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Whether nature is valuable on its own (intrinsic values) or because of the benefits it provides to humans (instrumental values) has been a long-standing debate. The concept of relational values has been proposed as a solution to this supposed dichotomy, but the empirical validation of its intuitiveness remains limited. We experimentally assessed whether intrinsic/relational values of sentient beings/non-sentient beings/ecosystems better explain people’s sense of moral duty towards global nature conservation for the future. Participants from a representative sample of the population of Singapore (n = 1508) were randomly allocated to two “the last human” scenarios. We found that the best predictor of such a sense of moral duty for future nature conservation is the recognition of the intrinsic values of sentient beings. Our results suggest that the concern for animal welfare may enhance rather than compete with the sense of moral duty towards nature conservation.

The supposition that agricultural intensification results in land sparing for conservation has become central to policy formulations across the tropics. However, underlying assumptions remain uncertain and have been little explored in the context of conservation incentive schemes such as policies for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation, conservation, sustainable management, and enhancement of carbon stocks (REDD+). Incipient REDD+ forest carbon policies in a number of countries propose agricultural intensification measures to replace extensive \"slash-and-burn\" farming systems. These may result in conservation in some contexts, but will also increase future agricultural land rents as productivity increases, creating new incentives for agricultural expansion and deforestation. While robust governance can help to ensure land sparing, we propose that conservation incentives will also have to increase over time, tracking future agricultural land rents, which might lead to runaway conservation costs. We present a conceptual framework that depicts these relationships, supported by an illustrative model of the intensification of key crops in the Democratic Republic of Congo, a leading REDD+ country. A von Thünen land rent model is combined with geographic information systems mapping to demonstrate how agricultural intensification could influence future conservation costs. Once postintensification agricultural land rents are considered, the cost of reducing forest sector emissions could significantly exceed current and projected carbon credit prices. Our analysis highlights the importance of considering escalating conservation costs from agricultural intensification when designing conservation initiatives.

Illegal wildlife trade is one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. Understanding its economic value is a first step to establishing the magnitude of the problem. We develop a dataset of illegal wildlife trade prices and combine it with seizure data to estimate the economic value of illegal wildlife trade entering the USA. Using 2013 as a reference year, the results reveal that the economic value of illegal wildlife trade entering the USA was, using a conservative scenario where potential outliers were excluded, US $3.2 billion/year (uncertainty range (UR) 5th and 95th percentile of US$ 0.6–8.2 billion/year) and, without excluding potential outliers, US $4.3 billion/year (UR of US$ 1.3–9.6 billion/year). Our results for the USA alone are of a comparable magnitude to the lower bound of commonly used global estimates of the economic value of IWT of uncertain origin, suggesting that the global economic value of IWT is currently underestimated and requires an urgent revision.

Agriculture in Africa is rapidly expanding but with this comes potential disbenefits for the environment and human health. Here, we retrospectively assess whether childhood malaria in sub-Saharan Africa varies across differing agricultural land uses after controlling for socio-economic and environmental confounders. Using a multi-model inference hierarchical modelling framework, we found that rainfed cropland was associated with increased malaria in rural (OR 1.10, CI 1.03–1.18) but not urban areas, while irrigated or post flooding cropland was associated with malaria in urban (OR 1.09, CI 1.00–1.18) but not rural areas. In contrast, although malaria was associated with complete forest cover (OR 1.35, CI 1.24–1.47), the presence of natural vegetation in agricultural lands potentially reduces the odds of malaria depending on rural–urban context. In contrast, no associations with malaria were observed for natural vegetation interspersed with cropland (veg-dominant mosaic). Agricultural expansion through rainfed or irrigated cropland may increase childhood malaria in rural or urban contexts in sub-Saharan Africa but retaining some natural vegetation within croplands could help mitigate this risk and provide environmental co-benefits.

BackgroundResponsible for considerable global human morbidity and mortality, Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are the primary vectors of several important human diseases, including dengue and yellow fever. Although numerous variables that affect mosquito survival and reproduction have been recorded at the local and regional scales, many remain untested at the global level, potentially confounding mapping efforts to date.MethodsWe develop a modelling ensemble of boosted regression trees and maximum entropy models using sets of variables previously untested at the global level to examine their performance in predicting the global distribution of these two vectors. The results show that accessibility, absolute humidity and annual minimum temperature are consistently the strongest predictors of mosquito presence. Both vectors are similar in their response to accessibility and humidity, but exhibit individual profiles for temperature. Their mapped ranges are therefore similar except at peripheral latitudes, where the range of Ae. albopictus extends further, a finding consistent with ongoing trapping studies. We show that variables previously identified as being relevant, including maximum and mean temperatures, enhanced vegetation index, relative humidity and population density, are comparatively weak performers.ResultsThe variables identified represent three key biological mechanisms. Cold tolerance is a critical biological parameter, controlling both species’ distribution northwards, and to a lesser degree for Ae. albopictus which has consequent greater inland suitability in North America, Europe and East Asia. Absolute humidity restricts the distribution of both vectors from drier areas, where moisture availability is very low, and increases their suitability in coastal areas. The latter is exacerbated by accessibility with increased likelihood of vector importation due to greater potential for human and trade movement.ConclusionAccessibility, absolute humidity and annual minimum temperatures were the strongest and most robust global predictors of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus presence, which should be considered in control efforts and future distribution projections.

