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Stocks of soil organic carbon represent a large component of the carbon cycle that may participate in climate change feedbacks, particularly on decadal and centennial timescales. For Earth system models (ESMs), the ability to accurately represent the global distribution of existing soil carbon stocks is a prerequisite for accurately predicting future carbon–climate feedbacks. We compared soil carbon simulations from 11 model centers to empirical data from the Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD) and the Northern Circumpolar Soil Carbon Database (NCSCD). Model estimates of global soil carbon stocks ranged from 510 to 3040 Pg C, compared to an estimate of 1260 Pg C (with a 95% confidence interval of 890–1660 Pg C) from the HWSD. Model simulations for the high northern latitudes fell between 60 and 820 Pg C, compared to 500 Pg C (with a 95% confidence interval of 380–620 Pg C) for the NCSCD and 290 Pg C for the HWSD. Global soil carbon varied 5.9 fold across models in response to a 2.6-fold variation in global net primary productivity (NPP) and a 3.6-fold variation in global soil carbon turnover times. Model–data agreement was moderate at the biome level (R2 values ranged from 0.38 to 0.97 with a mean of 0.75); however, the spatial distribution of soil carbon simulated by the ESMs at the 1° scale was not well correlated with the HWSD (Pearson correlation coefficients less than 0.4 and root mean square errors from 9.4 to 20.8 kg C m−2). In northern latitudes where the two data sets overlapped, agreement between the HWSD and the NCSCD was poor (Pearson correlation coefficient 0.33), indicating uncertainty in empirical estimates of soil carbon. We found that a reduced complexity model dependent on NPP and soil temperature explained much of the 1° spatial variation in soil carbon within most ESMs (R2 values between 0.62 and 0.93 for 9 of 11 model centers). However, the same reduced complexity model only explained 10% of the spatial variation in HWSD soil carbon when driven by observations of NPP and temperature, implying that other drivers or processes may be more important in explaining observed soil carbon distributions. The reduced complexity model also showed that differences in simulated soil carbon across ESMs were driven by differences in simulated NPP and the parameterization of soil heterotrophic respiration (inter-model R2 = 0.93), not by structural differences between the models. Overall, our results suggest that despite fair global-scale agreement with observational data and moderate agreement at the biome scale, most ESMs cannot reproduce grid-scale variation in soil carbon and may be missing key processes. Future work should focus on improving the simulation of driving variables for soil carbon stocks and modifying model structures to include additional processes.

Soil is currently thought to be a sink for carbon; however, the response of this sink to increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide and climate change is uncertain. In this study, we analyzed soil organic carbon (SOC) changes from 11 Earth system models (ESMs) contributing simulations to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We used a reduced complexity model based on temperature and moisture sensitivities to analyze the drivers of SOC change for the historical and high radiative forcing (RCP 8.5) scenarios between 1850 and 2100. ESM estimates of SOC changed over the 21st century (2090–2099 minus 1997–2006) ranging from a loss of 72 Pg C to a gain of 253 Pg C with a multi-model mean gain of 65 Pg C. Many ESMs simulated large changes in high-latitude SOC that ranged from losses of 37 Pg C to gains of 146 Pg C with a multi-model mean gain of 39 Pg C across tundra and boreal biomes. All ESMs showed cumulative increases in global NPP (11 to 59%) and decreases in SOC turnover times (15 to 28%) over the 21st century. Most of the model-to-model variation in SOC change was explained by initial SOC stocks combined with the relative changes in soil inputs and decomposition rates (R2 = 0.89, p < 0.01). Between models, increases in decomposition rate were well explained by a combination of initial decomposition rate, ESM-specific Q10-factors, and changes in soil temperature (R2 = 0.80, p < 0.01). All SOC changes depended on sustained increases in NPP with global change (primarily driven by increasing CO2). Many ESMs simulated large accumulations of SOC in high-latitude biomes that are not consistent with empirical studies. Most ESMs poorly represented permafrost dynamics and omitted potential constraints on SOC storage, such as priming effects, nutrient availability, mineral surface stabilization, and aggregate formation. Future models that represent these constraints are likely to estimate smaller increases in SOC storage over the 21st century.

