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Background We estimated the prevalence and mortality risks of preserved ratio impaired spirometry (PRISm) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in the US adult population. Methods We linked three waves of pre-bronchodilator spirometry data from the US National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (2007–2012) with the National Death Index. The analytic sample included adults ages 20 to 79 without missing data on age, sex, height, BMI, race/ethnicity, and smoking status. We defined COPD (GOLD 1, 2, and 3–4) and PRISm using FEV 1 /FVC cut points by the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD). We compared the prevalence of GOLD stages and PRISm by covariates across the three waves. We estimated adjusted all-cause and cause-specific mortality risks by COPD stage and PRISm using all three waves combined. Results Prevalence of COPD and PRISm from 2007–2012 ranged from 13.1%-14.3% and 9.6%-10.2%, respectively. We found significant differences in prevalence by sex, age, smoking status, and race/ethnicity. Males had higher rates of COPD regardless of stage, while females had higher rates of PRISm. COPD prevalence increased with age, but not PRISm, which was highest among middle-aged individuals. Compared to current and never smokers, former smokers showed lower rates of PRISm but higher rates of GOLD 1. COPD prevalence was highest among non-Hispanic White individuals, and PRISm was notably higher among non-Hispanic Black individuals (range 31.4%-37.4%). We found associations between PRISm and all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.3 95% CI: 1.9—2.9) and various cause-specific deaths (HR ranges: 2.0–5.3). We also found associations between GOLD 2 (HR: 2.1, 95% CI: 1.7–2.6) or higher (HR: 4.2, 95% CI: 2.7–6.5) and all-cause mortality. Cause-specific mortality risk varied within COPD stages but typically increased with higher GOLD stage. Conclusions The prevalence of COPD and PRISm remained stable from 2007–2012. Greater attention should be paid to the potential impacts of PRISm due to its higher prevalence in minority groups and its associations with mortality across various causes including cancer.

Background The United States (US) Food and Drug Administration (FDA), under the 2009 Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act, banned characterizing flavors in cigarettes; however, mentholated tobacco products were exempt. Since 2009, over 20 US jurisdictions and numerous countries around the world have extended this restriction to menthol. Currently, the FDA is reconsidering its position on a nation-wide menthol cigarette ban. However, the effects of such a ban remain unclear. We conducted a scoping review to explore the impact of a menthol cigarette ban on individual behaviors (initiation, cessation, and product switching), sales, and compliance. Methods We conducted a search of the international literature using PubMed, EBSCO, and Web of Science (to November 25, 2019). We retrieved articles relevant to the impacts of an implemented or hypothetical menthol ban. We also included studies of flavored tobacco product bans due to their potential relevance in gauging compliance and product substitutability. Results The search identified 493 articles, of which 24 were included. Studies examined the effects of implemented menthol bans ( n  = 6), hypothetical menthol bans ( n  = 12) and implemented flavor bans that exclude menthol ( n  = 6). Menthol bans were found to reduce sales and increase smoking cessation with only partial substitution for non-menthol cigarettes. US smokers’ reactions to a hypothetical ban indicate that about 25–64% would attempt to quit smoking and 11–46% would consider switching to other tobacco products, including 15–30% to e-cigarettes. Flavor ban studies indicate reductions in initiation of 6%. Ban compliance was high, but studies indicate that the tobacco industry and retailers have attempted to circumvent their impact via packaging changes and online sales. Conclusion Our review finds that extending the US cigarette flavor ban to menthol products would promote smoking cessation and reduce initiation. This evidence supports further action by the FDA towards mentholated tobacco products. However, few studies have been conducted in the vaping era.

Objectives Novel non-invasive machine learning algorithms may improve accuracy and reduce the need for biopsy when diagnosing idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of diagnostic strategies for IPF. Methods We developed a decision analytic model to evaluate diagnostic strategies for IPF in the United States. To assess the full spectrum of costs and benefits, we compared four interventions: a machine learning diagnostic algorithm, a genomic classifier, a biopsy-all strategy, and a treat-all strategy. The analysis was conducted from the health sector perspective with a lifetime horizon. The primary outcome measures were costs, Quality-Adjusted Life-Years (QALYs) gained, and Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs) based on the average of 10,000 probabilistic runs of the model. Results Compared to a biopsy-all strategy the machine learning algorithm and genomic classifer reduced diagnostic-related costs by $14,876 and $3,884, respectively. Use of the machine learning algorithm consistently reduced diagnostic costs. When including downstream treatment costs and benefits of anti-fibrotic treatment, the machine learning algorithm had an ICER of $331,069 per QALY gained compared to the biopsy-all strategy. The genomic classifier had a higher ICER of $390,043 per QALY gained, while the treat-all strategy had the highest ICER of $3,245,403 per QALY gained. Results were sensitive to changes in various input parameters including IPF treatment costs, sensitivity and specificity of novel screening tools, and the rate of additional diagnostics following inconclusive results. High treatment costs were found to drive overall cost regardless of the diagnostic method. As treatment costs lowered, the supplemental diagnostic tools became increasingly cost-effective. Conclusions Novel tools for diagnosing IPF reduced diagnostic costs, while overall incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were high due to treatment costs. New IPF diagnosis approaches may become more favourable with lower-cost treatments for IPF.

