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Recreational fishing is a pillar of the multibillion-dollar tourism sector in the Caribbean, supporting economic development and community livelihoods. However, as climate change drives increased habitat degradation, key recreational target species may experience declines. To effectively prioritize adaptation and mitigation efforts it is critical to project climate change impacts on recreational species and the communities that depend on them. We conducted a comprehensive climate vulnerability assessment (CVA) for three recreationally important tidal flats species in Belize and The Bahamas: bonefish ( Albula vulpes ), tarpon ( Megalops atlanticus ), and permit ( Trachinotus falcatus ). Species vulnerability was assessed by coupling 1) a research-based CVA to evaluate the sensitivity and exposure of species to climate impacts with 2) a participatory workshop involving 17 fishing guides, resource managers, and science and policy experts working in fisheries systems in Belize and/or The Bahamas. The workshop elicited local expert knowledge to resolve and contextualize CVA scoring and to identify strategies to increase climate resilience. According to the research-based CVA, key climate factors in the Caribbean are expected to see a ‘very high’ magnitude of change by 2050. All three species exhibit ‘very high’ vulnerability to these changes based on life history traits and reliance on nearshore habitats that are exposed to rapid temperature increases and storm damage. The expert stakeholder group confirmed a ‘very high’ magnitude of expected climate impacts in the Caribbean region, to which bonefish, the most valuable species, is likely to have a ‘very high’ vulnerability. However, stakeholders perceived tarpon and permit to be less vulnerable to these impacts than the CVA predicted, based on “on the water” observations of their habitat flexibility and resilience to disturbance. The group identified strategies at the individual, community, national, and international levels to enhance climate resilience in the recreational fishing sector. Our work highlights how participatory CVA processes can support a stronger understanding of species’ vulnerability while building capacity and collaboration to increase climate change readiness.

Marine protected areas or replenishment zones have become one of the more popular tools within an ecosystem-based management approach aimed at balancing environmental health with socio-economic needs. We examined changes in populations of an ecologically representative suite of focal species, including ones important to local small-scale fisheries, over a 7 yr period using both independent visual surveys and fisheries-dependent data. Most small-scale fisheries targets showed increases in density, biomass, or size within the replenishment zone and stable or increasing catch rates beyond replenishment zone boundaries. Lower trophic level, high recruiting species of more limited movement such as parrotfish, conch, and lobster appeared to respond most clearly to protection, while higher trophic level, late maturing, and more widely dispersing snappers and groupers generally displayed more limited recovery. Patterns of mid-trophic level hogfish and queen triggerfish appeared to be linked to the availability of appropriate prey, i.e. conch and urchins respectively, with increasing angelfish catch per unit effort appearing to replace large parrotfish since the ban on harvesting herbivorous fish in 2009. Patterns of triggerfish and angelfish may also be linked to benthic cover, given their preferences for urchins and sponges, respectively. These results address the core management objectives for Glover’s Reef Marine Reserve, Belize, to ensure sustainability of its resources and enhance economic benefits from fisheries. Our study highlights the importance of using other fisheries conservation strategies (size limits, closed seasons) in conjunction with replenishment zones, as well as direct consultation with resource users in order to maximize benefits.

Somatic growth dynamics are an integrated response to environmental conditions. Hawksbill sea turtles ( Eretmochelys imbricata ) are long‐lived, major consumers in coral reef habitats that move over broad geographic areas (hundreds to thousands of kilometers). We evaluated spatio‐temporal effects on hawksbill growth dynamics over a 33‐yr period and 24 study sites throughout the West Atlantic and explored relationships between growth dynamics and climate indices. We compiled the largest ever data set on somatic growth rates for hawksbills – 3541 growth increments from 1980 to 2013. Using generalized additive mixed model analyses, we evaluated 10 covariates, including spatial and temporal variation, that could affect growth rates. Growth rates throughout the region responded similarly over space and time. The lack of a spatial effect or spatio‐temporal interaction and the very strong temporal effect reveal that growth rates in West Atlantic hawksbills are likely driven by region‐wide forces. Between 1997 and 2013, mean growth rates declined significantly and steadily by 18%. Regional climate indices have significant relationships with annual growth rates with 0‐ or 1‐yr lags: positive with the Multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation Index (correlation = 0.99) and negative with Caribbean sea surface temperature (correlation = −0.85). Declines in growth rates between 1997 and 2013 throughout the West Atlantic most likely resulted from warming waters through indirect negative effects on foraging resources of hawksbills. These climatic influences are complex. With increasing temperatures, trajectories of decline of coral cover and availability in reef habitats of major prey species of hawksbills are not parallel. Knowledge of how choice of foraging habitats, prey selection, and prey abundance are affected by warming water temperatures is needed to understand how climate change will affect productivity of consumers that live in association with coral reefs.