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This study addresses the greatest concern facing the large-scale integration of wind, water, and solar (WWS) into a power grid: the high cost of avoiding load loss caused by WWS variability and uncertainty. It uses a new grid integrationmodel and finds low-cost, no-load-loss, nonunique solutions to this problem on electrification of all US energy sectors (electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, and industry) while accounting for wind and solar time series data from a 3D global weather model that simulates extreme events and competition among wind turbines for available kinetic energy. Solutions are obtained by prioritizing storage for heat (in soil and water); cold (in ice and water); and electricity (in phase-change materials, pumped hydro, hydropower, and hydrogen), and using demand response. No natural gas, biofuels, nuclear power, or stationary batteries are needed. The resulting 2050–2055 US electricity social cost for a full system is much less than for fossil fuels. These results hold for many conditions, suggesting that low-cost, reliable 100% WWS systems should work many places worldwide.

Marine remote sensing provides comprehensive characterizations of the ocean surface across space and time. However, cloud cover is a significant challenge in marine satellite monitoring. Researchers have proposed various algorithms to fill data gaps “below the clouds”, but a comparison of algorithm performance across several geographic regions has not yet been conducted. We compared ten basic algorithms, including data-interpolating empirical orthogonal functions (DINEOF), geostatistical interpolation, and supervised learning methods, in two gap-filling tasks: the reconstruction of chlorophyll a in pixels covered by clouds, and the correction of regional mean chlorophyll a concentrations. For this purpose, we combined tens of cloud-free images with hundreds of cloud masks in four study areas, creating thousands of situations in which to test the algorithms. The best algorithm depended on the study area and task, and differences between the best algorithms were small. Ordinary Kriging, spatiotemporal Kriging, and DINEOF worked well across study areas and tasks. Random forests reconstructed individual pixels most accurately. We also found that high levels of cloud cover led to considerable errors in estimated regional mean chlorophyll a concentration. These errors could, however, be reduced by about 50% to 80% (depending on the study area) with prior cloud-filling.

Transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) is a promising method for altering the function of neural systems, cognition, and behavior. Evidence is emerging that it can also influence psychiatric symptomatology, including major depression and schizophrenia. However, there are many open questions regarding how the method might have such an effect, and uncertainties surrounding its influence on neural activity, and human cognition and functioning. In the present critical review, we identify key priorities for future research into major depression and schizophrenia, including studies of the mechanism(s) of action of tDCS at the neuronal and systems levels, the establishment of the cognitive impact of tDCS, as well as investigations of the potential clinical efficacy of tDCS. We highlight areas of progress in each of these domains, including data that appear to favor an effect of tDCS on neural oscillations rather than spiking, and findings that tDCS administration to the prefrontal cortex during task training may be an effective way to enhance behavioral performance. Finally, we provide suggestions for further empirical study that will elucidate the impact of tDCS on brain and behavior, and may pave the way for efficacious clinical treatments for psychiatric disorders.

The Hawaiian Archipelago experienced a moderate bleaching event in 2019—the third major bleaching event over a 6-year period to impact the islands. In response, the Hawai‘i Coral Bleaching Collaborative (HCBC) conducted 2,177 coral bleaching surveys across the Hawaiian Archipelago. The HCBC was established to coordinate bleaching monitoring efforts across the state between academic institutions, non-governmental organizations, and governmental agencies to facilitate data sharing and provide management recommendations. In 2019, the goals of this unique partnership were to: 1) assess the spatial and temporal patterns of thermal stress; 2) examine taxa-level patterns in bleaching susceptibility; 3) quantify spatial variation in bleaching extent; 4) compare 2019 patterns to those of prior bleaching events; 5) identify predictors of bleaching in 2019; and 6) explore site-specific management strategies to mitigate future bleaching events. Both acute thermal stress and bleaching in 2019 were less severe overall compared to the last major marine heatwave events in 2014 and 2015. Bleaching observed was highly site- and taxon-specific, driven by the susceptibility of remaining coral assemblages whose structure was likely shaped by previous bleaching and subsequent mortality. A suite of environmental and anthropogenic predictors was significantly correlated with observed bleaching in 2019. Acute environmental stressors, such as temperature and surface light, were equally important as previous conditions (e.g. historical thermal stress and historical bleaching) in accounting for variation in bleaching during the 2019 event. We found little evidence for acclimation by reefs to thermal stress in the main Hawaiian Islands. Moreover, our findings illustrate how detrimental effects of local anthropogenic stressors, such as tourism and urban run-off, may be exacerbated under high thermal stress. In light of the forecasted increase in severity and frequency of bleaching events, future mitigation of both local and global stressors is a high priority for the future of corals in Hawai‘i.

