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Genetic diversity is estimated to be declining faster than species diversity under escalating threats, but its spatial distribution remains poorly documented at the global scale. Theory predicts that similar processes should foster congruent spatial patterns of genetic and species diversity, but empirical studies are scarce. Using a mined database of 50,588 georeferenced mitochondrial DNA barcode sequences (COI) for 3,815 marine and 1,611 freshwater fish species respectively, we examined the correlation between genetic diversity and species diversity and their global distributions in relation to climate and geography. Genetic diversity showed a clear spatial organisation, but a weak association with species diversity for both marine and freshwater species. We found a predominantly positive relationship between genetic diversity and sea surface temperature for marine species. Genetic diversity of freshwater species varied primarily across the regional basins and was negatively correlated with average river slope. The detection of genetic diversity patterns suggests that conservation measures should consider mismatching spatial signals across multiple facets of biodiversity.

Although extinctions due to climate change are still uncommon, they might surpass those caused by habitat loss or overexploitation over the next few decades. Among marine megafauna, mammals fulfill key and irreplaceable ecological roles in the ocean, and the collapse of their populations may therefore have irreversible consequences for ecosystem functioning and services. Using a trait-based approach, we assessed the vulnerability of all marine mammals to global warming under high and low greenhouse gas emission scenarios for the middle and the end of the 21 st century. We showed that the North Pacific Ocean, the Greenland Sea and the Barents Sea host the species that are most vulnerable to global warming. Future conservation plans should therefore focus on these regions, where there are long histories of overexploitation and there are high levels of current threats to marine mammals. Among the most vulnerable marine mammals were several threatened species, such as the North Pacific right whale ( Eubalaena japonica ) and the dugong ( Dugong dugon ), that displayed unique combinations of functional traits. Beyond species loss, we showed that the potential extinctions of the marine mammals that were most vulnerable to global warming might induce a disproportionate loss of functional diversity, which may have profound impacts on the future functioning of marine ecosystems worldwide.

The contributions of species to ecosystem functions or services depend not only on their presence but also on their local abundance. Progress in predictive spatial modelling has largely focused on species occurrence rather than abundance. As such, limited guidance exists on the most reliable methods to explain and predict spatial variation in abundance. We analysed the performance of 68 abundance‐based species distribution models fitted to 800 000 standardised abundance records for more than 800 terrestrial bird and reef fish species. We found a large amount of variation in the performance of abundance‐based models. While many models performed poorly, a subset of models consistently reconstructed range‐wide abundance patterns. The best predictions were obtained using random forests for frequently encountered and abundant species and for predictions within the same environmental domain as model calibration. Extending predictions of species abundance outside of the environmental conditions used in model training generated poor predictions. Thus, interpolation of abundances between observations can help improve understanding of spatial abundance patterns, but our results indicate extrapolated predictions of abundance under changing climate have a much greater uncertainty. Our synthesis provides a road map for modelling abundance patterns, a key property of species distributions that underpins theoretical and applied questions in ecology and conservation.

The evolutionary dissimilarity between communities (phylogenetic beta diversity PBD) has been increasingly explored by ecologists and biogeographers to assess the relative roles of ecological and evolutionary processes in structuring natural communities. Among PBD measures, the PhyloSor and UniFrac indices have been widely used to assess the level of turnover of lineages over geographical and environmental gradients. However, these indices can be considered as 'broad-sense' measures of phylogenetic turnover as they incorporate different aspects of differences in evolutionary history between communities that may be attributable to phylogenetic diversity gradients. In the present study, we extend an additive partitioning framework proposed for compositional beta diversity to PBD. Specifically, we decomposed the PhyloSor and UniFrac indices into two separate components accounting for 'true' phylogenetic turnover and phylogenetic diversity gradients, respectively. We illustrated the relevance of this framework using simple theoretical and archetypal examples, as well as an empirical study based on coral reef fish communities. Overall, our results suggest that using PhyloSor and UniFrac may greatly over-estimate the level of spatial turnover of lineages if the two compared communities show contrasting levels of phylogenetic diversity. We therefore recommend that future studies use the 'true' phylogenetic turnover component of these indices when the studied communities encompass a large phylogenetic diversity gradient.

