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This Timeline article charts progress in mathematical modelling of cancer over the past 50 years, highlighting the different theoretical approaches that have been used to dissect the disease and the insights that have arisen. This Timeline article charts progress in mathematical modelling of cancer over the past 50 years, highlighting the different theoretical approaches that have been used to dissect the disease and the insights that have arisen. Although most of this research was conducted with little involvement from experimentalists or clinicians, there are signs that the tide is turning and that increasing numbers of those involved in cancer research and mathematical modellers are recognizing that by working together they might more rapidly advance our understanding of cancer and improve its treatment.

We introduce a hybrid two-dimensional multiscale model of angiogenesis, the process by which endothelial cells (ECs) migrate from a pre-existing vascular bed in response to local environmental cues and cell-cell interactions, to create a new vascular network. Recent experimental studies have highlighted a central role of cell rearrangements in the formation of angiogenic networks. Our model accounts for this phenomenon via the heterogeneous response of ECs to their microenvironment. These cell rearrangements, in turn, dynamically remodel the local environment. The model reproduces characteristic features of angiogenic sprouting that include branching, chemotactic sensitivity, the brush border effect, and cell mixing. These properties, rather than being hardwired into the model, emerge naturally from the gene expression patterns of individual cells. After calibrating and validating our model against experimental data, we use it to predict how the structure of the vascular network changes as the baseline gene expression levels of the VEGF-Delta-Notch pathway, and the composition of the extracellular environment, vary. In order to investigate the impact of cell rearrangements on the vascular network structure, we introduce the mixing measure, a scalar metric that quantifies cell mixing as the vascular network grows. We calculate the mixing measure for the simulated vascular networks generated by ECs of different lineages (wild type cells and mutant cells with impaired expression of a specific receptor). Our results show that the time evolution of the mixing measure is directly correlated to the generic features of the vascular branching pattern, thus, supporting the hypothesis that cell rearrangements play an essential role in sprouting angiogenesis. Furthermore, we predict that lower cell rearrangement leads to an imbalance between branching and sprout elongation. Since the computation of this statistic requires only individual cell trajectories, it can be computed for networks generated in biological experiments, making it a potential biomarker for pathological angiogenesis.

Highly resolved spatial data of complex systems encode rich and nonlinear information. Quantification of heterogeneous and noisy data—often with outliers, artifacts, and mislabeled points—such as those from tissues, remains a challenge. The mathematical field that extracts information from the shape of data, topological data analysis (TDA), has expanded its capability for analyzing real-world datasets in recent years by extending theory, statistics, and computation. An extension to the standard theory to handle heterogeneous data is multiparameter persistent homology (MPH). Here we provide an application of MPH landscapes, a statistical tool with theoretical underpinnings. MPH landscapes, computed for (noisy) data from agent-based model simulations of immune cells infiltrating into a spheroid, are shown to surpass existing spatial statistics and one-parameter persistent homology. We then apply MPH landscapes to study immune cell location in digital histology images from head and neck cancer. We quantify intratumoral immune cells and find that infiltrating regulatory T cells have more prominent voids in their spatial patterns than macrophages. Finally, we consider how TDA can integrate and interrogate data of different types and scales, e.g., immune cell locations and regions with differing levels of oxygenation. This work highlights the power of MPH landscapes for quantifying, characterizing, and comparing features within the tumor microenvironment in synthetic and real datasets.

We introduce a new spatial statistic, the weighted pair correlation function (wPCF). The wPCF extends the existing pair correlation function (PCF) and cross-PCF to describe spatial relationships between points marked with combinations of discrete and continuous labels. We validate its use through application to a new agent-based model (ABM) which simulates interactions between macrophages and tumour cells. These interactions are influenced by the spatial positions of the cells and by macrophage phenotype, a continuous variable that ranges from anti-tumour to pro-tumour. By varying model parameters that regulate macrophage phenotype, we show that the ABM exhibits behaviours which resemble the ‘three Es of cancer immunoediting’: Equilibrium, Escape, and Elimination. We use the wPCF to analyse synthetic images generated by the ABM. We show that the wPCF generates a ‘human readable’ statistical summary of where macrophages with different phenotypes are located relative to both blood vessels and tumour cells. We also define a distinct ‘PCF signature’ that characterises each of the three Es of immunoediting, by combining wPCF measurements with the cross-PCF describing interactions between vessels and tumour cells. By applying dimension reduction techniques to this signature, we identify its key features and train a support vector machine classifier to distinguish between simulation outputs based on their PCF signature. This proof-of-concept study shows how multiple spatial statistics can be combined to analyse the complex spatial features that the ABM generates, and to partition them into interpretable groups. The intricate spatial features produced by the ABM are similar to those generated by state-of-the-art multiplex imaging techniques which distinguish the spatial distribution and intensity of multiple biomarkers in biological tissue regions. Applying methods such as the wPCF to multiplex imaging data would exploit the continuous variation in biomarker intensities and generate more detailed characterisation of the spatial and phenotypic heterogeneity in tissue samples.

