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While changes in the abundance of keystone predators can have cascading effects resulting in regime shifts, the role of mesopredators in these processes remains underexplored. We conducted annual surveys of rocky reef communities that varied in the recovery of a keystone predator (sea otter, Enhydra lutris) and the mass mortality of a mesopredator (sunflower sea star, Pycnopodia helianthoides) due to an infectious wasting disease. By fitting a population model to empirical data, we show that sea otters had the greatest impact on the mortality of large sea urchins, but that Pycnopodia decline corresponded to a 311% increase in medium urchins and a 30% decline in kelp densities. Our results reveal that predator complementarity in size-selective prey consumption strengthens top-down control on urchins, affecting the resilience of alternative reef states by reinforcing the resilience of kelp forests and eroding the resilience of urchin barrens. We reveal previously underappreciated species interactions within a ‘classic’ trophic cascade and regime shift, highlighting the critical role of middle-level predators in mediating rocky reef state transitions.

Because of the complexity and speed of environmental, climatic, and socio-political change in coastal marine social-ecological systems, there is significant academic and applied interest in assessing and fostering the adaptive capacity of coastal communities. Adaptive capacity refers to the latent ability of a system to respond proactively and positively to stressors or opportunities. A variety of qualitative, quantitative, and participatory approaches have been developed and applied to understand and assess adaptive capacity, each with different benefits, drawbacks, insights, and implications. Drawing on case studies of coastal communities from around the globe, we describe and compare 11 approaches that are often used to study adaptive capacity of social and ecological systems in the face of social, environmental, and climatic change. We synthesize lessons from a series of case studies to present important considerations to frame research and to choose an assessment approach, key challenges to analyze adaptive capacity in linked social-ecological systems, and good practices to link results to action to foster adaptive capacity. We suggest that more attention be given to integrated social-ecological assessments and that greater effort be placed on evaluation and monitoring of adaptive capacity over time and across scales. Overall, although sustainability science holds a promise of providing solutions to real world problems, we found that too few assessments seem to lead to tangible outcomes or actions to foster adaptive capacity in social-ecological systems.

Understanding how trophic dynamics drive variation in biodiversity is essential for predicting the outcomes of trophic downgrading across the world’s ecosystems. However, assessing the biodiversity of morphologically cryptic lineages can be problematic, yet may be crucial to understanding ecological patterns. Shifts in keystone predation that favor increases in herbivore abundance tend to have negative consequences for the biodiversity of primary producers. However, in nearshore ecosystems, coralline algal cover increases when herbivory is intense, suggesting that corallines may uniquely benefit from trophic downgrading. Because many coralline algal species are morphologically cryptic and their diversity has been globally underestimated, increasing the resolution at which we distinguish species could dramatically alter our conclusions about the consequences of trophic dynamics for this group. In this study, we used DNA barcoding to compare the diversity and composition of cryptic coralline algal assemblages at sites that differ in urchin biomass and keystone predation by sea otters. We show that while coralline cover is greater in urchin-dominated sites (or “barrens”), which are subject to intense grazing, coralline assemblages in these urchin barrens are significantly less diverse than in kelp forests and are dominated by only 1 or 2 species. These findings clarify how food web structure relates to coralline community composition and reconcile patterns of total coralline cover with the widely documented pattern that keystone predation promotes biodiversity. Shifts in coralline diversity and distribution associated with transitions from kelp forests to urchin barrens could have ecosystem-level effects that would be missed by ignoring cryptic species’ identities.

Seaweed farming is widely promoted as an approach to mitigating climate change despite limited data on carbon removal pathways and uncertainty around benefits and risks at operational scales. We explored the feasibility of climate change mitigation from seaweed farming by constructing five scenarios spanning a range of industry development in coastal British Columbia, Canada, a temperate region identified as highly suitable for seaweed farming. Depending on growth rates and the fate of farmed seaweed, our scenarios sequestered or avoided between 0.20 and 8.2 Tg CO 2 e year −1 , equivalent to 0.3% and 13% of annual greenhouse gas emissions in BC, respectively. Realisation of climate benefits required seaweed-based products to replace existing, more emissions-intensive products, as marine sequestration was relatively inefficient. Such products were also key to reducing the monetary cost of climate benefits, with product values exceeding production costs in only one of the scenarios we examined. However, model estimates have large uncertainties dominated by seaweed production and emissions avoided, making these key priorities for future research. Our results show that seaweed farming could make an economically feasible contribute to Canada’s climate goals if markets for value-added seaweed based products are developed. Moreover, our model demonstrates the possibility for farmers, regulators, and researchers to accurately quantify the climate benefits of seaweed farming in their regional contexts.

Climate change will amplify stress on marine systems already challenged by conflicts and inequities relating to fisheries access, management decisions, and ocean uses across sectors. Understanding how those most connected to fisheries perceive the risks associated with climate change is critical to developing effective responses and establishing management priorities. Adaptation planning efforts may be hindered by perceptions of unequal or unfair distribution of resources and the processes in place to manage them. In contrast, adaptation planning that is more inclusive, transparent, and addresses social dimensions and perceptions of fisheries is more likely to garner support from fishers and fishing communities broadly. We elicited fisher perceptions of climate change impacts on fisheries, and responses to these impacts, through an online survey of commercial fishers in Canada’s Pacific region. The survey highlights substantial concern for climate change, the impacts it will have on fishers’ livelihoods and well-being, and some of the key challenges that may interfere with the ability of fishers and fisheries management to adapt. We frame the findings of the survey drawing from concepts of social justice, focusing on distributive and procedural justice, as necessary considerations, and context for climate change adaptation planning. Developing plans and processes to respond to climate change impacts on fisheries requires not only understanding ecological impacts and challenges, but also the social and institutional considerations that could help or hinder efforts to respond effectively and equitably to a changing ocean.

