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"Carlin, John"
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Rafa
A memoir from the tennis champion Rafael Nadal, revealing the secrets of his game and the personal story behind his success.
Book
“Identifying variables that independently predict…” is not a well-defined research task
•I highlight some difficulties in a review of “common mistakes” in epidemiological analysis.•The difficulties relate to the widespread use of regression methods without a clear purpose.•The popular aim of “identifying variables that independently predict” an outcome is ill-defined.•A structured “roadmap” is recommended to avoid mistakes in research design and analysis.
Journal Article
Mandela and the general
\"Will the Freedom Struggle End in a Bloodbath? Nelson Mandela, the anti-apartheid hero and first leader of the new South Africa, is an international symbol of the power of a popular movement to fight structural racism. But that nonviolent struggle for equality and justice very nearly spiraled into an all-out race war that would have only ended in \"the peace of graveyards.\" As the first post-apartheid elections approach in 1994, with South African blacks poised to take power, the nation's whites fear reprisal. White nationalist militias claiming 50,000 well-armed former soldiers stand ready to fight to the death to defend their cause. They need someone who can lead and unite them. That man is General Constand Viljoen, former chief of apartheid South Africa's military. Mandela knows that he can't avert a bloodbath on his own. He will have to count on his archenemy. Throughout those historic months, the two men meet in secret. Can they trust each other? Can they keep their followers and radical fringe elements from acts of violence? The mettle of these two men will determine the future of a nation. The drama of this contest and the history that pivoted on it comes vividly to life in visual form. Veteran British journalist John Carlin teams up with Catalan artist Oriol Malet to create a historically and artistically rich graphic novel with obvious relevance to today's polarized politics.\"--Provided by publisher.
BOOK
The prognosis of common mental disorders in adolescents: a 14-year prospective cohort study
Most adults with common mental disorders report their first symptoms before 24 years of age. Although adolescent anxiety and depression are frequent, little clarity exists about which syndromes persist into adulthood or resolve before then. In this report, we aim to describe the patterns and predictors of persistence into adulthood.
We recruited a stratified, random sample of 1943 adolescents from 44 secondary schools across the state of Victoria, Australia. Between August, 1992, and January, 2008, we assessed common mental disorder at five points in adolescence and three in young adulthood, commencing at a mean age of 15·5 years and ending at a mean age of 29·1 years. Adolescent disorders were defined on the Revised Clinical Interview Schedule (CIS-R) at five adolescent measurement points, with a primary cutoff score of 12 or higher representing a level at which a family doctor would be concerned. Secondary analyses addressed more severe disorders at a cutoff of 18 or higher.
236 of 821 (29%; 95% CI 25–32) male participants and 498 of 929 (54%; 51–57) female participants reported high symptoms on the CIS-R (≥12) at least once during adolescence. Almost 60% (434/734) went on to report a further episode as a young adult. However, for adolescents with one episode of less than 6 months duration, just over half had no further common mental health disorder as a young adult. Longer duration of mental health disorders in adolescence was the strongest predictor of clear-cut young adult disorder (odds ratio [OR] for persistent young adult disorder vs none 3·16, 95% CI 1·86–5·37). Girls (2·12, 1·29–3·48) and adolescents with a background of parental separation or divorce (1·62, 1·03–2·53) also had a greater likelihood of having ongoing disorder into young adulthood than did those without such a background. Rates of adolescent onset disorder dropped sharply by the late 20s (0·57, 0·45–0·73), suggesting a further resolution for many patients whose symptoms had persisted into the early 20s.
Episodes of adolescent mental disorder often precede mental disorders in young adults. However, many such disorders, especially when brief in duration, are limited to the teenage years, with further symptom remission common in the late 20s. The resolution of many adolescent disorders gives reason for optimism that interventions that shorten the duration of episodes could prevent much morbidity later in life.
Australia's National Health and Medical Research Council.
Journal Article
مانديلا والجنرال
إنه العام 1990، خرج نيلسون مانديلا من السجن بعد 27 عاما من الانعزال. تشوب جنوب إفريقيا حالات من التوتر العنيفة ما بين مناصري النظام المويد للتمييز العنصري وحزب المؤتمر الوطني الفريقي. ونجد مجموعات صغيرة من القوات المسلحة اليمينية تعمل بشكل منظم للحفاظ على السلطة. وهكذا، جرى التقرب من الجنرال المتقاعد فيلجوين لتوحيد هذه الميليشيات. وفي العاع 1993، تزعمها خلال اجتماع ذكر بأحلك ساعات النازية، وعرف هذا الاجتماع باجتماع بوتشيفستروم.
BOOK
The natural history of self-harm from adolescence to young adulthood: a population-based cohort study
Knowledge about the natural history of self-harm is scarce, especially during the transition from adolescence to young adulthood, a period characterised by a sharp rise in self-inflicted deaths. From a repeated measures cohort of a representative sample, we describe the course of self-harm from middle adolescence to young adulthood.
A stratified, random sample of 1943 adolescents was recruited from 44 schools across the state of Victoria, Australia, between August, 1992, and January, 2008. We obtained data pertaining to self-harm from questionnaires and telephone interviews at seven waves of follow-up, commencing at mean age 15·9 years (SD 0·49) and ending at mean age 29·0 years (SD 0·59). Summary adolescent measures (waves three to six) were obtained for cannabis use, cigarette smoking, high-risk alcohol use, depression and anxiety, antisocial behaviour and parental separation or divorce.