ObjectivesThe public health impact of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) is subject to complex transitions between NVP and cigarette use. To circumvent the data limitations and parameter instability challenges in modeling transitions, we indirectly estimate NVPs’ impact on smoking prevalence and resulting smoking-attributable deaths using the SimSmoke simulation model.MethodsCanada SimSmoke uses age- and sex-specific data on Canadian population, smoking prevalence and tobacco control policies. The model incorporates the impact of cigarette-oriented policies on smoking prevalence but not the explicit contribution of NVPs. The model was calibrated from 1999 to 2012, thereby projecting smoking prevalence before NVPs were widely used in Canada. The NVP impact on smoking prevalence is inferred by comparing projected 2012–2020 smoking trends absent NVPs to corresponding trends from two Canadian national surveys. We further distinguish impacts before and after NVPs became regulated in 2018 and more available.ResultsComparing 2012–2020 survey data of post-NVP to SimSmoke projected smoking prevalence trends, one survey indicated an NVP-related relative reduction of 15% (15%) for males (females) age 15+, but 32% (52%) for those ages 15–24. The other survey indicated a 14% (19%) NVP-related smoking reduction for ages 18+, but 42% (53%) for persons ages 18–24. Much of the gain occurred since Canada relaxed NVP restrictions. NVP-related 2012–2020 smoking reductions yielded 100,000 smoking-attributable deaths averted from 2012 to 2060.ConclusionSmoking prevalence in Canada, especially among younger adults, declined more rapidly once NVPs became readily available. The emergence of NVPs into the Canadian marketplace has not slowed the decline in smoking.

Objective To synthesize the outcomes of policy evaluations of flavoured electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) restrictions. Data sources PubMed, Scopus, Embase and Web of Science before May 3, 2022. Study selection Studies that report sales, behaviour, or compliance outcomes related to implemented or hypothetical ENDS flavour restrictions. Data extraction Restriction details, whether implemented or hypothetical, whether additional products were restricted, jurisdictional level, study locations, and outcomes classified by sales, behaviour, and compliance. Data synthesis We included 30 studies. Of those, 26 were conducted exclusively in the US, two in India, and two surveyed respondents in multiple countries, including the US. Twenty-one evaluated implemented restrictions, while nine considered hypothetical restrictions. Five studies evaluated product sales, 17 evaluated behaviour, and 10 evaluated compliance, with two studies reporting multiple outcomes. Two studies reported an increase and one a reduction in cigarette sales following restrictions, while three reported reductions in ENDS sales. Behavioural studies presented a mixed view of the impacts of regulations on ENDS and cigarette use. However, the use of disparate outcomes limits the comparability of studies. Studies of hypothetical restrictions suggest decreased ENDS use, increased cigarette use, and increased use of illicit markets. Studies of compliance with flavoured product restrictions that included ENDS found that 6–39% of stores sold restricted flavoured products post-restrictions. Online stores remain a potential source of restricted products. Conclusion Our findings highlight the need for additional research on the impacts of ENDS restrictions. Research should further evaluate the impact of restrictions on youth and adult use of nicotine and tobacco products in addition to the effects of restrictions in countries beyond the US to enable a robust consideration of the harm-benefit trade-off of restrictions.

Background With the increasing changes in tobacco use patterns, “current use” definition and the survey used may have important implications for monitoring population use trends. Methods Using three US surveys (2014/15 TUS-CPS, NHIS and PATH), we compared the adult (age 18+) prevalence of four product groups (cigarettes, other combustibles, smokeless tobacco, and e-cigarettes) based on three past 30-day frequency of use thresholds: 1+, 10+, and 25+ days. We also examined mutually exclusive single, dual, and polytobacco users as a percentage of total users for each product group. Results Regardless of threshold or product, the prevalence was higher in PATH followed by NHIS and TUS-CPS, in some cases by large percentages. The differences in cigarette and smokeless tobacco use prevalence in going from the 1+ to 10+ days and to the 25+ days threshold were minimal. Applying different frequency thresholds had the largest impact on other combustibles prevalence, with a 60% reduction with the 10+ days threshold and a 80% reduction with the 25+ days threshold, compared to the 1+ days threshold, followed by e-cigarettes with 40 and 60% reductions, respectively. The proportion of dual and polytobacco users decreased considerably when using the 10+ vs. the 1+ days threshold and polytobacco use was almost non-existent with the 25+ days threshold. Conclusion The estimated prevalence of each tobacco product use depends largely on the survey and frequency of use threshold adopted. The choice of survey and frequency threshold merits serious consideration when monitoring patterns of tobacco use.