Tumour spheroids are widely used as an in vitro assay for characterising the dynamics and response to treatment of different cancer cell lines. Their popularity is largely due to the reproducible manner in which spheroids grow: the diffusion of nutrients and oxygen from the surrounding culture medium, and their consumption by tumour cells, causes proliferation to be localised at the spheroid boundary. As the spheroid grows, cells at the spheroid centre may become hypoxic and die, forming a necrotic core. The pressure created by the localisation of tumour cell proliferation and death generates an cellular flow of tumour cells from the spheroid rim towards its core. Experiments by Dorie et al. showed that this flow causes inert microspheres to infiltrate into tumour spheroids via advection from the spheroid surface, by adding microbeads to the surface of tumour spheroids and observing the distribution over time. We use an off-lattice hybrid agent-based model to re-assess these experiments and establish the extent to which the spatio-temporal data generated by microspheres can be used to infer kinetic parameters associated with the tumour spheroids that they infiltrate. Variation in these parameters, such as the rate of tumour cell proliferation or sensitivity to hypoxia, can produce spheroids with similar bulk growth dynamics but differing internal compositions (the proportion of the tumour which is proliferating, hypoxic/quiescent and necrotic/nutrient-deficient). We use this model to show that the types of experiment conducted by Dorie et al. could be used to infer spheroid composition and parameters associated with tumour cell lines such as their sensitivity to hypoxia or average rate of proliferation, and note that these observations cannot be conducted within previous continuum models of microbead infiltration into tumour spheroids as they rely on resolving the trajectories of individual microbeads.

Angiogenesis is the process by which blood vessels form from pre-existing vessels. It plays a key role in many biological processes, including embryonic development and wound healing, and contributes to many diseases including cancer and rheumatoid arthritis. The structure of the resulting vessel networks determines their ability to deliver nutrients and remove waste products from biological tissues. Here we simulate the Anderson-Chaplain model of angiogenesis at different parameter values and quantify the vessel architectures of the resulting synthetic data. Specifically, we propose a topological data analysis (TDA) pipeline for systematic analysis of the model. TDA is a vibrant and relatively new field of computational mathematics for studying the shape of data. We compute topological and standard descriptors of model simulations generated by different parameter values. We show that TDA of model simulation data stratifies parameter space into regions with similar vessel morphology. The methodologies proposed here are widely applicable to other synthetic and experimental data including wound healing, development, and plant biology.

Arboviruses can emerge rapidly and cause explosive epidemics of severe disease. Some of the most epidemiologically important arboviruses, including dengue virus (DENV), Zika virus (ZIKV), Chikungunya (CHIKV) and yellow fever virus (YFV), are transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, most notably Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus . After a mosquito blood feeds on an infected host, virus enters the midgut and infects the midgut epithelium. The virus must then overcome a series of barriers before reaching the mosquito saliva and being transmitted to a new host. The virus must escape from the midgut (known as the midgut escape barrier; MEB), which is thought to be mediated by transient changes in the permeability of the midgut-surrounding basal lamina layer (BL) following blood feeding. Here, we present a mathematical model of the within-mosquito population dynamics of DENV (as a model system for mosquito-borne viruses more generally) that includes the interaction of the midgut and BL which can account for the MEB. Our results indicate a dose-dependency of midgut establishment of infection as well as rate of escape from the midgut: collectively, these suggest that the extrinsic incubation period (EIP)—the time taken for DENV virus to be transmissible after infection—is shortened when mosquitoes imbibe more virus. Additionally, our experimental data indicate that multiple blood feeding events, which more closely mimic mosquito-feeding behavior in the wild, can hasten the course of infections, and our model predicts that this effect is sensitive to the amount of virus imbibed. Our model indicates that mutations to the virus which impact its replication rate in the midgut could lead to even shorter EIPs when double-feeding occurs. Mechanistic models of within-vector viral infection dynamics provide a quantitative understanding of infection dynamics and could be used to evaluate novel interventions that target the mosquito stages of the infection.

