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Kelp forests form an important biogenic habitat that responds to natural and human drivers. Global concerns exist about threats to kelp forests, yet long-term information is limited and research suggests that trends are geographically distinct. We examined distribution of the bull kelp Nereocystis luetkeana over 145 years in South Puget Sound (SPS), a semi-protected inner basin in a fjord estuary complex in the northeast Pacific Ocean. We synthesized 48 historical and modern Nereocystis surveys and examined presence/absence within 1-km segments along 452 km of shoreline. Compared to the earliest baseline in 1878, Nereocystis extent in 2017 decreased 63%, with individual sub-basins showing up to 96% loss. Losses have persisted for decades, across a range of climate conditions. In recent decades, Nereocystis predominantly occurred along shorelines with intense currents and mixing, where temperature and nutrient concentrations did not reach thresholds for impacts to Nereocystis performance, and high current speeds likely excluded grazers. Losses predominated in areas with elevated temperature, lower nutrient concentrations, and relatively low current velocities. The pattern of long-term losses in SPS contrasts with stability in floating kelp abundance during the last century in an area of the Salish Sea with greater wave exposure and proximity to oceanic conditions. These findings support the hypothesis that kelp beds along wave-sheltered shorelines exhibit greater sensitivity to environmental stressors. Additionally, shorelines with strong currents and deep-water mixing may provide refugia within sheltered systems.

Kelp forests are in decline across much of their range due to place‐specific combinations of local and global stressors. Declines in kelp abundance can lead to cascading losses of biodiversity and productivity with far‐reaching ecological and socioeconomic consequences. The Salish Sea is a hotspot of kelp diversity where many species of kelp provide critical habitat and food for commercially, ecologically, and culturally important fish and invertebrate species. However, like other regions, kelp forests in much of the Salish Sea are in rapid decline. Data gaps and limited long‐term monitoring have hampered attempts to identify and manage for specific drivers of decline, despite the documented urgency to protect these important habitats. To address these knowledge gaps, we gathered a focus group of experts on kelp in the Salish Sea to identify perceived direct and indirect stressors facing kelp forests. We then conducted a comprehensive literature review of peer‐reviewed studies from the Salish Sea and temperate coastal ecosystems worldwide to assess the level of support for the pathways identified by the experts, and we identified knowledge gaps to prioritize future research. Our results revealed major research gaps within the Salish Sea and highlighted the potential to use expert knowledge for making informed decisions in the region. We found high support for the pathways in the global literature, with variable consensus on the relationship between stressors and responses across studies, confirming the influence of local ecological, oceanographic, and anthropogenic contexts and threshold effects on stressor–response relationships. Finally, we prioritized areas for future research in the Salish Sea. This study demonstrates the value expert opinion has to inform management decisions. These methods are readily adaptable to other ecosystem management contexts, and the results of this case study can be immediately applied to kelp management. Data gaps and limited long‐term monitoring have hampered attempts to identify and manage for specific drivers of decline across many ecosystems, despite often documented urgency to protect important habitats. To address these knowledge gaps, we gathered a focus group of experts paired with a comprehensive literature review to identify perceived direct and indirect stressors facing a threatened ecosystem. Our results revealed local research gaps and highlighted the potential to use expert knowledge for making informed decisions in the region.

Understanding the historical extent of biogenic habitats can provide insight into the nature of human impacts and inform restoration and conservation actions. Kelp forests form an important biogenic habitat that responds to natural and human drivers. Global concerns exist about threats to kelp forests, yet long term information is limited and research suggests that trends are geographically distinct. We examined distribution of the bull kelp Nereocystis luetkeana over 145 years in South Puget Sound (SPS), a semi-protected inner basin in a fjord estuary complex in the northeast Pacific Ocean. We synthesized 48 historical and modern Nereocystis surveys and examined presence/absence within 1-km shoreline segments along 452 km of shoreline. Over the last 145 years, Nereocystis has been documented in 26% of the shoreline segments. Its extent decreased 62% basin-wide between the 1870s and 2017, with extreme losses in the two out of three sub-basins (96% in Central and 83% in West). In recent years, almost all Nereocystis occurred in the East sub-basin. In the majority of segments where Nereocystis disappeared, the most recent observation was 4 decades ago, or earlier. Multiple natural and human factors that are known to impact kelp could have contributed to observed patterns, but limited data exist at the spatial and temporal scale of this study. In some areas, recent environmental conditions approached thresholds associated with decreased kelp performance. Longstanding Nereocystis losses occurred exclusively in areas with relatively low current velocities. Remaining Nereocystis predominantly occurred in areas where circulation is stronger. Exceptions to this pattern demonstrate that additional factors outside the scope of this study contributed to trajectories of Nereocystis persistence or loss.

Background Evidence based practices such as cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) are often underutilized in community mental health settings. Implementation efforts can be effective in increasing CBT use among clinicians, but not all therapists successfully reach CBT competence at the end of training. Past studies have focused on how clinicians overall acquire CBT skills, rather than examining different learning trajectories that clinicians may follow and predictors of those trajectories; however, understanding of learning trajectories may suggest targets for implementation strategies. Methods We used growth mixture models to identity trajectories in CBT skill acquisition among clinicians ( n  = 812) participating in a large scale CBT training and implementation program, and examined predictors (attitudes towards EBPs, clinician burnout, professional field, educational degree level) of trajectory membership. We assessed model fit using BIC, Vuong likelihood tests, and entropy. We hypothesized that there would be at least two trajectories- one where clinicians increased in skills over time and reach CBT competence, and one with minimal increases in CBT skills that did not result in competence. We hypothesized that presence of a graduate degree, more positive attitudes towards EBPs, and lower burnout would predict more positive trajectories in CBT skill acquisition. We did not have a specific prediction for field of study and CBT skill acquisition. Results Clinicians followed either a progressive trajectory with steady increases in CBT skills over time, or a stagnant trajectory with minimal increases in CBT skills. Clinicians with more positive attitudes towards EBPs were 3.51 times more likely to follow a progressive trajectory, while clinicians who were in an ‘Other’ professional field were 0.46 times less likely to follow a progressive trajectory. Contrary to our hypotheses, educational degree and clinician burnout did not predict CBT trajectories. Conclusion Our results indicate that attitudes towards EBPs can be an important intervention point to improve CBT skill acquisition for therapists in training and implementation efforts. More structured support for clinicians who did not receive training in mental health focused fields may also help improve CBT learning.