Objective: This study aimed to measure changes in preferences regarding health-related quality of life associated with COVID-19 and RSV illness in children and adults from 2021 (during the COVID-19 pandemic) to 2023 (post-pandemic). Methods: A stated-preference survey elicited time trade-off (TTO) values from US adults in spring 2021 (n = 1014) and summer 2023 (n = 1186). Respondents were asked to indicate how much time they would hypothetically be willing to trade from the end of their life to avoid the effects of varying severities of COVID-19 and RSV illness for: (1) children; (2) parents of an ill child (family spillover); and (3) adults. Attitudes relating to COVID-19 vaccination and data on experience with COVID-19 or RSV illness were also collected. The primary outcome measure was the loss in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Changes in preferences over the time period from 2021 to 2023 were evaluated using regression analysis. Results: QALY losses increased with disease severity and were highest for Long COVID. Across all COVID-19 and RSV health states, QALY losses associated with child health states were higher than family spillover or adult health states. In the regression analysis, QALY losses reported in the 2023 survey were significantly lower than 2021 QALY losses for COVID-19, but not RSV. Conclusions: Preferences may change over time in a pandemic context and therefore, economic analyses of pandemic interventions should consider the timeframe of health preference data collection to determine whether they are suitable to include in an economic evaluation. Even with the impacts on health-related quality of life attenuated over time, childhood illnesses still had a measurable impact on caregivers’ quality of life.

Background: Electronic cigarettes (ECs) are often marketed as a safer alternative to combustible tobacco products. The global EC market has rapidly expanded since their introduction, creating an urgent need for research describing the toxicity and chemical composition of ECs. We conducted an umbrella review to summarize the evidence from existing systematic reviews (SRs). Methods: The search for SRs was conducted across four electronic databases through 25 January 2022. Methodological quality was assessed using the AMSTAR-2 quality appraisal tool. Results: Twenty-five SRs were included in our umbrella review. Chemical profiles widely varied across studies included in the reviews, which was mainly attributed to the lack of standardized protocols investigating the constituents, and differences in EC devices and e-liquids tested. Metals were more abundant in some EC aerosols than cigarettes, while carbonyls were typically found at lower levels. There was consistent evidence of in vitro toxicity from EC aerosol and e-liquid exposure. AMSTAR-2 revealed important limitations across reviews. Conclusions: While most reviews concluded that ECs were likely less harmful than cigarettes, there was hesitancy to draw clear conclusions due to variable analytical procedures and inconsistent findings among the included studies. Future SRs with improved methodology and reporting are needed to adequately inform tobacco regulatory actions.

Metastatic breast cancer (MBC) treatment has changed substantially over time, but we do not know whether survival post-metastasis has improved at the population level. We searched for studies of MBC patients that reported survival after metastasis in at least two time periods between 1970 and the present. We used meta-regression models to test for survival improvement over time in four disease groups: recurrent, recurrent estrogen (ER)-positive, recurrent ER-negative, and de novo stage IV. We performed sensitivity analyses based on bias in some studies that could lead earlier cohorts to include more aggressive cancers. There were 15 studies of recurrent MBC (N = 18 678 patients; 3073 ER-positive and 1239 ER-negative); meta-regression showed no survival improvement among patients recurring between 1980 and 1990, but median survival increased from 21 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 18 to 25) months to 38 (95% CI = 31 to 47) months from 1990 to 2010. For ER-positive MBC patients, median survival increased during 1990-2010 from 32 (95% CI = 23 to 43) to 57 (95% CI = 37 to 87) months, and for ER-negative MBC patients from 14 (95% CI = 11 to 19) to 33 (95% CI = 21 to 51) months. Among eight studies (N = 35 831) of de novo stage IV MBC, median survival increased during 1990-2010 from 20 (95% CI = 16 to 24) to 31 (95% CI = 24 to 39) months. Results did not change in sensitivity analyses. By bridging studies over time, we demonstrated improvements in survival for recurrent and de novo stage IV MBC overall and across ER-defined subtypes since 1990. These results can inform patient-doctor discussions about MBC prognosis and therapy.

E-cigarettes are often marketed as a safer alternative to combustible cigarettes. However, their health effects, especially those associated with long-term use, remain largely uncertain. We conducted an umbrella review of the cardiopulmonary and carcinogenic risks of e-cigarette use, distinguishing between short-term and long-term health effects. The search for systematic reviews was conducted across four electronic databases through 25 January 2022. Methodological quality was assessed using the AMSTAR-2 quality appraisal tool. Seventeen systematic reviews, including five meta-analyses, were included in our umbrella review. There was a clear underreporting of e-cigarette devices and e-liquid types, e-cigarette and cigarette exposure, and the health and smoking status of study participants. Overall, the findings suggest that short-term use of e-cigarettes may be associated with acute cardiopulmonary risks, although to a lesser extent than cigarette use. Long-term e-cigarette use may have pulmonary/respiratory benefits in those who switch from chronic cigarette smoking, particularly in individuals with asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Evidence on intermediate and long-term carcinogenic effects is lacking. This umbrella review underscores the urgent need for systematic reviews with better adherence to established reporting guidelines, consistent definitions of duration of e-cigarette use, a focus on newer devices, and accounting for the impacts of former or current smoking.