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are major tools to protect biodiversity and sustain fisheries. For species with a sedentary adult phase and a dispersive larval phase, the effectiveness of MPA networks for population persistence depends on connectivity through larval dispersal. However, connectivity patterns between MPAs remain largely unknown at large spatial scales. Here, we used a biophysical model to evaluate connectivity between MPAs in the Mediterranean Sea, a region of extremely rich biodiversity that is currently protected by a system of approximately a hundred MPAs. The model was parameterized according to the dispersal capacity of the dusky grouper Epinephelus marginatus, an archetypal conservation-dependent species, with high economic importance and emblematic in the Mediterranean. Using various connectivity metrics and graph theory, we showed that Mediterranean MPAs are far from constituting a true, well-connected network. On average, each MPA was directly connected to four others and MPAs were clustered into several groups. Two MPAs (one in the Balearic Islands and one in Sardinia) emerged as crucial nodes for ensuring multi-generational connectivity. The high heterogeneity of MPA distribution, with low density in the South-Eastern Mediterranean, coupled with a mean dispersal distance of 120 km, leaves about 20% of the continental shelf without any larval supply. This low connectivity, here demonstrated for a major Mediterranean species, poses new challenges for the creation of a future Mediterranean network of well-connected MPAs providing recruitment to the whole continental shelf. This issue is even more critical given that the expected reduction of pelagic larval duration following sea temperature rise will likely decrease connectivity even more.

Aim: Environmental DNA metabarcoding has recently emerged as a non-invasive tool for aquatic biodiversity inventories, frequently surpassing traditional methods for detecting a wide range of taxa in most habitats. The major limitation currently impairing the large-scale application of eDNA-based inventories is the lack of species sequences available in public genetic databases. Unfortunately, these gaps are still unknown spatially and taxonomically, hindering targeted future sequencing efforts. Innovation: We propose GAPeDNA, a user-friendly web interface that provides a global overview of genetic database completeness for a given taxon across space and conservation status. As an application, we synthetized data from regional checklists for marine and freshwater fishes along with their IUCN conservation status to provide global maps of species coverage using the European Nucleotide Archive public reference database for 19 metabarcoding primers. This tool automatizes the scanning of gaps in these databases to guide future sequencing efforts and support the deployment of eDNA inventories at larger scale. This tool is flexible and can be expanded to other taxa and primers upon data availability. Main conclusions: Using our global fish case study, we show that gaps increase towards the tropics where species diversity and the number of threatened species are the highest. It highlights priority areas for fish sequencing like the Congo, the Mekong and the Mississippi freshwater basins which host more than 60 non-sequenced threatened fish species. For marine fishes, the Caribbean and East Africa host up to 42 non-sequenced threatened species. By presenting the global genetic database completeness for several primers on any taxa and building an open-access, updatable and flexible tool, GAPeDNA appears as a valuable contribution to support any kind of eDNA metabarcoding study.

Reliable and comparable estimates of biodiversity are the foundation for understanding ecological systems and informing policy and decision‐making, especially in an era of massive anthropogenic impacts on biodiversity. Environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding is at the forefront of technological advances in biodiversity monitoring, and the last few years have seen major progress and solutions to technical challenges from the laboratory to bioinformatics. Water eDNA has been shown to allow the fast and efficient recovery of biodiversity signals, but the rapid pace of technological development has meant that some important principles regarding sampling design, which are well established in traditional biodiversity inventories, have been neglected. Using a spatially explicit river flow model, we illustrate how sampling must be adjusted to the size of the watercourse to increase the quality of the biodiversity signal recovered. We additionally investigate the effect of sampling parameters (volume, number of sites, sequencing depth) on detection probability in an empirical data set. Based on traditional sampling principles, we propose that aquatic eDNA sampling replication and volume must be scaled to match the organisms' and ecosystems' properties to provide reliable biodiversity estimates. We present a generalizable conceptual equation describing sampling features as a function of the size of the ecosystem monitored, the abundance of target organisms, and the properties of the sequencing procedure. The aim of this formalization is to enhance the standardization of critical steps in the design of biodiversity inventory studies using eDNA. More robust sampling standards will generate more comparable biodiversity data from eDNA, which is necessary for the method's long‐term plausibility and comparability. We aim to enhance the standardization of critical steps in the design of biodiversity inventory studies using eDNA from water. More robust sampling standards will generate more comparable biodiversity data from eDNA, which is necessary for the method's applications.

