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A practical introduction to epidemiology, biostatistics, and research methodology for the whole health care community This comprehensive text, which has been extensively revised with new material and additional topics, utilizes a practical slant to introduce health professionals and students to epidemiology, biostatistics, and research methodology. It draws examples from a wide range of topics, covering all of the main contemporary health research methods, including survival analysis, Cox regression, and systematic reviews and meta-analysis—the explanation of which go beyond introductory concepts. This second edition of Quantitative Methods for Health Research: A Practical Interactive Guide to Epidemiology and Statistics also helps develop critical skills that will prepare students to move on to more advanced and specialized methods. A clear distinction is made between knowledge and concepts that all students should ensure they understand, and those that can be pursued further by those who wish to do so. Self-assessment exercises throughout the text help students explore and reflect on their understanding. A program of practical exercises in SPSS (using a prepared data set) helps to consolidate the theory and develop skills and confidence in data handling, analysis, and interpretation. Highlights of the book include: * Combining epidemiology and bio-statistics to demonstrate the relevance and strength of statistical methods * Emphasis on the interpretation of statistics using examples from a variety of public health and health care situations to stress relevance and application * Use of concepts related to examples of published research to show the application of methods and balance between ideals and the realities of research in practice * Integration of practical data analysis exercises to develop skills and confidence * Supplementation by a student companion website which provides guidance on data handling in SPSS and study data sets as referred to in the text Quantitative Methods for Health Research, Second Edition is a practical learning resource for students, practitioners and researchers in public health, health care and related disciplines, providing both a course book and a useful introductory reference. 

Globally, 2.8 billion people rely on household solid fuels. Reducing the resulting adverse health, environmental, and development consequences will involve transitioning through a mix of clean fuels and improved solid fuel stoves (IS) of demonstrable effectiveness. To date, achieving uptake of IS has presented significant challenges. We performed a systematic review of factors that enable or limit large-scale uptake of IS in low- and middle-income countries. We conducted systematic searches through multidisciplinary databases, specialist websites, and consulting experts. The review drew on qualitative, quantitative, and case studies and used standardized methods for screening, data extraction, critical appraisal, and synthesis. We summarized our findings as \"factors\" relating to one of seven domains-fuel and technology characteristics; household and setting characteristics; knowledge and perceptions; finance, tax, and subsidy aspects; market development; regulation, legislation, and standards; programmatic and policy mechanisms-and also recorded issues that impacted equity. We identified 31 factors influencing uptake from 57 studies conducted in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. All domains matter. Although factors such as offering technologies that meet household needs and save fuel, user training and support, effective financing, and facilitative government action appear to be critical, none guarantee success: All factors can be influential, depending on context. The nature of available evidence did not permit further prioritization. Achieving adoption and sustained use of IS at a large scale requires that all factors, spanning household/community and program/societal levels, be assessed and supported by policy. We propose a planning tool that would aid this process and suggest further research to incorporate an evaluation of effectiveness.