Rapid system‐wide changes triggered by predators can pose considerable challenges to people. In the Northeast Pacific, the recovery of sea otters Enhydra lutris following their extirpation due to the 18th and 19th century fur trade is driving a social‐ecological regime shift with profound implications. While the ecological consequences of this shift are well documented, very little research has examined the conditions that enable or constrain people's ability to adapt to the social, economic and cultural changes that transpire. Through a collaborative partnership and workshops with Indigenous knowledge holders spanning Alaska to British Columbia, along with quantitative and qualitative interviews in two Indigenous communities among the first to experience sea otter recovery, we examined people's perceptions of the social‐ecological conditions that affect their ability to adapt to these changes. We found that communities differed in their relative rankings of adaptation‐enabling conditions; however, the following four broad strategies were perceived as critical to improving coexistence with sea otters: (a) strengthening Indigenous governance and decision‐making authority; (b) promoting adaptive co‐management; (c) weaving Indigenous knowledge and Western science into management plans and (d) establishing learning platforms. Both communities also identified that increased livelihood options and financial assistance would not compensate for lost food security. Differences in enabling conditions and attitudes towards sea otters within and between communities can be attributed to the social‐ecological and political context in which sea otter recovery occurs. Our study suggests that enhancing Indigenous peoples' ability to adapt to predator‐induced regime shifts will require a transformation in current resource governance systems if we are to navigate towards an ecologically sustainable and socially just operating space. Overall, this work highlights the need for more Indigenous authority, knowledge and leadership in addressing predator‐induced regime shifts in coupled human‐ocean systems. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article

While changes in the abundance of keystone predators can have cascading effects resulting in regime shifts, the role of mesopredators in these processes remains underexplored. We conducted annual surveys of rocky reef communities that varied in the recovery of a keystone predator (sea otter, Enhydra lutris) and the mass mortality of a mesopredator (sunflower sea star, Pycnopodia helianthoides) due to an infectious wasting disease. By fitting a population model to empirical data, we show that sea otters had the greatest impact on the mortality of large sea urchins, but that Pycnopodia decline corresponded to a 311% increase in medium urchins and a 30% decline in kelp densities. Our results reveal that predator complementarity in size-selective prey consumption strengthens top-down control on urchins, affecting the resilience of alternative reef states by reinforcing the resilience of kelp forests and eroding the resilience of urchin barrens. We reveal previously underappreciated species interactions within a ‘classic’ trophic cascade and regime shift, highlighting the critical role of middle-level predators in mediating rocky reef state transitions.

Seaweed farming is widely promoted as an approach to mitigating climate change despite limited data on carbon removal pathways and uncertainty around benefits and risks at operational scales. We explored the feasibility of seaweed farms to contribute to atmospheric CO2 reduction in coastal British Columbia, Canada, a region identified as highly suitable for seaweed farming. Using a place-based, quantitative model, we examined five scenarios spanning a range of industry development. Our intermediate growth scenario sequestered or avoided 0.20 Tg CO2e / year, while our most ambitious scenario (with more cultivation and higher production rates) yielded a reduction of 8.2 Tg CO2e /year, equivalent to 0.3% and 13% of annual greenhouse gas emissions in BC, respectively. Across all scenarios, climate benefits depended on seaweed-based products replacing more emissions-intensive products. Marine sequestration was relatively inefficient in comparison, although production rates and avoided emissions are key uncertainties prioritized for future research. Our results show how seaweed farming could contribute to Canada’s climate goals, and our model illustrates how farmers, regulators, and researchers could accurately quantify the climate benefits of seaweed farming in local contexts.

Zechmeister et al. (2009) surveyed 38 nearby M dwarfs from March 2000 to March 2007 with VLT2 and the UVES spectrometer. This data has recently been reanalyzed (Butler et al. 2019), yielding a significant improvement in the Doppler velocity precision. Spurred by this, we have combined the UVES data with velocity sets from HARPS, Magellan/PFS, and Keck/HIRES. Sixteen planet candidates have been uncovered orbiting nine M dwarfs. Five of them are new planets corresponding to radial velocity signals, which are not sensitive to the choice of noise models and are identified in multiple data sets over various timespans. Eight candidate planets require additional observation to be confirmed. We also confirm three previously reported planets. Among the new planets, GJ 180 d and GJ 229A c are super-Earths located in the conservative habitable zones of their host stars. We investigate their dynamical stability using the Monte Carlo approach and find both planetary orbits are robust to the gravitational perturbations of the companion planets. Due to their proximity to the Sun, the angular separation between the host stars and the potentially habitable planets in these two systems is 25 and 59 mas, respectively. They are thus good candidates for future direct imaging by JWST and E-ELT. In addition we find GJ 433 c, a cold super-Neptune belonging to an unexplored population of Neptune-like planets. With a separation of 0.5 as from its host star, GJ 433 c is probably the first realistic candidate for direct imaging of cold Neptunes. A comprehensive survey of these planets is important for the studies of planet formation.