2050, substantially driven by indirect electricity demand for the production of synthetic fuels. While the transportation demand roughly triples from 2015 to 2050, substantial efficiency gains enable an almost stable final energy demand for the transport sector, as a consequence of broad electrification. The overall well-to-wheel efficiency in the transport sector increases from 26% in 2015 to 39% in 2050, resulting in a respective reduction of overall losses from primary energy to mechanical energy in vehicles. Power-to-fuels needed mainly for marine and aviation transport is not a significant burden for overall transport sector efficiency. The primary energy base of the transport sector switches in the next decades from fossil resources to renewable electricity, driven by higher efficiency and sustainability.
Global Energy Security Index and Its Application on National Level
Energy security is an international concern for all countries in the world, particularly, for the policymakers looking for the wellbeing of citizens. While proper methods to measure energy security without ignoring the different aspects and multidimensional interplay is necessary, the need for an objective evaluation with numerical indicators is of utmost importance. This research covers these gaps by providing a detailed numerical method to formulate an energy security index that is globally comprehensive, but also nationally applicable to all countries in the world. This implies to include all needed aspects and dimensions of energy security. Results of this research show the global performance of all countries in the world in energy security and the performance of these countries in each of the 15 dimensions that articulate energy security. Germany and the United States performed best in the world, when it comes to overall energy security levels, whereas the Central African Republic and Turkmenistan are on the lowest end of performance. Conclusions show that there is not a single way for development and enhancing energy security but rather different alternatives and options. Countries need to learn from each other to identify what works best for their context and implement these strategies in order to enhance energy security.
Carbon dioxide direct air capture for effective climate change mitigation based on renewable electricity: a new type of energy system sector coupling
Pathways for achieving the 1.5–2 °C global temperature moderation target imply a massive scaling of carbon dioxide (CO2) removal technologies, in particular in the 2040s and onwards. CO2 direct air capture (DAC) is among the most promising negative emission technologies (NETs). The energy demands for low-temperature solid-sorbent DAC are mainly heat at around 100 °C and electricity, which lead to sustainably operated DAC systems based on low-cost renewable electricity and heat pumps for the heat supply. This analysis is carried out for the case of the Maghreb region, which enjoys abundantly available low-cost renewable energy resources. The energy transition results for the Maghreb region lead to a solar photovoltaic (PV)-dominated energy supply with some wind energy contribution. DAC systems will need the same energy supply structure. The research investigates the levelised cost of CO2 DAC (LCOD) in high spatial resolution and is based on full hourly modelling for the Maghreb region. The key results are LCOD of about 55 €/tCO2 in 2050 with a further cost reduction potential of up to 50%. The area demand is considered and concluded to be negligible. Major conclusions for CO2 removal as a new energy sector are drawn. Key options for a global climate change mitigation strategy are first an energy transition towards renewable energy and second NETs for achieving the targets of the Paris Agreement.
Electricity system based on 100% renewable energy for India and SAARC
The developing region of SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) is home to a large number of people living below the poverty line. In future, providing affordable, universally accessible, reliable, low to zero carbon electricity in this region will be the main aim. A cost optimal 100% renewable energy system is simulated for SAARC for the year 2030 on an hourly resolved basis. The region was divided into 16 sub-regions and three different scenarios were set up based on the level of high voltage direct current (HVDC) grid connections. The results obtained for a total system levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) showed a decrease from 71.6 €/MWh in a decentralized to 67.2 €/MWh for a centralized grid connected scenario. An additional scenario was simulated to show the benefits of integrating industrial gas production and seawater reverse osmosis desalination demand, and showed the system cost decreased by 5% and total electricity generation decreased by 1%. The results show that a 100% renewable energy system could be a reality in the SAARC region with the cost assumptions used in this research and it may be more cost competitive than nuclear and fossil carbon capture and storage (CCS) alternatives. One of the limitations of this study is the cost of land for installation of renewables which is not included in the LCOE calculations, but regarded as a minor contribution.
The role of renewables for rapid transitioning of the power sector across states in India
Recent events like heatwaves and abnormal rainfall are a glimpse of the devastating effects of human induced climate change. No country is immune to its effects, but a developing country like India is particularly vulnerable. This research, for the individual states of India, explores the technical feasibility and economic viability of a renewable transition pathway for the power sector. Based on the assumptions of this study, we show that a renewables-based power system by 2050 is lower in cost than the current  coal dominated system, has zero greenhouse gas emissions and provides reliable electricity to around 1.7 billion people. Electricity generation will be based on solar PV, wind energy, and hydropower, while batteries and multi-fuel reciprocating internal combustion engines based on synthetic fuels provide the required flexibility to the power system. This transition would address  multiple imperatives: affordability, accessibility, and sustainability without compromising economic growth. A new study assesses the feasibility of a fully renewable based power system by 2050 across India, finding this option to be cost competitive with the status quo and with zero GHG emissions.
