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While biological invasions are recognized as a major threat to global biodiversity, determining non-native species’ abilities to establish in new areas (species invasiveness) and the vulnerability of those areas to invasions (community invasibility) is challenging. Here, we use trait-based analysis to profile invasive species and quantify the community invasibility for >1,800 North American freshwater fish communities. We show that, in addition to effects attributed to propagule pressure caused by human intervention, species with higher fecundity, longer lifespan and larger size tend to be more invasive. Community invasibility peaks when the functional distance among native species was high, leaving unoccupied functional space for the establishment of potential invaders. Our findings illustrate how the functional traits of non-native species determining their invasiveness, and the functional characteristics of the invaded community determining its invasibility, may be identified. Considering those two determinants together will enable better predictions of invasions. Predicting non-native species’ invasiveness and vulnerability of communities to invasions is challenging. Here, the authors show that establishment of non-native freshwater fish species in the US depends on the functional characteristics of both non-native and resident species.

During pandemics like COVID-19, both the quality and quantity of services offered by businesses and organizations have been severely impacted. They often have applied a hybrid home office setup to overcome this problem, although in some situations, working from home lowers employee productivity. So, increasing the rate of presence in the office is frequently desired from the manager’s standpoint. On the other hand, as the virus spreads through interpersonal contact, the risk of infection increases when workplace occupancy rises. Motivated by this trade-off, in this paper, we model this problem as a bi-objective optimization problem and propose a practical approach to find the trade-off solutions. We present a new probabilistic framework to compute the expected number of infected employees for a setting of the influential parameters, such as the incidence level in the neighborhood of the company, transmission rate of the virus, number of employees, rate of vaccination, testing frequency, and rate of contacts among the employees. The results show a wide range of trade-offs between the expected number of infections and productivity, for example, from 1 to 6 weekly infections in 100 employees and a productivity level of 65% to 85%. This depends on the configuration of influential parameters and the occupancy level. We implement the model and the algorithm and perform several experiments with different settings of the parameters. Moreover, we developed an online application based on the result in this paper which can be used as a recommender for the optimal rate of occupancy in companies/workplaces.

AIM: Species distribution models (SDMs) are common tools in biogeography and conservation ecology. It has been repeatedly claimed that aggregated (stacked) SDMs (S‐SDMs) will overestimate species richness. One recently suggested solution to this problem is to use macroecological models of species richness to constrain S‐SDMs. Here, we examine current practice in the development of S‐SDMs to identify methodological problems, provide tools to overcome these issues, and quantify the performance of correctly stacked S‐SDMs alongside macroecological models. LOCATIONS: Barents Sea, Europe and Dutch Wadden Sea. METHODS: We present formal mathematical arguments demonstrating how S‐SDMs should and should not be stacked. We then compare the performance of macroecological models and correctly stacked S‐SDMs on the same data to determine if the former can be used to constrain the latter. Next, we develop a maximum‐likelihood approach to adjusting S‐SDMs and discuss how it could potentially be used in combination with macroecological models. Finally, we use this tool to quantify how S‐SDMs deviate from observed richness in four very different case studies. RESULTS: We demonstrate that stacking methods based on thresholding site‐level occurrence probabilities will almost always be biased, and that these biases will tend toward systematic overprediction of richness. Next, we show that correctly stacked S‐SDMs perform very similarly to macroecological models in that they both have a tendency to overpredict richness in species‐poor sites and underpredict it in species‐rich sites. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that the perception that S‐SDMs consistently overpredict richness is driven largely by incorrect stacking methods. With these biases removed, S‐SDMs perform similarly to macroecological models, suggesting that combining the two model classes will not offer much improvement. However, if situations where coupling S‐SDMs and macroecological models would be beneficial are subsequently identified, the tools we develop would facilitate such a synthesis.

The SARS-CoV-2 virus has spread around the world with over 100 million infections to date, and currently many countries are fighting the second wave of infections. With neither sufficient vaccination capacity nor effective medication, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) remain the measure of choice. However, NPIs place a great burden on society, the mental health of individuals, and economics. Therefore the cost/benefit ratio must be carefully balanced and a target-oriented small-scale implementation of these NPIs could help achieve this balance. To this end, we introduce a modified SEIRD-class compartment model and parametrize it locally for all 412 districts of Germany. The NPIs are modeled at district level by time varying contact rates. This high spatial resolution makes it possible to apply geostatistical methods to analyse the spatial patterns of the pandemic in Germany and to compare the results of different spatial resolutions. We find that the modified SEIRD model can successfully be fitted to the COVID-19 cases in German districts, states, and also nationwide. We propose the correlation length as a further measure, besides the weekly incidence rates, to describe the current situation of the epidemic.

