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Although guidelines recommend fixed cardiac troponin thresholds for the diagnosis of myocardial infarction, troponin concentrations are influenced by age, sex, comorbidities and time from symptom onset. To improve diagnosis, we developed machine learning models that integrate cardiac troponin concentrations at presentation or on serial testing with clinical features and compute the Collaboration for the Diagnosis and Evaluation of Acute Coronary Syndrome (CoDE-ACS) score (0–100) that corresponds to an individual’s probability of myocardial infarction. The models were trained on data from 10,038 patients (48% women), and their performance was externally validated using data from 10,286 patients (35% women) from seven cohorts. CoDE-ACS had excellent discrimination for myocardial infarction (area under curve, 0.953; 95% confidence interval, 0.947–0.958), performed well across subgroups and identified more patients at presentation as low probability of having myocardial infarction than fixed cardiac troponin thresholds (61 versus 27%) with a similar negative predictive value and fewer as high probability of having myocardial infarction (10 versus 16%) with a greater positive predictive value. Patients identified as having a low probability of myocardial infarction had a lower rate of cardiac death than those with intermediate or high probability 30 days (0.1 versus 0.5 and 1.8%) and 1 year (0.3 versus 2.8 and 4.2%; P  < 0.001 for both) from patient presentation. CoDE-ACS used as a clinical decision support system has the potential to reduce hospital admissions and have major benefits for patients and health care providers. A clinical decision support system for diagnosis of myocardial infarction, based on machine learning models that use a single measurement of high-sensitivity troponin, outperforms clinical guidelines that use fixed cardiac troponin thresholds for diagnosis.

Background The majority of patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome presenting to the emergency department will be discharged once myocardial infarction has been ruled out, although a proportion will have unrecognised coronary artery disease. In this setting, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin identifies those at increased risk of future cardiac events. In patients with intermediate cardiac troponin concentrations in whom myocardial infarction has been ruled out, this trial aims to investigate whether outpatient computed tomography coronary angiography (CTCA) reduces subsequent myocardial infarction or cardiac death. Methods TARGET-CTCA is a multicentre prospective randomised open label with blinded endpoint parallel group event driven trial. After myocardial infarction and clear alternative diagnoses have been ruled out, participants with intermediate cardiac troponin concentrations (5 ng/L to 99th centile upper reference limit) will be randomised 1:1 to outpatient CTCA plus standard of care or standard of care alone. The primary endpoint is myocardial infarction or cardiac death. Secondary endpoints include clinical, patient-centred, process and cost-effectiveness. Recruitment of 2270 patients will give 90% power with a two-sided P value of 0.05 to detect a 40% relative risk reduction in the primary endpoint. Follow-up will continue until 97 primary outcome events have been accrued in the standard care arm with an estimated median follow-up of 36 months. Discussion This randomised controlled trial will determine whether high-sensitivity cardiac troponin-guided CTCA can improve outcomes and reduce subsequent major adverse cardiac events in patients presenting to the emergency department who do not have myocardial infarction. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03952351. Registered on May 16, 2019.

Background Sars-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19, has led to more than 226,000 deaths in the UK and multiple risk factors for mortality including age, sex and deprivation have been identified. This study aimed to identify which individual indicators of the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD), an area-based deprivation index, were predictive of mortality. Methods This was a prospective cohort study of anonymised electronic health records of 710 consecutive patients hospitalised with Covid-19 disease between March and June 2020 in the Lothian Region of Southeast Scotland. Data sources included automatically extracted data from national electronic platforms and manually extracted data from individual admission records. Exposure variables of interest were SIMD quintiles and 12 indicators of deprivation deemed clinically relevant selected from the SIMD. Our primary outcome was mortality. Age and sex adjusted univariable and multivariable analyses were used to determine measures of association between exposures of interest and the primary outcome. Results After adjusting for age and sex, we found an increased risk of mortality in the more deprived SIMD quintiles 1 and 3 (OR 1.75, CI 0.99–3.08, p  = 0.053 and OR 2.17, CI 1.22–3.86, p  = 0.009, respectively), but this association was not upheld in our multivariable model containing age, sex, Performance Status and clinical parameters of severity at admission. Of the 12 pre-selected indicators of deprivation, two were associated with greater mortality in our multivariable analysis: income deprivation rate categorised by quartile (Q4 (most deprived): 2.11 (1.20–3.77) p  = 0.011)) and greater than expected hospitalisations due to alcohol per SIMD data zone (1.96 (1.28–3.00) p  = 0.002)). Conclusions SIMD as an aggregate measure of deprivation was not predictive of mortality in our cohort when other exposure measures were accounted for. However, we identified a two-fold increased risk of mortality in patients residing in areas with greater income-deprivation and/or number of hospitalisations due to alcohol. In areas where aggregate measures fail to capture pockets of deprivation, exploring the impact of specific SIMD indicators may be helpful in targeting resources to residents at risk of poorer outcomes from Covid-19.