Systemwide energy return on investment in a sustainable transition towards net zero power systems
The Glasgow Climate Pact articulated the vital importance of renewables in reducing emissions on the way to net-zero pledges. During the power sector transition, foreseeing conditions affecting the plausibility of pathway options is crucial for specifying an optimal system development strategy. This study examines the net energy performance of nine decarbonisation global energy transition scenarios until 2050 by applying a newly developed systemwide energy return on investment (EROI) model. All scenarios result in an EROI value above the upper limit of the net energy cliff, expected to be around 10. EROI trends heavily depend on transition paths. Once achieving higher renewable energy shares begin requiring significant enabling technologies, EROI continually declines as the shares increase. Shortening the transition period leads to a sharper declining of EROI, which stabilises after achieving 100% renewables. The vulnerability arising from natural gas and oil depletions may have worst impact on EROI of fossil fuels dominated systems. Here, the authors adopt systemwide EROI to assess the sustainability risks of nine global energy transition scenarios. The EROI of fossil fuel dominated scenarios tend to approach the upper limit of the net energy cliff, posing higher sustainability risks.
Radical transformation pathway towards sustainable electricity via evolutionary steps
A transition towards long-term sustainability in global energy systems based on renewable energy resources can mitigate several growing threats to human society simultaneously: greenhouse gas emissions, human-induced climate deviations, and the exceeding of critical planetary boundaries. However, the optimal structure of future systems and potential transition pathways are still open questions. This research describes a global, 100% renewable electricity system, which can be achieved by 2050, and the steps required to enable a realistic transition that prevents societal disruption. Modelling results show that a carbon neutral electricity system can be built in all regions of the world in an economically feasible manner. This radical transformation will require steady but evolutionary changes for the next 35 years, and will lead to sustainable and affordable power supply globally. The technical and economic viability of renewable energy (RE) based energy system is understudied. Here the authors utilized a LUT Energy System Transition Model to indicate that a carbon neutral electricity system can be built in all global regions in an economically feasible way but requires evolutionary changes for the following 35 years.
Hydro, wind and solar power as a base for a 100% renewable energy supply for South and Central America
Power systems for South and Central America based on 100% renewable energy (RE) in the year 2030 were calculated for the first time using an hourly resolved energy model. The region was subdivided into 15 sub-regions. Four different scenarios were considered: three according to different high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission grid development levels (region, country, area-wide) and one integrated scenario that considers water desalination and industrial gas demand supplied by synthetic natural gas via power-to-gas (PtG). RE is not only able to cover 1813 TWh of estimated electricity demand of the area in 2030 but also able to generate the electricity needed to fulfil 3.9 billion m3 of water desalination and 640 TWhLHV of synthetic natural gas demand. Existing hydro dams can be used as virtual batteries for solar and wind electricity storage, diminishing the role of storage technologies. The results for total levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) are decreased from 62 €/MWh for a highly decentralized to 56 €/MWh for a highly centralized grid scenario (currency value of the year 2015). For the integrated scenario, the levelized cost of gas (LCOG) and the levelized cost of water (LCOW) are 95 €/MWhLHV and 0.91 €/m3, respectively. A reduction of 8% in total cost and 5% in electricity generation was achieved when integrating desalination and power-to-gas into the system.
A Techno-Economic Study of an Entirely Renewable Energy-Based Power Supply for North America for 2030 Conditions
In this study power generation and demand are matched through a least-cost mix of renewable energy (RE) resources and storage technologies for North America by 2030. The study is performed using an hourly resolved model based on a linear optimization algorithm. The geographical, technical and economic potentials of different forms of RE resources enable the option of building a super grid between different North American regions. North America (including the U.S., Canada and Mexico in this paper), is divided into 20 sub-regions based on their population, demand, area and electricity grid structure. Four scenarios have been evaluated: region-wide, country-wide, area-wide and an integrated scenario. The levelised cost of electricity is found to be quite attractive in such a system, with the range from 63 €/MWhel in a decentralized case and 42 €/MWhel in a more centralized and integrated scenario. Electrical grid interconnections significantly reduce the storage requirement and overall cost of the energy system. Among all RE resources, wind and solar PV are found to be the least-cost options and hence the main contributors to fossil fuel substitution. The results clearly show that a 100% RE-based system is feasible and a real policy option at a modest cost. However, such a tremendous transition will not be possible in a short time if policy-makers, energy investors and other relevant organizations do not support the proposed system.