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"Bromwich, David"
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New Reconstruction of Antarctic Near-Surface Temperatures
A reconstruction of Antarctic monthly mean near-surface temperatures spanning 1958–2012 is presented. Its primary goal is to take advantage of a recently revised key temperature record fromWest Antarctica (Byrd) to shed further light on multidecadal temperature changes in this region. The spatial interpolation relies on a kriging technique aided by spatiotemporal temperature covariances derived from three global reanalyses [the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim), Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR)]. For 1958–2012, the reconstruction yields statistically significant annual warming in the Antarctic Peninsula and virtually all of West Antarctica, but no significant temperature change in East Antarctica. Importantly, the warming is of comparable magnitude both in central West Antarctica and in most of the peninsula, rather than concentrated either in one or the other region as previous reconstructions have suggested. The Transantarctic Mountains act for the temperature trends, as a clear dividing line between East and West Antarctica, reflecting the topographic constraint on warm air advection from the Amundsen Sea basin. The reconstruction also serves to highlight spurious changes in the 1979–2009 time series of the three reanalyses that reduces the reliability of their trends, illustrating a long-standing issue in high southern latitudes. The study concludes with an examination of the influence of the southern annular mode (SAM) on Antarctic temperature trends. The results herein suggest that the trend of the SAM toward its positive phase in austral summer and fall since the 1950s has had a statistically significant cooling effect not only in East Antarctica (as already well documented) and but also (only in fall) in West Antarctica.
Journal Article
How words make things happen
Sooner or later, our words take on meanings other than we intended. How Words Make Things Happen suggests that the conventional idea of persuasive rhetoric (which assumes a speaker's control of calculated effects) and the modern idea of literary autonomy (which assumes that 'poetry makes nothing happen') together have produced a misleading account of the relations between words and human action. Words do make things happen. But they cannot be counted on to produce the result they intend.0This volume studies examples from a range of speakers and writers and offers close readings of their words. Chapter 1 considers the theory of speech-acts propounded by J.L. Austin. 'Speakers Who Convince Themselves' is the subject of chapter 2, which interprets two soliloquies by Shakespeare's characters and two by Milton's Satan. The oratory of Burke and Lincoln come in for extended treatment in chapter 3, while chapter 4 looks at the rival tendencies of moral suasion and aestheticism in the0poetry of Yeats and Auden. The final chapter, a cause of controversy when first published in the London Review of Books, supports a policy of unrestricted free speech against contemporary proposals of censorship. Since we cannot know what our own words are going to do, we have no standing to justify the banishment of one set of words in favour of another.
Book
Meteorological Drivers and Large-Scale Climate Forcing of West Antarctic Surface Melt
Understanding the drivers of surface melting in West Antarctica is crucial for understanding future ice loss and global sea level rise. This study identifies atmospheric drivers of surface melt on West Antarctic ice shelves and ice sheet margins and relationships with tropical Pacific and high-latitude climate forcing using multidecadal reanalysis and satellite datasets. Physical drivers of ice melt are diagnosed by comparing satellite-observed melt patterns to anomalies of reanalysis near-surface air temperature, winds, and satellite-derived cloud cover, radiative fluxes, and sea ice concentration based on an Antarctic summer synoptic climatology spanning 1979–2017. Summer warming in West Antarctica is favored by Amundsen Sea (AS) blocking activity and a negative phase of the southern annular mode (SAM), which both correlate with El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Extensive melt events on the Ross–Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) are linked to persistent, intense AS blocking anticyclones, which force intrusions of marine air over the ice sheet. Surface melting is primarily driven by enhanced downwelling longwave radiation from clouds and a warm, moist atmosphere and by turbulent mixing of sensible heat to the surface by föhn winds. Since the late 1990s, concurrent with ocean-driven WAIS mass loss, summer surface melt occurrence has increased from the Amundsen Sea Embayment to the eastern Ross Ice Shelf. We link this change to increasing anticyclonic advection of marine air into West Antarctica, amplified by increasing air–sea fluxes associated with declining sea ice concentration in the coastal Ross–Amundsen Seas.