The complex network framework has been successfully used to model interactions between entities in Complex Systems in the Biological Sciences such as Proteomics, Genomics, Neuroscience, and Ecology. Networks of organisms at different spatial scales and in different ecosystems have provided insights into community assembly patterns and emergent properties of ecological systems. In the present work, we investigate two questions pertaining to fish species assembly rules in US river basins, a) if morphologically similar fish species also tend to be phylogenetically closer, and b) to what extent are co-occurring species that are phylogenetically close also morphologically similar? For the first question, we construct a network of Hydrologic Unit Code 8 (HUC8) regions as nodes with interaction strengths (edges) governed by the number of common species. For each of the modules of this network, which are found to be geographically separated, there is differential yet significant evidence that phylogenetic distance predicts morphological distance. For the second question, we construct and analyze nearest neighbor directed networks of species based on their morphological distances and phylogenetic distances. Through module detection on these networks and comparing the module-level mean phylogenetic distance and mean morphological distance with the number of basins of common occurrence of species in modules, we find that both phylogeny and morphology of species have significant roles in governing species co-occurrence, i.e. phylogenetically and morphologically distant species tend to co-exist more. In addition, between the two quantities (morphological distance and phylogentic distance), we find that morphological distance is a stronger determinant of species co-occurrences.

1. Collisions of large soaring raptors with wind turbines and other infrastructures represent a growing conservation concern. We describe a way to leverage knowledge about raptor soaring behaviour to forecast the probability that raptors fly in the rotor-swept zone. Soaring raptors are theoretically expected to select energy sources (uplift) optimally, making their flight height dependent on uplift conditions. This approach can be used to forecast collision hazard when planning or operating wind farms. Empirical investigations of the factors influencing flight height have, however, so far been hindered by observation error. 2. We propose a two-pronged approach. First, we fitted state-space models to z-axis GPS tracking data to filter heavy-tailed observation error and estimate the relationship between vertical movement parameters and weather variables describing the energy landscape (thermal and orographic uplift potential). Second, we fitted a mechanistic model of flight height above ground based on aerodynamics and resource selection theories. The approach was replicated for five GPS-tracked Andean condors Vultur gryphus, eight griffon vultures Gyps fulvus, and six golden eagles Aquila chrysaetos. 3. In all individuals, movement parameters correlated with thermal uplift potential in the expected direction. In all species, collision hazard was lowest for high thermal uplift potential values. Species specificities in the presence of a peak in collision hazard for medium values of thermal uplift potential could be explained by differences in wing loading and aspect ratio. 4. Synthesis and applications. Our fitted models convert weather data (thermal uplift potential) into a prediction of collision hazard (probability to fly in the rotor-swept zone), making it possible to prioritize different wind development projects with respect to the relative hazard they would pose to raptors. However, our model should be combined with post-construction monitoring to document, and eventually account for turbine avoidance behaviours in collision rate predictions.

The optimal placement of healthcare facilities, including the placement of diagnostic test centers, plays a pivotal role in ensuring efficient and equitable access to healthcare services. However, the emergence of unique complexities in the context of a pandemic, exemplified by the COVID-19 crisis, has necessitated the development of customized solutions. This paper introduces a bi-objective integer linear programming model designed to achieve two key objectives: minimizing average travel time for individuals visiting testing centers and maximizing an equitable workload distribution among testing centers. This problem is NP-hard and we propose a customized local search algorithm based on the Voronoi diagram. Additionally, we employ an ϵ-constraint approach, which leverages the Gurobi solver. We rigorously examine the effectiveness of the model and the algorithms through numerical experiments and demonstrate their capability to identify Pareto-optimal solutions. We show that while the Gurobi performs efficiently in small-size instances, our proposed algorithm outperforms it in large-size instances of the problem.