Background Accurate diagnosis in patients with suspected coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is essential to guide treatment and limit spread of the virus. The combined nasal and throat swab is used widely, but its diagnostic performance is uncertain. Methods In a prospective, multi-centre, cohort study conducted in secondary and tertiary care hospitals in Scotland, we evaluated the combined nasal and throat swab with reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) in consecutive patients admitted to hospital with suspected COVID-19. Diagnostic performance of the index and serial tests was evaluated for a primary outcome of confirmed or probable COVID-19, and a secondary outcome of confirmed COVID-19 on serial testing. The diagnosis was adjudicated by a panel, who recorded clinical, laboratory and radiological features blinded to the test results. Results We enrolled 1368 consecutive patients (median age 68 [interquartile range, IQR 53–80] years, 47% women) who underwent a total of 3822 tests (median 2 [IQR 1–3] tests per patient). The primary outcome occurred in 36% (496/1368), of whom 65% (323/496) and 35% (173/496) had confirmed and probable COVID-19, respectively. The index test was positive in 255/496 (51%) patients with the primary outcome, giving a sensitivity and specificity of 51.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] 48.8 to 54.1%) and 99.5% (95% CI 99.0 to 99.8%). Sensitivity increased in those undergoing 2, 3 or 4 tests to 60.1% (95% CI 56.7 to 63.4%), 68.3% (95% CI 64.0 to 72.3%) and 77.6% (95% CI 72.7 to 81.9%), respectively. The sensitivity of the index test was 78.9% (95% CI 74.4 to 83.2%) for the secondary outcome of confirmed COVID-19 on serial testing. Conclusions In patients admitted to hospital, a single combined nasal and throat swab with RT-PCR for SARS-CoV-2 has excellent specificity, but limited diagnostic sensitivity for COVID-19. Diagnostic performance is significantly improved by repeated testing.

BackgroundDual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) has important implications for clinical outcomes in coronary disease. However, the optimal DAPT duration remains uncertain.Methods and resultsWe searched four major databases for randomised controlled trials comparing long-term (≥12 months) with short-term (≤6 months) or shorter (≤3 months) DAPT in patients with coronary syndromes. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes were any bleeding and major bleeding (safety), cardiac death, myocardial infarction, stent thrombosis, revascularisation and stroke (efficacy). Nineteen randomised controlled trials (n=60 111) satisfied inclusion criteria, 8 assessed ≤3 months DAPT. Compared with long-term (≥12 months), short-term DAPT (≤6 months) was associated with a trend towards reduced all-cause mortality (RR: 0.90, 95% CI: 0.80 to 1.01) and significant bleeding reduction (RR: 0.68, 95% CI: 0.55 to 0.83 and RR: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.56 to 0.77 for major and any bleeding, respectively). There were no significant differences in efficacy outcomes. These associations persisted in sensitivity analysis comparing shorter duration DAPT (≤3 months) to long-term DAPT (≥12 months) for all-cause mortality (RR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.79 to 1.05). In subgroup analysis, short-term DAPT was associated with lower risk of bleeding in patients with acute or chronic coronary syndromes (RR: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.54 to 0.81 and RR: 0.53, 95% CI: 0.33 to 0.65, respectively), but higher risk of stent thrombosis in acute coronary syndrome (RR: 1.49, 95% CI: 1.02 to 2.17 vs RR: 1.25, 95% CI 0.44 to 3.58).ConclusionOur meta-analysis suggests that short (≤6 months) and shorter (≤3 months) durations DAPT are associated with lower risk of bleeding, equivalent efficacy and a trend towards lower all-cause mortality irrespective of coronary artery disease stability.

