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Abrupt climate change is a striking feature of many climate records, particularly the warming events in Greenland ice cores. These abrupt and high-amplitude events were tightly coupled to rapid sea-ice retreat in the North Atlantic and Nordic Seas, and observational evidence shows they had global repercussions. In the present-day Arctic, sea-ice loss is also key to ongoing warming. This Perspective uses observations and climate models to place contemporary Arctic change into the context of past abrupt Greenland warmings. We find that warming rates similar to or higher than modern trends have only occurred during past abrupt glacial episodes. We argue that the Arctic is currently experiencing an abrupt climate change event, and that climate models underestimate this ongoing warming.In recent decades, the Arctic has warmed at over twice the global rate. This Perspective places these trends into the context of abrupt Dansgaard–Oeschger warming events in the palaeoclimate record, arguing that the contemporary Arctic is undergoing comparably abrupt climate change.

The Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 9e, occurring approximately from 335 to 320 ka, represents an important period for studying the dynamics of Earth's climate. Interest in studying this interglacial period stems from the fact that it is associated with the highest atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the last 800 ka (excluding anthropogenic CO2 emissions). Numerous reconstructions of sea surface temperatures (SST) cover this time interval, yet synthesizing them into consistent regional- and global-scale climate signals is challenging because they are scattered across the globe and based on heterogeneous chronological frameworks. In this study, we present the first spatio-temporal SST synthesis over the interval 350 to 300 ka, covering this interglacial period and its preceding deglaciation (Termination IV, ∼ 350 to ∼ 335 ka). We include 98 high-resolution SST reconstructions and we establish a common temporal framework between the selected marine records, based on the latest reference ice core chronology (AICC2023). We also homogenize the proxy-calibration strategy by applying a single method for each proxy. Chronological and calibration uncertainties are quantified using Bayesian and Monte Carlo procedures. Finally, through a Monte Carlo approach, we generate global- and regional-scale SST stacks relative to Pre-Industrial Era over Termination IV and MIS 9. We highlight significant differences in terms of temporal variability, amplitude, and timing of changes in the SST records across the globe over the studied time interval. While the patterns of SST changes are homogeneous at basin-scale, heterogeneous interglacial SST peaks are observed across ocean basins. The interglacial surface temperature peaks in extra-tropic basins are similar to or warmer than the pre-industrial period (PI), while intra-tropic areas appear to be colder relative to PI during interglacial optimum. In addition, the timing in interglacial surface temperature peaks differ across the different regions. These regional temperature variations suggest that atmospheric and oceanic dynamics played a greater role than global radiative forcing in shaping the MIS 9e climate. The heterogeneous timing of changes across the different regions contribute to a smoothed global-scale response in terms of both timing and amplitude. Consequently, we find that at a global scale MIS 9e SST was as warm as the PI (∼ −0.1 ± 0.2 °C). Converted into surface air temperatures (∼ −0.3 ± 0.3 °C), this estimate agrees within the uncertainty range with previous studies based on a smaller number of records with lower temporal resolution. We also compare our results on MIS 9e and Termination IV with published SST syntheses covering more recent interglacial periods (MIS 5e and Holocene) and deglacial periods (Termination I and II). We find that the global deglacial surface air warming during Termination IV is similar in amplitude (∼ 5.7 °C) to that observed during Terminations I and II. Finally, a comparison of deglacial warming rates for these three terminations to the warming trend of the last 60 years emphasizes that the rapidity of modern climate change is unprecedented within the context of these past deglaciations.

The EPICA (European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) Dome C (EDC) ice core drilling in East Antarctica reaches a depth of 3260 m. The reference EDC chronology, the AICC2012 (Antarctic Ice Core Chronology 2012), provides an age vs. depth relationship covering the last 800 kyr (thousands of years), with an absolute uncertainty rising up to 8000 years at the bottom of the ice core. The origins of this relatively large uncertainty are twofold: (1) the δ18Oatm, δO2/N2 and total air content (TAC) records are poorly resolved and show large gaps over the last 800 kyr, and (2) large uncertainties are associated with their orbital targets. Here, we present new highly resolved δ18Oatm, δO2/N2 and δ15N measurements for the EDC ice core covering the last five glacial–interglacial transitions; a new low-resolution TAC record over the period 440–800 ka BP (ka: 1000 years before 1950); and novel absolute 81Kr ages. We have compiled chronological and glaciological information including novel orbital age markers from new data on the EDC ice core as well as accurate firn modeling estimates in a Bayesian dating tool to construct the new AICC2023 chronology. For the first time, three orbital tools are used simultaneously. Hence, it is possible to observe that they are consistent with each other and with the other age markers over most of the last 800 kyr (70 %). This, in turn, gives us confidence in the new AICC2023 chronology. The average uncertainty in the ice chronology is reduced from 1700 to 900 years in AICC2023 over the last 800 kyr (1σ). The new timescale diverges from AICC2012 and suggests age shifts reaching 3800 years towards older ages over marine isotope stages (MISs) 5, 11 and 19. But the coherency between the new AICC2023 timescale and independent chronologies of other archives (Italian Lacustrine succession from Sulmona Basin, Dome Fuji ice core and northern Alpine speleothems) is improved by 1000 to 2000 years over these time intervals.

