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What Does Zero Deforestation Mean?
Ambiguous definitions and metrics create risks for forest conservation and accountability. Since 2005, negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have focused considerable attention on the role that reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) can play in climate change mitigation. As global interest in reducing deforestation has grown, numerous governments, corporate groups, and civil society organizations have set time-bound targets for achieving “zero deforestation.” Some targets specify “net deforestation,” some “gross deforestation,” and some do not specify at all (see the table). Public- and private-sector policy-makers who commit to deforestation reduction targets, and those who advocate for them, are often unclear about their implications. This lack of clarity may lead to perverse outcomes, including governments celebrating reductions of deforestation when large areas of native forest have been cut down and “zero deforestation” certification of agricultural commodities produced on land recently cleared of native forest cover. Progress toward goals of forest conservation, climate change mitigation, and associated cobenefits would be better served and more readily monitored by setting separate time-bound targets for reductions in the clearing of native forests (gross deforestation) and increases in the establishment of new forests on previously cleared lands (reforestation). Net deforestation targets, inherently and erroneously, equate the value of protecting native forests with that of planting new ones.
Journal Article
Outfox
FBI agent Drex Easton is relentlessly driven by a single goal: to outmaneuver the conman once known as Weston Graham. Over the past thirty years, Weston has assumed many names and countless disguises, enabling him to lure eight wealthy women out of their fortunes before they disappeared without a trace, their families left without answers and the authorities without clues. The only common trait among the victims: a new man in their life who also vanished, leaving behind no evidence of his existence, except for one signature detail. Drex is convinced that these women have been murdered, and that the man he knows as Weston Graham is the sociopath responsible. But each time Drex gets close to catching him, Weston trades one persona for another and disappears again. Now, for the first time in their long game of cat and mouse, Drex has a suspect in sight. Attractive and charming, Jasper Ford is recently married to a successful businesswoman many years his junior, Talia Shafer. Drex insinuates himself into their lives, posing as a new neighbor and setting up surveillance on their house. The closer he gets to the couple, the more convinced he becomes that Jasper is the clever, merciless predator he's sought -- and that his own attraction to Talia threatens to compromise his purpose and integrity. This is Drex's one chance to outfox his cunning nemesis before he murders again and eludes justice forever. But first he must determine if the desirable Talia is a heartless accomplice or the next victim.
Book
Greenhouse gas emissions from tropical forest degradation: an underestimated source
Background
The degradation of forests in developing countries, particularly those within tropical and subtropical latitudes, is perceived to be an important contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions. However, the impacts of forest degradation are understudied and poorly understood, largely because international emission reduction programs have focused on deforestation, which is easier to detect and thus more readily monitored. To better understand and seize opportunities for addressing climate change it will be essential to improve knowledge of greenhouse gas emissions from forest degradation.
Results
Here we provide a consistent estimation of forest degradation emissions between 2005 and 2010 across 74 developing countries covering 2.2 billion hectares of forests. We estimated annual emissions of 2.1 billion tons of carbon dioxide, of which 53% were derived from timber harvest, 30% from woodfuel harvest and 17% from forest fire. These percentages differed by region: timber harvest was as high as 69% in South and Central America and just 31% in Africa; woodfuel harvest was 35% in Asia, and just 10% in South and Central America; and fire ranged from 33% in Africa to only 5% in Asia. Of the total emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, forest degradation accounted for 25%. In 28 of the 74 countries, emissions from forest degradation exceeded those from deforestation.
Conclusions
The results of this study clearly demonstrate the importance of accounting greenhouse gases from forest degradation by human activities. The scale of emissions presented indicates that the exclusion of forest degradation from national and international GHG accounting is distorting. This work helps identify where emissions are likely significant, but policy developments are needed to guide when and how accounting should be undertaken. Furthermore, ongoing research is needed to create and enhance cost-effective accounting approaches.
Journal Article
Sting
When Jordie Bennet and Shaw Kinnard lock eyes across a disreputable backwater bar, something definitely sparks. Shaw gives off a dangerous vibe that makes men wary and inspires women to sit up and take notice. None feel that undercurrent more strongly than savvy businesswoman Jordie, who doesn't belong in a seedy dive on the banks of a bayou. But here she is ... and Shaw Kinnard is here to kill her. As Shaw and his partner take aim, Jordie is certain her time has come. But Shaw has other plans and abducts Jordie, hoping to get his hands on the $30 million her brother has stolen and, presumably, hidden. However, Shaw is not the only one looking for the fortune. Her brother's ruthless boss and the FBI are after it as well. Now on the run from the feds and a notorious criminal, Jordie and Shaw must rely on their wits -- and each other -- to stay alive. Miles away from civilization and surrounded by swampland, the two play each other against their common enemies. Jordie's only chance of survival is to outwit Shaw, but it soon becomes clear to Shaw that Jordie isn't entirely trustworthy, either. Was she in on her brother's scam, or is she an innocent pawn in a deadly vendetta? And just how valuable is her life to Shaw, her remorseless and manipulative captor? Burning for answers -- and for each other -- this unlikely pair ultimately make a desperate move that could be their last.
