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ObjectivesThe aim of this study was to conduct a rapid systematic review and meta-analysis of estimates of the incubation period of COVID-19.DesignRapid systematic review and meta-analysis of observational research.SettingInternational studies on incubation period of COVID-19.ParticipantsSearches were carried out in PubMed, Google Scholar, Embase, Cochrane Library as well as the preprint servers MedRxiv and BioRxiv. Studies were selected for meta-analysis if they reported either the parameters and CIs of the distributions fit to the data, or sufficient information to facilitate calculation of those values. After initial eligibility screening, 24 studies were selected for initial review, nine of these were shortlisted for meta-analysis. Final estimates are from meta-analysis of eight studies.Primary outcome measuresParameters of a lognormal distribution of incubation periods.ResultsThe incubation period distribution may be modelled with a lognormal distribution with pooled mu and sigma parameters (95% CIs) of 1.63 (95% CI 1.51 to 1.75) and 0.50 (95% CI 0.46 to 0.55), respectively. The corresponding mean (95% CIs) was 5.8 (95% CI 5.0 to 6.7) days. It should be noted that uncertainty increases towards the tail of the distribution: the pooled parameter estimates (95% CIs) resulted in a median incubation period of 5.1 (95% CI 4.5 to 5.8) days, whereas the 95th percentile was 11.7 (95% CI 9.7 to 14.2) days.ConclusionsThe choice of which parameter values are adopted will depend on how the information is used, the associated risks and the perceived consequences of decisions to be taken. These recommendations will need to be revisited once further relevant information becomes available. Accordingly, we present an R Shiny app that facilitates updating these estimates as new data become available.

ObjectivesOur objective was to review the literature on the inferred duration of the infectious period of COVID-19, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus, and provide an overview of the variation depending on the methodological approach.DesignRapid scoping review. Literature review with fixed search terms, up to 1 April 2020. Central tendency and variation of the parameter estimates for infectious period in (A) asymptomatic and (B) symptomatic cases from (1) virological studies (repeated testing), (2) tracing studies and (3) modelling studies were gathered. Narrative review of viral dynamics.Information sourcesSearch strategies developed and the following searched: PubMed, Google Scholar, MedRxiv and BioRxiv. Additionally, the Health Information Quality Authority (Ireland) viral load synthesis was used, which screened literature from PubMed, Embase, ScienceDirect, NHS evidence, Cochrane, medRxiv and bioRxiv, and HRB open databases.ResultsThere was substantial variation in the estimates, and how infectious period was inferred. One study provided approximate median infectious period for asymptomatic cases of 6.5–9.5 days. Median presymptomatic infectious period across studies varied over <1–4 days. Estimated mean time from symptom onset to two negative RT-PCR tests was 13.4 days (95% CI 10.9 to 15.8) but was shorter when studies included children or less severe cases. Estimated mean duration from symptom onset to hospital discharge or death (potential maximal infectious period) was 18.1 days (95% CI 15.1 to 21.0); time to discharge was on average 4 days shorter than time to death. Viral dynamic data and model infectious parameters were often shorter than repeated diagnostic data.ConclusionsThere are limitations of inferring infectiousness from repeated diagnosis, viral loads and viral replication data alone and also potential patient recall bias relevant to estimating exposure and symptom onset times. Despite this, available data provide a preliminary evidence base to inform models of central tendency for key parameters and variation for exploring parameter space and sensitivity analysis.

This project, titled ‘Listeria Control,’ aimed to advance expertise across Europe in applying predictive microbiology to shelf‐life studies of Listeria monocytogenes in ready‐to‐eat (RTE) products. By increasing the capacity of the two participating organisations in predictive microbiology, this initiative strengthens Europe's overall ability to manage and mitigate the risk of L. monocytogenes in RTE foods. The project's first experimental phase involved experimental trials that examined the growth of L. monocytogenes under both constant and dynamic temperature conditions. Subsequent analysis fitted existing primary growth models to the constant temperature growth data. The resulting models were then employed to predict L. monocytogenes growth under fluctuating temperature scenarios. Given the limited reported research on modelling L. monocytogenes growth in dynamic environments, this work represents a significant contribution to this emerging field. Furthermore, this fellowship facilitated collaboration between IZS‐Teramo and UCD, leading to enhanced and harmonised expertise in experimental and predictive techniques for L. monocytogenes shelf‐life studies – a partnership that both organisations are committed to continuing beyond the fellowship's duration.