WHO estimates exposure to air pollution from cooking with solid fuels is associated with over 4 million premature deaths worldwide every year including half a million children under the age of 5 years from pneumonia. We hypothesised that replacing open fires with cleaner burning biomass-fuelled cookstoves would reduce pneumonia incidence in young children. We did a community-level open cluster randomised controlled trial to compare the effects of a cleaner burning biomass-fuelled cookstove intervention to continuation of open fire cooking on pneumonia in children living in two rural districts, Chikhwawa and Karonga, of Malawi. Clusters were randomly allocated to intervention and control groups using a computer-generated randomisation schedule with stratification by site, distance from health centre, and size of cluster. Within clusters, households with a child under the age of 4·5 years were eligible. Intervention households received two biomass-fuelled cookstoves and a solar panel. The primary outcome was WHO Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI)-defined pneumonia episodes in children under 5 years of age. Efficacy and safety analyses were by intention to treat. The trial is registered with ISRCTN, number ISRCTN59448623. We enrolled 10 750 children from 8626 households across 150 clusters between Dec 9, 2013, and Feb 28, 2016. 10 543 children from 8470 households contributed 15 991 child-years of follow-up data to the intention-to-treat analysis. The IMCI pneumonia incidence rate in the intervention group was 15·76 (95% CI 14·89–16·63) per 100 child-years and in the control group 15·58 (95% CI 14·72–16·45) per 100 child-years, with an intervention versus control incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 1·01 (95% CI 0·91–1·13; p=0·80). Cooking-related serious adverse events (burns) were seen in 19 children; nine in the intervention and ten (one death) in the control group (IRR 0·91 [95% CI 0·37–2·23]; p=0·83). We found no evidence that an intervention comprising cleaner burning biomass-fuelled cookstoves reduced the risk of pneumonia in young children in rural Malawi. Effective strategies to reduce the adverse health effects of household air pollution are needed. Medical Research Council, UK Department for International Development, and Wellcome Trust.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in ambient air requires knowledge of both the shape and magnitude of the relative risk (RR) function. However, adequate direct evidence to identify the shape of the mortality RR functions at the high ambient concentrations observed in many places in the world is lacking. We developed RR functions over the entire global exposure range for causes of mortality in adults: ischemic heart disease (IHD), cerebrovascular disease (stroke), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and lung cancer (LC). We also developed RR functions for the incidence of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) that can be used to estimate mortality and lost-years of healthy life in children < 5 years of age. We fit an integrated exposure-response (IER) model by integrating available RR information from studies of ambient air pollution (AAP), second hand tobacco smoke, household solid cooking fuel, and active smoking (AS). AS exposures were converted to estimated annual PM2.5 exposure equivalents using inhaled doses of particle mass. We derived population attributable fractions (PAFs) for every country based on estimated worldwide ambient PM2.5 concentrations. The IER model was a superior predictor of RR compared with seven other forms previously used in burden assessments. The percent PAF attributable to AAP exposure varied among countries from 2 to 41 for IHD, 1 to 43 for stroke, < 1 to 21 for COPD, < 1 to 25 for LC, and < 1 to 38 for ALRI. We developed a fine particulate mass-based RR model that covered the global range of exposure by integrating RR information from different combustion types that generate emissions of particulate matter. The model can be updated as new RR information becomes available.

Exposure to household air pollution from cooking with solid fuels in simple stoves is a major health risk. Modeling reliable estimates of solid fuel use is needed for monitoring trends and informing policy. In order to revise the disease burden attributed to household air pollution for the Global Burden of Disease 2010 project and for international reporting purposes, we estimated annual trends in the world population using solid fuels. We developed a multilevel model based on national survey data on primary cooking fuel. The proportion of households relying mainly on solid fuels for cooking has decreased from 62% (95% CI: 58, 66%) to 41% (95% CI: 37, 44%) between 1980 and 2010. Yet because of population growth, the actual number of persons exposed has remained stable at around 2.8 billion during three decades. Solid fuel use is most prevalent in Africa and Southeast Asia where > 60% of households cook with solid fuels. In other regions, primary solid fuel use ranges from 46% in the Western Pacific, to 35% in the Eastern Mediterranean and < 20% in the Americas and Europe. Multilevel modeling is a suitable technique for deriving reliable solid-fuel use estimates. Worldwide, the proportion of households cooking mainly with solid fuels is decreasing. The absolute number of persons using solid fuels, however, has remained steady globally and is increasing in some regions. Surveys require enhancement to better capture the health implications of new technologies and multiple fuel use.