We report high resolution measurements of the stable isotope ratios of ancient ice ( δ 18 O, δ D) from the N orth Greenland Eem ian deep ice core (NEEM, 77.45° N, 51.06° E). The record covers the period 8–130 ky b2k (y before 2000) with a temporal resolution of ≈0.5 and 7 y at the top and the bottom of the core respectively and contains important climate events such as the 8.2 ky event, the last glacial termination and a series of glacial stadials and interstadials. At its bottom part the record contains ice from the Eemian interglacial. Isotope ratios are calibrated on the SMOW/SLAP scale and reported on the GICC05 (Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005) and AICC2012 (Antarctic Ice Core Chronology 2012) time scales interpolated accordingly. We also provide estimates for measurement precision and accuracy for both δ 18 O and δ D. Measurement(s) isotope analysis • water ice core Technology Type(s) cavity ring-down spectroscopy Factor Type(s) δ18O • δD Sample Characteristic - Location Greenland Ice Sheet Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.14216441

During the last glacial period, proxy records throughout the Northern Hemisphere document a succession of rapid millennial-scale warming events, called Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events. A range of different mechanisms has been proposed that can produce similar warming in model experiments; however, the progression and ultimate trigger of the events are still unknown. Because of their fast nature, the progression is challenging to reconstruct from paleoclimate data due to the limited temporal resolution achievable in many archives and cross-dating uncertainties between records. Here, we use new high-resolution multi-proxy records of sea-salt (derived from sea spray and sea ice over the North Atlantic) and terrestrial (derived from the central Asian deserts) aerosol concentrations over the period 10–60 ka from the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) and North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM) ice cores in conjunction with local precipitation and temperature proxies from the NGRIP ice core to investigate the progression of environmental changes at the onset of the warming events at annual to multi-annual resolution. Our results show on average a small lead of the changes in both local precipitation and terrestrial dust aerosol concentrations over the change in sea-salt aerosol concentrations and local temperature of approximately one decade. This suggests that, connected to the reinvigoration of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and the warming in the North Atlantic, both synoptic and hemispheric atmospheric circulation changes at the onset of the DO warming, affecting both the moisture transport to Greenland and the Asian monsoon systems. Taken at face value, this suggests that a collapse of the sea-ice cover may not have been the initial trigger for the DO warming.

Palaeoclimate model simulations are an important tool to improve our understanding of the mechanisms of climate change. These simulations also provide tests of the ability of models to simulate climates very different to today. Here we present the results from two brand-new simulations using the latest version of the UK's physical climate model, HadGEM3-GC3.1; they are the mid-Holocene (∼6 ka) and Last Interglacial (∼127 ka) simulations, both conducted under the auspices of CMIP6/PMIP4. This is the first time this version of the UK model has been used to conduct palaeoclimate simulations. These periods are of particular interest to PMIP4 because they represent the two most recent warm periods in Earth history, where atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases and continental configuration are similar to the pre-industrial period but where there were significant changes to the Earth's orbital configuration, resulting in a very different seasonal cycle of radiative forcing. Results for these simulations are assessed firstly against the same model's pre-industrial control simulation (a simulation comparison, to describe and understand the differences between the pre-industrial – PI – and the two palaeo simulations) and secondly against previous versions of the same model relative to newly available proxy data (a model–data comparison, to compare all available simulations from the same model with proxy data to assess any improvements due to model advances). The introduction of this newly available proxy data adds further novelty to this study. Globally, for metrics such as 1.5 m temperature and surface rainfall, whilst both the recent palaeoclimate simulations are mostly capturing the expected sign and, in some places, magnitude of change relative to the pre-industrial, this is geographically and seasonally dependent. Compared to newly available proxy data (including sea surface temperature – SST – and rainfall) and also incorporating data from previous versions of the model shows that the relative accuracy of the simulations appears to vary according to metric, proxy reconstruction used for comparison and geographical location. In some instances, such as mean rainfall in the mid-Holocene, there is a clear and linear improvement, relative to proxy data, from the oldest to the newest generation of the model. When zooming into northern Africa, a region known to be problematic for models in terms of rainfall enhancement, the behaviour of the West African monsoon in both recent palaeoclimate simulations is consistent with current understanding, suggesting a wetter monsoon during the mid-Holocene and (more so) the Last Interglacial, relative to the pre-industrial era. However, regarding the well-documented “Saharan greening” during the mid-Holocene, results here suggest that the most recent version of the UK's physical model is still unable to reproduce the increases suggested by proxy data, consistent with all other previous models to date.

