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The authors investigated the disease ecology of the fast-spreading fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans in fire salamanders; on the basis of their research, they call for Europe-wide monitoring systems and conservation strategies for threatened species. Fungal virus fells fire salamanders The recent emergence of the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans in Europe has led to drastic declines in salamander populations. To discover more about the ecology of this pathogen, An Martel and colleagues monitored a population of fire salamanders in Belgium over a two-year period following the first signs of infection. Pathogen arrival was associated with a rapid and sustained population collapse. The salamanders' susceptibility to infection was underpinned by their inability to mount an immune response, the targeting of sexually mature individuals, and the long-term persistence of fungal spores. The researchers call for a Europe-wide early warning system to monitor the spread of this pathogen, and the establishment of emergency action plans that prioritize conservation of acutely threatened species outside of their natural habitats. The recent arrival of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans in Europe was followed by rapid expansion of its geographical distribution and host range, confirming the unprecedented threat that this chytrid fungus poses to western Palaearctic amphibians 1 , 2 . Mitigating this hazard requires a thorough understanding of the pathogen’s disease ecology that is driving the extinction process. Here, we monitored infection, disease and host population dynamics in a Belgian fire salamander ( Salamandra salamandra ) population for two years immediately after the first signs of infection. We show that arrival of this chytrid is associated with rapid population collapse without any sign of recovery, largely due to lack of increased resistance in the surviving salamanders and a demographic shift that prevents compensation for mortality. The pathogen adopts a dual transmission strategy, with environmentally resistant non-motile spores in addition to the motile spores identified in its sister species B. dendrobatidis . The fungus retains its virulence not only in water and soil, but also in anurans and less susceptible urodelan species that function as infection reservoirs. The combined characteristics of the disease ecology suggest that further expansion of this fungus will behave as a ‘perfect storm’ that is able to rapidly extirpate highly susceptible salamander populations across Europe.

Unravelling the multiple interacting drivers of host–pathogen coexistence is crucial in understanding how an apparently stable state of endemism may shift towards an epidemic and lead to biodiversity loss. Here, we investigate the apparent coexistence of the global amphibian pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) with Bombina variegata populations in The Netherlands over a 7-year period. We used a multi-season mark–recapture dataset and assessed potential drivers of coexistence (individual condition, environmental mediation and demographic compensation) at the individual and population levels. We show that even in a situation with a clear cost incurred by endemic Bd, population sizes remain largely stable. Current environmental conditions and an over-dispersed pathogen load probably stabilize disease dynamics, but as higher temperatures increase infection probability, changing environmental conditions, for example a climate-change-driven rise in temperature, could unbalance the current fragile host–pathogen equilibrium. Understanding the proximate mechanisms of such environmental mediation and of site-specific differences in infection dynamics can provide vital information for mitigation actions.

Wildlife diseases are contributing to the current Earth’s sixth mass extinction; one disease, chytridiomycosis, has caused mass amphibian die-offs. While global spread of a hypervirulent lineage of the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ( Bd GPL) causes unprecedented loss of vertebrate diversity by decimating amphibian populations, its impact on amphibian communities is highly variable across regions. Here, we combine field data with in vitro and in vivo trials that demonstrate the presence of a markedly diverse variety of low virulence isolates of Bd GPL in northern European amphibian communities. Pre-exposure to some of these low virulence isolates protects against disease following subsequent exposure to highly virulent Bd GPL in midwife toads ( Alytes obstetricans ) and alters infection dynamics of its sister species B. salamandrivorans in newts ( Triturus marmoratus ), but not in salamanders ( Salamandra salamandra ). The key role of pathogen virulence in the complex host-pathogen-environment interaction supports efforts to limit pathogen pollution in a globalized world. The pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (BD) associated with widespread amphibian declines is present in Europe but has not consistently caused disease-induced declines in that region. Here, the authors suggest that an endemic strain of BD with low virulence may protect the hosts upon co-infection with more virulent strains.

The chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis has caused the most prominent loss of vertebrate diversity ever recorded, which peaked in the 1980s. Recent incursion by its sister species B. salamandrivorans in Europe raised the alarm for a new wave of declines and extinctions in western Palearctic urodeles. The European Commission has responded by restricting amphibian trade. However, private amphibian collections, the main end consumers, were exempted from the European legislation. Here, we report how invasion by a released, exotic newt coincided with B. salamandrivorans invasion at over 1000 km from the nearest natural outbreak site, causing mass mortality in indigenous marbled newts (Triturus marmoratus), and posing an acute threat to the survival of nearby populations of the most critically endangered European newt species (Montseny brook newt, Calotriton arnoldi). Disease management was initiated shortly after detection in a close collaboration between policy and science and included drastic on site measures and intensive disease surveillance. Despite these efforts, the disease is considered temporarily contained but not eradicated and continued efforts will be necessary to minimize the probability of further pathogen dispersal. This precedent demonstrates the importance of tackling wildlife diseases at an early stage using an integrated approach, involving all stakeholders and closing loopholes in existing regulations.

VH and AMO were supported by a Ramón y Cajal and Juan de la Cierva fellowship programs (RYC-201313979 and IJCI-2016-30349, respectively) and the project INMODES (CGL2017-89999-C2-2-R) funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation.SC was supported by the Research Foundation Flanders (FWO16/PDO/019).

Amphibians are among the most threatened vertebrates globally, and their conservation status continues to decline. In the updated Global Amphibian Assessment (GAA2), the use of IUCN Criterion E, which projects extinction risks through quantitative models, highlighted southern Europe as a hotspot for salamander extinction risk due to the risk of invasion by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal). In particular, for five Italian salamander species, risk categories were elevated significantly based on Criterion E, from Vulnerable or lower to Endangered or Critically Endangered. This increased reliance on Criterion E raises concerns regarding its treatment of uncertainty, as these projections depend heavily on assumptions about Bsal spread, environmental suitability, and host dynamics. Limited exploration of alternative scenarios and reliance on extreme parameter values may result in inflated extinction risk estimates. We emphasize the need for improved documentation of uncertainty and integration of diverse expert opinions in extinction risk assessments, to balance proactive conservation planning with robust scientific methodology.

Forecasting ecosystem changes due to disturbances or conservation interventions is essential to improve ecosystem management and anticipate unintended consequences of conservation decisions. Mathematical models allow practitioners to understand the potential effects and unintended consequences via simulation. However, calibrating these models is often challenging due to a paucity of appropriate ecological data. Ensemble ecosystem modelling (EEM) is a quantitative method used to parameterize models from theoretical ecosystem features rather than data. Two approaches have been considered to find parameter values satisfying those features: a standard accept–reject algorithm, appropriate for small ecosystem networks, and a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm that is more computationally efficient for larger ecosystem networks. In practice, using SMC for EEM generation requires advanced statistical and mathematical knowledge, as well as strong programming skills, which might limit its uptake. In addition, current EEM approaches have been developed for only one model structure (generalised Lotka–Volterra). To facilitate the usage of EEM methods, we introduce EEMtoolbox, an R package for calibrating quantitative ecosystem models. Our package allows the generation of parameter sets satisfying ecosystem features by using either the standard accept–reject algorithm or the novel SMC procedure. Our package extends the existing EEM methodology, originally developed for the generalised Lotka–Volterra model, to two additional model structures (the multispecies Gompertz and the Bimler–Baker model) and additionally allows users to define their own model structures. We demonstrate the usage of EEMtoolbox by simulating changes in species abundance immediately after the release of the sihek (Todiramphus cinnamominus, extinct‐in‐the‐wild species) on Palmyra Atoll in the Pacific Ocean. With its simple interface, our package facilitates straightforward generation of EEM parameter sets, thus unlocking advanced statistical methods supporting conservation decisions using ecosystem network models.

