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We present a unique proxy for the reconstruction of variation in precipitation over the Amazon: oxygen isotope ratios in annual rings in tropical cedar (Cedrela odorata). A century-long record from northern Bolivia shows that tree rings preserve the signal of oxygen isotopes in precipitation during the wet season, with weaker influences of temperature and vapor pressure. Tree ring δ ¹⁸O correlates strongly with δ ¹⁸O in precipitation from distant stations in the center and west of the basin, and with Andean ice core δ ¹⁸O showing that the signal is coherent over large areas. The signal correlates most strongly with basin-wide precipitation and Amazon river discharge. We attribute the strength of this (negative) correlation mainly to the cumulative rainout processes of oxygen isotopes (Rayleigh distillation) in air parcels during westward transport across the basin. We further find a clear signature of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the record, with strong ENSO influences over recent decades, but weaker influence from 1925 to 1975 indicating decadal scale variation in the controls on the hydrological cycle. The record exhibits a significant increase in δ ¹⁸O over the 20th century consistent with increases in Andean δ ¹⁸O ice core and lake records, which we tentatively attribute to increased water vapor transport into the basin. Taking these data together, our record reveals a fresh path to diagnose and improve our understanding of variation and trends of the hydrological cycle of the world’s largest river catchment.

Amazon forests, which store ∼50% of tropical forest carbon and play a vital role in global water, energy, and carbon cycling, are predicted to experience both longer and more intense dry seasons by the end of the 21st century. However, the climate sensitivity of this ecosystem remains uncertain: several studies have predicted large-scale die-back of the Amazon, whereas several more recent studies predict that the biome will remain largely intact. Combining remote-sensing and ground-based observations with a size- and age-structured terrestrial ecosystem model, we explore the sensitivity and ecological resilience of these forests to changes in climate. We demonstrate that water stress operating at the scale of individual plants, combined with spatial variation in soil texture, explains observed patterns of variation in ecosystem biomass, composition, and dynamics across the region, and strongly influences the ecosystem’s resilience to changes in dry season length. Specifically, our analysis suggests that in contrast to existing predictions of either stability or catastrophic biomass loss, the Amazon forest’s response to a drying regional climate is likely to be an immediate, graded, heterogeneous transition from high-biomass moist forests to transitional dry forests and woody savannah-like states. Fire, logging, and other anthropogenic disturbances may, however, exacerbate these climate change-induced ecosystem transitions.

Understanding forest carbon sequestration is crucial for predicting and managing the carbon cycle, yet we lack evidence for whether, when and how the carbon sink in tropical forests recovering from land use change is nutrient limited. Here we show how the tropical forest recovery rate responds to experimental nutrient manipulation over a secondary succession gradient in a naturally recovering Central American landscape. Nutrient limitation of aboveground biomass accumulation shifts from strong nitrogen limitation in young forests to no evidence of nitrogen or phosphorus limitation in older secondary or mature forests. Nitrogen addition increases aboveground biomass accumulation by 95% in recently abandoned pasture and 48% in 10-year-old forests. Conversely, we observe no influence of nitrogen on older forests and no evidence of phosphorus limitation at any stage. If our findings of nitrogen limitation extend to young tropical forests globally, nitrogen could prevent the sequestration of 0.69 (0.47-0.84) Gt CO 2 each year. Tropical forests regulate Earth’s carbon cycle, but what governs carbon sequestration following land use remains unclear. Here Tang et al find a shift from strong nitrogen limitation to no nutrient limitation over tropical forest secondary succession.

Many tropical regions show one distinct dry season. Often, this seasonality induces cambial dormancy of trees, particularly if these belong to deciduous species. This will often lead to the formation of annual rings. The aim of this study was to determine whether tree species in the Bolivian Amazon region form annual rings and to study the influence of the total amount and seasonal distribution of rainfall on diameter growth. Ring widths were measured on stem discs of a total of 154 trees belonging to six rain forest species. By correlating ring width and monthly rainfall data we proved the annual character of the tree rings for four of our study species. For two other species the annual character was proved by counting rings on trees of known age and by radiocarbon dating. The results of the climate--growth analysis show a positive relationship between tree growth and rainfall in certain periods of the year, indicating that rainfall plays a major role in tree growth. Three species showed a strong relationship with rainfall at the beginning of the rainy season, while one species is most sensitive to the rainfall at the end of the previous growing season. These results clearly demonstrate that tree ring analysis can be successfully applied in the tropics and that it is a promising method for various research disciplines.