The global burden of disease attributable to respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) remains unknown. We aimed to estimate the global incidence of and mortality from episodes of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) due to RSV in children younger than 5 years in 2005. We estimated the incidence of RSV-associated ALRI in children younger than 5 years, stratified by age, using data from a systematic review of studies published between January, 1995, and June, 2009, and ten unpublished population-based studies. We estimated possible boundaries for RSV-associated ALRI mortality by combining case fatality ratios with incidence estimates from hospital-based reports from published and unpublished studies and identifying studies with population-based data for RSV seasonality and monthly ALRI mortality. In 2005, an estimated 33·8 (95% CI 19·3–46·2) million new episodes of RSV-associated ALRI occurred worldwide in children younger than 5 years (22% of ALRI episodes), with at least 3·4 (2·8–4·3) million episodes representing severe RSV-associated ALRI necessitating hospital admission. We estimated that 66 000–199 000 children younger than 5 years died from RSV-associated ALRI in 2005, with 99% of these deaths occurring in developing countries. Incidence and mortality can vary substantially from year to year in any one setting. Globally, RSV is the most common cause of childhood ALRI and a major cause of admission to hospital as a result of severe ALRI. Mortality data suggest that RSV is an important cause of death in childhood from ALRI, after pneumococcal pneumonia and Haemophilus influenzae type b. The development of novel prevention and treatment strategies should be accelerated as a priority. WHO; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Reduction of indoor air pollution (IAP) exposure from solid fuel use is a potentially important intervention for childhood pneumonia prevention. This review updates a prior meta-analysis and investigates whether risk varies by etiological agent and pneumonia severity among children aged less than 5 years who are exposed to unprocessed solid fuels. Searches were made of electronic databases (including Africa, China and Latin America) without language restriction. Search terms covered all sources of IAP and wide-ranging descriptions of acute lower respiratory infections, including viral and bacterial agents. From 5317 studies in the main electronic databases (plus 307 African and Latin American, and 588 Chinese studies, in separate databases), 25 were included in the review and 24 were suitable for meta-analysis. Due to substantial statistical heterogeneity, random effects models were used. The overall pooled odds ratio was 1.78 (95% confidence interval, CI: 1.45-2.18), almost unchanged at 1.79 (95% CI: 1.26-2.21) after exclusion of studies with low exposure prevalence (< 15%) and one high outlier. There was evidence of publication bias, and the implications for the results are explored. Sensitivity subanalyses assessed the impact of control selection, adjustment for confounding, exposure and outcome assessment, and age, but no strong effects were identified. Evidence on respiratory syncytial virus was conflicting, while risk for severe or fatal pneumonia was similar to or higher than that for all pneumonia. Despite heterogeneity, this analysis demonstrated sufficient consistency to conclude that risk of pneumonia in young children is increased by exposure to unprocessed solid fuels by a factor of 1.8. Greater efforts are now required to implement effective interventions.

Globally, approximately 3 billion primarily cook using inefficient and poorly vented combustion devices, leading to unsafe levels of household air pollution (HAP) in and around the home. Such exposures contribute to nearly 4 million deaths annually (WHO 2018a, 2018b ). Characterizing the effectiveness of interventions for reducing HAP concentration and exposure is critical for informing policy and programmatic decision-making on which cooking solutions yield the greatest health benefits. This review synthesizes evidence of in-field measurements from four cleaner cooking technologies and three clean fuels, using field studies aimed at reducing HAP concentration and personal exposure to health damaging pollutants (particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) and carbon monoxide (CO)). Fifty studies from Africa, Asia, South and Latin America, provided 168 estimates synthesized through meta-analysis. For PM 2.5 kitchen concentrations, burning biomass more cleanly through improved combustion stoves (ICS) with ( n = 29; 63% reduction) or without ( n = 12; 52%) venting (through flue or chimney) and through forced-draft combustion ( n = 9; 50%) was less effective than cooking with clean fuels including ethanol ( n = 4; 83%), liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) ( n = 11; 83%) and electricity ( n = 6; 86%). Only studies of clean fuels consistently achieved post-intervention kitchen PM 2.5 levels at or below the health-based WHO interim target level 1 (WHO-IT1) of 35 μ g m −3 . None of the advanced combustion stoves (gasifiers) achieved WHO-IT1, although no evidence was available for pellet fuelled stoves. For personal exposure to PM 2.5, none of the ICS ( n = 11) were close to WHO-IT1 whereas 75% ( n = 6 of 8) of LPG interventions were at or below WHO-IT1. Similar patterns were observed for CO, although most post-intervention levels achieved the WHO 24 h guideline level. While clean cooking fuel interventions (LPG, electric) significantly reduce kitchen concentrations and personal exposure to PM 2.5 in household settings, stove stacking and background levels of ambient air pollution, have likely prevented most clean fuel interventions from approaching WHO-IT1. In order to maximize health gains, a wholistic approach jointly targeting ambient and HAP should be followed in lower-and-middle income countries.