Habitat loss for food production is a key threat to global biodiversity. Despite the importance of dietary choices on our capacity to mitigate the on-going biodiversity crisis, unlike with specific ingredients or products, consumers have limited information on the biodiversity implications of choosing to eat a certain popular dish. Here we estimated the biodiversity footprints of 151 popular local dishes from around the world when globally and locally produced and after calorical content standardization. We find that specific ingredients (beef, legumes, rice) encroaching on biodiversity hotspots with already very high agricultural pressure (e.g. India) lead to high biodiversity footprint in the dishes. Examples of high-biodiversity-footprint popular dishes were beef dishes such as fraldinha (beef cut dish) originating from Brazil and legume dishes such as chana masala (chickpea curry) from India. Regardless of assuming locally or globally produced, feedlot or pasture livestock production, vegan and vegetarian dishes presented lower biodiversity footprints than dishes containing meat. Our results demonstrate the feasibility of analysing biodiversity footprint at the dish level across multiple countries, making sustainable eating decisions more accessible to consumers.

Prioritizing conservation interventions based on their cost‐effectiveness may enhance global conservation impact. To do this prioritization, conservation decision‐makers need evidence of what works where and how much it costs. Yet, the size, representativeness, and strength of the cost‐effectiveness evidence base are unknown. We reviewed conservation cost‐effectiveness studies, exploring the representation of different types of conservation interventions, habitats and locations, and the methods used. Studies were included if they were published in conservation science or related fields before 2017; were peer‐reviewed; reported costs and conservation‐effectiveness or ratios; and were based on empirical data. From an initial search of 13,184 articles, 91 were considered eligible. We found that the number of cost‐effectiveness studies were growing but remain small. Many common conservation interventions were poorly represented, and there were large geographical biases, with few studies in the world's more biodiverse regions. This sparse and patchy evidence may result from challenges faced when conducting cost‐effectiveness analysis. However, some of these challenges are not unique to cost‐effectiveness studies, and others could be overcome through the use of standardized reporting methods. The reward for overcoming these challenges, and strengthening the evidence base, could be a significant and much‐needed improvement in global conservation.

Aim The ecosystem functions and services of coral reefs are critical for coastal communities worldwide. Due to conservation resource limitation, species need to be prioritized to protect desirable properties of biodiversity, such as functional diversity (FD), which has been associated with greater ecosystem functioning but is difficult to quantify directly. Selecting species to maximize phylogenetic diversity (PD) has been shown to indirectly capture FD in certain other taxa but not corals. Here, we test this hypothesis, the “phylogenetic gambit”, on corals within global marine protected areas (MPAs). Location Global coral reefs. Methods Based on the global distributions of reef corals, a complete species‐level phylogeny and trait data, we compared the FD of coral assemblages within MPAs when selected to maximize PD versus FD for assemblages selected randomly. The relationships between PD and FD were also tested as predictors of surrogacy. We then used coral FD and PD to perform spatial prioritization of reefs for protection and assessed the congruence between the two approaches. Results Selecting assemblages to maximize PD captured significantly more FD than a random subset of species for 83.1% of all selection scenarios across MPAs and would protect on average 18.7% more FD than random selection. Spatial prioritization analyses showed some mismatches between PD‐ and FD‐optimized planning units, particularly in the Tropical Western Atlantic, but the high degree of overlap between the optimizations for other reef regions lends further credence to the PD‐maximizing strategy in conserving coral FD. Main Conclusions A PD‐maximizing strategy generally protects greater FD of coral assemblages relative to random selection of species, suggesting that the “phylogenetic gambit” is valid for reef corals. There are risks, however, and the mismatches between PD‐maximized and FD‐maximized MPA networks highlight specific shortcomings of the PD‐maximization approach. Nevertheless, in data‐deficient circumstances, maximizing PD may provide a viable alternative.

Effective conservation planning needs to consider the threats of cropland expansion to biodiversity. We used Myanmar as a case study to devise a modeling framework to identify which Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) are most vulnerable to cropland expansion in a context of increasingly resolved armed conflict. We studied 13 major crops with the potential to expand into KBAs. We used mixed-effects models and an agricultural versus forest rent framework to model current land use and conversion of forests to cropland for each crop. We found that the current cropland distribution is explained by higher agricultural value, lower transportation costs and lower elevation. We also found that protected areas and socio-political instability are effective in slowing down deforestation with conflicts in Myanmar damaging farmland and displacing farmers elsewhere. Under plausible economic development and socio-political stability scenarios, the models forecast 48.5% of land to be converted. We identified export crops such as maize, and pigeon pea as key deforestation drivers. This cropland expansion would pose a major threat to Myanmar’s freshwater KBAs. We highlight the importance of considering rapid land-use transitions in the tropics to devise robust conservation plans.

Globally, illegal and unsustainable wildlife trade can drive biodiversity loss. Understanding which product attributes consumers consider when deciding between products of threatened species or alternatives, is key for conservation interventions. Labeled Discrete Choice Experiments (DCEs) are underutilized in wildlife trade literature but can aid this understanding. In labeled DCEs, the alternatives presented to respondents have specific names (e.g., paracetamol) as opposed to being generic bundles (e.g., option A). We used a labeled DCE to assess young adult preferences toward “cooling water” used to treat fever and heatiness (a traditional Chinese medicine state of illness) in Singapore. One popular cooling water contains saiga horn, made from Critically Endangered Saiga tatarica antelope. Data from 639 university‐enrolled respondents were analyzed using latent class models. Middle‐ to high‐income Chinese Singaporeans were the respondents most likely to choose saiga horn. Overall, however, respondents significantly preferred lower price products sold in nearby outlets—suggesting that for young adults in Singapore, saiga horn cooling water may be substitutable if its physical and financial availability is reduced. Using a technique originally developed in marketing, we assessed which product attributes (e.g., price, flavor) most influenced young adult Singaporeans decision to purchase medicinal drinks made either from threatened saiga antelope horn or more sustainable alternatives. We found that, overall, affordability and convenience were more important to consumers than preference for a particular drink, including saiga horn. These findings suggest saiga horn drinks may be substitutable for this audience.