ObjectivesThe aim of this study was to determine the relative infectiousness of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infected persons compared with symptomatic individuals based on a scoping review of available literature.DesignRapid scoping review of peer-reviewed literature from 1 January to 5 December 2020 using the LitCovid database and the Cochrane library.SettingInternational studies on the infectiousness of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2.ParticipantsStudies were selected for inclusion if they defined asymptomatics as a separate cohort distinct from presymptomatics and if they provided a quantitative measure of the infectiousness of asymptomatics relative to symptomatics.Primary outcome measuresPCR result (PCR studies), the rate of infection (mathematical modelling studies) and secondary attack rate (contact tracing studies) - in each case from asymptomatic in comparison with symptomatic individuals.ResultsThere are only a limited number of published studies that report estimates of relative infectiousness of asymptomatic compared with symptomatic individuals. 12 studies were included after the screening process. Significant differences exist in the definition of infectiousness. PCR studies in general show no difference in shedding levels between symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals; however, the number of study subjects is generally limited. Two modelling studies estimate relative infectiousness to be 0.43 and 0.57, but both of these were more reflective of the infectiousness of undocumented rather than asymptomatic cases. The results from contact tracing studies include estimates of relative infectiousness of 0, but with insufficient evidence to conclude that it is significantly different from 1.ConclusionsThere is considerable heterogeneity in estimates of relative infectiousness highlighting the need for further investigation of this important parameter. It is not possible to provide any conclusive estimate of relative infectiousness, as the estimates from the reviewed studies varied between 0 and 1.

The powdered formula market is large and growing, with sales and manufacturing increasing by 120% between 2012 and 2021. With this growing market, there must come an increasing emphasis on maintaining a high standard of hygiene to ensure a safe product. In particular, Cronobacter species pose a risk to public health through their potential to cause severe illness in susceptible infants who consume contaminated powdered infant formula (PIF). Assessment of this risk is dependent on determining prevalence in PIF-producing factories, which can be challenging to measure with the heterogeneity observed in the design of built process facilities. There is also a potential risk of bacterial growth occurring during rehydration, given the observed persistence of Cronobacter in desiccated conditions. In addition, novel detection methods are emerging to effectively track and monitor Cronobacter species across the food chain. This review will explore the different vehicles that lead to Cronobacter species’ environmental persistence in the food production environment, as well as their pathogenicity, detection methods and the regulatory framework surrounding PIF manufacturing that ensures a safe product for the global consumer.

ObjectiveTo estimate the proportion of presymptomatic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection that can occur, and the timing of transmission relative to symptom onset.Setting/designSecondary analysis of international published data.Data sourcesMeta-analysis of COVID-19 incubation period and a rapid review of serial interval and generation time, which are published separately.ParticipantsData from China, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Italy, Republic of Korea, Singapore and Vietnam from December 2019 to May 2020.MethodsSimulations were generated of incubation period and of serial interval or generation time. From these, transmission times relative to symptom onset, and the proportion of presymptomatic transmission, were estimated.Outcome measuresTransmission time of SARS-CoV-2 relative to symptom onset and proportion of presymptomatic transmission.ResultsBased on 18 serial interval/generation time estimates from 15 papers, mean transmission time relative to symptom onset ranged from −2.6 (95% CI −3.0 to –2.1) days before infector symptom onset to 1.4 (95% CI 1.0 to 1.8) days after symptom onset. The proportion of presymptomatic transmission ranged from 45.9% (95% CI 42.9% to 49.0%) to 69.1% (95% CI 66.2% to 71.9%).ConclusionsThere is substantial potential for presymptomatic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 across a range of different contexts. This highlights the need for rapid case detection, contact tracing and quarantine. The transmission patterns that we report reflect the combination of biological infectiousness and transmission opportunities which vary according to context.