The last deglaciation represents the most recent example of natural global warming associated with large-scale climate changes. In addition to the long-term global temperature increase, the last deglaciation onset is punctuated by a sequence of abrupt changes in the Northern Hemisphere. Such interplay between orbital- and millennial-scale variability is widely documented in paleoclimatic records but the underlying mechanisms are not fully understood. Limitations arise from the difficulty in constraining the sequence of events between external forcing, high- and low- latitude climate, and environmental changes. Greenland ice cores provide sub-decadal-scale records across the last deglaciation and contain fingerprints of climate variations occurring in different regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Here, we combine new ice d-excess and 17O-excess records, tracing changes in the midlatitudes, with ice δ18O records of polar climate. Within Heinrich Stadial 1, we demonstrate a decoupling between climatic conditions in Greenland and those of the lower latitudes. While Greenland temperature remains mostly stable from 17.5 to 14.7 ka, significant change in the midlatitudes of the northern Atlantic takes place at ∼16.2 ka, associated with warmer and wetter conditions of Greenland moisture sources. We show that this climate modification is coincident with abrupt changes in atmospheric CO2 and CH4 concentrations recorded in an Antarctic ice core. Our coherent ice core chronological framework and comparison with other paleoclimate records suggests a mechanism involving two-step freshwater fluxes in the North Atlantic associated with a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone.

The Mid-Pleistocene Transition (~1.2–0.8 million years) corresponds to a time interval when high-amplitude ~100,000 years glacial–interglacial cycles replaced the more subdued ~40,000 years glacial–interglacial cycles. Whether it was triggered by physical processes affecting the climate system at a specific time interval or more gradually over the course of the Pleistocene, is still an open question. Here we use an original approach based on conceptual modelling to identify the temporal structure of the Mid-Pleistocene Transition controlling factors. By comparing our new simulations of global ice volume changes with existing paleo-reconstructions over the past 2 million years, we find that it is more relevant to simulate the Mid-Pleistocene Transition with a gradual-rather-than-abrupt change in the climate system. Our results support the hypothesis that a progressive decrease in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations throughout the Pleistocene played a key role in triggering this major climatic transition.

The abrupt nature of warming events recorded in Greenland ice-cores during the last glacial has generated much debate over their underlying mechanisms. Here, we present joint marine and terrestrial analyses from the Portuguese Margin, showing a succession of cold stadials and warm interstadials over the interval 35–57 ka. Heinrich stadials 4 and 5 contain considerable structure, with a short transitional phase leading to an interval of maximum cooling and aridity, followed by slowly increasing sea-surface temperatures and moisture availability. A climate model experiment reproduces the changes in western Iberia during the final part of Heinrich stadial 4 as a result of the gradual recovery of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. What emerges is that Greenland ice-core records do not provide a unique template for warming events, which involved the operation of both fast and slow components of the coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea-ice system, producing adjustments over a range of timescales.Interstadial North Atlantic warming during the last glacial period involved the operation of both fast and slow components of the coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea-ice system, according to analyses from the Portuguese Margin and climate model simulations.

The last interglacial period (LIG, ∼ 129–116 thousand years ago) provides the most recent case study of multimillennial polar warming above the preindustrial level and a response of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to this warming, as well as a test bed for climate and ice sheet models. Past changes in Greenland ice sheet thickness and surface temperature during this period were recently derived from the North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM) ice core records, northwest Greenland. The NEEM paradox has emerged from an estimated large local warming above the preindustrial level (7.5 ± 1.8 °C at the deposition site 126 kyr ago without correction for any overall ice sheet altitude changes between the LIG and the preindustrial period) based on water isotopes, together with limited local ice thinning, suggesting more resilience of the real Greenland ice sheet than shown in some ice sheet models. Here, we provide an independent assessment of the average LIG Greenland surface warming using ice core air isotopic composition (δ15N) and relationships between accumulation rate and temperature. The LIG surface temperature at the upstream NEEM deposition site without ice sheet altitude correction is estimated to be warmer by +8.5 ± 2.5 °C compared to the preindustrial period. This temperature estimate is consistent with the 7.5 ± 1.8 °C warming initially determined from NEEM water isotopes but at the upper end of the preindustrial period to LIG temperature difference of +5.2 ± 2.3 °C obtained at the NGRIP (North Greenland Ice Core Project) site by the same method. Climate simulations performed with present-day ice sheet topography lead in general to a warming smaller than reconstructed, but sensitivity tests show that larger amplitudes (up to 5 °C) are produced in response to prescribed changes in sea ice extent and ice sheet topography.