Book
Baseline Map of Carbon Emissions from Deforestation in Tropical Regions
Policies to reduce emissions from deforestation would benefit from clearly derived, spatially explicit statistically bounded estimates of carbon emissions. Existing efforts derive carbon impacts of land-use change using broad assumptions, unreliable data, or both. We improve on this approach using satellite observations of gross forest cover loss and a map of forest carbon stocks to estimate gross carbon emissions across tropical regions between 2000 and 2005 as 0.81 petagram of carbon per year, with a 90% prediction interval of 0.57 to 1.22 petagrams of carbon per year. This estimate is 25 to 50% of recently published estimates. By systematically matching areas of forest loss with their carbon stocks before clearing, these results serve as a more accurate benchmark for monitoring global progress on reducing emissions from deforestation.
Journal Article
Friction
Crawford Hunt wants his daughter back. Following the death of his wife four years ago, Crawford, a Texas Ranger, fell into a downward spiral that left him relegated to deskwork and with his five-year-old daughter Georgia in the custody of her grandparents. But Crawford has cleaned up his act, met all the court imposed requirements, and now the fate of his family lies with Judge Holly Spencer. Holly, ambitious and confident, temporarily occupies the bench of her recently deceased mentor. With an election upcoming, she must prove herself worthy of making her judgeship permanent. When a masked gunman barges in during the custody hearing with his sights on the judge, Crawford reacts instinctually and goes after him. But authorities apprehend the wrong man, and the real gunman remains unknown, at large, and a threat. Will this take-charge lawman jeopardize his chances of custody by going after the would-be assassin? And will this unlikely pair be able to deny the forbidden attraction building between them?
Book
Benchmark map of forest carbon stocks in tropical regions across three continents
Developing countries are required to produce robust estimates of forest carbon stocks for successful implementation of climate change mitigation policies related to reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD). Here we present a \"benchmark\" map of biomass carbon stocks over 2.5 billion ha of forests on three continents, encompassing all tropical forests, for the early 2000s, which will be invaluable for REDD assessments at both project and national scales. We mapped the total carbon stock in live biomass (above- and belowground), using a combination of data from 4,079 in situ inventory plots and satellite light detection and ranging (Lidar) samples of forest structure to estimate carbon storage, plus optical and microwave imagery (1-km resolution) to extrapolate over the landscape. The total biomass carbon stock of forests in the study region is estimated to be 247 Gt C, with 193 Gt C stored aboveground and 54 Gt C stored belowground in roots. Forests in Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asia accounted for 49%, 25%, and 26% of the total stock, respectively. By analyzing the errors propagated through the estimation process, uncertainty at the pixel level (100 ha) ranged from ±6% to ±53%, but was constrained at the typical project (10,000 ha) and national (>1,000,000 ha) scales at ca. ±5% and ca. ±1%, respectively. The benchmark map illustrates regional patterns and provides methodologically comparable estimates of carbon stocks for 75 developing countries where previous assessments were either poor or incomplete.
Journal Article
The switch
When her twin sister turns up dead, Melina Lloyd teams up with her sister's lover to find the truth about the killing, only to find herself on the run from a criminal mastermind whose evil schemes could have global repercussions.
Book
Comparison of factor analysis models applied to the NCANDA neuropsychological test battery
The factor structure of neuropsychological functioning among a large sample (N = 831) of American youth (ages 12–21 at baseline) was investigated in order to identify an optimal model. Candidate models were selected based on their potential to provide service to the study of adolescent development and the effects of heavy episodic alcohol consumption. Data on neuropsychological functioning were obtained from the NCANDA study. This is a longitudinal community study of the effects of alcohol exposure on neurodevelopment. Three conceptually motivated and one empirically motivated factor analysis model of neuropsychological domains were compared based on penalized-likelihood selection criteria and model fit statistics. Two conceptually-motivated models were found to have adequate fit and pattern invariance to function as a measurement model for the Penn Computerized Neurocognitive Battery (Penn CNB) anchored neuropsychological battery in NCANDA. Corroboration of previous factor analysis models was obtained, in addition to the identification of an alternative factor model that has higher discriminant capacity for neuropsychological domains hypothesized to be most sensitive to alcohol exposure in human adolescents. The findings support the use of a factor model developed originally for the Penn CNB and a model developed specifically for the NCANDA project. The NCANDA 8-Factor Model has conceptual and empirical advantages that were identified in the current and prior studies. These advantages are particularly valuable when applied in alcohol research settings.
Journal Article