Sanitisers are widely used in cleaning food-processing facilities, but their continued use may cause an increased resistance of pathogenic bacteria. Several genes have been attributed to the increased sanitiser resistance ability of L. monocytogenes. This study determined the presence of sanitiser resistance genes in Irish-sourced L. monocytogenes isolates and explored the association with phenotypic sanitiser resistance. The presence of three genes associated with sanitiser resistance and a three-gene cassette (mdrL, qacH, emrE, bcrABC) were determined in 150 L. monocytogenes isolates collected from Irish food-processing facilities. A total of 23 isolates contained bcrABC, 42 isolates contained qacH, one isolate contained emrE, and all isolates contained mdrL. Additionally, 47 isolates were selected and grouped according to the number and type of resistance genes, and the minimal inhibitory concentration (MIC) of these isolates for benzalkonium chloride (BAC) was determined experimentally using the broth microdilution method. The BAC resistance of the strain carrying the bcrABC gene cassette was significantly higher than that of strains lacking the gene cassette, and the BAC resistance of the strain carrying the qacH gene was significantly higher than that of strains lacking the qacH gene (p < 0.05). Isolates harbouring both the qacH and bcrABC genes did not show higher BAC resistance. With respect to environmental factors, there was no significant difference in MIC values for isolates recovered from different processing facilities. In summary, this investigation highlights the prevalence of specific sanitiser resistance genes in L. monocytogenes isolates from Irish food-processing settings. While certain genes correlated with increased resistance to benzalkonium chloride, the combination of multiple genes did not necessarily amplify this resistance.

Cronobacter sakazakii is an opportunistic pathogen linked to outbreaks in powdered infant formula (PIF), primarily causing meningitis and necrotizing enterocolitis. Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) was used to characterize 18 C. sakazakii strains isolated from PIF (powdered infant formula) manufacturing plants (2011–2015). Sequence Type (ST) 1 was identified as the dominant sequence type, and all isolates carried virulence genes for chemotaxis, flagellar motion, and heat shock proteins. Multiple antibiotic resistance genes were detected, with all isolates exhibiting resistance to Cephalosporins and Tetracycline. A significant correlation existed between genotypic and phenotypic antibiotic resistance. The plasmid Col(pHAD28) was identified in the isolates recovered from the same PIF environment. All isolates harbored at least one intact phage. All the study isolates were compared with a collection of 96 publicly available C. sakazakii genomes to place these isolates within a global context. This comprehensive study, integrating phylogenetic, genomic, and epidemiological data, contributes to a deeper understanding of Cronobacter outbreaks. It provides valuable insights to enhance surveillance, prevention, and control strategies in food processing and public health contexts.

Background The serial interval is the period of time between the onset of symptoms in an infector and an infectee and is an important parameter which can impact on the estimation of the reproduction number. Whilst several parameters influencing infection transmission are expected to be consistent across populations, the serial interval can vary across and within populations over time. Therefore, local estimates are preferable for use in epidemiological models developed at a regional level. We used data collected as part of the national contact tracing process in Ireland to estimate the serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the Irish population, and to estimate the proportion of transmission events that occurred prior to the onset of symptoms. Results After data cleaning, the final dataset consisted of 471 infected close contacts from 471 primary cases. The median serial interval was 4 days, mean serial interval was 4.0 (95% confidence intervals 3.7, 4.3) days, whilst the 25th and 75th percentiles were 2 and 6 days respectively. We found that intervals were lower when the primary or secondary case were in the older age cohort (greater than 64 years). Simulating from an incubation period distribution from international literature, we estimated that 67% of transmission events had greater than 50% probability of occurring prior to the onset of symptoms in the infector. Conclusions Whilst our analysis was based on a large sample size, data were collected for the primary purpose of interrupting transmission chains. Similar to other studies estimating the serial interval, our analysis is restricted to transmission pairs where the infector is known with some degree of certainty. Such pairs may represent more intense contacts with infected individuals than might occur in the overall population. It is therefore possible that our analysis is biased towards shorter serial intervals than the overall population.

Background Contact tracing is conducted with the primary purpose of interrupting transmission from individuals who are likely to be infectious to others. Secondary analyses of data on the numbers of close contacts of confirmed cases could also: provide an early signal of increases in contact patterns that might precede larger than expected case numbers; evaluate the impact of government interventions on the number of contacts of confirmed cases; or provide data information on contact rates between age cohorts for the purpose of epidemiological modelling. We analysed data from 140,204 close contacts of 39,861 cases in Ireland from 1st May to 1st December 2020. Results Negative binomial regression models highlighted greater numbers of contacts within specific population demographics, after correcting for temporal associations. Separate segmented regression models of the number of cases over time and the average number of contacts per case indicated that a breakpoint indicating a rapid decrease in the number of contacts per case in October 2020 preceded a breakpoint indicating a reduction in the number of cases by 11 days. Conclusions We found that the number of contacts per infected case was overdispersed, the mean varied considerable over time and was temporally associated with government interventions. Analysis of the reported number of contacts per individual in contact tracing data may be a useful early indicator of changes in behaviour in response to, or indeed despite, government restrictions. This study provides useful information for triangulating assumptions regarding the contact mixing rates between different age cohorts for epidemiological modelling.