This Series has examined the health implications of policies aimed at tackling climate change. Assessments of mitigation strategies in four domains—household energy, transport, food and agriculture, and electricity generation—suggest an important message: that actions to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions often, although not always, entail net benefits for health. In some cases, the potential benefits seem to be substantial. This evidence provides an additional and immediate rationale for reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions beyond that of climate change mitigation alone. Climate change is an increasing and evolving threat to the health of populations worldwide. At the same time, major public health burdens remain in many regions. Climate change therefore adds further urgency to the task of addressing international health priorities, such as the UN Millennium Development Goals. Recognition that mitigation strategies can have substantial benefits for both health and climate protection offers the possibility of policy choices that are potentially both more cost effective and socially attractive than are those that address these priorities independently.

Pneumonia causes more child deaths than does any other disease. Observational studies have indicated that smoke from household solid fuel is a significant risk factor that affects about half the world's children. We investigated whether an intervention to lower indoor wood smoke emissions would reduce pneumonia in children. We undertook a parallel randomised controlled trial in highland Guatemala, in a population using open indoor wood fires for cooking. We randomly assigned 534 households with a pregnant woman or young infant to receive a woodstove with chimney (n=269) or to remain as controls using open woodfires (n=265), by concealed permuted blocks of ten homes. Fieldworkers visited homes every week until children were aged 18 months to record the child's health status. Sick children with cough and fast breathing, or signs of severe illness were referred to study physicians, masked to intervention status, for clinical examination. The primary outcome was physician-diagnosed pneumonia, without use of a chest radiograph. Analysis was by intention to treat (ITT). Infant 48-h carbon monoxide measurements were used for exposure-response analysis after adjustment for covariates. This trial is registered, number ISRCTN29007941. During 29 125 child-weeks of surveillance of 265 intervention and 253 control children, there were 124 physician-diagnosed pneumonia cases in intervention households and 139 in control households (rate ratio [RR] 0·84, 95% CI 0·63–1·13; p=0·257). After multiple imputation, there were 149 cases in intervention households and 180 in controls (0·78, 0·59–1·06, p=0·095; reduction 22%, 95% CI −6% to 41%). ITT analysis was undertaken for secondary outcomes: all and severe fieldworker-assessed pneumonia; severe (hypoxaemic) physician-diagnosed pneumonia; and radiologically confirmed, RSV-negative, and RSV-positive pneumonia, both total and severe. We recorded significant reductions in the intervention group for three severe outcomes—fieldworker-assessed, physician-diagnosed, and RSV-negative pneumonia—but not for others. We identified no adverse effects from the intervention. The chimney stove reduced exposure by 50% on average (from 2·2 to 1·1 ppm carbon monoxide), but exposure distributions for the two groups overlapped substantially. In exposure-response analysis, a 50% exposure reduction was significantly associated with physician-diagnosed pneumonia (RR 0·82, 0·70–0·98), the greater precision resulting from less exposure misclassification compared with use of stove type alone in ITT analysis. In a population heavily exposed to wood smoke from cooking, a reduction in exposure achieved with chimney stoves did not significantly reduce physician-diagnosed pneumonia for children younger than 18 months. The significant reduction of a third in severe pneumonia, however, if confirmed, could have important implications for reduction of child mortality. The significant exposure-response associations contribute to causal inference and suggest that stove or fuel interventions producing lower average exposures than these chimney stoves might be needed to substantially reduce pneumonia in populations heavily exposed to biomass fuel air pollution. US National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences and WHO.