Balloon aortic valvuloplasty (BAV) remains a treatment option for the selected patients with severe aortic stenosis. We examined clinical outcomes and predictors of prognosis in patients undergoing BAV for severe aortic stenosis. We identified all patients undergoing BAV from January 2010 to March 2018 (n=167) at a single transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) centre. Patient demographics, investigations, subsequent interventions and clinical outcomes were obtained from electronic health records. Patients undergoing BAV were elderly (median age 80, IQR 73-86 years) and half (n=87, 52%) were male. All-cause mortality at 30 days and 12 months was 11% and 43%, respectively. Reduce ejection fraction (EF 30%-50%: HR 1.76, 95% CI 1.05 to 2.94; EF <30%: HR 1.90, 95% CI 1.12 to 3.20) was the only independent predictor at baseline of overall mortality. Median survival was 212 (IQR 54-490) days from the index procedure. Mortality at 1 year was lowest in patients who subsequently underwent TAVI or SAVR but high among those who had no further interventions or those who had a repeat BAV (14%, 19%, 60%, 89% respectively, log-rank p<0.001). BAV as a bridge to definitive aortic valve intervention in carefully selected patients offers acceptable outcomes. These contemporary observational findings demonstrate the ongoing potential utility of BAV in the TAVI era.

Coronary embolism is an uncommon cause of acute myocardial infarction, which can have a similar clinical presentation to a plaque rupture event with acute onset of ischaemic symptoms, ST segment elevation on electrocardiogram (ECG) and significant elevation in cardiac troponin, requiring immediate intervention. We report the case of a middle-aged female with a background history of previous non-ST elevation myocardial infarction, bicuspid aortic valve with severe stenosis and metastatic breast cancer. The patient underwent emergency coronary angiography following acute onset central chest pain and evidence of anterior ST segment elevation on ambulance 12-lead ECG. The procedure revealed complete occlusion of the mid left anterior descending coronary artery with immediate flow restoration following embolus aspiration and subsequent normal appearance of the left anterior descending coronary artery. Gross examination of the aspirated specimen resembled a calcified hard lump, which was further confirmed on microscopic examination revealing calcified fibrous tissue most likely an embolus from the calcified bicuspid aortic valve. The patient had evidence of near transmural myocardial infarction in the distribution of the left anterior descending coronary on cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). She made full recovery and was discharged on short-term dual antiplatelet therapy followed by lifelong aspirin and further assessment for aortic stenosis management.

Computed tomography coronary angiograms (CTCA) are increasingly utilised in evaluating coronary artery disease (CAD). Applying computational fluid dynamics to CTCA allows for the non-invasive measurement of fractional flow reserve (ctFFR), potentially reducing the need for invasive coronary angiograms (ICA). This audit evaluates the clinical impact and cost implications of ctFFR technology licensed from HeartFlow at Borders General Hospital over a 15-month period.Methods Data were collected retrospectively for all patients undergoing CTCA and ctFFR for angina between March 2022 and June 2023 using electronic patient records. Patients were categorised based on CTCA findings as positive, negative, or indeterminate for significant coronary stenosis. ctFFR results were recorded as positive if the value dropped below 0.8 with a corresponding lesion. Estimated cost savings were calculated based on the NHS 2020–21 tariff for ICA (£2369).ResultsOf 97 patients, 83 met the inclusion criteria (mean age 60.7 ± 9.7; 51.8% female). CTCA results were positive in 22 (26.5%), negative in 29 (34.9%), and indeterminate in 32 patients (38.6%). CTFFR demonstrated a lesion-specific drop in 19 (22.9%) patients. Of the 55 patients with a positive or indeterminate CTCA result, ctFFR demonstrated no lesion-specific drop-off in 38 (47.8%). In the 29 patients with a negative CTCA, CTFFR demonstrated a lesion-specific drop-off in 3 (10.3%). The estimated savings achieved by avoiding ICAs in patients with a negative ctFFR was £35,535.ConclusionThe use of ctFFR with CTCA improves diagnostic accuracy and reduces unnecessary ICAs yielding substantial cost savings, as well as being a valuable learning tool.

COVID-19 has changed our way of life since it was first identified in December of 2019. While our understanding of the manifestations and outcomes of the immediate acute illness has improved, we are still learning about the medium to long-term impact of this diagnosis on patients’ health. For some time, it has been suggested that COVID-19 may be associated with incident cardiovascular events such as venous thromboembolism, stroke and myocardial infarction.1 However, the absolute risk of these events and whether an excess risk is present are challenging to determine without a contemporary reference population. This is particularly problematic in the midst of a global pandemic.