Availability of light and water differs between tropical moist and dry forests, with typically higher understorey light levels and lower water availability in the latter. Therefore, growth trajectories of juvenile trees—those that have not attained the canopy—are likely governed by temporal fluctuations in light availability in moist forests (suppressions and releases), and by spatial heterogeneity in water availability in dry forests. In this study, we compared juvenile growth trajectories of Cedrela odorata in a dry (Mexico) and a moist forest (Bolivia) using tree rings. We tested the following specific hypotheses: (1) moist forest juveniles show more and longer suppressions, and more and stronger releases; (2) moist forest juveniles exhibit wider variation in canopy accession pattern, i.e. the typical growth trajectory to the canopy; (3) growth variation among dry forest juveniles persists over longer time due to spatial heterogeneity in water availability. As expected, the proportion of suppressed juveniles was higher in moist than in dry forest (72 vs. 17%). Moist forest suppressions also lasted longer (9 vs. 5 years). The proportion of juveniles that experienced releases in moist forest (76%) was higher than in dry forest (41%), and releases in moist forests were much stronger. Trees in the moist forest also had a wider variation in canopy accession patterns compared to the dry forest. Our results also showed that growth variation among juvenile trees persisted over substantially longer periods of time in dry forest (>64 years) compared to moist forest (12 years), most probably because of larger persistent spatial variation in water availability. Our results suggest that periodic increases in light availability are more important for attaining the canopy in moist forests, and that spatial heterogeneity in water availability governs long-term tree growth in dry forests.

Understanding the responses of tropical trees to increasing [CO₂] and climate change is important as tropical forests play an important role in carbon and hydrological cycles. We used stable carbon isotopes (δ¹³C) in tree rings to study the physiological responses of a tropical dry forest tree species in southern Mexico, Mimosa acantholoba to changes in atmospheric [CO₂] and variation in climate. Based on annual records of tree ring δ¹³C, we calculated intrinsic water use efficiency (W i) and intercellular [CO₂] (c i). Our results showed that trees responded strongly to the increase in atmospheric [CO₂] over the last four decades; W i increased dramatically by 40%, while c i remained largely constant. The maintenance of a constant c i indicates that photosynthetic rates are unlikely to have increased in response to higher [CO₂], and that improvements in W i are probably due to a reduction in stomatal conductance. This may have large consequences for the hydrological cycle. Inter-annual variation in c i was strongly correlated with total annual rainfall (r = 0.70), and not influenced by temperature, solar radiation or cloud cover. Our results show that δ¹³C in tree rings of tropical dry forest trees may be a powerful tool to evaluate long-term responses of trees to increasing [CO₂] and to variation in climate.

1. The forests of Amazonia are among the most biodiverse on Earth, yet accurately quantifying how species composition varies through space (i.e., beta-diversity) remains a significant challenge. Here, we use high-fidelity airborne imaging spectroscopy from the Carnegie Airborne Observatory to quantify a key component of beta-diversity, the distance decay in species similarity through space, across three landscapes in Northern Peru. We then compared our derived distance decay relationships to theoretical expectations obtained from a Poisson Cluster Process, known to match well with empirical distance decay relationships at local scales. 2. We used an unsupervised machine learning approach to estimate spatial turnover in species composition from the imaging spectroscopy data. We first validated this approach across two landscapes using an independent dataset of forest composition in 49 forest census plots (0.1-1.5 ha). We then applied our approach to three landscapes, which together represented terra firme clay forest, seasonally flooded forest and white-sand forest. We finally used our approach to quantify landscapescale distance decay relationships and compared these with theoretical distance decay relationships derived from a Poisson Cluster Process. 3. We found a significant correlation of similarity metrics between spectral data and forest plot data, suggesting that beta-diversity within and among forest types can be accurately estimated from airborne spectroscopic data using our unsupervised approach. We also found that estimated distance decay in species similarity varied among forest types, with seasonally flooded forests showing stronger distance decay than white-sand and terra firme forests. Finally, we demonstrated that distance decay relationships derived from the theoretical Poisson Cluster Process compare poorly with our empirical relationships. 4. Synthesis. Our results demonstrate the efficacy of using high-fidelity imaging spectroscopy to estimate beta-diversity and continuous distance decay in lowland tropical forests. Furthermore, our findings suggest that distance decay relationships vary substantially among forest types, which has important implications for conserving these valuable ecosystems. Finally, we demonstrate that a theoretical Poisson Cluster Process poorly predicts distance decay in species similarity as conspecific aggregation occurs across a range of nested scales within larger landscapes.