Urbanization affects streams by modifying hydrology, increasing pollution and disrupting in-stream and riparian conditions, leading to negative responses by biotic communities. Given the global trend of increasing urbanization, improved understanding of its direct and indirect effects at multiple scales is needed to assist management. The theory of stream ecology suggests that the riverscape and the surrounding landscape are inextricably linked, and watershed-scale processes will also affect in-stream conditions and communities. This is particularly true for species with semi-aquatic life cycles, such as amphibians, which transfer energy between streams and surrounding terrestrial areas. We related measures of urbanization at different scales to frog communities in streams along an urbanization gradient in Melbourne, Australia. We used boosted regression trees to determine the importance of predictors and the shape of species responses. We then used structural equation models to investigate possible indirect effects of watershed imperviousness on in-stream parameters. The proportion of riparian vegetation and road density surrounding the site at the reach scale (500-m radius) had positive and negative effects, respectively, on species richness and on the occurrence of the two most common species in the area (Criniasignifera and Limnodynastesdumerilii). Road density and local aquatic vegetation interacted in influencing species richness, suggesting that isolation of a site can prevent colonization, in spite of apparently good local habitat. Attenuated imperviousness at the catchment scale had a negative effect on local aquatic vegetation, indicating possible indirect effects on frog species not revealed by single-level models. Processes at the landscape scale, particularly related to individual ranging distances, can affect frog species directly and indirectly. Catchment imperviousness might not affect adult frogs directly, but by modifying hydrology it can disrupt local vegetation and prove indirectly detrimental. Integrating multiple-scale management actions may help to meet conservation targets for streams in the face of urbanization.

Emerging Infectious Diseases (EIDs) are recognised as global extinction drivers of threatened species. Unfortunately, biodiversity managers have few tested solutions to manage them when often the desperate need for solutions necessitates a response. Here we test in situ biosecurity protocols to assess the efficacy of managing Psittacine beak and feather disease (PBFD), one of the most common and emergent viral diseases in wild parrots (Psittaciformes) that is currently affecting numerous threatened species globally. In response to an outbreak of PBFD in Mauritius “echo” parakeets ( Psittacula eques ), managers implemented a set of biosecurity protocols to limit transmission and impact of Beak and feather disease virus (BFDV). Here we used a reciprocal design experiment on the wild population to test whether BFDV management reduced viral prevalence and viral load, and improved nestling body condition and fledge success. Whilst management reduced the probability of nestling infection by approximately 11% there was no observed impact on BFDV load and nestling body condition. In contrast to expectations there was lower fledge success in nests with added BFDV biosecurity (83% in untreated vs. 79% in treated nests). Our results clearly illustrate that management for wildlife conservation should be critically evaluated through targeted monitoring and experimental manipulation, and this evaluation should always focus on the fundamental objective of conservation.

Monitoring is needed to assess conservation success and improve management, but naïve or simplistic interpretation of monitoring data can lead to poor decisions. We illustrate how to counter this risk by combining decision‐support tools and quantitative counterfactual analysis. We analyzed 20 years of egg rescue for tara iti (Sternula nereis davisae) in Aotearoa New Zealand. Survival is lower for rescued eggs; however, only eggs perceived as imminently threatened by predators or weather are rescued, so concluding that rescue is ineffective would be biased. Equally, simply assuming all rescued eggs would have died if left in situ is likely to be simplistic. Instead, we used the monitoring data itself to estimate statistical support for a wide space of uncertain counterfactuals about decisions and fate of rescued eggs. Results suggest under past management, rescuing and leaving eggs would have led to approximately the same overall fledging rate, because of likely imperfect threat assessment and low survival of rescued eggs to fledging. Managers are currently working to improve both parameters. Our approach avoids both naïve interpretation of observed outcomes and simplistic assumptions that management is always justified, using the same data to obtain unbiased quantitative estimates of counterfactual support.