Aim: A large body of knowledge exists on individual anthropogenic threats that have an impact on marine biodiversity in the Mediterranean Sea, although we know little about how these threats accumulate and interact to affect marine species and ecosystems. In this context, we aimed to identify the main areas where the interaction between marine biodiversity and threats is more pronounced and to assess their spatial overlap with current marine protected areas in the Mediterranean. Location: Mediterranean Sea. Methods: We first identified areas of high biodiversity of marine mammals, marine turtles, seabirds, fishes and commercial or well-documented invertebrates. We mapped potential areas of high threat where multiple threats are occurring simultaneously. Finally we quantified the areas of conservation concern for biodiversity by looking at the spatial overlap between high biodiversity and high cumulative threats, and we assessed the overlap with protected areas. Results: Our results show that areas with high marine biodiversity in the Mediterranean Sea are mainly located along the central and north shores, with lower values in the south-eastern regions. Areas of potential high cumulative threats are widespread in both the western and eastern basins, with fewer areas located in the south-eastern region. The interaction between areas of high biodiversity and threats for invertebrates, fishes and large animals in general (including large fishes, marine mammals, marine turtles and seabirds) is concentrated in the coastal areas of Spain, Gulf of Lions, north-eastern Ligurian Sea, Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea, south-eastern Turkey and regions surrounding the Nile Delta and north-west African coasts. Areas of concern are larger for marine mammal and seabird species. Main conclusions: These areas may represent good candidates for further research, management and protection activities, since there is only a maximum 2% overlap between existing marine protected areas (which cover 5% of the Mediterranean Sea) and our predicted areas of conservation concern for biodiversity.

The global network of protected areas has rapidly expanded in the past decade and is expected to cover at least 30% of land and sea by 2030 to halt biodiversity erosion. Yet, the distribution of protected areas is highly heterogeneous on Earth and the social-environmental preconditions enabling or hindering protected area establishment remain poorly understood. Here, using fourteen socioeconomic and environmental factors, we characterize the multidimensional niche of terrestrial and marine protected areas, which we use to accurately establish, at the global scale, whether a particular location has preconditions favourable for paestablishment. We reveal that protected areas, particularly the most restrictive ones, over-aggregate where human development and the number of non-governmental organizations are high. Based on the spatial distribution of vertebrates and the likelihood to convert non-protected areas into strictly protected areas, we identify ‘potential’ versus ‘unrealistic’ conservation gains on land and sea, which we define as areas of high vertebrate diversity that are, respectively, favourable and unfavourable to protected area establishment. Where protected areas are unrealistic, alternative strategies such as other effective area-based conservation measures or privately protected areas, could deliver conservation outcomes. In this study, the authors show that the placement of protected areas is globally highly heterogenous but can be accurately predicted from a reduced set of socioeconomic and environmental factors. These predictions highlight that most unprotected areas critical for the conservation of vertebrates are located in unfavourable conditions to establish future protected areas.

Marine ecological indicators can be used to assess the condition of the pelagic ecosystems. The bloom onset provides a warning bell for possible changes in trophic interactions and biogeochemical processes. However, depicting the phenology of phytoplankton blooms at high latitudes, where long-term observations are sparse or unavailable, is not a straightforward task. A data-interpolating empirical orthogonal function algorithm was applied to daily satellite-retrieved chlorophyll- a images to produce a long-term (1998–2014) and cloud-free data set over the North Water (NOW) polynya. The seasonal bloom was modeled using a multi-Gaussian approach from which a baseline of phenological characteristics was extracted. The correlation analysis highlights the influence of environmental factors, such as sea surface temperature, cloud fraction, wind stress, and sea-ice concentration, in modulating the bloom start date, its duration, and amplitude. The year-to-year variability in bloom onset appears to be controlled by a delicate balance between oceanographic and meteorological conditions. Blooms last longer during years characterized by a longer open-water period and are shorter during those characterized by greater sea-ice coverage. Noteworthy is the decrease in phytoplankton bloom amplitude over the 17 years examined. Collectively, these outcomes depict the NOW as a climate-sensitive region in which the pelagic marine ecosystem seems to be going toward a decline in chlorophyll- a concentrations. Satellite time series are still too short to differentiate between inter-annual variability, inter-decadal variability, and climate change signal. Should these changes persist; however, the NOW may no longer act as a productive regional oasis supporting thriving populations of zooplankton and top predators.