The relationships between fish assemblages, their associated habitat, and degree of protection from fishing were evaluated over a broad spatial scale throughout the main Hawaiian islands. Most fish assemblage characteristics showed positive responses to protection whether it was physical (e.g. habitat complexity), biological (e.g. coral cover growth forms), or human-induced (e.g. marine reserves). Fish biomass was lowest in areas of direct wave exposure and highest in areas partially sheltered from swells. Higher values for fish species richness, number of individuals, biomass, and diversity were observed in locations with higher substrate complexity. Areas completely protected from fishing had distinct fish assemblages with higher standing stock and diversity than areas where fishing was permitted or areas that were partially protected from fishing. Locations influenced by customary stewardship harbored fish biomass that was equal to or greater than that of no-take protected areas. Marine protected areas in the main Hawaiian islands with high habitat complexity, moderate wave disturbance, a high percentage of branching and/or lobate coral coupled with legal protection from fishing pressure had higher values for most fish assemblage characteristics.[PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]

A series of complex events at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaii, 17 June to 19 June 2007, began with an intrusion in the upper east rift zone (ERZ) and culminated with a small eruption (1500 m3). Surface deformation due to the intrusion was recorded in unprecedented detail by Global Positioning System (GPS) and tilt networks as well as interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data acquired by the ENVISAT and ALOS satellites. A joint nonlinear inversion of GPS, tilt, and InSAR data yields a deflationary source beneath the summit caldera and an ENE‐striking uniform‐opening dislocation with ∼2 m opening, a dip of ∼80° to the south, and extending from the surface to ∼2 km depth. This simple model reasonably fits the overall pattern of deformation but significantly misfits data near the western end of an inferred dike‐like source. Three more complex dike models are tested that allow for distributed opening including (1) a dike that follows the surface trace of the active rift zone, (2) a dike that follows the symmetry axis of InSAR deformation, and (3) two en echelon dike segments beneath mapped surface cracks and newly formed steaming areas. The en echelon dike model best fits near‐field GPS and tilt data. Maximum opening of 2.4 m occurred on the eastern segment beneath the eruptive vent. Although this model represents the best fit to the ERZ data, it still fails to explain data from a coastal tiltmeter and GPS sites on Kīlauea's southwestern flank. The southwest flank GPS sites and the coastal tiltmeter exhibit deformation consistent with observations of previous slow slip events beneath Kīlauea's south flank, but inconsistent with observations of previous intrusions. Slow slip events at Kīlauea and elsewhere are thought to occur in a transition zone between locked and stably sliding zones of a fault. An inversion including slip on a basal decollement improves fit to these data and suggests a maximum of ∼15 cm of seaward fault motion, comparable to previous slow‐slip events.

Several slow slip events beneath the south flank of Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii, have been inferred from transient displacements in daily GPS positions. To search for smaller events that may be close to the noise level in the GPS time series, we compare displacement fields on Kilauea's south flank with displacement patterns in previously identified slow slip events. Matching displacement patterns are found for several new candidate events, although displacements are much smaller than previously identified events. One of the candidates, 29 May 2000, is coincident with a microearthquake swarm, as are all of the previously identified slow slip events. The microearthquakes follow the onset of slow slip, implying that they are triggered by stress changes during slip. The new slow slip event brings the total number of events on Kilauea, between 1997 and 2007, to eight, the smallest having MW = 5.3, and the largest having MW = 6.0. While the recurrence time between the four largest events is 2.11 ± 0.01 years, the repeat time for all eight events is 0.9 ± 0.6 years. We invert for the fault geometry and distribution of slip during the slow slip events. The optimal source depths of 5 km, assuming uniform slip dislocations in an elastic half‐space, are considerably shallower than the accompanying swarm earthquakes (6.5–8.5 km), which would place the earthquakes in a zone of decreased Coulomb stress. Inversions including the effects of topography and layered elastic structure in the forward models favor depths comparable to microearthquake depths, such that the earthquakes are located in a region of increased Coulomb stress. We also invert for time‐dependent fault slip directly from the 30 s GPS phase observations, constraining the source to the optimal uniform slip geometry. On the basis of these inversions, the larger events last between 1.5–2.2 days. The data are unable to resolve migration of slip along the fault. The temporal pattern of accompanying microearthquakes is consistent with the fault slip history assuming a seismicity rate theory based on rate and state‐friction, making the swarm earthquakes coshocks and aftershocks of the slow slip events.

Tackling the role of syntactic constructions, this companion brings out the connections between syntactic structures and semantics/pragmatics and the function of clausal structures in written and spoken texts. This is a practical yet flexible reference that you can return to again and again, whether it be for learning, research or teaching.

Sexual health service access is fundamental to good sexual health, yet interventions designed to address this have rarely been implemented or evaluated. In this article, pilot evaluation findings for a targeted public health behavior change intervention, delivered via a website and web-app, aiming to increase uptake of sexual health services among 13–19-year olds are reported. A pre–post questionnaire-based design was used. Matched baseline and follow-up data were identified from 148 respondents aged 13–18 years. Outcome measures were self-reported service access, selfreported intention to access services and beliefs about services and service access identified through needs analysis. Objective service access data provided by local sexual health services were also analyzed. Analysis suggests the intervention had a significant positive effect on psychological barriers to and antecedents of service access among females. Males, who reported greater confidence in service access compared with females, significantly increased service access by time 2 follow-up. Available objective service access data support the assertion that the intervention may have led to increases in service access. There is real promise for this novel digital intervention. Further evaluation is planned as the model is licensed to and rolled out by other local authorities in the United Kingdom.