The extracellular matrix (ECM) is a dynamic network structure that surrounds, supports, and influences cell behaviour. It facilitates cell communication and plays an important role in cell functions such as growth and migration. One way that cells interact with the ECM is via focal adhesions, which enable them to sense and respond to matrix mechanical properties and exert traction forces that deform it. This mechanical interplay between cells and the ECM, many aspects of which remain incompletely understood, involves the coordination of processes acting at different spatial scales and is highly influenced by the mechanical properties of the cells, ECM and focal adhesion components. To gain a better understanding of these mechanical interactions, we have developed a multiscale agent-based model based on a mechanical description of forces that simultaneously integrates the mechanosensitive regulation of focal adhesions, cytoskeleton dynamics, and ECM deformation. We use our model to quantify cell-cell communication mediated by ECM deformation and to show how this process depends on the mechanical properties of cells, the ECM fibres and the topology of the ECM network. In particular, we analyse the influence of ECM stiffness and cell contraction activity in the transmission of mechanical cues between cells and how the distinct timescales associated with different processes influence cell-ECM interaction. Our model simulations predict increased ECM deformation for stronger cell contraction and a sweet spot of ECM stiffness for the transmission of mechanical cues along its fibres. We also show how the network topology affects the ability of stiffer ECMs to transmit deformation and how it can induce cell detachment from the ECM. Finally, we demonstrate that integrating processes across different spatial and temporal scales is crucial for understanding how mechanical communication influences cell behaviour.

The Notch pathway plays a vital role in determining whether cells in the intestinal epithelium adopt a secretory or an absorptive phenotype. Cell fate specification is coordinated via Notch's interaction with the canonical Wnt pathway. Here, we propose a new mathematical model of the Notch and Wnt pathways, in which the Hes1 promoter acts as a hub for pathway crosstalk. Computational simulations of the model can assist in understanding how healthy intestinal tissue is maintained, and predict the likely consequences of biochemical knockouts upon cell fate selection processes. Chemical reaction network theory (CRNT) is a powerful, generalised framework which assesses the capacity of our model for monostability or multistability, by analysing properties of the underlying network structure without recourse to specific parameter values or functional forms for reaction rates. CRNT highlights the role of β-catenin in stabilising the Notch pathway and damping oscillations, demonstrating that Wnt-mediated actions on the Hes1 promoter can induce dynamic transitions in the Notch system, from multistability to monostability. Time-dependent model simulations of cell pairs reveal the stabilising influence of Wnt upon the Notch pathway, in which β-catenin- and Dsh-mediated action on the Hes1 promoter are key in shaping the subcellular dynamics. Where Notch-mediated transcription of Hes1 dominates, there is Notch oscillation and maintenance of fate flexibility; Wnt-mediated transcription of Hes1 favours bistability akin to cell fate selection. Cells could therefore regulate the proportion of Wnt- and Notch-mediated control of the Hes1 promoter to coordinate the timing of cell fate selection as they migrate through the intestinal epithelium and are subject to reduced Wnt stimuli. Furthermore, mutant cells characterised by hyperstimulation of the Wnt pathway may, through coupling with Notch, invert cell fate in neighbouring healthy cells, enabling an aberrant cell to maintain its neighbours in mitotically active states.

Oxygen heterogeneity in solid tumors is recognized as a limiting factor for therapeutic efficacy. This heterogeneity arises from the abnormal vascular structure of the tumor, but the precise mechanisms linking abnormal structure and compromised oxygen transport are only partially understood. In this paper, we investigate the role that red blood cell (RBC) transport plays in establishing oxygen heterogeneity in tumor tissue. We focus on heterogeneity driven by network effects, which are challenging to observe experimentally due to the reduced fields of view typically considered. Motivated by our findings of abnormal vascular patterns linked to deviations from current RBC transport theory, we calculated average vessel lengths L̄ and diameters d from tumor allografts of three cancer cell lines and observed a substantial reduction in the ratio λ = L̄/d̄ compared to physiological conditions. Mathematical modeling reveals that small values of the ratio λ (i.e.,λ < 6) can bias hematocrit distribution in tumor vascular networks and drive heterogeneous oxygenation of tumor tissue. Finally, we show an increase in the value of λ in tumor vascular networks following treatment with the antiangiogenic cancer agent DC101. Based on our findings, we propose λ as an effective way of monitoring the efficacy of antiangiogenic agents and as a proxy measure of perfusion and oxygenation in tumor tissue undergoing antiangiogenic treatment.