Journal Article
American breakdown : the Trump years and how they befell us
\"American Breakdown is the brilliant political diary of one of America's leading essayists, David Bromwich, whose work has drawn wide appreciation for its incisive portraits and accurate prognosis. From his analysis of the Cheney-Bush co-presidency, in which foreign policy was reduced to permanent war, and Barack Obama's practice of reconciliation without truth, Bromwich chronicles the emergence of Donald Trump--the demagogue of a culture of corruption from which all traces of political interest and candor have dropped away. An unsparing account of the degradation of American democracy, the book leads off with a new introduction on the prospects for change during the new Democratic Congress\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Temperature and precipitation projections for the Antarctic Peninsula over the next two decades: contrasting global and regional climate model simulations
This study presents near future (2020–2044) temperature and precipitation changes over the Antarctic Peninsula under the high-emission scenario (RCP8.5). We make use of historical and projected simulations from 19 global climate models (GCMs) participating in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). We compare and contrast GCMs projections with two groups of regional climate model simulations (RCMs): (1) high resolution (15-km) simulations performed with Polar-WRF model forced with bias-corrected NCAR-CESM1 (NC-CORR) over the Antarctic Peninsula, (2) medium resolution (50-km) simulations of KNMI-RACMO21P forced with EC-EARTH (EC) obtained from the CORDEX-Antarctica. A further comparison of historical simulations (1981–2005) with respect to ERA5 reanalysis is also included for circulation patterns and near-surface temperature climatology. In general, both RCM boundary conditions represent well the main circulation patterns of the historical period. Nonetheless, there are important differences in projections such as a notable deepening and weakening of the Amundsen Sea Low in EC and NC-CORR, respectively. Mean annual near-surface temperatures are projected to increase by about 0.5–1.5
∘
C across the entire peninsula. Temperature increase is more substantial in autumn and winter (
∼
2
∘
C). Following opposite circulation pattern changes, both EC and NC-CORR exhibit different warming rates, indicating a possible continuation of natural decadal variability. Although generally showing similar temperature changes, RCM projections show less warming and a smaller increase in melt days in the Larsen Ice Shelf compared to their respective driving fields. Regarding precipitation, there is a broad agreement among the simulations, indicating an increase in mean annual precipitation (
∼
5 to 10%). However, RCMs show some notable differences over the Larsen Ice Shelf where total precipitation decreases (for RACMO) and shows a small increase in rain frequency. We conclude that it seems still difficult to get consistent projections from GCMs for the Antarctic Peninsula as depicted in both RCM boundary conditions. In addition, dominant and common changes from the boundary conditions are largely evident in the RCM simulations. We argue that added value of RCM projections is driven by processes shaped by finer local details and different physics schemes that are introduced by RCMs, particularly over the Larsen Ice Shelf.
Journal Article
Sixty Years of Widespread Warming in the Southern Middle and High Latitudes (1957–2016)
Temperature trends across Antarctica over the last few decades reveal strong and statistically significant warming in West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) contrasting with no significant change overall in East Antarctica. However, recent studies have documented cooling in the AP since the late 1990s. This study aims to place temperature changes in the AP and West Antarctica into a larger spatial and temporal perspective by analyzing monthly station-based surface temperature observations since 1957 across the extratropical Southern Hemisphere, along with sea surface temperature (SST) data and mean sea level pressure reanalysis data. The results confirm statistically significant cooling in station observations and SST trends throughout the AP region since 1999. However, the full 60-yr period shows statistically significant, widespread warming across most of the Southern Hemisphere middle and high latitudes. Positive SST trends broadly reflect these warming trends, especially in the midlatitudes. After confirming the importance of the southern annular mode (SAM) on southern high-latitude climate variability, the influence is removed from the station temperature records, revealing statistically significant background warming across all of the extratropical Southern Hemisphere. Antarctic temperature trends in a suite of climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are then investigated. Consistent with previous work the CMIP5 models warm Antarctica at the background temperature rate that is 2 times faster than that observed. However, removing the SAM influence from both CMIP5 and observed temperatures results in Antarctic trends that differ only modestly, perhaps due to natural multidecadal variability remaining in the observations.
Journal Article
Major Artifacts in ERA5 2‐m Air Temperature Trends Over Antarctica Prior to and During the Modern Satellite Era
Global reanalyzes are widely used for investigations of Antarctic climate variability and change. The European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts 5th generation reanalysis (ERA5) is well regarded and spans 1940 to today. We investigate whether ERA5 reliably represents the 2‐m air temperature trends across the 1940–2022 (83 years) period at seasonal and annual time scales. We compare ERA5 temperatures with an observation‐based temperature reconstruction for Antarctica (RECON) that has monthly resolution for 1958–2022, the period of reliable observational availability. Results for individual stations are also examined. ERA5 anomalously warms Antarctica in relation RECON especially for the period prior to 1979 when satellite observations over the Southern Ocean were sparse. Trend hotspots that are shown to be artifacts are found at three locations and are present until today. The results demonstrate that ERA5 temperature trends can be questionable even today, but variability is well captured after 1979. Plain Language Summary Reanalyzes are especially useful for describing and understanding the climate of regions where observations are few and far between. Reanalyzes are not actual conditions but approximations that have strengths as well as weaknesses. A continuing reanalysis challenge for higher latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere that has caused many previous artifacts is the transition from few satellite observations over the Southern Ocean prior to 1979 to the relative abundance since. Here we examine the 2‐m air temperature from the latest global reanalysis from ECMWF for Antarctica and show that it is still challenged by the 1979 transition. ERA5 warms Antarctica much too rapidly especially prior to 1979 and contains artificial trend hotspots at three locations right up to the present. ERA5 cannot be used for Antarctic temperature climate change applications prior to 1979 but can be applied for this purpose after 1979 with appropriate caution. Key Points ERA5 air temperatures have spurious trends for most regions of Antarctica prior to 1979 Artificial trend hotspots are present at three low elevation sites until the present ERA5 cannot be used for temperature climate change studies over Antarctica earlier than 1979 but can be selectively applied post 1979
Journal Article