1802 participants responded in the adolescent phase, with 149 (8%) reporting self-harm, More girls (95/947 [10%]) than boys (54/855 [6%]) reported self-harm (risk ratio 1·6, 95% CI 1·2–2·2). We recorded a substantial reduction in the frequency of self-harm during late adolescence. 122 of 1652 (7%) participants who reported self-harm during adolescence reported no further self-harm in young adulthood, with a stronger continuity in girls (13/888) than boys (1/764). During adolescence, incident self-harm was independently associated with symptoms of depression and anxiety (HR 3·7, 95% CI 2·4–5·9), antisocial behaviour (1·9, 1·1–3·4), high-risk alcohol use (2·1, 1·2–3·7), cannabis use (2·4, 1·4–4·4), and cigarette smoking (1·8, 1·0–3·1). Adolescent symptoms of depression and anxiety were clearly associated with incident self-harm in young adulthood (5·9, 2·2–16).
Most self-harming behaviour in adolescents resolves spontaneously. The early detection and treatment of common mental disorders during adolescence might constitute an important and hitherto unrecognised component of suicide prevention in young adults.
National Health and Medical Research Council, Australia, and operational infrastructure support programme, Government of Victoria, Australia.
Journal Article
Dawn of the code war : America's battle against Russia, China, and the rising global cyber threat
\"Over the past decade, there have been a series of Internet-linked attacks on American interests, including North Korea's retaliatory hack of Sony Pictures, China's large-scale industrial espionage, Russia's 2016 propaganda campaign, and quite a lot more ... John Carlin has been on the frontlines of America's ongoing cyber war with its enemies. In this ... book, he tells the story of his years-long secret battle to keep America safe, and warns us of the perils that await us as we embrace the latest digital novelties--smart appliances, artificial intelligence, self-driving cars--with little regard for how our enemies might compromise them\"--Provided by publisher.
Book
Understanding Interventional Effects: A More Natural Approach to Mediation Analysis?
The causal mediation literature has mainly focused on “natural effects” as measures of mediation, but these have been criticized for their reliance on empirically unverifiable assumptions. They are also impossible to estimate without additional untestable assumptions in the common situation of exposure-induced mediator–outcome confounding. “Interventional effects” have been proposed as alternative measures that overcome these limitations, and 2 versions have been described for the exposure-induced confounding problem. We aim to provide insight into the interpretation of these effects, particularly by describing randomized controlled trials that could hypothetically be conducted to estimate them. In contrast with natural effects, which are defined in terms of individual-level interventions, the definitions of interventional effects rely on population-level interventions. This distinction underpins the previously described advantages of interventional effects, and reflects a shift from individual effects to more tangible population-average effects. We discuss the conceptual and practical implications for the conduct of mediation analysis. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B383.
Journal Article
A concise dictionary of the avant-gardes
\"For a concise edition of his legendary arts dictionary of information and opinion, the distinguished critic and arts historian Richard Kostelanetz selects entries from the 2018 third edition. Typically he provides intelligence unavailable anywhere else, no less in print than online, about a wealth of subjects and individuals. Focused upon what is truly innovative and excellent, Kostelanetz also ranges widely with insight and surprise, including appreciations of artistic athletes such as Muhammad Ali and the Harlem Globetrotters and such collective creations as Las Vegas and his native New York City. Continuing the traditions of cheeky high-style Dictionarysts, honoring Ambrose Bierce and Samuel Johnson (both with individual entries), Kostelanetz offers a \"reference book\" to be enjoyed, not only in bits and chunks but continuously as one of the ten books someone would take if he or she planned to be stranded on a desert isle.\"--Page i.
Book
A comparison of multiple imputation methods for missing data in longitudinal studies
Background
Multiple imputation (MI) is now widely used to handle missing data in longitudinal studies. Several MI techniques have been proposed to impute incomplete longitudinal covariates, including standard fully conditional specification (FCS-Standard) and joint multivariate normal imputation (JM-MVN), which treat repeated measurements as distinct variables, and various extensions based on generalized linear mixed models. Although these MI approaches have been implemented in various software packages, there has not been a comprehensive evaluation of the relative performance of these methods in the context of longitudinal data.
Method
Using both empirical data and a simulation study based on data from the six waves of the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (
N
= 4661), we investigated the performance of a wide range of MI methods available in standard software packages for investigating the association between child body mass index (BMI) and quality of life using both a linear regression and a linear mixed-effects model.
Results
In this paper, we have identified and compared 12 different MI methods for imputing missing data in longitudinal studies. Analysis of simulated data under missing at random (MAR) mechanisms showed that the generally available MI methods provided less biased estimates with better coverage for the linear regression model and around half of these methods performed well for the estimation of regression parameters for a linear mixed model with random intercept. With the observed data, we observed an inverse association between child BMI and quality of life, with available data as well as multiple imputation.
Conclusion
Both FCS-Standard and JM-MVN performed well for the estimation of regression parameters in both analysis models. More complex methods that explicitly reflect the longitudinal structure for these analysis models may only be needed in specific circumstances such as irregularly spaced data.
Journal Article