The scientific community recognizes that molecular xenomonitoring (MX) can allow infected mosquitoes to serve as a proxy for human infection in vector-borne disease surveillance, but developing reliable MX systems for programmatic use has been challenging. The primary aim of this article is to examine the available evidence to recommend how MX can best be used for various purposes. Although much of the literature published within the last 20 years focuses on using MX for lymphatic filariasis elimination, a growing body of evidence supports its use in early warning systems for emerging infectious diseases (EIDs). An MX system design must consider the goal and target (e.g. diseases targeted for elimination versus EIDs), mosquito and pathogen characteristics, and context (e.g. setting and health system). MX is currently used as a ‘supplement’ to human surveillance and will not be considered as a ‘replacement’ until the correlation between pathogen-infection rates in human and mosquito populations is better understood. Establishing such relationships may not be feasible in elimination scenarios, due to increasingly dwindling human infection prevalence after successful control, but may still be possible for EIDs and in integrated disease surveillance systems. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Novel control strategies for mosquito-borne diseases'.

Climate-change adaptation focuses on conducting and translating research to minimize the dire impacts of anthropogenic climate change, including threats to biodiversity and human welfare. One adaptation strategy is to focus conservation on climate-change refugia (that is, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and sociocultural resources). In this Special Issue, recent methodological and conceptual advances in refugia science will be highlighted. Advances in this emerging subdiscipline are improving scientific understanding and conservation in the face of climate change by considering scale and ecosystem dynamics, and looking beyond climate exposure to sensitivity and adaptive capacity. We propose considering refugia in the context of a multifaceted, long-term, network-based approach, as temporal and spatial gradients of ecological persistence that can act as “slow lanes” rather than areas of stasis. After years of discussion confined primarily to the scientific literature, researchers and resource managers are now working together to put refugia conservation into practice.

Orchids are the most diverse family of angiosperms, with over 25 000 species, more than mammals, birds and reptiles combined. Tests of hypotheses to account for such diversity have been stymied by the lack of a fully resolved broad-scale phylogeny. Here, we provide such a phylogeny, based on 75 chloroplast genes for 39 species representing all orchid subfamilies and 16 of 17 tribes, time-calibrated against 17 angiosperm fossils. A supermatrix analysis places an additional 144 species based on three plastid genes. Orchids appear to have arisen roughly 112 million years ago (Mya); the subfamilies Orchidoideae and Epidendroideae diverged from each other at the end of the Cretaceous; and the eight tribes and three previously unplaced subtribes of the upper epidendroids diverged rapidly from each other between 37.9 and 30.8 Mya. Orchids appear to have undergone one significant acceleration of net species diversification in the orchidoids, and two accelerations and one deceleration in the upper epidendroids. Consistent with theory, such accelerations were correlated with the evolution of pollinia, the epiphytic habit, CAM photosynthesis, tropical distribution (especially in extensive cordilleras), and pollination via Lepidoptera or euglossine bees. Deceit pollination appears to have elevated the number of orchid species by one-half but not via acceleration of the rate of net diversification. The highest rate of net species diversification within the orchids (0.382 sp sp−1 My−1) is 6.8 times that at the Asparagales crown.