Plants and animals often exhibit strong and persistent growth variation among individuals within a species. Persistently fast‐growing individuals have a higher chance of reaching reproductive size, do so at a younger age, and therefore contribute disproportionately to population growth (λ). Here we introduce a new approach to quantify this “fast‐growth effect.” We propose using age‐size‐structured matrix models in which persistently fast and slow growers are distinguished as they occur in relatively young and old age classes for a given size category. Life‐cycle pathways involving fast growth can then be identified, and their contribution to λ is quantified through loop analysis. We applied this approach to an example species, the tropical rainforest treeCedrela odorata, that shows persistent growth variation among individuals. Loop analysis showed that juvenile trees reaching the 10‐cm diameter class at below‐median age contributed twice as much to λ as slow juvenile growers. Fast growth to larger‐diameter categories also contributed disproportionately to λ. The results were robust to changes in parameter values and life‐history trade‐offs. These results show that the fast‐growth effect can be strong in long‐lived species. Persistent growth differences among individuals should therefore be accommodated for in demographic models and life‐history studies.

1 Growth patterns and ages of tropical forest trees are strongly governed by temporal variation in light availability. Periods of high growth after canopy disturbances (releases) are necessary for successful canopy regeneration, but their importance cannot be studied without lifetime data. The recent detection of annual rings in tropical forest trees enables such analyses. 2 We used tree ring analysis to study lifetime growth patterns and age variation in six Bolivian rain forest species. Our aims were to evaluate the magnitude and sources of age variation of canopy trees, to analyse the frequency of suppression and release events, and to analyse the relation between temporal growth changes and tree age. 3 The average age of trees of 60 cm diameter differed threefold between species and by two- to threefold even within species. This variation was mainly explained by variation in passage time through the juvenile categories. 4 We used strong relative growth changes to detect release and suppression events. On average, canopy trees experienced 0.8-1.4 releases, with a maximum of 4. 5 We distinguished four canopy accession patterns by which trees have attained the canopy (growth without major growth changes, one release event, one suppression event, or several release and suppression events), with increasing time required to attain the canopy. The distribution of trees over categories of canopy accession is therefore closely related to the average age of canopy trees and its variation. 6 There were clear differences among species in how trees attained the canopy and in the length of slow-growth periods they experienced, suggesting differences in shade tolerance and growth responses to gaps, which are indicative of life-history differences among non-pioneer tree species. 7 Canopy attainment of tropical rain forest trees does not occur by steady growth, but rather by irregular patterns of growth spurts and stand-stills, probably mostly caused by temporal variation in light. Differences in these patterns may largely explain differences in the ages of large tropical rain forest trees.

Extant climate observations suggest the dry season over large parts of the Amazon Basin has become longer and drier over recent decades. However, such possible intensification of the Amazon dry season and its underlying causes are still a matter of debate. Here we used oxygen isotope ratios in tree rings (δ 18 O TR ) from six floodplain trees from the western Amazon to assess changes in past climate. Our analysis shows that δ 18 O TR of these trees is negatively related to inter-annual variability of precipitation during the dry season over large parts of the Amazon Basin, consistent with a Rayleigh rainout model. Furthermore δ 18 O TR increases by approximately 2‰ over the last four decades (~ 1970–2014) providing evidence of an Amazon drying trend independent from satellite and in situ rainfall observations. Using a Rayleigh rainout framework, we estimate basin-wide dry season rainfall to have decreased by up to 30%. The δ 18 O TR record further suggests such drying trend may not be unprecedented over the past 80 years. Analysis of δ 18 O TR with sea surface temperatures indicates a strong role of a warming Tropical North Atlantic Ocean in driving this long-term increase in δ 18 O TR and decrease in dry season rainfall.