Background Speed and distance traveled provide quantifiable links between behavior and energetics, and are among the metrics most routinely estimated from animal tracking data. Researchers typically sum over the straight-line displacements (SLDs) between sampled locations to quantify distance traveled, while speed is estimated by dividing these displacements by time. Problematically, this approach is highly sensitive to the measurement scale, with biases subject to the sampling frequency, the tortuosity of the animal’s movement, and the amount of measurement error. Compounding the issue of scale-sensitivity, SLD estimates do not come equipped with confidence intervals to quantify their uncertainty. Methods To overcome the limitations of SLD estimation, we outline a continuous-time speed and distance (CTSD) estimation method. An inherent property of working in continuous-time is the ability to separate the underlying continuous-time movement process from the discrete-time sampling process, making these models less sensitive to the sampling schedule when estimating parameters. The first step of CTSD is to estimate the device’s error parameters to calibrate the measurement error. Once the errors have been calibrated, model selection techniques are employed to identify the best fit continuous-time movement model for the data. A simulation-based approach is then employed to sample from the distribution of trajectories conditional on the data, from which the mean speed estimate and its confidence intervals can be extracted. Results Using simulated data, we demonstrate how CTSD provides accurate, scale-insensitive estimates with reliable confidence intervals. When applied to empirical GPS data, we found that SLD estimates varied substantially with sampling frequency, whereas CTSD provided relatively consistent estimates, with often dramatic improvements over SLD. Conclusions The methods described in this study allow for the computationally efficient, scale-insensitive estimation of speed and distance traveled, without biases due to the sampling frequency, the tortuosity of the animal’s movement, or the amount of measurement error. In addition to being robust to the sampling schedule, the point estimates come equipped with confidence intervals, permitting formal statistical inference. All the methods developed in this study are now freely available in the ctmm R package or the ctmmweb point-and-click web based graphical user interface.

Nomadic movements are often a consequence of unpredictable resource dynamics. However, how nomadic ungulates select dynamic resources is still understudied. Here we examined resource selection of nomadic Mongolian gazelles ( Procapra gutturosa ) in the Eastern Steppe of Mongolia. We used daily GPS locations of 33 gazelles tracked up to 3.5 years. We examined selection for forage during the growing season using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). In winter we examined selection for snow cover which mediates access to forage and drinking water. We studied selection at the population level using resource selection functions (RSFs) as well as on the individual level using step-selection functions (SSFs) at varying spatio-temporal scales from 1 to 10 days. Results from the population and the individual level analyses differed. At the population level we found selection for higher than average NDVI during the growing season. This may indicate selection for areas with more forage cover within the arid steppe landscape. In winter, gazelles selected for intermediate snow cover, which may indicate preference for areas which offer some snow for hydration but not so much as to hinder movement. At the individual level, in both seasons and across scales, we were not able to detect selection in the majority of individuals, but selection was similar to that seen in the RSFs for those individuals showing selection. Difficulty in finding selection with SSFs may indicate that Mongolian gazelles are using a random search strategy to find forage in a landscape with large, homogeneous areas of vegetation. The combination of random searches and landscape characteristics could therefore obscure results at the fine scale of SSFs. The significant results on the broader scale used for the population level RSF highlight that, although individuals show uncoordinated movement trajectories, they ultimately select for similar vegetation and snow cover.

Projects focused on movement behaviour and home range are commonplace, but beyond a focus on choosing appropriate research questions, there are no clear guidelines for such studies. Without these guidelines, designing an animal tracking study to produce reliable estimates of space‐use and movement properties (necessary to answer basic movement ecology questions), is often done in an ad hoc manner. We developed ‘movedesign’, a user‐friendly Shiny application, which can be utilized to investigate the precision of three estimates regularly reported in movement and spatial ecology studies: home range area, speed and distance travelled. Conceptually similar to statistical power analysis, this application enables users to assess the degree of estimate precision that may be achieved with a given sampling design; that is, the choices regarding data resolution (sampling interval) and battery life (sampling duration). Leveraging the ‘ctmm’ R package, we utilize two methods proven to handle many common biases in animal movement datasets: autocorrelated kernel density estimators (AKDEs) and continuous‐time speed and distance (CTSD) estimators. Longer sampling durations are required to reliably estimate home range areas via the detection of a sufficient number of home range crossings. In contrast, speed and distance estimation requires a sampling interval short enough to ensure that a statistically significant signature of the animal's velocity remains in the data. This application addresses key challenges faced by researchers when designing tracking studies, including the trade‐off between long battery life and high resolution of GPS locations collected by the devices, which may result in a compromise between reliably estimating home range or speed and distance. ‘movedesign’ has broad applications for researchers and decision‐makers, supporting them to focus efforts and resources in achieving the optimal sampling design strategy for their research questions, prioritizing the correct deployment decisions for insightful and reliable outputs, while understanding the trade‐off associated with these choices.